Factorial designs for crossover clinical trials

The School Inner-City Asthma Intervention Study: Design, rationale, methods, and lessons learned

Asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood in the United States, causes significant morbidity, particularly in the inner-city, and accounts for billions of dollars in health care utilization. Home environments are established sources of exposure that exacerbate symptoms and home-based interventions are effective. However, elementary school children spend 7 to 12h a day in school, primarily in one classroom. From the observational School Inner-City Asthma Study we learned that student classroom-specific exposures are associated with worsening asthma symptoms and decline in lung function. We now embark on a randomized, blinded, sham-controlled school environmental intervention trial, built on our extensively established school/community partnerships, to determine the efficacy of a school-based intervention to improve asthma control. This factorial school/classroom based environmental intervention will plan to enroll 300 students with asthma from multiple classrooms in 40 northeastern inner-city elementary schools. Schools will be randomized to receive either integrated pest management versus control and classrooms within these schools to receive either air purifiers or sham control. The primary outcome is asthma symptoms during the school year. This study is an unprecedented opportunity to test whether a community of children can benefit from school or classroom environmental interventions. If effective, this will have great impact as an efficient, cost-effective intervention for inner city children with asthma and may have broad public policy implications.

An efficient early phase 2 procedure to screen medications for efficacy in smoking cessation

RATIONALE

Initial screening of new medications for potential efficacy (i.e., Food and Drug Administration (FDA) early phase 2), such as in aiding smoking cessation, should be efficient in identifying which drugs do, or do not, warrant more extensive (and expensive) clinical testing.

OBJECTIVES

This focused review outlines our research on development, evaluation, and validation of an efficient crossover procedure for sensitivity in detecting medication efficacy for smoking cessation. First-line FDA-approved medications of nicotine patch, varenicline, and bupropion were tested as model drugs, in three separate placebo-controlled studies. We also tested specificity of our procedure in identifying a drug that lacks efficacy, using modafinil.

RESULTS

This crossover procedure showed sensitivity (increased days of abstinence) during week-long "practice" quit attempts with each of the active cessation medications (positive controls) versus placebo, but not with modafinil (negative control) versus placebo, as hypothesized. Sensitivity to medication efficacy signal was observed only in smokers high in intrinsic quit motivation (i.e., already preparing to quit soon) and not smokers low in intrinsic quit motivation, even if monetarily reinforced for abstinence (i.e., given extrinsic motivation).

CONCLUSIONS

A crossover procedure requiring less time and fewer subjects than formal trials may provide an efficient strategy for a go/no-go decision whether to advance to subsequent phase 2 randomized clinical trials with a novel drug. Future research is needed to replicate our results and evaluate this procedure with novel compounds, identify factors that may limit its utility, and evaluate its applicability to testing efficacy of compounds for treating other forms of addiction.

Cross-over trials in Statistics in Medicine: the first '25' years

Papers on cross-over trials that have appeared in the first 25 years of Statistics in Medicine are reviewed. Papers on bioequivalence are also considered. After a brief statistical summary, individual papers are discussed under seven headings: 1. The two-stage analysis of AB/BA trials, 2. Baselines, 3. Binary and categorical data, 4. Survival data, 5. Modelling carry-over, 6. Bioequivalence and 7. Components of variation. Finally, a brief assessment of the importance in this field of Statistics in Medicine is given.

Multi-period crossover trials

This paper presents a review of crossover designs for use in medical applications which have three or more treatment periods. Only outcomes which can be analysed as continuous variables are considered. Designs which purport to allow for carryover effects are reviewed in detail, as are methods for analysing data collected in such trials. In practice, it is often possible to eliminate carryover by interposing sufficiently long 'washout' periods between successive treatments, and suitable designs for this case are also mentioned. Much current practice revolves around a model which has been widely criticized: the shortcomings of this model and the implications of possible remedies, for design as well as analysis, are discussed.

Is the 'simple carry-over' model useful?

It is argued that the models usually employed for carry-over effects in cross-over trials are not reasonable. The example of a non-linear dose response for a dose-finding trial arranged in a Williams square is developed to show that if carry-over is present to any appreciable degree the usual statistical models provide no guaranteed protection against its effects. It is concluded that the most reasonably defended assumption about carry-over effects is that no important carry-over has taken place and that, where this assumption cannot be defended, statistical models provide no satisfactory substitute for it.