Cell-free fetal DNA screening in the USA: a cost analysis of screening strategies

Cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies for Down syndrome: a real-world analysis in 140,472 women

Background

Recent advancements in high-throughput sequencing have validated the accuracy, safety, and effectiveness of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down syndrome (DS).

Methods

This study aims to assess the effectiveness and economic implications of NIPT versus second-trimester serum screening (STSS) for DS and the different screening strategies through retrospectively analyzing data from 140,472 pregnant women who completed both NIPT and STSS (provided for free by local public welfare programs) between March 1, 2018 and December 31, 2020. Data were categorized into eight groups based on different screening strategies.

Results

The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of NIPT for detecting trisomy 21 were significantly higher compared with those of STSS. The universal NIPT screening strategy demonstrated the best effectiveness, detecting 163 DS cases with the highest net benefit and a cost-effectiveness ratio of 1:9.53. The STSS and NIPT combined screening strategy detected 128 DS cases with the lowest cost-effectiveness at RMB 341,800. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the universal NIPT screening strategy was RMB 1,186,200, significantly lower than the socioeconomic burden associated with a DS case.

Conclusion

NIPT demonstrated significantly superior testing performance compared to STSS. At a unit cost of RMB 600, the universal NIPT screening strategy is the most effective and holds substantial health economic value.

Improving the Performance of Prenatal Cell-Free DNA Screening Through Size-Selective Fetal DNA Enrichment in a Cohort of 71,986 General and High-Risk Pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of prenatal cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening with and without the cell-free fetal DNA enrichment method in general-risk and high-risk pregnancies.

METHODS

We performed a size-selective cell-free fetal DNA enrichment in 71,986 pregnancies. The cfDNA screening and follow-up results were collected for trisomies 21, 18, 13, fetal sex chromosome abnormalities (SCAs), and copy number variants (CNVs). The fetal fraction of cfDNA, positive rates, and positive predictive values (PPV) were compared between the general-risk and high-risk pregnancies with and without enrichment.

RESULTS

With the cell-free fetal DNA enrichment, the fetal fraction of cfDNA increased to 18.87 ± 5.94. The overall PPVs for common trisomies increased to 88.46% and 91.11% in the general- and high-risk populations, respectively. For CNVs, the PPVs with enrichment increased to 53.52% and 66.67% in the general risk and high-risk populations, respectively. However, for SCAs, the PPV was not improved by cell-free fetal DNA enrichment. The failure rates in the general-risk and high-risk groups decreased to 0.01% and 0.08%.

CONCLUSIONS

Cell-free fetal DNA enrichment significantly improves the PPVs of common trisomies and CNVs in general and high-risk populations. It has the potential for the clinical application effect of cell-free DNA screening.

Application of Digital Polymerase Chain Reaction (dPCR) in Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT)

This article reviews the current applications of the digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) in non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) and explores its potential to complement or surpass the capabilities of Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) in prenatal testing. The growing incidence of genetic disorders in maternal-fetal medicine has intensified the demand for precise and accessible NIPT options, which aim to minimize the need for invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures. Cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA), the core analyte in NIPT, is influenced by numerous factors such as maternal DNA contamination, placental health, and fragment degradation. dPCR, with its inherent precision and ability to detect low-abundance targets, demonstrates robustness against these interferences. Although NGS remains the gold standard due to its comprehensive diagnostic capabilities, its high costs limit widespread use, particularly in resource-limited settings. In contrast, dPCR provides comparable accuracy with lower complexity and expense, making it a promising alternative for prenatal testing.

Reframing antepartum and intrapartum surveillance

The original goal of electronic fetal monitoring was to reduce stillbirths. It worked. Then the mission expanded to reducing neurologic impairment including cerebral palsy. Despite 50 years' experience, the data have been contradictory, and even the key opinion leaders of EFM admit it an only detect about half the problems. Concomitantly, the cesarean delivery rate which has greater complications and costs has increased about 6-fold. Here we review multiple generations of antenatal testing schemes having increasing sophistication but still not too much improvement in outcomes and our re-engineered approach to intrapartum fetal monitoring for which we morph from the subjective Category system which has poor statistical performance metrics to a new approach we call the "Fetal Reserve Index." The FRI breaks down the tracing into 4 quantifiable components (fetal heart rate, variability, accelerations, and decelerations) and then formally adds to the analysis the presence of increased uterine activity, and maternal, fetal, and obstetrical risk factors. In version 1.0, all parameters are weighted equally. We have shown improved and earlier identification of fetal risk earlier in the pathophysiology allowing less abrupt and dramatic interventions. We have further shown the early postpartum period to be one of commonly unrecognized risks, and we envision a continuum of assessment from antepartum through intrapartum and postpartum for optimal results.

The clinical performance of fetal sex chromosome abnormalities in serum biochemical screening in the second trimester

This study aimed to investigate the serum biochemical markers' propensity associated with sex chromosome abnormalities (SCAs) and assess the clinical efficacy of SCAs in serum biochemical screening during the second trimester. A retrospective case-control analysis was conducted on pregnant women who underwent serum biochemical screening during the second trimester. The study compared groups of women with SCAs to those with normal chromosome karyotypes to assess changes in biochemical markers. We analysed and compared the performance of serum biochemical screening in each SCA group. The results showed that the alterations in serum biochemical markers varied among the different SCA groups. Typically, the serum biochemical markers of fetal SCAs were either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. The proportions of high- and intermediate-risk findings for 45,X, 47,XXX, 47,XXY, 47,XYY, and mosaic sex chromosomal abnormalities were 43.48%, 78.95%, 63.89%, 70.59%, and 78.13%, respectively. Besides detecting fetal trisomy 21 and trisomy 18, the current contingent screening procedures may also accidentally identify various fetal SCAs at a rate of 69.18%.

