A modified self-controlled case series method for event-dependent exposures and high event-related mortality, with application to COVID-19 vaccine safety

Unveiling unique clinical phenotypes of hip fracture patients and the temporal association with cardiovascular events

Cardiovascular events are the leading cause of death among hip fracture patients. This study aims to identify subphenotypes of hip fracture patients and investigate their association with incident cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and health service utilisation in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom populations. By the latent class analysis, we show three distinct clusters in the Hong Kong cohort (n = 78,417): Cluster 1 has cerebrovascular and hypertensive diseases, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes; Cluster 2 has congestive heart failure; Cluster 3 consists of relatively healthy patients. Compared to Cluster 3, higher risks of major adverse cardiovascular events are observed in Cluster 1 (hazard ratio 1.97, 95% CI 1.83 to 2.12) and Cluster 2 (hazard ratio 4.06, 95% CI 3.78 to 4.35). Clusters 1 and 2 are also associated with a higher risk of mortality, more unplanned accident and emergency visits and longer hospital stays. Self-controlled case series analysis shows a significantly elevated risk of major adverse cardiovascular events within 60 days post-hip fracture. Similar associations are observed in the United Kingdom cohort (n = 27,948). Pre-existing heart failure is identified as a unique subphenotype associated with poor prognosis after hip fractures.

Importance of Examining Incidentality in Vaccine Safety Assessment

The author believes that the principles of statistical methods for vaccine safety can be divided into three categories: comparison of adverse event incidence rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, analysis of incidentality in the vaccinated group, and a combination of both. The first category includes the cohort study; the second, the self-controlled risk interval design (SCRI); and the third, the self-controlled case series method. A single p-value alone should not determine a scientific conclusion, and analysis should be performed using multiple statistical methods with different principles. The author believes that using both the cohort study and the SCRI for analysis is the best method to assess vaccine safety. When the cohort study may not detect a significant difference owing to a low incidence rate of an adverse event in the vaccinated group or a high one in the unvaccinated group, the SCRI may detect it. Because vaccines must have a higher level of safety than the pharmaceuticals used for treatment, vaccine safety is advisable to be assessed using methods that can detect a significant difference even for any value of the incidence rate of an adverse event. The author believes that the analyses of COVID-19 vaccine safety have areas for improvement because the proportion of papers that used the cohort study and the SCRI was negligible.

Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study

BACKGROUND

Although previous studies found no-increased mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination, residual confounding bias might have impacted the findings. Using a modified self-controlled case series (SCCS) design, we assessed the risk of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes after primary series COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

We analyzed all deaths between December 14, 2020, and August 11, 2021, among individuals from eight Vaccine Safety Datalink sites. Demographic characteristics of deaths in recipients of COVID-19 vaccines and unvaccinated individuals were reported. We conducted SCCS analyses by vaccine type and death outcomes and reported relative incidences (RI). The observation period for death spanned from the dates of emergency use authorization to the end of the study period (August 11, 2021) without censoring the observation period upon death. We pre-specified a primary risk interval of 28-day and a secondary risk interval of 14-day after each vaccination dose. Adjusting for seasonality in mortality analyses is crucial because death rates vary over time. Deaths among unvaccinated individuals were included in SCCS analyses to account for seasonality by incorporating calendar month in the models.

RESULTS

For Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), RIs of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes were below 1 and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) excluded 1 across both doses and both risk intervals. For Moderna (mRNA-1273), RI point estimates of all outcomes were below 1, although the 95 % CIs of two RI estimates included 1: cardiac-related (RI = 0.78, 95 % CI, 0.58-1.04) and non-COVID-19 cardiac-related mortality (RI = 0.80, 95 % CI, 0.60-1.08) 14 days after the second dose in individuals without pre-existing cancer and heart disease. For Janssen (Ad26.COV2.S), RIs of four cardiac-related death outcomes ranged from 0.94 to 0.98 for the 14-day risk interval, and 0.68 to 0.72 for the 28-day risk interval and 95 % CIs included 1.

CONCLUSION

Using a modified SCCS design and adjusting for temporal trends, no-increased risk was found for non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes among recipients of the three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US.

Effectiveness and Respiratory Adverse Events Following Inactivated and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines in Patients with COPD and Asthma: A Chinese Population-Based Study

INTRODUCTION

Effectiveness and respiratory adverse events following coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have not been well investigated in Chinese patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma.

METHODS

Using electronic health care records in Hong Kong, we included adults with COPD or asthma or both and hospitalised for severe respiratory exacerbation in a self-controlled case series (SCCS) study between 23/02/2021 and 30/11/2022. Conditional Poisson regression models were used to estimate the incidence of outcomes within exposure periods (28 days after each dose) compared with baseline periods. Cox proportional hazard models evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-related mortality, hospitalisation, and severe complications, including admission to intensive care units or ventilatory support. The VE assessment was based on vaccine types and the number of doses.

