The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal migration in Germany: A descriptive analysis

Internal migration following adverse life events: Assessing the likelihood of return migration and migration toward family

There are well-documented associations between life course changes and migration; yet, the occurrence, order, and timing of reasons for migrating are growing increasingly diverse. Migration following adverse life events, such as a divorce or an involuntary job loss, may be qualitatively distinct from migration undertaken for other reasons. Moves, especially long-distance moves, following adverse life events, may be defined more by seeking family and familiar locations. Moreover, a heightened probability of migration may occur not only immediately after an adverse life event but also in the years after. We explore these questions in the US context with longitudinal data from the 1983 to 2019 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which provides information on residential locations, locations of family members, and adverse life events for individuals over time. We focus on five specific events: divorce, the death of a spouse, involuntary job loss, the onset of a chronic physical health condition, and the onset of a chronic mental health condition. Using multivariate regression, we find that divorce and job loss induce long-distance moves, especially return moves and moves towards family. Chronic physical conditions deter moving in general but increase the chances of return moves (after a period of time) and moves towards family. These results have implications for understanding migration as a response to adverse life events, both immediately and over time.

The end of urban sprawl? Internal migration across the rural-urban continuum in Switzerland, 1966-2018

In high-income countries, migration redistributed populations from congested city centres into the sparsely populated outskirts, raising challenges to environmental and population health and the conservation of biodiversity. We evaluate whether this periurbanisation process came to a halt in Switzerland by expecting a decline in internal migration and a renewed residential attractiveness of urban agglomeration centres (i.e., re-urbanisation)-two recent trend changes observed in Europe. Relying on data from censuses, registers and surveys, we describe trends in the intensity, geography and sociodemographic differentials of migration across consistently defined urban agglomeration density zones between 1966 and 2018. Although the overall intensity of migration declined, the rate increased among the working age population in part because of the societal diffusion of tertiary education. The dominant urban-bound migration flows are increasingly confined within agglomerations over time. After the diffusion of periurbanisation down the city hierarchy between 1966 and 1990, we observe the emergence of re-urbanisation in some agglomerations and sociodemographic groups around 2000. However, this phenomenon has been temporarily inflated by period-specific transformations in Swiss society. More recently, the process of periurbanisation intensified again and expanded more and more beyond official agglomeration borders.

Tolerance for Housing Unaffordability among Highly Skilled Young Migrants: Evidence from the Zhejiang Province of China

Many studies have concluded that, since housing pressure affects the mobility of highly skilled young migrants (HSYMs) in Chinese cities and regions, it is necessary to apply corresponding housing policies to adjust housing unaffordability for HYSM. This study uses data from a survey conducted in China's Zhejiang Province, where specific policies have been implemented to attract talent. We found that housing crowds out HSYM from a city, but that the HSYM who have a master's degree or above, or who work in government organizations or state-owned enterprises, are more tolerant of housing unaffordability. Those who are unmarried or those staying in the city for a long period are less tolerant of housing unaffordability. Meanwhile, different factors have heterogeneous impacts on the HSYMs' tolerance for housing unaffordability across cities of different levels. Therefore, housing policies should highlight urban differences and intra-group differences, and more housing land should be provided to attract talent.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal migration in Germany: A descriptive analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies, labor markets, health care, education and tourism around the globe in unprecedented ways. However, little research has yet been devoted to the impact that the pandemic might have had on internal migration. This study aims to address this gap by determining how the intensity and spatial patterns of internal migration changed between 2019 and 2020 in Germany. We draw on data from the population register on annual flows between 401 counties. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 5% drop in the intensity of inter-county migration in 2020 compared to the previous year, with significant variation across age. The pandemic was also associated with an upsurge in net migration losses for the largest cities, driven by fewer inflows of young adults and continuing outflows of families.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal migration in Germany: A descriptive analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies, labor markets, health care, education and tourism around the globe in unprecedented ways. However, little research has yet been devoted to the impact that the pandemic might have had on internal migration. This study aims to address this gap by determining how the intensity and spatial patterns of internal migration changed between 2019 and 2020 in Germany. We draw on data from the population register on annual flows between 401 counties. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 5% drop in the intensity of inter-county migration in 2020 compared to the previous year, with significant variation across age. The pandemic was also associated with an upsurge in net migration losses for the largest cities, driven by fewer inflows of young adults and continuing outflows of families.