Clinical strategy study on prenatal screening and diagnostic model for Down syndrome

Exploring efficient and easily implementable prenatal screening strategies aims at birth defect prevention and control. However, there have been limited economic evaluations of non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS) strategies in China. Furthermore, these studies were predominantly confined to local or geographically proximate provinces and lacked universality and representativeness. This study assesses the health economics of current prenatal screening strategies and NIPS as first-line screening programs, analyzing their efficacy to determine an optimal strategy. From the perspective of health economics, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, and single-factor sensitivity were conducted for five different screening strategies using a decision tree model. Among pregnant women aged < 35 years who underwent only one screening for foetal Down syndrome (DS), the detection rate, false positive rate and positive predictive value of NIPS for foetuses with DS were superior to those of the other four serological screening methods. Although applying NIPS as first-line screening method yields the highest efficacy and benefits, it currently lacks cost-effectiveness when compared to serological screening and sequential NIPS screening strategies.

The value of combined detailed first-trimester ultrasound-biochemical analysis for screening fetal aneuploidy in the era of non-invasive prenatal testing

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the performance, cost-effectiveness and additional findings of combined detailed ultrasound and biochemical screening for risks of major fetal trisomies in the first-trimester.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis study, we estimated the risk of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 based on maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness, nasal bone, ductus venosus pulsatility index velocity, tricuspid regurgitation, fetal heart rate, free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A in singleton pregnant women, and performed non-invasive prenatal testing for women with risks of trisomy 21 between 1:500 and 1:300. Invasive diagnostic testing was performed for women with positive or failed non-invasive prenatal testing result and in the high-risk group of this screening method. The direct costs were compared between this strategy and the non-invasive prenatal testing which alone used as first-line screening for all pregnant women.

RESULTS

Among 25,155 singleton pregnant women who underwent screening, 24,361 were available for analysis, of these, 194 cases underwent non-invasive prenatal testing. Among the 24,361 women, 39, 19, and 7 had trisomies 21, 18 and 13, respectively. The use of this strategy could potentially detect approximately 94.87% of trisomy 21 cases, 100% of trisomy 18 cases, and 100% of trisomy 13 cases, with false-positive rates of 2.49%, 0.41%, and 0.49%, respectively. The overall detection rate and overall false-positive rates were 96.92% and 2.52%, respectively. The detection rate was 100% in the advanced age group and 94.12% in the general age group. Additionally, structural abnormalities were detected in 137 fetuses, and 44 fetuses had other chromosomal abnormalities. The total cost of this strategy was $3,730,843.30, and the cost per person tested was $153.15. The total cost of using non-invasive prenatal testing as the first-line strategy would be $6,813,387.04 and the cost per person tested was $279.68.

CONCLUSIONS

Our strategy is an efficient and cost-effective approach for detecting major trisomies and identifying more fetuses with a potential abnormality. Therefore, this strategy is a valuable screening method and highly feasible in the clinical setting.

Economic evaluation of prenatal screening for fetal aneuploidies in Thailand

Historically, there has been a lack of cost-effectiveness data regarding the inclusion of universal non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for trisomy 21, 18, and 13 in the benefit package of the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Thailand. Therefore, this study aimed to perform the cost-benefit analysis of prenatal screening tests and calculate the budget impact that would result from the implementation of a universal NIPT program. A decision-tree model was employed to evaluate cost and benefit of different prenatal chromosomal abnormalities screenings: 1) first-trimester screening (FTS), 2) NIPT, and 3) definitive diagnostic (amniocentesis). The comparison was made between these screenings and no screening in three groups of pregnant women: all ages, < 35 years, and ≥ 35 years. The analysis was conducted from societal and governmental perspectives. The costs comprised direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs, while the benefit was cost-avoidance associated with caring for children with trisomy and the loss of productivity for caregivers. Parameter uncertainties were evaluated through one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. From a governmental perspective, all three methods were found to be cost-beneficial. Among them, FTS was identified as the most cost-beneficial, especially for pregnant women aged ≥ 35 years. From a societal perspective, the definitive diagnostic test was not cost-effective, but the other two screening tests were. The most sensitive parameters for FTS and NIPT strategies were the productivity loss of caregivers and the incidence of trisomy 21. Our study suggested that NIPT was the most cost-effective strategy in Thailand, if the cost was reduced to 47 USD. This evidence-based information can serve as a crucial resource for policymakers when making informed decisions regarding the allocation of resources for prenatal care in Thailand and similar context.

Improving the interpretation of electronic fetal monitoring: the fetal reserve index

Electronic fetal monitoring, particularly in the form of cardiotocography, forms the centerpiece of labor management. Initially successfully designed for stillbirth prevention, there was hope to also include prediction and prevention of fetal acidosis and its sequelae. With the routine use of electronic fetal monitoring, the cesarean delivery rate increased from <5% in the 1970s to >30% at present. Most at-risk cases produced healthy babies, resulting in part from considerable confusion as to the differences between diagnostic and screening tests. Electronic fetal monitoring is clearly a screening test. Multiple attempts have aimed at enhancing its ability to accurately distinguish babies at risk of in utero injury from those who are not and to do this in a timely manner so that appropriate intervention can be performed. Even key electronic fetal monitoring opinion leaders admit that this goal has yet to be achieved. Our group has developed a modified approach called the "Fetal Reserve Index" that contextualizes the findings of electronic fetal monitoring by formally including the presence of maternal, fetal, and obstetrical risk factors and increased uterine contraction frequencies and breaking up the tracing into 4 quantifiable components (heart rate, variability, decelerations, and accelerations). The result is a quantitative 8-point metric, with each variable being weighted equally in version 1.0. In multiple previously published refereed papers, we have shown that in head-to-head studies comparing the fetal reserve index with the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists' fetal heart rate categories, the fetal reserve index more accurately identifies babies born with cerebral palsy and could also reduce the rates of emergency cesarean delivery and vaginal operative deliveries. We found that the fetal reserve index scores and fetal pH and base excess actually begin to fall earlier in the first stage of labor than was commonly appreciated, and the fetal reserve index provides a good surrogate for pH and base excess values. Finally, the last fetal reserve index score before delivery combined with early analysis of neonatal heart rate and acid/base balance shows that the period of risk for neonatal neurologic impairment can continue for the first 30 minutes of life and requires much closer neonatal observation than is currently being done.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening Strategies Involving Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing for Trisomy 21