RESULTS

In the SCCS, 343 CoronaVac recipients and 212 BNT162b2 recipients were included. No increased risk of outcomes was observed within the exposure periods. In the cohort study, 108,423 and 83,323 patients received ≥ 2 doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2, respectively. The VE (95% CI) against COVID-related mortality, hospitalisation, and severe complications after two-dose CoronaVac was 77% (74-80%), 18% (6-23%), and 29% (12-43%), respectively, while for the two-dose regimen of BNT162b2, it was 92% (91-94%), 33% (30-37%), and 57% (45-66%), respectively. Higher VE against COVID-related mortality, hospitalisation, and severe complications was found for the three-dose regimen of CoronaVac (94%, 40%, and 71%) and BNT162b2 (98%, 65%, and 83%). Administering a fourth dose of either vaccine showed additional reductions in COVID-related outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Among people with COPD and asthma, the COVID-19 vaccines CoronaVac and BNT162b2 did not increase severe exacerbations and achieved moderate-to-high effectiveness against COVID-related outcomes. COVID-19 vaccination remains essential and should be encouraged to protect this vulnerable population in future epidemic waves.

Nationwide safety surveillance of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines following primary series and first booster vaccination in Singapore

Background

The real-world safety profile of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines remains incompletely elucidated.

Methods

We performed a nationwide post-market safety surveillance analysis in Singapore, on vacinees aged 5 years and older, through mid-September 2022. Observed-over-expected (O/E) analyses were performed to identify potential safety signals among eight shortlisted adverse events of special interest (AESIs): strokes, cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT), acute myocardial infarction, myocarditis/pericarditis, pulmonary embolism, immune thrombocytopenia, convulsions and appendicitis. Self-controlled case series analyses (SCCS) were performed to validate signals of concern, occurring within 42 days of vaccination.

Findings

Elevated risks were observed on O/E analyses for the following AESIs: myocarditis/pericarditis, [rate ratio (RR): 3.66, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI): 2.71 to 4.94], appendicitis [RR: 1.14 (1.02 to 1.27)] and CVT [RR: 2.11 (1.18 to 3.77)]. SCCS analyses generated corroborative findings: myocarditis/pericarditis, [relative incidence (RI): 6.96 (3.95 to 12.27) at 1 to 7 days post-dose 2], CVT [RI: 4.30 (1.30 to 14.20) at 22 to 42 days post-dose 1] and appendicitis [RI: 1.31 (1.03 to 1.67) at 1 to 7 days post-dose 1]. Booster dose 1 continued to be associated with higher rates of myocarditis/pericarditis on O/E analysis [RR: 2.30, (1.39 to 3.80) and 1.69, (1.11 to 2.59)] at 21- and 42-days post-booster dose 1, respectively. Males aged 12 to 17 exhibited highest risks of both myocarditis/pericarditis [RI: 6.31 (1.36 to 29.3)] and appendicitis [RI: 2.01 (1.12 to 3.64)] after primary vaccination. Similarly, CVT was also predominantly observed in males aged above 50 (11 out of 16 cases), within 42-days of vaccination.

Interpretation

Our data suggest that myocarditis/pericarditis, appendicitis and CVT are associated with primary vaccination using COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Males at specific ages exhibit higher risks for all three AEs identified. The risk of myocarditis/pericarditis continues to be elevated after booster dose 1.

Risk of Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following COVID-19 Vaccines: A Nationwide Self-Controlled Case Series Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has been inconsistently associated with some coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. We aimed to quantify the risk of GBS according to the type of COVID-19 vaccine in a large population.

METHODS

Using the French National Health Data System linked to the COVID-19 vaccine database, we analyzed all individuals aged 12 years or older admitted for GBS from December 27, 2020, to May 20, 2022. We estimated the relative incidence (RI) of GBS within 1-42 days after vaccination up to the first booster dose compared with baseline periods using a self-controlled case series design. We then derived the number of cases attributable to the vaccination. Analyses were adjusted for the period and stratified by age group, sex, and for the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or common acute infections.

RESULTS

Of 58,530,770 people aged 12 years or older, 88.8% received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccine dose and 2,229 were hospitalized for GBS during the study period. Patients had a median age of 57 years, and 60% were male patients. The RI of GBS between 1-42 days was 2.5 (95% CI 1.8-3.6) for the first dose of ChAdOx1-S and 2.4 (95% CI 1.2-5.0) for the unique dose of Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. We estimated 6.5 attributable GBS cases per million persons having received a first dose of ChAdOx1-S and 5.7 cases per million for the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. Except for the age group of 12-49 years after the second dose of the messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 vaccine (RI 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.5), none of the RI estimates were found significantly increased for the mRNA vaccines.

DISCUSSION

In summary, we found increased risks of GBS after the first administration of ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. In this comprehensive assessment at the French population level, there was no statistically significant increase in the risk of GBS after the administration of mRNA vaccines. This is reassuring in the context of the ongoing and future use of mRNA-based booster vaccination.

