Longitudinal change in cerebroplacental ratio in small-for-gestational-age fetuses and risk of stillbirth

Predicting and preventing stillbirth at term

Stillbirth at term affects ∼1 per 1000 pregnancies at term in high income countries. A range of maternal characteristics are associated with stillbirth risk. However, given the low a priori risk of stillbirth, the vast majority of women with clinical risk factors would not experience a stillbirth in the absence of intervention. Stillbirth is the end point of multiple pathways, including both fetal growth restriction and fetal overgrowth. In most term stillbirths there is no mechanistic understanding of the cause of death and a sizeable proportion are completely unexplained. Term stillbirth is potentially preventable by early delivery, providing a rationale for screening. "Omic" analyses of blood taken prior to the onset of some of the conditions associated with stillbirth may help identify women at high risk and allow the potentially harmful intervention of early term medically indicated delivery to be targeted to the pregnancies most likely to benefit.

Longitudinal change in cerebro-placental ratio (CPR) between 37 and 40 weeks of pregnancy is associated with non-reassuring fetal status and increased risk of cesarean section

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate in low-risk pregnancies if longitudinal change in cerebro-placental ratio (CPR) between 37 and 40 weeks of pregnancy is associated with cesarean section (CS) for non-reassuring fetal status (NRFS) during labor.

METHODS

This is a prospective observational study of women with singleton low-risk pregnancies who underwent an ultrasound scan at 36 + 0 to 37 + 6 and 39 + 0 to 41 + 6 weeks of pregnancy, when the CPR was calculated from the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and umbilical artery (UA) pulsatility indices. Managing professionals were kept blinded to the Doppler results. The association of the longitudinal change between both CPR (z-velocity) to CS for NRFS was evaluated by logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 401 pregnancies were included. The mean time interval between both CPR evaluations was 21 days (SD 7). A CS for fetal distress was performed in 7% of pregnancies. Independent of the CPR at 37 weeks, the likelihood of CS for fetal distress was significantly decreased by the longitudinal changes from 37 to 40 weeks (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.4-0.92; p=.018). This association remained significant after further adjustment for potential confounders (nulliparity, maternal weight at booking and estimated fetal weight at 37): (OR 0.64, 95%CI 0.41-0.98; p=.044).

CONCLUSIONS

The longitudinal change of CPR between 37 and 40 weeks is associated with the need for CS for NRFS during labor.

Identifying risk of stillbirth using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Previous predictive models using logistic regression for stillbirth do not leverage the advanced and nuanced techniques involved in sophisticated machine learning methods, such as modeling nonlinear relationships between outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to create and refine machine learning models for predicting stillbirth using data available before viability (22-24 weeks) and throughout pregnancy, as well as demographic, medical, and prenatal visit data, including ultrasound and fetal genetics.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a secondary analysis of the Stillbirth Collaborative Research Network, which included data from pregnancies resulting in stillborn and live-born infants delivered at 59 hospitals in 5 diverse regions across the United States from 2006 to 2009. The primary aim was the creation of a model for predicting stillbirth using data available before viability. Secondary aims included refining models with variables available throughout pregnancy and determining variable importance.

RESULTS

Among 3000 live births and 982 stillbirths, 101 variables of interest were identified. Of the models incorporating data available before viability, the random forests model had 85.1% accuracy (area under the curve) and high sensitivity (88.6%), specificity (85.3%), positive predictive value (85.3%), and negative predictive value (84.8%). A random forests model using data collected throughout pregnancy resulted in accuracy of 85.0%; this model had 92.2% sensitivity, 77.9% specificity, 84.7% positive predictive value, and 88.3% negative predictive value. Important variables in the previability model included previous stillbirth, minority race, gestational age at the earliest prenatal visit and ultrasound, and second-trimester serum screening.

CONCLUSION

Applying advanced machine learning techniques to a comprehensive database of stillbirths and live births with unique and clinically relevant variables resulted in an algorithm that could accurately identify 85% of pregnancies that would result in stillbirth, before they reached viability. Once validated in representative databases reflective of the US birthing population and then prospectively, these models may provide effective risk stratification and clinical decision-making support to better identify and monitor those at risk of stillbirth.

