Post-discharge thrombosis and bleeding in medical patients: A novel risk score derived from ubiquitous biomarkers

Predicting post-discharge venous thromboembolism and bleeding among medical patients: External validation of a novel risk score utilizing ubiquitous biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Post-hospitalization thromboprophylaxis can reduce venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk for non-surgical patients but may carry bleeding risks. We aimed to externally validate the Intermountain Risk Scores for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE IMRS) and major bleeding (HA-MB IMRS) for VTE and bleeding outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of adult patients discharged alive from medical services between 2015 and 2019. HA-VTE IMRS and HA-MB IMRS were calculated at the time of hospital discharge and dichotomized as high- or low-risk as described in the derivation manuscript. 90-day post-discharge VTE outcomes were assessed from diagnostic radiology reports, and bleeding outcomes were assessed using ICD-10 codes and blood bank transfusion records.

RESULTS

Among 113,578 patients in the study, 66,340 patients (58.4 %) had a low-risk HA-VTE IMRS <7, versus 47,238 (41.6 %) high-risk ≥7. For bleed prediction, 71,576 patients (63 %) had a low-risk HA-MB IMRS <8, versus 42,002 (37 %) high-risk ≥8. VTE incidence was 1.1 % and 0.6 % while major bleeding incidence was 1.3 % and 0.1 % in high-risk versus low-risk cohorts, respectively. AUCs for VTE and bleed outcome discrimination were 0.59 and 0.78, respectively. Patients with a combined high-risk VTE score and low-risk bleeding score comprised 14.5 % of the population.

CONCLUSION

In this external validation study, the HA-VTE IMRS had poor discrimination for VTE but the HA-MB IMRS had good discriminatory ability for major bleeding events. A sizable minority of patients were categorized as high VTE risk with low bleed risk, a population which may have an optimal risk-benefit profile for post-hospital thromboprophylaxis.

Readmission After COVID-19 for Late Acute Venous Thrombosis; CASE SERIES and Systematic Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVE

Assess heterogeneity within patients with resolved COVID-19 to broaden the vision about post-discharge thrombotic cases and postulate possible related mechanisms in search of better anticoagulation guidelines. This study details patients' characteristics, medical history, treatment, and outcomes of readmitted patients with late acute thrombosis through a systematic review of the literature and patients from our academic center database.

METHODS

We extracted the records of patients readmitted for venous thrombosis complications after discharge from the database of the first 2000 patients admitted with COVID-19 in our academic center; we also performed a systematic review of the literature using the Medical Subject Headings terms "late thrombosis," "COVID-19," + "venous thrombosis" in PubMed and Google Scholar according to PRISMA guideline.

RESULTS

The literature review found 20 patients suitable for review matching the inclusion criteria. These patients were added to those in our database, summing up a total of 26 patients. The median age was 50 years old, 76.9% were male, and most were overweight or had grade 1 obesity (n = 11, 42.3%). None had a previous thrombotic history, but 50% had an underlying comorbidity. Thrombotic events presented on a median of 20 days (range: 4-150 days) from discharge. Pulmonary embolisms occurred in 23 patients (88.46%), deep vein thrombosis in 4, mesenteric thrombosis, and cerebral venous thrombosis in 1, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study found that most patients readmitted for thrombotic events after COVID-19 discharge were middle-aged men with Venous Thrombo Embolism events.

Biomarker derived risk scores predict venous thromboembolism and major bleeding among patients with COVID-19

Background

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk is increased in patients with COVID‐19 infection. Understanding which patients are likely to develop VTE may inform pharmacologic VTE prophylaxis decision making. The hospital‐associated venous thromboembolism–Intermountain Risk Score (HA‐VTE IMRS) and the hospital‐associated major bleeding–Intermountain Risk Score (HA‐MB IMRS) are risk scores predictive of VTE and bleeding that were derived from only patient age and data found in the complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic panel (BMP).

Objectives

We assessed the HA‐VTE IMRS and HA‐MB IMRS for predictiveness of 90‐day VTE and major bleeding, respectively, among patients diagnosed with COVID‐19, and further investigated if adding D‐dimer improved these predictions. We also reported 30‐day outcomes.

Patients/Methods

We identified 5047 sequential patients with a laboratory confirmed diagnosis of COVID‐19 and a CBC and BMP between 2 days before and 7 days following the diagnosis of COVID‐19 from March 12, 2020, to February 28, 2021. We calculated the HA‐VTE IMRS and the HA‐MB IMRS for all patients. We assessed the added predictiveness of D‐dimer obtained within 48 hours of the COVID test.

Results

The HA‐VTE IMRS yielded a c‐statistic of 0.70 for predicting 90‐day VTE and adding D‐dimer improved the c‐statistic to 0.764 with the corollary sensitivity/specificity/positive/negative predictive values of 49.4%/75.7%/6.7%/97.7% and 58.8%/76.2%/10.9%/97.4%, respectively. Among hospitalized and ambulatory patients separately, the HA‐VTE IMRS performed similarly. The HA‐MB IMRS predictiveness for 90‐day major bleeding yielded a c‐statistic of 0.64.

Conclusion

The HA‐VTE IMRS and HA‐MB IMRS predict 90‐ and 30‐day VTE and major bleeding among COVID‐19 patients. Adding D‐dimer improved the predictiveness of the HA‐VTE IMRS for VTE.