Contribution of real-life studies in France during the COVID-19 pandemic and for the national pharmaco-epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 vaccines

During the COVID-19 pandemic, EPI-PHARE, a scientific group in pharmaco-epidemiology created by the French National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products (ANSM) and the French National Health Insurance (Cnam), has reoriented its work program to enlighten health authorities in this health crisis. By exploiting massive and complex data of the French Health Data System (SNDS) from the beginning of the first lockdown in France in March 2020, we were able to publish numerous results on the use, benefits and risks of medicines, on the risk factors of COVID-19 before and after vaccination, and on the benefits and risks of COVID-19 vaccines. Our results were widely taken into account by the French health authorities and allowed them to take informed decision in this pandemic situation in order to ensure the health of the population.

Postmarketing observational study on the safety of 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 influenza vaccination campaigns in Italy: TheShinISS-Vax|Flu study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of TheShinISS-Vax|Flu study is to examine the association between influenza vaccines and adverse events requiring hospital admission or emergency care during the influenza vaccination campaigns 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 in Italy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a Self-Controlled Case Series multiregional study using linked routinely collected data from regional healthcare databases of the participating regions. Study participants will be persons aged ≥6 months, unvaccinated or who have received influenza vaccine during the influenza vaccination campaigns in the seasons 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 in Italy and who have experienced the outcome of interest for the first time during the study period (1 September 2021-30 June 2022 and 1 September 2022-30 June 2023 for the first and second vaccination campaigns, respectively). Risk periods will be specifically defined for each outcome and further subdivided into periods of 7 days. The exposures will be the first or second dose of the influenza vaccines administered during the two vaccination campaigns. Statistical analysis will be conducted separately for the data of the two campaigns. Exposure risk period will be compared with baseline risk period defined as any time of observation out of the risk periods. The modified SCCS method will be applied to handle event-dependent exposure and mortality and fitted using unbiased estimating equations to estimate relative incidences and excess of cases per 100 000 vaccinated by dose, age, sex and type of vaccine. Calendar period will be included as time-varying confounder in the model, where appropriate.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study received the approval from the National ethics committee for clinical trials of public research bodies and other national public institutions (PRE BIO CE n.0036723, 23/09/2022). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and reports in accordance with the publication policies of the Italian National Institute of Health and of the Italian Medicines Agency.

Association between the mood stabilizing treatment of bipolar disorder and risk of suicide attempts: A self-controlled case series study

Bipolar disorder (BPD) is associated with high rates of suicide attempts but the anti-suicidal effect of mood stabilizing agents remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the association between mood stabilizing agents (lithium, valproate, lamotrigine, carbamazepine or antipsychotics) and risk of suicide attempts in patients with BPD using self-controlled case series study design. Among 14,087 patients with BPD who received mood stabilizing agents from 2001 to 2020 in Hong Kong, 1316 patients had at least one suicide attempts during the observation period. An increased risk of suicide attempts was observed 14 days before treatment initiation compared to non-exposed period. Following treatment initiation, an increased risk with smaller magnitude was found with the use of mood stabilizing agents. A lower risk was observed with lithium and antiepileptics while the risk remained attenuated with decreasing magnitude with antipsychotics. During 30-day post-treatment period, the risk was elevated. Therefore, this study suggests that use of mood stabilizing agents is not causally associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts. Indeed, there are potential protective effects of lithium and antiepileptics against suicide attempts. Assiduous monitoring of symptoms relapse and warning signs of suicide should be part of the management plan and discussed between clinicians, caregivers and patients.

Risk of death following COVID-19 vaccination or positive SARS-CoV-2 test in young people in England

Several studies have reported associations between COVID-19 vaccination and risk of cardiac diseases, especially in young people; the impact on mortality, however, remains unclear. We use national, linked electronic health data in England to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and positive SARS-CoV-2 tests on the risk of cardiac and all-cause mortality in young people (12 to 29 years) using a self-controlled case series design. Here, we show there is no significant increase in cardiac or all-cause mortality in the 12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccination compared to more than 12 weeks after any dose. However, we find an increase in cardiac death in women after a first dose of non mRNA vaccines. A positive SARS-CoV-2 test is associated with increased cardiac and all-cause mortality among people vaccinated or unvaccinated at time of testing.

Risk of carditis after three doses of vaccination with mRNA (BNT162b2) or inactivated (CoronaVac) covid-19 vaccination: a self-controlled cases series and a case-control study

Background

Large-scale comparative research exploring the risk after the third dose and after inactivated covid-19 vaccination is limited. This study aimed to assess the risk of carditis following three doses of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac.

