Adjusting for bias in the mean for primary and secondary outcomes when trials are in sequence

Rycal S48168 (ARM210) for RYR1-related myopathies: a phase one, open-label, dose-escalation trial

Background

RYR1-related myopathies (RYR1-RM) are caused by pathogenic variants in the RYR1 gene which encodes the type 1 ryanodine receptor (RyR1). RyR1 is the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) calcium release channel that mediates excitation-contraction coupling in skeletal muscle. RyR1 sub-conductance, SR calcium leak, reduced RyR1 expression, and oxidative stress often contribute to RYR1-RM pathogenesis. Loss of RyR1-calstabin1 association, SR calcium leak, and increased RyR1 open probability were observed in 17 RYR1-RM patient skeletal muscle biopsies and improved following ex vivo treatment with Rycal compounds. Thus, we initiated a first-in-patient trial of Rycal S48168 (ARM210) in ambulatory adults with genetically confirmed RYR1-RM.

Methods

Participants received 120 mg (n = 3) or 200 mg (n = 4) S48168 (ARM210) daily for 29 days. The primary endpoint was safety and tolerability. Exploratory endpoints included S48168 (ARM210) pharmacokinetics (PK), target engagement, motor function measure (MFM)-32, hand grip and pinch strength, timed functional tests, PROMIS fatigue scale, semi-quantitative physical exam strength measurements, and oxidative stress biomarkers. The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04141670) and was conducted at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center between October 28, 2019 and December 12, 2021.

Findings

S48168 (ARM210) was well-tolerated, did not cause any serious adverse events, and exhibited a dose-dependent PK profile. Three of four participants who received the 200 mg/day dose reported improvements in PROMIS-fatigue at 28 days post-dosing, and also demonstrated improved proximal muscle strength on physical examination.

Interpretation

S48168 (ARM210) demonstrated favorable safety, tolerability, and PK, in RYR1-RM affected individuals. Most participants who received 200 mg/day S48168 (ARM210) reported decreased fatigue, a key symptom of RYR1-RM. These results set the foundation for a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled proof of concept trial to determine efficacy of S48168 (ARM210) in RYR1-RM.

Funding

NINDS and NINR Intramural Research Programs, NIH Clinical Center Bench to Bedside Award (2017-551673), ARMGO Pharma Inc., and its development partner Les Laboratoires Servier.

Efficacy and tolerability of an endogenous metabolic modulator (AXA1125) in fatigue-predominant long COVID: a single-centre, double-blind, randomised controlled phase 2a pilot study

Background

'Long COVID' describes persistent symptoms, commonly fatigue, lasting beyond 12 weeks following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Potential causes include reduced mitochondrial function and cellular bioenergetics. AXA1125 has previously increased β-oxidation and improved bioenergetics in preclinical models along with certain clinical conditions, and therefore may reduce fatigue associated with Long COVID. We aimed to assess the efficacy, safety and tolerability of AXA1125 in Long COVID.

Methods

Patients with fatigue-dominant Long COVID were recruited in this single-centre, double-blind, randomised controlled phase 2a pilot study completed in the UK. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using an Interactive Response Technology to receive either AXA1125 or matching placebo in a clinical-based setting. Each dose (33.9 g) of AXA1125 or placebo was administered orally in a liquid suspension twice daily for four weeks with a two-week follow-up period. The primary endpoint was the mean change from baseline to day 28 in the phosphocreatine (PCr) recovery rate following moderate exercise, assessed by ³¹P-magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). All patients were included in the intention to treat analysis. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05152849.