Death and severe morbidity in isolated periviable small-for-gestational-age fetuses

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to predict perinatal death or severe sequelae in isolated small-for-gestational-age fetuses, diagnosed at a periviable gestational age, based on ultrasound and Doppler parameters at diagnosis.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

A tertiary perinatal centre.

POPULATION

A cohort of singleton non-malformed fetuses suspected to be small for gestational age (estimated fetal weight, EFW, <10th centile) diagnosed at 22.0-25.6 weeks of gestation. The following parameters were recorded at diagnosis: severe smallness (<3rd centile); absent or reversed end-diastolic velocity in umbilical artery; abnormal middle cerebral artery Doppler; abnormal cerebroplacental ratio; abnormal uterine artery Doppler; and absent or reversed end-diastolic velocity in the ductus venosus.

METHODS

Logistic regression analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive performance of EFW and Doppler parameters for short-term adverse outcome of perinatal morbimortality and composite serious adverse outcomes (death, neurological impairment or severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia).

RESULTS

A total of 155 pregnancies were included. There were 13 (8.4%) intrauterine and 11 (7.7%) neonatal deaths. A short-term adverse perinatal outcome occurred in 40 (25.8%) pregnancies. There were 31 (20%) cases of serious adverse outcomes. For the prediction of serious adverse outcomes, the combination of absent or reversed end-diastolic velocity in the umbilical artery and impaired middle cerebral artery detected by Doppler evaluation achieved a detection rate of 87%, with a false-positive rate of 14% (accuracy 86%).

CONCLUSION

In periviable isolated small-for-gestational-age fetuses, a Doppler evaluation of the umbilical and fetal brain circulation can accurately predict short-term adverse perinatal complications and serious adverse outcomes.

Perinatal Outcome and its Prediction Using Longitudinal Feto-Maternal Doppler Follow-Up in Late Onset Small for Gestational Age Fetuses - A Prospective Cohort Study

PURPOSE

 To describe the perinatal outcome of a prospective cohort of late-onset small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses and to test adverse perinatal outcome (APO) prediction using Doppler measurements.

METHODS

 Singleton pregnancies from 32 weeks with suspicion of SGA (followed-up each 2 weeks) and randomly selected healthy controls at a university hospital were included. The whole SGA group was divided into the FGR subgroup or SGA percentile 3-10 subgroup. The following Doppler measurements were evaluated prospectively: umbilical artery (UA) pulsatility index (PI), middle cerebral artery (MCA) PI, cerebro-placental ratio (CPR), and mean uterine artery (mUtA) PI. APO was defined as arterial cord blood pH ≤ 7.15 and/or 5-minute Apgar ≤ 7 and/or emergency operative delivery and/or admission to the neonatal unit. Induction of labor was indicated according to a stage-based protocol.

RESULTS

 A total of 149 SGA and 143 control fetuses were included. The number of operative deliveries was similar between both groups (control: 29 %, SGA: 28 %), especially the cesarean delivery rate after the onset of labor (11 % vs. 10 %). Most SGA cases ended up in induction of labor (61 % vs. 31 %, p < 0.001). The areas under the curve (AUC) for APO prediction were similar using the last UA PI, MCA PI, CPR, and mUtA PI and barely reached 0.60. The AUC was best for the FGR subgroup, using the minimal CPR or maximum mUtA PI z-score of all longitudinal measurements (AUC = 0.63).

CONCLUSION

 SGA fetuses do not have a higher rate of operative delivery if managed according to a risk stratification protocol. Prediction of APO is best for SGA and FGR using the "worst" CPR or mUtA PI but it remains moderate.