Methods

We conducted a self-controlled case series (SCCS) and a case-control study using electronic health and vaccination records in Hong Kong. Carditis incidents within 28 days of covid-19 vaccination were included as cases. In the case-control study, up to 10 hospitalized controls were selected with stratified probability sampling by age, sex, and hospital admission (±1 day). The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were reported from conditional Poisson regressions for SCCS, and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were reported from multivariable logistic regressions.

Findings

A total of 8,924,614 doses of BNT162b2 and 6,129,852 doses of CoronaVac were administered from February 2021 to March 2022. The SCCS detected increased carditis risks after BNT162b2: 4.48 (95%confidence interval [CI]:2.99-6.70] in 1-14 days and 2.50 (95%CI:1.43-4.38) in 15-28 days after first dose; 10.81 (95%CI:7.63-15.32) in 1-14 days and 2.95 (95%CI:1.82-4.78) in 15-28 days after second dose; 4.72 (95%CI:1.40-15.97) in 1-14 days after third dose. Consistent results were observed from the case-control study. Risks were specifically found in people aged below 30 years and males. No significant risk increase was observed after CoronaVac in all primary analyses.

Interpretations

We detected increased carditis risks within 28 days after all three doses of BNT162b2 but the risk after the third doses were not higher than that of the second dose when compared with baseline period. Continuous monitoring of carditis after both mRNA and inactivated covid-19 vaccines is needed.

Funding

: This study was funded by Hong Kong Health Bureau (COVID19F01).

Thrombotic events following the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) in Aotearoa New Zealand: A self-controlled case series study

BACKGROUND

An association between thrombotic events and SARS-CoV-2 infection and the adenovirus-based COVID-19 vaccines has been established, leading to concern over the risk of thrombosis after BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the risk of arterial thrombosis, cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT), splanchnic thrombosis, and venous thromboembolism (VTE) following BNT162b2 vaccination in New Zealand.

METHODS

This was a self-controlled case series using national hospitalisation and immunisation records to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR). The study population included individuals aged ≥12 years, unvaccinated, or vaccinated with BNT162b2, who were hospitalised with one of the thrombotic events of interest from 19 February 2021 through 19 February 2022. The risk period was 0-21 days after receiving a primary or booster dose of BNT162b2.

RESULTS

6039 individuals were hospitalised with one of the thrombotic events examined, including 5127 with VTE, 605 with arterial thrombosis, 272 with splanchnic thrombosis, and 35 with CVT. The proportion of individuals vaccinated with at least one dose of BNT162b2 ranged from 82.7 % to 91.4 %. Compared with the control unexposed period, the IRR (95 % CI) of VTE, arterial thrombosis, splanchnic thrombosis, and CVT were 0.87 (0.76-1.00), 0.73 (0.56-0.95), 0.71 (0.43-1.16), and 0.87 (0.31-2.50) in the 21 days after BNT162b2 vaccination, respectively. There was no statistically significant increased risk of thrombosis following BNT162b2 in different ethnic groups in New Zealand.

CONCLUSION

The BNT162b2 vaccine was not found to be associated with thrombosis in the general population or different ethnic groups in New Zealand, providing reassurance for the safety of the BNT162b2 vaccine.

A post-marketing safety assessment of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination for serious adverse outcomes using administrative claims data linked with vaccination registry in a city of Japan

INTRODUCTION

The safety profiles of COVID-19 vaccines are incompletely evaluated in Japan.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the risk of serious adverse effects after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) in cohort studies and self-controlled case series (SCCS).

METHODS

Using an administrative claims database linked with the COVID-19 vaccination registry in a city in Japan between September 2020 and September 2021, we identified health insurance enrolees aged ≥ 18 years. We evaluated the risk of acute myocardial infarction, appendicitis, Bell's palsy, convulsions/seizures, disseminated intravascular coagulation, immune thrombocytopenia, pulmonary embolism, haemorrhagic or ischemic stroke, venous thromboembolism, and all-cause mortality, 21 days following any COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, compared with non-vaccination periods. For the cohort studies, we estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by Poisson regression and rate differences (IRDs) by weighted least-squares regression, adjusting for sex, age, and Charlson comorbidity index. We applied a modified SCCS design to appropriately treat outcome-dependent exposures. For the modified SCCS, we estimated within-subject IRRs by weighted conditional Poisson regression. Subgroup analyses stratified by sex and age were also conducted.

RESULTS

We identified 184,491 enrolees [male: 87,218; mean (standard deviation) age: 64.2 (19.5) years] with 136,667 first and 127,322 s dose vaccinations. The risks of any outcomes did not increase in any analyses, except for the fact that the modified SCCS indicated an increased risk of pulmonary embolism after the first dose in women (within-subject IRR [95%CI]: 3.97 [1.18-13.32]).

CONCLUSION

The findings suggested that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was generally safe, whilst a signal of pulmonary embolism following the first dose of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was observed.

Association between the risk of seizure and COVID-19 vaccinations: A self-controlled case-series study

OBJECTIVE

The risk of seizure following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinations has been sparsely investigated. This study aimed to evaluate this association.