Introduction

In accordance with social development, the proportion of advanced maternal age (AMA) increased and the cost of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) decreased.

Objective

We aimed to investigate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of NIPT as primary or contingent strategies limited to the high-risk population of trisomy 21 (T21).

Methods

Referring to parameters from publications or on-site verification, a theoretical model involving 1,000,000 single pregnancies was established. We presented five screening scenarios, primary NIPT (Strategy 1), contingent NIPT after traditional triple serum screening higher than 1/300 or 1/1,000 (Strategy 2-1 or 2-2), and age-based Strategy 3. Strategy 3 was stratified, with the following options: (1) for advanced maternal age (AMA) of 40 years and more, diagnostic testing was offered, (2) for AMA of 35-39 years, NIPT was introduced, (3) if younger than 35 years of age, contingent NIPT with risk higher than 1:300 (Strategy 3-1) or 1:1,000 (Strategy 3-2) will be offered. The primary outcome was an incremental cost analysis on the baseline and alternative assumptions, taking aging society, NIPT price, and compliance into consideration. The strategy was "appropriate" when the incremental cost was less than the cost of raising one T21 child (0.215 million US$). The second outcome included total cost, cost-effect, cost-benefit analysis, and screening efficiency.

Results

Strategy1 was costly, while detecting most T21. Strategy 2-1 reduced unnecessary prenatal diagnosis (PD) and was optimal in total cost, cost-effect, and cost-benefit analysis, nevertheless, T21 detection was the least. Strategy 3 induced most of the PD procedures. Then, setting Strategy2-1 as a baseline for incremental cost analysis, Strategy 3-1 was appropriate. In sensitivity analysis, when the NIPT price was lower than 47 US$, Strategy 1 was the most appropriate. In a society with more than 20% of people older than 35 years of age, the incremental cost of Strategy 3-2 was proper.

Conclusion

Combined strategies involving NIPT reduced unnecessary diagnostic tests. The AMA proportion and NIPT price played critical roles in the strategic decision. The age-based strategy was optimal in incremental cost analysis and was presented to be prominent as AMA proportion and NIPT acceptance increased. The primary NIPT was the most effective, but only at a certain price, it became the most cost-effective strategy.

A dPCR-NIPT assay for detections of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in a single-tube reaction-could it replace serum biochemical tests as a primary maternal plasma screening tool?

Background

The next generation sequencing (NGS) based non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) has outplayed the traditional serum biochemical tests (SBT) in screen of fetal aneuploidies with a high sensitivity and specificity. However, it has not been widely used as a primary screen tool due to its high cost and the cheaper SBT is still the choice for primary screen even with well-known shortages in sensitivity and specificity. Here, we report a multiplex droplet digital PCR NIPT (dPCR-NIPT) assay that can detect trisomies 21, 18 and 13 (T21, T18 and T13) in a single tube reaction with a better sensitivity and specificity than the SBT and a much cheaper price than the NGS-NIPT.

Methods

In this study, the dPCR-NIPT assay’s non-clinical characteristics were evaluated to verify the cell free fetal DNA (cffDNA) fraction enrichment efficiencies, the target cell free DNA (cfDNA) concentration enrichment, the analytical sensitivity, and the sample quality control on the minimum concentration of cfDNA required for the assay. We validated the clinical performance for this assay by blindly testing 283 clinical maternal plasma samples, including 36 trisomic positive samples, from high risk pregnancies to access its sensitivity and specificity. The cost effectiveness of using the dPCR-NIPT assay as the primary screen tool was also analyzed and compared to that of the existing contingent strategy (CS) using the SBT as the primary screen tool and the strategy of NGS-NIPT as the first-tier screen tool in a simulating situation.

Results

For the non-clinical characteristics, the sample processing reagents could enrich the cffDNA fraction by around 2 folds, and the analytical sensitivity showed that the assay was able to detect trisomies at a cffDNA fraction as low as 5% and the extracted cfDNA concentration as low as 0.2 ng/μL. By testing the 283 clinical samples, the dPCR-NIPT assay demonstrated a detection sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 95.12%. Compared to the existing CS and the NGS-NIPT as the first-tier screen strategy, dPCR-NIPT assay used as a primary screen tool followed by the NGS-NIPT rescreen is the most economical approach to screen pregnant women for fetal aneuploidies without sacrificing the positive detection rate.

Conclusion

This is the first report on a dPCR-NIPT assay, consisting of all the necessary reagents from sample processing to multiplex dPCR amplification, can detect T21, T18 and T13 in a single tube reaction. The study results reveal that this assay has a sensitivity and specificity superior to the SBT and a cost much lower than the NGS-NIPT. Thus, from both the test performance and the economic benefit points of views, using the dPCR-NIPT assay to replace the SBT as a primary screen tool followed by the NGS-NIPT rescreen would be a better approach than the existing CS for detection of fetal aneuploidies in maternal plasma.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-022-03455-y.

