Stratification of pregnancy care based on risk of pre-eclampsia derived from uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks' gestation

Assessment of risk for pre-eclampsia at mid-gestation to define subsequent care

OBJECTIVE

To stratify pregnancy care based on the estimated risk of pre-eclampsia (PE) from screening at 19-24 weeks' gestation by combinations of maternal risk factors, estimated fetal weight (EFW), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI).

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from a prospective non-interventional study in 134 443 women with a singleton pregnancy attending for a routine ultrasound scan at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation in two UK maternity hospitals. The visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, sonographic EFW and measurement of MAP and UtA-PI. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risk of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation. Receiver-operating-characteristics curves were constructed for screen-positive rates (SPRs) at different detection rates of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation for the combinations of maternal risk factors, EFW and MAP, and of maternal risk factors, EFW, MAP and UtA-PI. Different risk cut-offs were used with the intention of detecting about 80%, 85% and 90% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation. Calibration for risk of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation was assessed by plotting the observed incidence of PE against the predicted incidence of PE.

RESULTS

The study population contained 4335 (3.2%) women that subsequently developed PE, including 64 (0.05%) that delivered with PE at < 28 weeks' gestation, 209 (0.2%) that delivered with PE at < 32 weeks and 655 (0.5%) that delivered with PE at < 36 weeks. If the objective of screening was to identify about 90% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks and the method of screening was a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and MAP, the respective SPRs would be 11.0%, 18.3% and 38.8%. If the method of screening also included UtA-PI, the respective SPRs would be 2.6%, 3.8% and 23.6%. If the objective of screening was to identify about 80% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks and the method of screening was a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and MAP, the respective SPRs would be 5.9%, 9.7% and 21.9%. If the method of screening also included UtA-PI, the respective SPRs would be 1.0%, 2.1% and 11.7%. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the estimated risk and observed incidence of PE.

CONCLUSIONS

All women should be offered assessment of risk for PE at 11-13 weeks, to help identify those requiring aspirin prophylaxis to reduce the rate of preterm PE, and at 35-37 weeks, to determine the optimal timing of birth to reduce the rate of term PE. Assessment of risk for PE at mid-gestation can be used to identify the subgroups that require additional monitoring at 24-35, 28-35 and 32-35 weeks' gestation. The best performance of screening, reflected in the SPR necessary to achieve a high detection rate, is achieved by a combination of maternal risk factors, MAP and UtA-PI. © 2025 The Author(s). Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Routine 36-week scan: prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate

OBJECTIVES

First, to compare the predictive performance of routine ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 and 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation for delivery of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate. Second, to compare the predictive performance of EFW at 36 weeks' gestation for SGA vs fetal growth restriction (FGR) at birth. Third, to compare the predictive performance for delivery of a SGA neonate of EFW < 10th percentile vs a model combining maternal demographic characteristics and elements of medical history with EFW.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in 21 676 women with a singleton pregnancy who had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation and 107 875 women with a singleton pregnancy who had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks. Measurements of fetal head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length were used to calculate EFW according to the Hadlock formula and this was expressed as a percentile according to the Fetal Medicine Foundation fetal and neonatal population weight charts. The same charts were used to diagnose SGA neonates with birth weight < 10th or < 3rd percentile. FGR was defined as birth weight < 10th percentile in addition to Doppler anomalies. For each gestational-age window at screening, the screen-positive rate and detection rate were calculated at different EFW cut-offs between the 10th and 50th percentiles for predicting the delivery of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10th or < 3rd percentile, either within 2 weeks or at any time after assessment. The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves (AUC) of screening for a SGA neonate by EFW at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks and at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks were compared.