METHOD

Patients who had their first seizure-related hospitalization between February 23, 2021 and January 31, 2022, were identified in Hong Kong. All seizure episodes happening on the day of vaccination (day 0) were excluded, since clinicians validated that most of the cases on day 0 were syncopal episodes. Within-individual comparison using a modified self-controlled case series analysis was applied to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of seizure using conditional Poisson regression.

RESULTS

We identified 1656 individuals who had their first seizure-related hospitalization (BNT162b2: 426; CoronaVac: 263; unvaccinated: 967) within the observation period. The incidence of seizure was 1.04 (95% CI .80-1.33) and 1.11 (95% CI .80-1.50) per 100 000 doses of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac administered, respectively. Sixteen and 17 individuals, respectively, received a second dose after having a first seizure within 28 days after the first dose of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinations. None had recurrent seizures after the second dose. There was no increased risk during day 1-6 after the first (BNT162b2: IRR = 1.39, 95% CI = .75-2.58; CoronaVac: IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = .50-2.83) and second doses (BNT162b2: IRR = 1.36, 95% CI = .72-2.57; CoronaVac: IRR = .71, 95% CI = .22-2.30) of vaccinations. During 7-13, 14-20, and 21-27 days post-vaccination, no association was observed for either vaccine.

SIGNIFICANCE

The findings demonstrated no increased risk of seizure following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinations. Future studies will be warranted to evaluate the risk of seizure following COVID-19 vaccinations in different populations, with subsequent doses to ensure the generalizability.

Safety of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccines in patients with heart failure: A self-controlled case series study

Background

COVID-19 vaccines are important for patients with heart failure (HF) to prevent severe outcomes but the safety concerns could lead to vaccine hesitancy. This study aimed to investigate the safety of two COVID-19 vaccines, BNT162b2 and CoronaVac, in patients with HF.

Methods

We conducted a self-controlled case series analysis using the data from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority and the Department of Health. The primary outcome was hospitalization for HF and the secondary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all hospitalization. We identified patients with a history of HF before February 23, 2021 and developed the outcome event between February 23, 2021 and March 31, 2022 in Hong Kong. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated using conditional Poisson regression to evaluate the risks following the first three doses of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac.

Findings

We identified 32,490 patients with HF, of which 3035 were vaccinated and had a hospitalization for HF during the observation period (BNT162b2 = 755; CoronaVac = 2280). There were no increased risks during the 0–13 days (IRR 0.64 [95% confidence interval 0.33–1.26]; 0.94 [0.50–1.78]; 0.82 [0.17–3.98]) and 14–27 days (0.73 [0.35–1.52]; 0.95 [0.49–1.84]; 0.60 [0.06–5.76]) after the first, second and third doses of BNT162b2. No increased risks were observed for CoronaVac during the 0–13 days (IRR 0.60 [0.41–0.88]; 0.71 [0.45–1.12]; 1.64 [0.40–6.77]) and 14–27 days (0.91 [0.63–1.32]; 0.79 [0.46–1.35]; 1.71 [0.44–6.62]) after the first, second and third doses. We also found no increased risk of MACE or all hospitalization after vaccination.

Interpretation

Our results showed no increased risk of hospitalization for HF, MACE or all hospitalization after receiving BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccines in patients with HF.

Funding

The project was funded by a Research Grant from the 10.13039/501100005407Food and Health Bureau, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Ref. No. COVID19F01). F.T.T.L. (Francisco T.T. Lai) and I.C.K.W. (Ian C.K. Wong)'s posts were partly funded by the D24H; hence this work was partly supported by AIR@InnoHK administered by Innovation and Technology Commission.

Risk of acute liver injury following the mRNA (BNT162b2) and inactivated (CoronaVac) COVID-19 vaccines

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Case reports of severe acute liver injury (ALI) following COVID-19 vaccination have recently been published. We evaluated the risks of ALI following COVID-19 vaccination (BNT162b2 or CoronaVac).

METHODS

We conducted a modified self-controlled case series analysis using the vaccination records in Hong Kong with data linkage to electronic medical records from a territory-wide healthcare database. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for ALI outcome in the 56-day period following first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccines in comparison to the non-exposure period were estimated and compared to the ALI risk in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

Among 2,343,288 COVID-19 vaccine recipients who were at risk, 4,677 patients developed ALI for the first time between 23^rd February 2021 to 30^th September 2021. The number of ALI cases within 56 days after the first and second dose of vaccination were 307 and 521 (335 and 334 per 100,000 person-years) for BNT162b2, and 304 and 474 (358 and 403 per 100,000 person-years) for CoronaVac, respectively, compared to 32,997 ALI cases per 100,000 person-years among patients within 56 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Compared to the non-exposure period, no increased risk was observed in the 56-day risk period for first (IRR 0.800; 95% CI 0.680-0.942) and second (IRR 0.944; 95% CI 0.816-1.091) dose of BNT162b2, or first (IRR 0.689; 95% CI 0.588-0.807) and second (IRR 0.905; 95% CI 0.781-1.048) dose of CoronaVac. There were no severe or fatal cases of ALI following COVID-19 vaccination.