Findings

Between December 15th 2021, and May 23th 2022, 60 participants were screened, and 41 participants were randomised and included in the final analysis. Changes in skeletal muscle phosphocreatine recovery time constant (τ_PCr) and 6-min walk test (6MWT) did not significantly differ between treatment (n = 21) and placebo group (n = 20). However, treatment with AXA1125 was associated with significantly reduced day 28 Chalder Fatigue Questionnaire [CFQ-11] fatigue score when compared with placebo (least squares mean difference [LSMD] -4.30, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) -7.14, -1.47; P = 0.0039). Eleven (52.4%, AXA1125) and four (20.0%, placebo) patients reported treatment-emergent adverse events; none were serious or led to treatment discontinuation.

Interpretation

Although treatment with AXA1125 did not improve the primary endpoint (τ_PCr-measure of mitochondrial respiration), when compared to placebo, there were significant improvements in fatigue-based symptoms among patients living with Long COVID following a four-week treatment period. Further multicentre studies are needed to validate our findings in a larger cohort of patients with fatigue-dominant Long COVID.

Funding

Axcella Therapeutics.

Combining evidence from clinical trials in conditional or accelerated approval

Conditional (European Medicines Agency) or accelerated (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) approval of drugs allows earlier access to promising new treatments that address unmet medical needs. Certain post-marketing requirements must typically be met in order to obtain full approval, such as conducting a new post-market clinical trial. We study the applicability of the recently developed harmonic mean χ 2 $$ {\chi}^2 $$ -test to this conditional or accelerated approval framework. The proposed approach can be used both to support the design of the post-market trial and the analysis of the combined evidence provided by both trials. Other methods considered are the two-trials rule, Fisher's criterion and Stouffer's method. In contrast to some of the traditional methods, the harmonic mean χ 2 $$ {\chi}^2 $$ -test always requires a post-market clinical trial. If the p $$ p $$ -value from the pre-market clinical trial is ≪ 0.025 $$ \ll 0.025 $$ , a smaller sample size for the post-market clinical trial is needed than with the two-trials rule. For illustration, we apply the harmonic mean χ 2 $$ {\chi}^2 $$ -test to a drug which received conditional (and later full) market licensing by the EMA. A simulation study is conducted to study the operating characteristics of the harmonic mean χ 2 $$ {\chi}^2 $$ -test and two-trials rule in more detail. We finally investigate the applicability of these two methods to compute the power at interim of an ongoing post-market trial. These results are expected to aid in the design and assessment of the required post-market studies in terms of the level of evidence required for full approval.

An investigation of the constancy of effect in Cochrane systematic reviews in context with the assumptions for noninferiority trials

When designing a noninferiority (NI) study one of the most important steps is to set the noninferiority (NI) limit. The NI limit is an acceptable loss of efficacy for a new investigative treatment compared to an active control treatment - often standard care. The limit should be a value so small that the loss efficacy is clinically zero. An approach to the setting of a noninferiority limit such that an effect over placebo can be shown through an indirect comparison to placebo-controlled trials where the active control treatment was compared to placebo. In this context, the setting of the NI limit depends on three assumptions: assay sensitivity, bias minimisation, and the constancy assumption. The last assumption of constancy assumes the effect of the active control over placebo is constant. This paper aims to assess the constancy assumption in placebo-controlled trials.

METHODS

236 Cochrane reviews of placebo-controlled trials published in 2015-2016 were collected and used to assess the relation between the placebo, active treatment, and the standardised treatment different (SMD) with the time (year of publication).

RESULTS

The analysis showed that both the size of the study and the treatment effect were associated with year of publication. The three main variables that affect the estimate of any future trial are the estimate from the meta-analysis of previous trials prior to the trial, the year difference in the meta-analysis, and the year of the trial conduction. The regression analysis showed that an increase of one unit in the point estimate of the historical meta-analysis would lead to an increase in the predicted estimate of future trial on the SMD scale by 0.88. This result suggests the final trial results are 12% smaller than that from the meta-analysis of trials until that point.

CONCLUSION

The result of this study indicates that assuming constancy of the treatment difference between the active control and placebo can be questioned. It is therefore important to consider the effect of time in estimating the treatment response if indirect comparisons are being used as the basis of a NI limit.