Health economic evaluation of noninvasive prenatal testing and serum screening for down syndrome

Background

Down syndrome (DS), also known as trisomy 21 (T21), is the most common genetic disorder associated with intellectual disability. There are two methods commonly used for prenatal testing of DS: serum screening (SS) for biomarkers in maternal serum and noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for aneuploidy by cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in maternal plasma. However, cost-effectiveness analyses of these two methods are mostly based on data derived from simulations with various models, with theoretical values calculated. In this study, we statistically analyzed clinical DS screening data and pregnancy outcomes during the follow-up of pregnant women in Zhuhai City, China. The economics of the two mainstream prenatal DS screening methods was evaluated from a public health perspective.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 17,363 pregnant women who received SS and NIPT during gestation in Zhuhai from 2018 to 2019, and a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed with four screening strategies. In strategy I, all pregnant women received SS, and those with T21 risk ≥1/270 had invasive prenatal diagnosis (IPD). In strategy II, all pregnant women received SS, those with T21 risk ≥ 1/270 had IPD, and those with 1/270 > T21 risk ≥ 1/1,000 had NIPT; then, women at high risk based on NIPT also had IPD. In strategy III, all pregnant women received SS, and those with T21 risk ≥1,000 had NIPT; then, women at high risk based on NIPT results had IPD. In strategy IV, all pregnant women received NIPT and those at high risk based on NIPT results had IPD. Finally, to assess the cost and effectiveness of DS screening, the total costs were calculated as the sum of screening and diagnosis as well as the direct and indirect economic burden during the average life cycle of DS patients.

Results

A total of 22 of the 17,363 (1/789) pregnant women had DS, of which only one woman was over 35 years of age. SS detected 1,024 cases at high risk of T21 (≥1/270), 8 cases were true positive, with a positive predictive value of 0.78% and a detection rate of 36.4%. NIPT detected 27 cases at high risk of T21 (Z ≥ 3) and 22 cases of DS, with a positive predictive value of 81.5% and a detection rate of 100%. Strategy I had the largest total cost of 65.54 million CNY, strategy II and III had similar total costs of 40 million CNY, and strategy IV had the lowest total cost of 14.91 million CNY. By comparison, the screening strategy with NIPT alone had the highest health economic value for DS.

Conclusions

SS was greatly affected by nuchal translucency and the accuracy of gestational age measured by ultrasonography. Unstandardized ultrasonography was an important reason for the low DS detection rate with SS. The influence of interfering factors on NIPT was much lower than in SS. NIPT can be used as an alternative to SS and as a primary screening strategy of prenatal DS screening for secondary prevention and control of birth defects. NIPT greatly decreased the frequency of IPD and the miscarriages associated with IPD, saved the limited medical and health resources, and greatly increased DS detection rate. Therefore, NIPT has great social and economic benefits.

Cost of providing cell-free DNA screening for Down syndrome in Finland using different strategies

OBJECTIVES

A financial analysis is carried out to assess costs and benefits of providing cell-free DNA screening in Finland, using different strategies.

METHODS

Three cell-free DNA screening strategies are considered: Primary, all women; Secondary, those with positive Combined test; and Contingent, the 10-30% with the highest Combined test risks. Three costs are estimated: additional cost for 10,000 pregnancies compared with the Combined test; 'marginal' cost of avoiding a Down syndrome birth which occurs in a pregnancy that would have been false-negative using the Combined test; and marginal cost of preventing the iatrogenic loss of a non-Down syndrome birth which occurs in a pregnancy that would have been false-positive.

RESULTS

Primary cell-free DNA will require additional funds of €250,000. The marginal cost per Down syndrome birth avoided is considerably less than the lifetime medical and indirect cost; the marginal cost per unaffected iatrogenic fetal loss prevented is higher than one benefit measure but lower than another. If the ultrasound component of the Combined test is retained, as would be in Finland, the additional funds required rise to €992,000. Secondary cell-free DNA is cost-saving as is a Contingent strategy with 10% selected but whilst when 20-30% costs rise they are much less than for the Primary strategy and are cost-beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

When considering the place of cell-free DNA screening it is important to make explicit the additional and marginal costs of different screening strategies and the associated benefits. Under most assumptions the balance is favorable for Contingent screening.

Introducing the non-invasive prenatal testing for detection of Down syndrome in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the health economic value of a non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) strategy against a second-trimester triple screening (STS) strategy for the detection of Down syndrome based on real-world data from China.

DESIGN

A decision-analytical model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of five strategies from a societal perspective. Cost and probability input data were obtained from the real-world surveys and published sources.

SETTING

China.

PARTICIPANTS

Women with a singleton pregnancy.

INTERVENTIONS

The five strategies for screening were: (A) maternal age with STS (no NIPT); (B) STS plus NIPT screening; (C) age-STS plus NIPT screening (the currently referral strategy in China); (D) maternal age with NIPT screening and (E) universal NIPT screening.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per additional Down syndrome case terminated, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were obtained.

RESULTS

Strategy A detected the least number of Down syndrome cases. Compared with the cheapest Strategy B, Strategy D had the lowest ICER (incremental cost, US$98 944.85 per additional Down syndrome case detected). Strategy D had the highest probability of being cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay level between US$110 000.00 and US$535 000.00 per additional Down syndrome case averted. Strategy E would not be cost-effective unless the unit cost of the NIPT could be decreased to US$60.50.

CONCLUSION

Introducing NIPT screening strategies was beneficial over the use of STS strategy alone. Evaluating maternal age in combination with the NIPT screening strategy performs better than China's currently referral strategy in terms of cost-effectiveness and safety. Lowering the price of NIPT and optimising payment methods are effective measures to promote universal NIPT strategies in China.

