Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHeffield ELicitation Framework extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case study

Sample size calculation in clinical trials with two co-primary endpoints including overdispersed count and continuous outcomes

Count outcomes are collected in clinical trials for new drug development in several therapeutic areas and the event rate is commonly used as a single primary endpoint. Count outcomes that are greater than the mean value are termed overdispersion; thus, count outcomes are assumed to have a negative binomial distribution. However, in clinical trials for treating asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a regulatory agency has suggested that a continuous endpoint related to lung function must be evaluated as a primary endpoint in addition to the event rate. The two co-primary endpoints that need to be evaluated include overdispersed count and continuous outcomes. Some researchers have proposed sample size calculation methods in the context of co-primary endpoints for various outcome types. However, methodologies for sample size calculation in trials with two co-primary endpoints, including overdispersed count and continuous outcomes, required when planning clinical trials for treating asthma and COPD, remain to be proposed. In this study, we aimed to develop a hypothesis-testing method and a corresponding sample size calculation method with two co-primary endpoints including overdispersed count and continuous outcomes. In a simulation, we demonstrated that the proposed sample size calculation method has adequate power accuracy. In addition, we illustrated an application of the proposed sample size calculation method to a placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial for patients with COPD.

A New Comprehensive Approach to Assess the Probability of Success of Development Programs Before Pivotal Trials

The point at which clinical development programs transition from early phase to pivotal trials is a critical milestone. Substantial uncertainty about the outcome of pivotal trials may remain even after seeing positive early phase data, and companies may need to make difficult prioritization decisions for their portfolio. The probability of success (PoS) of a program, a single number expressed as a percentage reflecting the multitude of risks that may influence the final program outcome, is a key decision-making tool. Despite its importance, companies often rely on crude industry benchmarks that may be "adjusted" by experts based on undocumented criteria and which are typically misaligned with the definition of success used to drive commercial forecasts, leading to overly optimistic expected net present value calculations. We developed a new framework to assess the PoS of a program before pivotal trials begin. Our definition of success encompasses the successful outcome of pivotal trials, regulatory approval and meeting the requirements for market access as outlined in the target product profile. The proposed approach is organized in four steps and uses an innovative Bayesian approach to synthesize all relevant evidence. The new PoS framework is systematic and transparent. It will help organizations to make more informed decisions. In this paper, we outline the rationale and elaborate on the structure of the proposed framework, provide examples, and discuss the benefits and challenges associated with its adoption.