RESULTS

The predictive performance of routine ultrasonographic examination during the third trimester for delivery of a SGA neonate is higher if: first, the scan is carried out at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation rather than at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks; second, the outcome measure is birth weight < 3rd rather than < 10th percentile; third, the outcome measure is FGR rather than SGA; fourth, if delivery occurs within 2 weeks after assessment rather than at any time after assessment; and fifth, prediction is performed using a model that combines maternal demographic characteristics and elements of medical history with EFW rather than EFW < 10th percentile alone. At 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, detection of ≥ 85% of SGA neonates with birth weight < 10th percentile born at any time after assessment necessitates the use of EFW < 40th percentile. Screening at this percentile cut-off predicted 95% and 98% of neonates with birth weight < 10th and < 3rd percentile, respectively, born within 2 weeks after assessment, and the respective values for neonates born at any time after assessment were 85% and 93%.

CONCLUSION

Routine third-trimester ultrasonographic screening for a SGA neonate performs best when the scan is carried out at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, rather than at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks, and when EFW is combined with maternal risk factors to estimate the patient-specific risk. © 2024 The Author(s). Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Spiral, uterine artery doppler and placental ultrasound in relation to preeclampsia

Preeclampsia (PE) is a multiorgan disorder that complicates around 2-8% of pregnancies and is a major cause of perinatal and maternal morbidity and mortality. PE is a clinical syndrome characterized by hypertension secondary to systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and syncytiotrophoblast stress leading to hypertension and multiorgan dysfunction. The uterine arteries are the main blood vessels that supply blood to the uterus. They give off branches and plays an important role in maintaining blood supply during pregnancy. The arcuate artery originates from the uterine artery and runs medially through the myometrium. The arcuate arteries divide almost directly into anterior and posterior branches, from which the radial artery leads directly to the uterine cavity during their course. Near the endometrium-myometrium junction, the radial artery generates spiral arteries within the basal layer and functional endometrium. The walls of radial and spiral arteries are rich in smooth muscle, which is lost when trophoblast cells invade and become large-caliber vessels. This physiological transformation of uteroplacental spiral arteries is critical for successful placental implantation and normal placental function. In normal pregnancy, the luminal diameter of the spiral arteries is greatly increased, and the vascular smooth muscle is replaced by trophoblast cells. This process and changes in the spiral arteries are called spiral artery remodeling. In PE, this genetically and immunologically governed process is deficient and therefore there is decreased vascular capacitance and increased resistance in the uteroplacental circulation. Furthermore, this defect in uteroplacental spiral artery remodeling is not only associated with early onset PE, but also with fetal growth restriction, placental abruption, and spontaneous premature rupture of membranes. Doppler ultrasound allows non-invasive assessment of placentation, while the flow impedance decreases as the pregnancy progresses in normal pregnancies, in those destined to develop preeclampsia the impedance is increased.

External validation of Fetal Medicine Foundation competing-risks model for midgestation prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates in Spanish population

OBJECTIVE

To examine the external validity of the new Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for prediction in midgestation of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates.

METHODS

This was a single-center prospective cohort study of 25 484 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation. The FMF competing-risks model for the prediction of SGA combining maternal factors and midgestation estimated fetal weight by ultrasound scan (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) was used to calculate risks for different cut-offs of birth-weight percentile and gestational age at delivery. The predictive performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The validation cohort was significantly different in composition compared with the FMF cohort in which the model was developed. In the validation cohort, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI yielded detection rates of 69.6%, 38.7% and 31.7% for SGA < 10th percentile with delivery at < 32, < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks' gestation, respectively. The respective values for SGA < 3rd percentile were 75.7%, 48.2% and 38.1%. Detection rates in the validation cohort were similar to those reported in the FMF study for SGA with delivery at < 32 weeks but lower for SGA with delivery at < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks. Predictive performance in the validation cohort was similar to that reported in a subgroup of the FMF cohort consisting of nulliparous and Caucasian women. Detection rates in the validation cohort at a 15% FPR were 77.4%, 50.0% and 41.5% for SGA < 10th percentile with delivery at < 32, < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks, respectively, which were similar to the respective values reported in the FMF study at a 10% FPR. The model had satisfactory calibration.