Understanding False Negative in Prenatal Testing

A false negative can happen in many kinds of medical tests, regardless of whether they are screening or diagnostic in nature. However, it inevitably poses serious concerns especially in a prenatal setting because its sequelae can mark the birth of an affected child beyond expectation. False negatives are not a new thing because of emerging new tests in the field of reproductive, especially prenatal, genetics but has occurred throughout the evolution of prenatal screening and diagnosis programs. In this paper we aim to discuss the basic differences between screening and diagnosis, the trade-offs and the choices, and also shed light on the crucial points clinicians need to know and be aware of so that a quality service can be provided in a coherent and sensible way to patients so that vital issues related to a false negative result can be appropriately comprehended by all parties.

Cost-effectiveness of preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy for fresh donor oocyte cycles

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether in vitro fertilization (IVF) with preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A) is cost effective to achieve a live birth compared with IVF alone in fresh donor oocyte cycles.

DESIGN

Theoretical cost-effectiveness study.

SETTING

Not applicable.

PATIENTS

None.

INTERVENTIONS

Comparison between the cost of IVF with PGT-A vs. IVF alone to achieve a live birth. The model analyzed a hypothetical single fresh oocyte donor IVF cycle with PGT-A vs. IVF alone and followed the progression of a single embryo through the different decision nodes. Cost estimates assigned to each clinical event were based on data obtained from the literature and institutional costs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost per live birth.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, IVF with PGT-A was not cost effective in fresh donor oocyte cycles when compared with IVF alone to achieve a live birth. The cycles using PGT-A cost an additional $6,018.66. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was found to be $119,606.59 per additional live birth achieved with IVF with PGT-A. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that IVF with PGT-A was not cost effective in nearly all iterations.

CONCLUSIONS

PGT-A in fresh donor oocyte IVF cycles is not cost effective compared with IVF alone over a wide range of probabilities and costs.

Prenatal screening for trisomy 21: a comparative performance and cost analysis of different screening strategies

Background

Prenatal screening for chromosome aneuploidies have constantly been evolving, especially with the introduction of cell-free fetal DNA (cfDNA) screening in the most recent years. This study compares the performance, costs and timing of test results of three cfDNA screening implementation strategies: contingent, reflex and primary.

Methods

We modelled enhanced first trimester screening (eFTS) as the first-tier test in contingent or reflex strategies. cfDNA test was performed contingent on or reflex from eFTS results. A comparison was made between cfDNA screening using sequencing technology and Rolling Circle Amplification (RCA)/imaging solution. All model assumptions were based on results from previous publications or information from the Ontario prenatal screening population.

Results

At an eFTS risk cut-off of ≥1/1000, contingent and reflex cfDNA screening have the same detection rate (DR) (94%) for trisomy 21. Reflex cfDNA screening using RCA/Imaging solution provided the lowest false positive rate and cost. The number of women requiring genetic counselling and diagnostic testing was significantly reduced and women received their cfDNA screening result 9 days sooner compared with the contingent model. While primary cfDNA screening improved the trisomy 21 DR by 3–5%, it was more costly and more women required diagnostic testing.

Conclusion

Reflex cfDNA screening is the most cost-effective prenatal screening strategy. It can improve the efficiency of prenatal aneuploidy screening by reducing the number of patient visits and providing more timely results.

A Retrospective Analysis Of Different Contingent Screening Models For Fetal Down Syndrome In Southwestern China

To discuss combinations of traditional screening and noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) and to compare which traditional screening is the most suitable first-line screening approach to NIPS, pregnant women were recruited in this retrospective observational study. Pregnant women underwent one of four traditional screening tests. The 9 contingent models were combined by high risk cut-offs of 1:50, 1:100, 1:270 and intermediate risk cut-offs of 1:1000, 1:1500, 1:2000. We analyzed cost and performance of various screening models with contingent screening of different risk cut-offs. Compared with other screening tests, combined first-trimester screening (CFTS) had the lowest proportion of high risk (≥1:270) with the highest detection rate (DR) (78.79%) and the lowest proportion of intermediate risk (1:271~1:1000). When intermediate risk was 1:51 ~1:1500, CFTS as first-line screening had the lowest cost with DR of 93.94%. Other screening tests as the first-line screening with intermediate risk of 1:51~1:1000 had the lowest cost, there DR were 90.91%, 84.62%, 91.67%, respectively. Our study demonstrated if only one traditional screening was allowed to screen pregnant women, CFTS was recommended as the first choice. According to local health and economic conditions, adopting appropriate traditional screening with suitable cut-offs as first-line screening will contributed to a cost-effective screening model.

Cost-effectiveness of five prenatal screening strategies for trisomies and other unbalanced chromosomal abnormalities: model-based analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of five prenatal screening strategies for trisomies (13/18/21) and other unbalanced chromosomal abnormalities (UBCA), following the introduction of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis.

METHODS

A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to estimate prevalence, safety, screening-program costs and healthcare costs of five different prenatal screening strategies, using a virtual cohort of 652 653 pregnant women in France. Data were derived from the French Biomedicine Agency and published articles. Uncertainty was addressed using one-way sensitivity analysis. The five strategies compared were: (i) cfDNA testing for women with a risk following first-trimester screening of ≥ 1/250; (ii) cfDNA testing for women with a risk of ≥ 1/1000 (currently recommended); (iii) cfDNA testing in the general population (regardless of risk); (iv) invasive testing for women with a risk of ≥ 1/250 (historical strategy); and (v) invasive testing for women with a risk of ≥ 1/1000.