The sonopartogram

The assessment of labor progress from digital vaginal examination has remained largely unchanged for at least a century, despite the current major advances in maternal and perinatal care. Although inconsistently reproducible, the findings from digital vaginal examination are customarily plotted manually on a partogram, which is composed of a graphical representation of labor, together with maternal and fetal observations. The partogram has been developed to aid recognition of failure to labor progress and guide management-specific obstetrical intervention. In the last decade, the use of ultrasound in the delivery room has increased with the advent of more powerful, portable ultrasound machines that have become more readily available for use. Although ultrasound in intrapartum practice is predominantly used for acute management, an ultrasound-based partogram, a sonopartogram, might represent an objective tool for the graphical representation of labor. Demonstrating greater accuracy for fetal head position and more objectivity in the assessment of fetal head station, it could be considered complementary to traditional clinical assessment. The development of the sonopartogram concept would require further undertaking of serial measurements. Advocates of ultrasound will concede that its use has yet to demonstrate a difference in obstetrical and neonatal morbidity in the context of the management of labor and delivery. Taking a step beyond the descriptive graphical representation of labor progress is the question of whether a specific combination of clinical and demographic parameters might be used to inform knowledge of labor outcomes. Intrapartum cesarean deliveries and deliveries assisted by forceps and vacuum are all associated with a heightened risk of maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes. Although these outcomes cannot be precisely predicted, many known risk factors exist. Malposition and high station of the fetal head, short maternal stature, and other factors, such as caput succedaneum, are all implicated in operative delivery; however, the contribution of individual parameters based on clinical and ultrasound assessments has not been quantified. Individualized risk prediction models, including maternal characteristics and ultrasound findings, are increasingly used in women's health-for example, in preeclampsia or trisomy screening. Similarly, intrapartum cesarean delivery models have been developed with good prognostic ability in specifically selected populations. For intrapartum ultrasound to be of prognostic value, robust, externally validated prediction models for labor outcome would inform delivery management and allow shared decision-making with parents.

Longitudinal Doppler Assessments in Late Preterm Fetal Growth Restriction

PURPOSE

 To assess the longitudinal variation of the ratio of umbilical and cerebral artery pulsatility index (UCR) in late preterm fetal growth restriction (FGR).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 A prospective European multicenter observational study included women with a singleton pregnancy, 32^+ 0-36^+ 6, at risk of FGR (estimated fetal weight [EFW] or abdominal circumference [AC] < 10^th percentile, abnormal arterial Doppler or fall in AC from 20-week scan of > 40 percentile points). The primary outcome was a composite of abnormal condition at birth or major neonatal morbidity. UCR was categorized as normal (< 0.9) or abnormal (≥ 0.9). UCR was assessed by gestational age at measurement interval to delivery, and by individual linear regression coefficient in women with two or more measurements.

RESULTS

 856 women had 2770 measurements; 696 (81 %) had more than one measurement (median 3 (IQR 2-4). At inclusion, 63 (7 %) a UCR ≥ 0.9. These delivered earlier and had a lower birth weight and higher incidence of adverse outcome (30 % vs. 9 %, relative risk 3.2; 95 %CI 2.1-5.0) than women with a normal UCR at inclusion. Repeated measurements after an abnormal UCR at inclusion were abnormal again in 67 % (95 %CI 55-80), but after a normal UCR the chance of finding an abnormal UCR was 6 % (95 %CI 5-7 %). The risk of composite adverse outcome was similar using the first or subsequent UCR values.

CONCLUSION

 An abnormal UCR is likely to be abnormal again at a later measurement, while after a normal UCR the chance of an abnormal UCR is 5-7 % when repeated weekly. Repeated measurements do not predict outcome better than the first measurement, most likely due to the most compromised fetuses being delivered after an abnormal UCR.

Fetal growth restriction and stillbirth: Biomarkers for identifying at risk fetuses

Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is a major cause of stillbirth, prematurity and impaired neurodevelopment. Its etiology is multifactorial, but many cases are related to impaired placental development and dysfunction, with reduced nutrient and oxygen supply. The fetus has a remarkable ability to respond to hypoxic challenges and mounts protective adaptations to match growth to reduced nutrient availability. However, with progressive placental dysfunction, chronic hypoxia may progress to a level where fetus can no longer adapt, or there may be superimposed acute hypoxic events. Improving detection and effective monitoring of progression is critical for the management of complicated pregnancies to balance the risk of worsening fetal oxygen deprivation in utero, against the consequences of iatrogenic preterm birth. Current surveillance modalities include frequent fetal Doppler ultrasound, and fetal heart rate monitoring. However, nearly half of FGR cases are not detected in utero, and conventional surveillance does not prevent a high proportion of stillbirths. We review diagnostic challenges and limitations in current screening and monitoring practices and discuss potential ways to better identify FGR, and, critically, to identify the “tipping point” when a chronically hypoxic fetus is at risk of progressive acidosis and stillbirth.