Has the decline in the intensity of internal migration been accompanied by changes in reasons for migration?

The last few decades have seen the intensity of internal migration decline in Australia and other advanced economies including the United States. Recent evidence suggests that changes in the composition of the population alone do not account for this persistent downward trend. This has led migration scholars to suspect that more profound behavioural changes driven by social, economic, and technological transformations are at play and that shifts in migration behaviour are likely to be reflected in changes in reasons for migration. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey to shed new light on the factors driving the decline in internal migration in Australia between 2002 and 2018. This is done by examining annual trends in self-reported reasons for intrastate and interstate migration and applying a series of pooled logistic regressions. Results reveal a decline across all reasons for migration, and not only employment-related migration contrary to explanations proposed in the extant literature. The decline in employment-related migration does not appear to be the result of a rise in alternative forms of mobility such as teleworking or substitution with inter-industry or occupation mobility. Furthermore, we also find that the negative effect of duration of residence has increased for family-related migration. Collectively, these findings suggest that behavioural change, particularly increased place attachment, may have contributed to the decline in internal migration.

Long-Term Impact of Interregional Migrants on Population Prediction

Japan is becoming depopulated, with declining fertility rates and massive urban agglomeration due to emigrations from rural areas, which results in rural–urban disparities. As demographic and social divisions between rural and urban areas increase, maintenance of infrastructure and social facilities becomes much more difficult. For social and demographic sustainability, accurate predictions of long-term population distributions are needed. This study improves the Cohort Component Analysis (CCA) into two aspects of “dependent structure” in the model system. The migration sub-model is expanded to include related structures between available job opportunities and the available workforce in each region, which are specified using the spatial autoregressive model. The advantage of the improved CCA to provides rational future projections by considering the longitudinal changes in the spatial distribution of the workforce. The simulation of the proposed model gives an alternative long-term impact of population distribution in Japan, which is compared with the conventional CCA. The results show that the future Japanese populations will become more concentrated in urban areas, with a lower fertility rate. Furthermore, the manufacturing employees will be attracted to metropolitan areas or to regions with industrial zones, and that the number of retailers will undergo changes over time, even in urbanized areas.

Environmental and Economic Factors of Migration from Urban to Rural Areas: Evidence from Poland

The net migration rate is highly diversified and noticeable chiefly in municipalities directly adjacent to large cities. This trend is still maintained in Poland and is now becoming even more visible than previously. Most of the studies conducted to date have not focused on extracting economic and environmental factors or determining the role of individual factors in those decisions. Furthermore, they have not analysed the issue of differences in motives and directions of migration. Thus, the aim of the research was to establish the factors that determine contemporary migrations from the city to suburban areas and to outline the role of economic and environmental factors. For this purpose, 164 interviews were conducted with individuals who had migrated from the city to the countryside surrounding one of the most important urban centres in Central Europe—Wrocław. In the research, the multiple snowball sampling technique was used. It was found that the factors with the most significant impact on the decision to move from the city to the countryside were those of an environmental nature, whereas the selection of a specific location (village) was to a greater extent determined by economic factors. Compared to their previous place of residence, the respondents most positively rated the environmental benefits of living in the countryside, whereas economic factors, especially insufficient sewage and energy infrastructure, in addition to poor services and transport, were downvoted. The results therefore imply the need for better planning of suburban settlement patterns that takes account of the availability and development of the infrastructure network. The settlement dispersion, as shown through spatial studies, leads to higher unit costs, which generate higher public services costs and thus increasing local expenditures.