RESULTS

In our virtual population, at similar risk thresholds, cfDNA testing compared with invasive testing was cheaper but less effective. Compared with the historical strategy, cfDNA testing at the ≥ 1/1000 risk threshold was a more expensive strategy that detected 158 additional trisomies, but also 175 fewer other UBCA. Implementation of cfDNA testing in the general population would give an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €9 166 689 per additional anomaly detected compared with the historical strategy.

CONCLUSION

Extending cfDNA to lower risk thresholds or even to all pregnancies would detect more trisomies, but at greater expense and with lower detection rate of other UBCA, compared with the historical strategy. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical validation of a novel automated cell-free DNA screening assay for trisomies 21, 13, and 18 in maternal plasma

Objective

To evaluate clinical performance of a new automated cell‐free (cf)DNA assay in maternal plasma screening for trisomies 21, 18, and 13, and to determine fetal sex.

Method

Maternal plasma samples from 1200 singleton pregnancies were analyzed with a new non–sequencing cfDNA method, which is based on imaging and counting specific chromosome targets. Reference outcomes were determined by either cytogenetic testing, of amniotic fluid or chorionic villi, or clinical examination of neonates.

Results

The samples examined included 158 fetal aneuploidies. Sensitivity was 100% (112/112) for trisomy 21, 89% (32/36) for trisomy 18, and 100% (10/10) for trisomy 13. The respective specificities were 100%, 99.5%, and 99.9%. There were five first pass failures (0.4%), all in unaffected pregnancies. Sex classification was performed on 979 of the samples and 99.6% (975/979) provided a concordant result.

Conclusion

The new automated cfDNA assay has high sensitivity and specificity for trisomies 21, 18, and 13 and accurate classification of fetal sex, while maintaining a low failure rate. The study demonstrated that cfDNA testing can be simplified and automated to reduce cost and thereby enabling wider population‐based screening.

What is already known about this topic?

Maternal plasma cell‐free (cf)DNA analysis with next-generation sequencing has a high sensitivity and specificity for fetal trisomy 21 and other common autosomal trisomies.

A new amplification-free, nonsequencing, and targeted cfDNA assay has been developed.

Proof‐of‐principle analysis found the new assay has promising results in screening for trisomy 21.

What does this study add?

The new assay has high sensitivity and specificity for trisomies 21, 18, and 13 in singleton pregnancies.

It can accurately determine fetal sex.

It is suitable for use in biochemical screening laboratories since it is highly automated and does not require specialized personnel.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Non-invasive Prenatal Testing for Down Syndrome in China

OBJECTIVES

There is little evidence in China regarding the cost-effectiveness of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down syndrome (DS). This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NIPT and provide evidence to inform decision-making.

METHODS

To determine the cost-effectiveness of NIPT for DS, a decision-analytic model was developed using the TreeAge Pro software from a societal perspective in a simulated cohort of 10 000 pregnant women. Main indicators were based on field surveys from sampled hospitals in four locations in China and a literature review.

RESULTS

The conventional maternal serum screening (CMSS) strategy, contingent screening strategy (NIPT delivered to high risk pregnant women after CMSS), and universal screening strategy could prevent 3.02, 7.53, and 9.97 DS births, respectively. NIPT would decrease unnecessary invasive procedures, resulting in fewer procedure-related miscarriages. The cost-effectiveness ratio of the contingent screening strategy was the lowest. When compared with the CMSS strategy, the incremental cost per DS birth averted by the contingent screening strategy and universal screening strategy were USD 20,160 and 352,388, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that, if the cost of NIPT could be decreased to USD 76.92, the cost-effectiveness ratio of the universal screening strategy would be lower than the CMSS strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Although NIPT has the merits of greater effectiveness and safety, CMSS is unlikely to be replaced by NIPT at this time because of NIPT's higher cost. Contingent screening may be an appropriate strategy to balance the effectiveness and cost factors of the new genetic testing technology.

Challenges in non-invasive prenatal screening for sub-chromosomal copy number variations using cell-free DNA

Non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS) has revolutionized the approach to prenatal fetal aneuploidy screening. Many commercial providers now offer analyses for sub-chromosomal copy number variations (CNVs). Here, we review the use of NIPS in the context of screening for microdeletions and microduplications, issues surrounding the choice of disorders tested for, and the advantages and disadvantages associated with the inclusion of microdeletions to current NIPS. Several studies have claimed benefits; however, we suggest that microdeletions have not demonstrated a low enough false positive rate to be deemed practical or ethically acceptable, especially considering their low positive predictive values. Because a positive NIPS result should be confirmed using diagnostic techniques, and false positive rates are as high as 90% for some microdeletions, diagnostic testing seems preferable when the goal is to maximize the detection of microdeletion or microduplication syndromes.

Cost-effectiveness of preimplantation genetic screening for women older than 37 undergoing in vitro fertilization

PURPOSE

Adding preimplantation genetic screening to in vitro fertilization has been shown to increase live birth rate in women older than 37. However, preimplantation genetic screening is an expensive procedure. Information on the cost-effectiveness of preimplantation genetic screening can help inform clinical decision making.

METHODS

We constructed a decision analytic model for a hypothetical fresh, autologous in vitro fertilization cycle (with versus without preimplantation genetic screening) for women older than age 37 who had a successful oocyte retrieval and development of at least one blastocyst. The model incorporated probability and cost estimates of relevant clinical events based on data from published literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the impact of changes in model input parameters.