CONCLUSION

There was no evidence of an increased risk of ALI associated with BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccination. Based on all current available evidence from previous studies and our study, the benefit of mass vaccination far outweighs the ALI risk from vaccination.

LAY SUMMARY

There have been some recent reports that COVID-19 vaccination could be associated with acute liver injury. In our study, we found no evidence that COVID-19 vaccination increased the risk of acute liver injury, which was much more common after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after vaccination. Hence, our study provides further data indicating that the benefits of mass COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the potential risks.

Risk of glomerular diseases, proteinuria and hematuria following mRNA (BNT162b2) and inactivated (CoronaVac) SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

BACKGROUND

With accruing case reports on de novo or relapsing glomerular diseases (GD) following different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines, we evaluated the risk of GD following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines.

METHODS

A modified self-controlled case series analysis was conducted using anonymized, territory-wide SARS-CoV-2 vaccination records in Hong Kong. All Hong Kong residents aged 18 years or above with outcomes of interest were included. Outcomes of interest were GD, proteinuria or hematuria within 42 days following each dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Incidence per 100 000 doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines administered was calculated, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated using conditional Poisson regression with seasonality adjustment.

RESULTS

Between 23 February 2021 and 31 March 2022, 4062 patients had an incident diagnosis of GD, proteinuria or hematuria, with 2873 of them being vaccinated during the observation period. The incidences of the composite events 1-41 days after vaccination were 3.7 (95% CI 3.1-4.4) per 100 000 doses of BNT162b2 administered, and 6.5 (95% CI 5.7-7.5) per 100 000 doses CoronaVac administered. There was no significant increase in the risks of composite events following the first (BNT162b2: IRR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.56-1.03; CoronaVac: IRR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.72-1.19), second (BNT162b2: IRR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.72-1.17; CoronaVac: IRR = 0.88. 95% CI 0.68-1.14) or third (BNT162b2: IRR = 0.39. 95% CI 0.15-1.03; CoronaVac: IRR = 1.18. 95% CI 0.53-2.63) dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence of increased risks of de novo or relapsing GD with either BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccines.

Risk of thyroid dysfunction associated with mRNA and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines: a population-based study of 2.3 million vaccine recipients

BACKGROUND

In view of accumulating case reports of thyroid dysfunction following COVID-19 vaccination, we evaluated the risks of incident thyroid dysfunction following inactivated (CoronaVac) and mRNA (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccines using a population-based dataset.

METHODS

We identified people who received COVID-19 vaccination between 23 February and 30 September 2021 from a population-based electronic health database in Hong Kong, linked to vaccination records. Thyroid dysfunction encompassed anti-thyroid drug (ATD)/levothyroxine (LT4) initiation, biochemical picture of hyperthyroidism/hypothyroidism, incident Graves' disease (GD), and thyroiditis. A self-controlled case series design was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of thyroid dysfunction in a 56-day post-vaccination period compared to the baseline period (non-exposure period) using conditional Poisson regression.

RESULTS

A total of 2,288,239 people received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccination (57.8% BNT162b2 recipients and 42.2% CoronaVac recipients). 94.3% of BNT162b2 recipients and 92.2% of CoronaVac recipients received the second dose. Following the first dose of COVID-19 vaccination, there was no increase in the risks of ATD initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 0.864, 95% CI 0.670-1.114; CoronaVac: IRR 0.707, 95% CI 0.549-0.912), LT4 initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 0.911, 95% CI 0.716-1.159; CoronaVac: IRR 0.778, 95% CI 0.618-0.981), biochemical picture of hyperthyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 0.872, 95% CI 0.744-1.023; CoronaVac: IRR 0.830, 95% CI 0.713-0.967) or hypothyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 1.002, 95% CI 0.838-1.199; CoronaVac: IRR 0.963, 95% CI 0.807-1.149), GD, and thyroiditis. Similarly, following the second dose of COVID-19 vaccination, there was no increase in the risks of ATD initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 0.972, 95% CI 0.770-1.227; CoronaVac: IRR 0.879, 95%CI 0.693-1.116), LT4 initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 1.019, 95% CI 0.833-1.246; CoronaVac: IRR 0.768, 95% CI 0.613-0.962), hyperthyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 1.039, 95% CI 0.899-1.201; CoronaVac: IRR 0.911, 95% CI 0.786-1.055), hypothyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 0.935, 95% CI 0.794-1.102; CoronaVac: IRR 0.945, 95% CI 0.799-1.119), GD, and thyroiditis. Age- and sex-specific subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed consistent neutral associations between thyroid dysfunction and both types of COVID-19 vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