CONCLUSION

The new competing-risks model for midgestation prediction of SGA developed by the FMF performs well in a large independent Spanish population. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Personalized stratification of pregnancy care for small for gestational age neonates from biophysical markers at midgestation

BACKGROUND

Antenatal identification of pregnancies at high risk of delivering small for gestational age neonates may improve the management of the condition and reduce the associated adverse perinatal outcomes. In a series of publications, we have developed a new competing-risks model for small for gestational age prediction, and we demonstrated that the new approach has a superior performance to that of the traditional methods. The next step in shaping the appropriate management of small for gestational age is the timely assessment of these high-risk pregnancies according to an antenatal stratification plan.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to demonstrate the stratification of pregnancy care based on individual patient risk derived from the application of the competing-risks model for small for gestational age that combines maternal factors with sonographic estimated fetal weight and uterine artery pulsatility index at midgestation.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective observational study of 96,678 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19 to 24 weeks of gestation, which included recording of estimated fetal weight and measurement of uterine artery pulsatility index. The competing-risks model for small for gestational age was used to create a patient-specific stratification curve capable to define a specific timing for a repeated ultrasound examination after 24 weeks. We examined different stratification plans with the intention of detecting approximately 80%, 85%, 90%, and 95% of small for gestational age neonates with birthweight <3rd and <10th percentiles at any gestational age at delivery until 36 weeks; all pregnancies would be offered a routine ultrasound examination at 36 weeks.

RESULTS

The stratification of pregnancy care for small for gestational age can be based on a patient-specific stratification curve. Factors from maternal history, low estimated fetal weight, and increased uterine artery pulsatility index shift the personalized risk curve toward higher risks. The degree of shifting defines the timing for assessment for each pregnancy. If the objective of our antenatal plan was to detect 80%, 85%, 90%, and 95% of small for gestational age neonates at any gestational age at delivery until 36 weeks, the median (range) proportions (percentages) of population examined per week would be 3.15 (1.9-3.7), 3.85 (2.7-4.5), 4.75 (4.0-5.4), and 6.45 (3.7-8.0) for small for gestational age <3rd percentile and 3.8 (2.5-4.6), 4.6 (3.6-5.4), 5.7 (3.8-6.4), and 7.35 (3.3-9.8) for small for gestational age <10th percentile, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The competing-risks model provides an effective personalized continuous stratification of pregnancy care for small for gestational age which is based on individual characteristics and biophysical marker levels recorded at the midgestation scan.

The association between decidual vasculopathy and abnormal uterine artery Doppler measurement

INTRODUCTION

Placental syndrome is an umbrella term encompassing the clinical phenotypes of preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction, and is associated with high maternal and neonatal morbidity. In women with placental syndrome, histologicl examination of the uteroplacental unit commonly demonstrates pathological lesions, such as decidual vasculopathy. Decidual vasculopathy are pathological changes in the spiral arteries, which are associated with adverse outcome in preeclampsia and long-term maternal cardiovascular health. The relation between placental syndrome phenotypes and placental pathology has been previously demonstrated; however, the role of uteroplacental Doppler measurements as a link between placental syndrome phenotypes and the underlying placental pathology is still unclear. We hypothesized that decidual vasculopathy is associated with abnormal uteroplacental Doppler profiles and ultrasound placental parameters, independent of clinical phenotype.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from a prospective cohort of pregnancies with placental syndrome, as well as cases without hypertensive disease or fetal growth restriction. The study group was divided into women with decidual vasculopathy on histologic analysis of placental specimen and those without the lesions. Outcome parameters included maternal and fetal Dopplers, estimated fetal weight, placental weight and thickness, placental lacunae and abnormal placental calcification.

RESULTS

Compared with the women without the lesions (n = 91), the group with decidual vasculopathy (n = 25) had a higher mean uterine artery pulsatility index (1.70 vs 0.81, p < 0.001) and uterine artery pulsatility index percentile (>p99 vs p67, p < 0.001). Decidual vasculopathy was associated with abnormal uterine artery Doppler profile (defined as pulsatility index p > 95 and/or bilateral notch) (82%) compared with women without the lesions (33%) (odds ratio [OR] 9.3, 95% CI 2.4-36.0), which remained significant after adjusting for possible confounding factors preeclampsia, tobacco use and gestational age at birth (OR 7.1, 95% CI 1.3-39.1). Decidual vasculopathy was not associated with fetal Doppler abnormalities or placental parameters and only modestly so with lower cerebroplacental ratio (p = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

Histologic decidual vasculopathy is associated with abnormal uterine artery Doppler, independent of clinical phenotype during pregnancy.