RESULTS

In base-case analysis, IVF-PGS offered a 4.2 percentage point increase in live birth rate for an additional cost of $4509, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $105,489 per additional live birth. This ICER was below the expected cost of $145,063 for achieving one live birth with IVF (assuming an average LBR of 13.4% and $19,415 per cycle for this patient population). Sensitivity analysis suggested that ICER improved substantially with decreases in PGS cost and increases in PGS effectiveness. Monte Carlo simulation showed PGS to be cost-effective in 93.9% of iterations at an acceptability cutoff of $145,063.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the expected cost of achieving one live birth with IVF, PGS is a cost-effective strategy for women older than 37 undergoing IVF. Additional research on patients' willingness-to-pay per live birth would further inform our understanding regarding the cost-effectiveness of PGS.

Noninvasive prenatal screening or advanced diagnostic testing: caveat emptor

The past few years have seen extraordinary advances in prenatal genetic practice led by 2 major technological advances; next-generation sequencing of cell-free DNA in the maternal plasma to noninvasively identify fetal chromosome abnormalities, and microarray analysis of chorionic villus sampling and amniotic fluid samples, resulting in increased cytogenetic resolution. Noninvasive prenatal screening of cell-free DNA has demonstrated sensitivity and specificity for trisomy 21 superior to all previous screening approaches with slightly lower performance for other common aneuploidies. These tests have rapidly captured an increasing market share, with substantial reductions in the number of chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis performed suggesting that physicians and patients regard such screening approaches as an equivalent replacement for diagnostic testing. Simultaneously, many clinical programs have noted significant decreases in patient counseling. In 2012 the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development funded a blinded comparison of karyotype with the emerging technology of array comparative genomic hybridization showing that in patients with a normal karyotype, 2.5% had a clinically relevant microdeletion or duplication identified. In pregnancies with an ultrasound-detected structural anomaly, 6% had an incremental finding, and of those with a normal scan, 1.6% had a copy number variant. For patients of any age with a normal ultrasound and karyotype, the chance of a pathogenic copy number variant is greater than 1%, similar to the age-related risk of aneuploidy in the fetus of a 38 year old. This risk is 4-fold higher than the risk of trisomy 21 in a woman younger than 30 years and 5- to 10-fold higher than the present accepted risk of a diagnostic procedure. Based on this, we contend that every patient, regardless of her age, be educated about these risks and offered the opportunity to have a diagnostic procedure with array comparative genomic hybridization performed.

Cell-free DNA: Comparison of Technologies

Cell-free fetal DNA screening for Down syndrome has gained rapid acceptance over the past few years with increasing market penetration. Three main laboratory methodologies are currently used: a massive parallel shotgun sequencing (MPSS), a targeted massive parallel sequencing (t-MPS) and a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) based approach. Although each of these technologies has its own advantages and disadvantages, the performance of all was shown to be comparable and superior to that of traditional first-trimester screening for the detection of trisomy 21 in a routine prenatal population. Differences in performance were predominantly shown for chromosomal anomalies other than trisomy 21. Understanding the limitations and benefits of each technology is essential for proper counseling to patients. These technologies, as well as few investigational technologies described in this review, carry a great potential beyond screening for the common aneuploidies.

Genetics: update on prenatal screening and diagnosis

There have been tremendous advances in the ability to screen for the "odds" of having a genetic disorder (both mendelian and chromosomal). With microarray analyses on fetal tissue now showing a minimum risk for any pregnancy being at least 1 in 150 and ultimately greater than 1%, it is thought that all patients, regardless of age, should be offered chorionic villus sampling/amniocentesis and microarray analysis. As sequencing techniques replace other laboratory methods, the only question will be whether these tests are performed on villi, amniotic fluid cells, or maternal blood.

Inverted Pyramid of Care

First-trimester pregnancy evaluation using fetal and maternal parameters not only allows for diagnoses to be made early in gestation but can also assess the risk of complications that become clinically evident later in pregnancy. This evaluation makes it possible for pregnancy care to be individualized. In select cases, treatment that reduces the risk of complications can be started early in pregnancy. Even though cell free DNA is a significant advance in diagnosing fetal aneuploidy, the combination of first-trimester ultrasound and maternal serum biochemistries casts a much wider diagnostic net; therefore, the 2 technologies are best used in combination.

Cost-Effectiveness of Old and New Technologies for Aneuploidy Screening

Cost-effectiveness analyses allow assessment of whether marginal gains from new technology are worth increased costs. Several studies have examined cost-effectiveness of Down syndrome (DS) screening and found it to be cost-effective. Noninvasive prenatal screening also appears to be cost-effective among high-risk women with respect to DS screening, but not for the general population. Chromosomal microarray (CMA) is a genetic sequencing method superior to but more expensive than karyotype. In light of CMAs greater ability to detect genetic abnormalities, it is cost-effective when used for prenatal diagnosis of an anomalous fetus. This article covers methodology and salient issues of cost-effectiveness.

Integrating Microarrays into Routine Prenatal Diagnosis: Determinants of Decision Making

OBJECTIVES

The explosion in genetic technologies, including array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), has increased the complexity of genetic counseling. We now offer chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and aCGH to all first-trimester patients, as this allows the prenatal diagnosis of an additional 1% of anomalies not otherwise detectable and can detect genetic copy number variants at a much higher resolution than conventional cytogenetics. Here, we explored some of the determinants of how patients are deciding to use or not use this new technology and evaluate risk-benefit analyses for that decision.

METHODS

This is a retrospective case-control study of singleton and multiples pregnancies at our center. Those having aCGH testing along with CVS were defined as 'testers' and those who declined aCGH but had the CVS were 'nontesters'.

RESULTS

Demographic data of 181 educated women who chose CVS were compared. Among those carrying singletons (n = 144), older women, defined as over 35 years of age (or 'advanced maternal age'; AMA), were more likely to choose the aCGH than younger women. Further, women who had a prior history of genetic testing and who wanted to know the gender of the fetus were more likely to choose the aCGH test. In women carrying multiples (n = 37), AMA ceases to be a predictor of choice. Having had prior genetic counseling remains a strong predictor for choosing aCGH, as does wanting to know the gender of the fetus. Neither prior abortions nor having prior children were significant for women carrying singletons or multiples.

