The history of workforce concerns in pediatric pulmonary Medicine

Child Health and the Pediatric Pulmonology Workforce: 2020-2040

There is concern as to whether the supply of pediatric pulmonology (PULM) subspecialists will be adequate to meet future demand. As part of an American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) Foundation-sponsored supplement investigating the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce, this article assesses the current PULM clinical workforce and estimates the clinical workforce supply in the United States through 2040. The current workforce was assessed using ABP certification and Maintenance of Certification data, and a workforce supply model evaluating population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends was developed after incorporating ABP data. Findings demonstrate that the number of pediatric pulmonologists has gradually increased over the past decade, and the ratio of subspecialists to children is likely to increase another 20% to 40% over the next 2 decades, although absolute numbers remain small. Geographic variation in access will persist in some regions. The proportion of women in the discipline has increased, but the proportion of pediatric pulmonologists from underrepresented in medicine backgrounds still lags behind the general population. Based on current trends, the PULM clinical workforce appears equipped to meet both population growth and the modest increase in demand for clinical services speculated to occur because of changes in the subspecialty's clinical portfolio. However, several factors could inhibit growth, and geographic maldistribution may continue to impact care access. Efforts to address variation in access and demographic diversity in the field are warranted. This article concludes by discussing the training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented.

Pediatric Pulmonary Fellowship Program Size Effect on Recruitment and Workforce Distribution

Background

Concerns about the pediatric pulmonology workforce suggest a need to improve fellowship recruitment. Program size is related to the financial health and recruitment success of pediatric subspecialty education programs, but there are few data on how program size impacts recruitment and workforce in pediatric pulmonology.

Objective

Assess the impact of program size in pediatric pulmonology through examination of the distribution of applicants matching into pediatric pulmonology training programs over time and relationships to workforce distribution.

Methods

Data from the National Residency Match Program from 2010 to 2022 were extracted from published documents. Positions offered, positioned filled, and match rates were calculated for each appointment year. Statewide statistics for the number of fellows matched were analyzed relative to the number of pediatric pulmonologists per capita using data from the American Board of Pediatrics.

Results

From 2010 to 2018, the size and distribution of programs in pediatric pulmonology were stable, with most fellows (82.4%) matching into programs with one or two positions per cycle. Starting in 2019, programs offering three or more positions steadily increased in number and aggregate positions offered. This change was associated with an increase in total filled positions (38.9 ± 7.3 in 2010-2018 vs. 50.5 ± 8.7 in 2019-2022; P < 0.03) and an increased fraction who matched into larger programs (17.6% in 2010-2018 vs. 36.9% in 2019-2022; P < 0.001). Among states with fellowship programs, the number of fellows matched over the past 5 years correlated with the number of practicing pediatric pulmonologists per capita (r = 0.78; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

The period 2019-2022 saw a marked shift of pediatric pulmonary trainees matching into a relatively small number of larger programs. This shift was associated with overall growth in the number of trainees but may have implications on geographical distribution of practicing pediatric pulmonologists.