The Association Between Hypertension in Pregnancy and Preterm Birth with Fetal Growth Restriction in Singleton and Twin Pregnancy: Use of Twin Versus Singleton Charts

OBJECTIVE

To compare the rates of fetal growth restriction (FGR) in singleton and twin pregnancies using singleton and twin-specific birthweight standards.

METHODS

The study included liveborn twin and singleton pregnancies between January 2000 and January 2019. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) included gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia. The study outcomes were FGR or small-for-gestational-age (SGA) at birth as assessed using singleton and twin reference charts.

RESULTS

The analysis included 1473 twin and 62,432 singleton pregnancies. In singleton pregnancies the risk of PTB <34 weeks without HDP (OR 2.82, p < 0.001), delivery ≥34 weeks with HDP (OR 2.38, p < 0.001), and PTB <34 weeks with HDP (OR 13.65, p < 0.001) were significantly higher in the pregnancies complicated by FGR compared to those without. When selective fetal growth restriction (sFGR) was assessed using the singleton standard, the risk of PTB <34 weeks without HDP (OR 1.03, p = 0.872), delivery ≥34 weeks with HDP (OR 1.36, p = 0.160) were similar in the pregnancies complicated by sFGR compared to those without, while the risk of PTB <34 weeks with HDP (OR 2.41, p = 0.025) was significantly higher in the pregnancies complicated by sFGR compared to those without. When sFGR was assessed using the twin-specific chart, the risk of PTB <34 weeks without HDP (OR 3.55, p < 0.001), delivery ≥34 weeks with HDP (OR 3.17, p = 0.004), and PTB <34 weeks with HDP (OR 5.69, p < 0.001) were significantly higher in the pregnancies complicated by sFGR compared to those without. The stronger and more consistent association persisted in the subgroup analyses according to chorionicity. The strength of association in dichorionic twin pregnancies resembles that of the singletons more closely and consistently when the FGR was diagnosed using the twin-specific charts.

CONCLUSION

FGR in twin pregnancies has a stronger and more consistent association with HDP and PTB when using twin-specific rather than singleton charts. This study provides further evidence supporting the use of twin-specific charts when assessing fetal growth in twin pregnancies.

UK stillbirth trends in over 11 million births provide no evidence to support effectiveness of Growth Assessment Protocol program

OBJECTIVE

Use of the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP) has increased internationally under the assumption that it reduces the stillbirth rate. The evidence for this is limited and based largely on an ecological time-trend study. Discordance in the uptake of the GAP program between Scotland and England/Wales enabled us to assess the assertion that implementation of GAP leads to a reduced stillbirth rate.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Records for Scotland and the Office for National Statistics on the number of singleton maternities and stillbirths in Scotland and in England and Wales, respectively, from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2015. National uptake of the GAP program over time in each of the regions was recorded. Stillbirth rate per 1000 maternities was calculated, according to year of delivery, and compared between Scotland and England/Wales.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 870 632 singleton maternities in Scotland, of which 4243 were stillbirths, and there were 10 469 120 singleton maternities in England and Wales, of which 51 562 were stillbirths. There was a marked difference in uptake of the GAP program between the two regions, with substantially fewer maternity units in Scotland implementing the program. Stillbirth rates were static up to 2010, with a decline thereafter in both regions, to 3.75 (95% CI, 3.25-4.30) per 1000 maternities in Scotland and 4.30 (95% CI, 4.15-4.46) per 1000 maternities in England and Wales in 2015. From 2010 onwards, the decline in Scotland was faster, equating to 48 (95% CI, 47.9-48.1) fewer stillbirths per 100 000 maternities in Scotland than in England and Wales from 2010 to 2015 compared with 2000 to 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a decline in stillbirth rate in England and Wales, which coincided with implementation of the GAP program. However, a concurrent decline in stillbirth rate was observed in Scotland in the absence of increased implementation of GAP. The secular rates of change in stillbirth rate in England and Wales cannot be used to infer efficacy of the GAP program. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.