CONCLUSION

Offering pregnant couples an individualized choice regarding aCGH seems an appropriate approach. There are discrete patterns associated with the choice of taking the aCGH that varied depending on whether the patient was carrying a singleton or multiples.

Clinical implementation of routine screening for fetal trisomies in the UK NHS: cell-free DNA test contingent on results from first-trimester combined test

OBJECTIVES

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for detection of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 is superior to other methods of screening but is expensive. One strategy to maximize performance at reduced cost is to offer cfDNA testing contingent on the results of the first-trimester combined test that is used currently. The objectives of this study were to report the feasibility of implementing such screening, to examine the factors affecting patient decisions concerning their options for screening and decisions on the management of affected pregnancies and to report the prenatal diagnosis of fetal trisomies and outcome of affected pregnancies following the introduction of contingent screening.

METHODS

We examined routine clinical implementation of contingent screening in 11,692 singleton pregnancies in two National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in the UK. Women with a risk ≥ 1 in 100 (high-risk group) were offered options of invasive testing, cfDNA testing or no further testing, and those with a risk between 1 in 101 and 1 in 2500 (intermediate-risk group) were offered cfDNA testing or no further testing. The trisomic status of the pregnancies was determined by prenatal or postnatal karyotyping or by examination of the neonates.

RESULTS

In the study population of 11,692 pregnancies, there were 47 cases of trisomy 21 and 28 of trisomies 18 or 13. Screening with the combined test followed by invasive testing for all patients in the high-risk group potentially could have detected 87% of trisomy 21 and 93% of trisomies 18 or 13, at a false-positive rate of 3.4%; the respective values for cfDNA testing in the high- and intermediate-risk groups were 98%, 82% and 0.25%. However, in the high-risk group, 38% of women chose invasive testing and 60% chose cfDNA testing; in the intermediate-risk group 92% opted for cfDNA testing. A prenatal diagnosis was made in 43 (91.5%) pregnancies with trisomy 21 and all pregnancies with trisomies 18 or 13. In many affected pregnancies the parents chose to avoid testing or termination and 32% of pregnancies with trisomy 21 resulted in live births.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for fetal trisomies by cfDNA analysis of maternal blood, contingent on the results of the combined test, can be implemented easily in routine clinical practice. In the high-risk group from the combined test, most but not all women chose cfDNA testing rather than invasive testing. Performance of screening for trisomy 21 was superior by the cfDNA test than by the combined test. However, prenatal detection of trisomies and pregnancy outcome depend not only on performance of screening tests but also on parental choice.

An Economic Analysis of Cell-Free DNA Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing in the US General Pregnancy Population

OBJECTIVE

Analyze the economic value of replacing conventional fetal aneuploidy screening approaches with non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in the general pregnancy population.

METHODS

Using decision-analysis modeling, we compared conventional screening to NIPT with cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis in the annual US pregnancy population. Sensitivity and specificity for fetal aneuploidies, trisomy 21, trisomy 18, trisomy 13, and monosomy X, were estimated using published data and modeling of both first- and second trimester screening. Costs were assigned for each prenatal test component and for an affected birth. The overall cost to the healthcare system considered screening costs, the number of aneuploid cases detected, invasive procedures performed, procedure-related euploid losses, and affected pregnancies averted. Sensitivity analyses evaluated the effect of variation in parameters. Costs were reported in 2014 US Dollars.

RESULTS

Replacing conventional screening with NIPT would reduce healthcare costs if it can be provided for $744 or less in the general pregnancy population. The most influential variables were timing of screening entry, screening costs, and pregnancy termination rates. Of the 13,176 affected pregnancies undergoing screening, NIPT detected 96.5% (12,717/13,176) of cases, compared with 85.9% (11,314/13,176) by conventional approaches. NIPT reduced invasive procedures by 60.0%, with NIPT and conventional methods resulting in 24,596 and 61,430 invasive procedures, respectively. The number of procedure-related euploid fetal losses was reduced by 73.5% (194/264) in the general screening population.

CONCLUSION

Based on our analysis, universal application of NIPT would increase fetal aneuploidy detection rates and can be economically justified. Offering this testing to all pregnant women is associated with substantial prenatal healthcare benefits.

Prenatal screening for fetal aneuploidies with cell-free DNA in the general pregnancy population: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of fetal aneuploidy screening in the general pregnancy population using non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) as compared to first trimester combined screening (FTS) with serum markers and NT ultrasound.

Methods: Using a decision-analytic model, we estimated the number of fetal T21, T18, and T13 cases identified prenatally, the number of invasive procedures performed, corresponding normal fetus losses, and costs of screening using FTS or NIPT with cell-free DNA (cfDNA). Modeling was based on a 4 million pregnant women cohort, which represents annual births in the U.S.

Results: For the general pregnancy population, NIPT identified 15% more trisomy cases, reduced invasive procedures by 88%, and reduced iatrogenic fetal loss by 94% as compared to FTS. The cost per trisomy case identified with FTS was $497 909. At a NIPT unit, cost of $453 and below, there were cost savings as compared to FTS. Accounting for additional trisomy cases identified by NIPT, a NIPT unit cost of $665 provided the same per trisomy cost as that of FTS.

Conclusions: NIPT in the general pregnancy population leads to more prenatal identification of fetal trisomy cases as compared to FTS and is more economical at a NIPT unit cost of $453.

Incorporation of dried blood alpha fetoprotein into traditional first trimester Down syndrome screening service

Abstract

What’s already known about this topic?

What does this study add?