Our population-based study showed no evidence of vaccine-related increase in incident hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism with both BNT162b2 and CoronaVac.

mRNA (BNT162b2) and Inactivated (CoronaVac) COVID-19 Vaccination and Risk of Adverse Events and Acute Diabetic Complications in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Study

INTRODUCTION

In Hong Kong, CoronaVac and BNT162b2 have been approved for emergency use owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Reactions towards the vaccine and the risk of post-vaccination adverse events may be different between recipients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of adverse events of special interest (AESI) and acute diabetic complications in the T2DM population after COVID-19 vaccination in Hong Kong.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Self-controlled case-series analysis was conducted. Patients with T2DM who received at least one dose of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac between 23 February 2021 and 31 January 2022 from electronic health records in Hong Kong were included. The incidence rates of 29 AESIs and acute diabetic complications (any of severe hypoglycemia, diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperosmolar hyperglycemic syndrome) requiring hospitalization within 21 days after the first or second dose of vaccination were reported. The risks of these outcomes were evaluated using conditional Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Among 141,224 BNT162b2 recipients and 209,739 CoronaVac recipients with T2DM, the incidence per 100,000 doses and incidence per 100,000 person-years of individual AESIs and acute diabetic complications ranged from 0 to 24.4 and 0 to 438.6 in BNT162b2 group, and 0 to 19.5 and 0 to 351.6 in CoronaVac group. We did not observe any significantly increased risk of individual AESIs or acute diabetic complications after first or second doses of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccine. Subgroup analysis based on HbA1c < 7% and ≥ 7% also did not show significantly excess risk after vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with T2DM do not appear to have higher risks of AESI and acute diabetic complications after BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccination. Moreover, given the low incidence of AESIs and acute diabetic complications after vaccination, the absolute risk increment was likely minimal.

Risk for Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, and Pulmonary Embolism Following COVID-19 Vaccines in Adults Younger Than 75 Years in France

BACKGROUND

The BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine has been shown to be safe with regard to risk for severe cardiovascular events (such as myocardial infarction [MI], pulmonary embolism [PE], and stroke) in persons aged 75 years or older. Less is known about the safety of other COVID-19 vaccines or outcomes in younger populations.

OBJECTIVE

To assess short-term risk for severe cardiovascular events (excluding myocarditis and pericarditis) after COVID-19 vaccination in France's 46.5 million adults younger than 75 years.

DESIGN

Self-controlled case series method adapted to event-dependent exposure and high event-related mortality.

SETTING

France, 27 December 2020 to 20 July 2021.

PATIENTS

All adults younger than 75 years hospitalized for PE, acute MI, hemorrhagic stroke, or ischemic stroke (n = 73 325 total events).

MEASUREMENTS

Linkage between the French National Health Data System and COVID-19 vaccine databases enabled identification of hospitalizations for cardiovascular events (MI, PE, or stroke) and receipt of a first or second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech, mRNA-1273 (Moderna), Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen), or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccine. The relative incidence (RI) of each cardiovascular event was estimated in the 3 weeks after vaccination compared with other periods, with adjustment for temporality (7-day periods).

RESULTS

No association was found between the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine and severe cardiovascular events. The first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was associated with acute MI and PE in the second week after vaccination (RI, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.11 to 1.51] and 1.41 [CI, 1.13 to 1.75], respectively). An association with MI in the second week after a single dose of the Janssen vaccine could not be ruled out (RI, 1.75 [CI, 1.16 to 2.62]).

LIMITATIONS

It was not possible to ascertain the relative timing of injection and cardiovascular events on the day of vaccination. Outpatient deaths related to cardiovascular events were not included.

CONCLUSION

In persons aged 18 to 74 years, adenoviral-based vaccines may be associated with increased incidence of MI and PE. No association between mRNA-based vaccines and the cardiovascular events studied was observed.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None.

Characteristics associated with the residual risk of severe COVID-19 after a complete vaccination schedule: A cohort study of 28 million people in France

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Thromboembolic events and hemorrhagic stroke after mRNA (BNT162b2) and inactivated (CoronaVac) covid-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study

BACKGROUND

This study aims to evaluate the association between thromboembolic events and hemorrhagic stroke following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccination.

METHODS

Patients with incident thromboembolic events or hemorrhagic stroke within 28 days of covid-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 positive test during 23 February to 30 September 2021 were included. The incidence per 100,000 covid-19 vaccine doses administered and SARS-CoV-2 test positive cases were estimated. A modified self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis using the data from the Hong Kong territory-wide electronic health and vaccination records. Seasonal effect was adjusted by month.

FINDINGS

A total of 5,526,547 doses of BNT162b2 and 3,146,741 doses of CoronaVac were administered. A total of 334 and 402 thromboembolic events, and 57 and 49 hemorrhagic stroke cases occurred within 28 days after BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccination, respectively. The crude incidence of thromboembolic events and hemorrhagic stroke per 100,000 doses administered for both covid-19 vaccines were smaller than that per 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 test positive cases. The modified SCCS detected an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke in BNT162b2 14-27 days after first dose with adjusted IRR of 2.53 (95% CI 1.48-4.34), and 0-13 days after second dose with adjusted IRR 2.69 (95% CI 1.54-4.69). No statistically significant risk was observed for thromboembolic events for both vaccines.

INTERPRETATION

We detected a possible safety signal for hemorrhagic stroke following BNT162b2 vaccination. The incidence of thromboembolic event or hemorrhagic stroke following vaccination is lower than that among SARS-CoV-2 test positive cases; therefore, vaccination against covid-19 remains an important public health intervention.

FUNDING

This study was funded by a research grant from the Food and Health Bureau, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (reference COVID19F01).

Safety of an inactivated, whole-virion COVID-19 vaccine (CoronaVac) in people aged 60 years or older in Hong Kong: a modified self-controlled case series

Background

Because evidence on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in older adults is scarce, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk of adverse events after CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) vaccination in adults aged 60 years or older.

Methods

In this modified self-controlled case series, we enrolled adults aged 60 years or older who had received at least one dose of CoronaVac in Hong Kong between Feb 23, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022. We extracted population-based, electronic health record data from the clinical management system of the Hospital Authority on adverse events of special interest (from Jan 1, 2005, to Feb 23, 2022) and patients' demographic information (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022), previous diagnoses (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022), medication history (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022), and laboratory tests, including those for SARS-CoV-2 infection (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022). Details of vaccination status were provided by the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Government and were linked to data from the Hospital Authority with identity card numbers or passport numbers. Our outcomes were the overall incidence of any adverse event of special interest and the incidence rates of 30 adverse events of special interest, as suggested by the WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety, in the inpatient setting within 21 days (2 days for anaphylaxis) of either the first, second, or third CoronaVac dose compared with a baseline period. Individuals who had a history of a particular event between Jan 1, 2005, and Feb 23, 2021, were excluded from the corresponding analysis. We evaluated the risk of an adverse event of special interest using conditional Poisson regression, adjusting for seasonal effects.

Findings

Of 1 253 497 individuals who received at least one dose of CoronaVac during the study period, 622 317 (49·6%) were aged at least 60 years and were included in the analysis. Our analysis sample received 1 229 423 doses of CoronaVac and had a mean age of 70·40 years (SD 8·10). 293 086 (47·1%) of 622 317 participants were men and 329 231 (52·9%) were women. The incidence of individual adverse events of interest ranged from 0·00 per 100 000 people to 57·49 per 100 000 people (thromboembolism). The first and third doses of CoronaVac were not associated with a significant excess risk of an adverse event of special interest within 21 days (or 2 days for anaphylaxis) of vaccination. After the second dose, the only significantly increased risk was for anaphylaxis (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2·61, 95% CI 1·08–6·31; risk difference per 100 000 people 0·61, 95% CI 0·03–1·81).

Interpretation

Because older age is associated with poor outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection, the benefits of CoronaVac vaccination in older adults outweigh the risks in regions where COVID-19 is prevalent. Ongoing monitoring of vaccine safety is warranted.

Funding

The Food and Health Bureau of the Government, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China and AIR@InnoHK, administered by the Innovation and Technology Commission.

Translation

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Messenger RNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination With BNT162b2 Increased Risk of Bell's Palsy: A Nested Case-Control and Self-Controlled Case Series Study

BACKGROUND

Observable symptoms of Bell's palsy following vaccinations arouse concern over the safety profiles of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. However, there are only inconclusive findings on Bell's palsy following messenger (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to update the previous analyses on the risk of Bell's palsy following mRNA (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

This study included cases aged ≥16 years with a new diagnosis of Bell's palsy within 28 days after BNT162b2 vaccinations from the population-based electronic health records in Hong Kong. Nested case-control and self-controlled case series (SCCS) analyses were used, where the association between Bell's palsy and BNT162b2 was evaluated using conditional logistic and Poisson regression, respectively.

RESULTS

Totally 54 individuals were newly diagnosed with Bell's palsy after BNT162b2 vaccinations. The incidence of Bell's palsy was 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-2.07) per 100 000 doses administered. The nested case-control analysis showed significant association between BNT162b2 vaccinations and Bell's palsy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.543; 95% CI, 1.123-2.121), with up to 1.112 excess events per 100 000 people who received 2 doses of BNT162b2. An increased risk of Bell's palsy was observed during the first 14 days after the second dose of BNT162b2 in both nested case-control (aOR, 2.325; 95% CI, 1.414-3.821) and SCCS analysis (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.32-4.50).

CONCLUSIONS

There was an overall increased risk of Bell's palsy following BNT162b2 vaccination, particularly within the first 14 days after the second dose, but the absolute risk was very low.