Using ultrasound and angiogenic markers from a 19- to 23-week assessment to inform the subsequent diagnosis of preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

A definition of preeclampsia that incorporates the assessment of maternal, fetal, and uteroplacental status would optimize the identification of pregnancies at risk of complications at term gestational age. This definition would include "carrying forward" angiogenic test results from 35 to 36 weeks of gestation to term gestational age. Would this approach still be useful if testing is performed earlier or at a routine midgestation scan and the result is used to inform the diagnosis of preeclampsia that developed thereafter?

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate whether fetoplacental assessment at a 19- to 23-week scan could be "carried forward" to contribute to the classification of preeclampsia and improve the detection of women and fetuses at risk of adverse outcomes associated with hypertension.

STUDY DESIGN

In this prospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies at 2 maternity hospitals in England (October 2011 to March 2020), women attending a routine hospital visit at 19 to 23 weeks of gestation underwent an assessment that included history, ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight, Doppler measurements of the pulsatility index in uterine arteries, and serum placental growth factor. Preeclampsia was defined according to various definitions: (1) traditional, based on new-onset proteinuria at ≥20 weeks of gestation; (2) 2013 American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists; (3) 2018 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal factor; (4) 2018 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor (death or growth restriction), based on ultrasound scans at the 19 0/7 to 23 6/7 week of gestation (an estimated fetal weight of <3rd percentile or estimated fetal weight between the 3rd and 10th percentiles with a uterine artery pulsatility index of >95th percentile); and (5) 2021 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor plus placental growth factor (with abnormal placental growth factor defined as an estimated fetal weight of <5th percentile for gestational age). The detection rates for outcomes of interest (ie, severe maternal hypertension, major maternal morbidity, perinatal mortality or major neonatal morbidity, neonatal intensive care unit admission ≥48 hours, and birthweight of <3rd percentile) ascertained by health record review were compared using the chi-square test. A P value of <.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Among 40,241 singleton pregnancies, preeclampsia incidence varied by definition, from lows of 2.6% (traditional) and 3.0% (American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists) to a high of 3.8% (International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor plus placental growth factor). The International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor plus placental growth factor definition (vs the traditional) best identified women who developed adverse outcomes: severe hypertension (detection rate: 70.6% vs 52.8%; P<.001), major maternal morbidity (detection rate: 100% vs 87.5%; P=.027), perinatal mortality or major morbidity (detection rate: 84.6% vs 69.5%; P=.004), neonatal intensive care unit admission ≥48 hours (detection rate: 76.6% vs 63.2%;, P=.0002), and birthweight of <3rd percentile (detection rate: 81.3% vs 61.9%; P<.0001]. The detection rates improved, going from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists definition to the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor plus placental growth factor definition, for severe hypertension (11.4%; P=.003), perinatal mortality or major morbidity (10.6%; P=.03), neonatal intensive care unit admission ≥48 hours (8.6%; P=.01), and birthweight of <3rd percentile (16.2%; P<.001). However, going from the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor definition to the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy maternal-fetal factor plus placental growth factor definition, the detection of fetuses with a birthweight of <3rd percentile improved by 7.0% (P=.01), but no other improvement was seen for severe hypertension (1.7%; P=.33), major maternal morbidity (0%), perinatal mortality or major morbidity (4.0%; P=.20), and neonatal intensive care unit admission ≥48 hours (3.2%; P=.17).

CONCLUSION

The criteria for uteroplacental dysfunction (including placental growth factor) from the 19- to 23-week assessment can be used in the assessment of women who are later suspected of having PE, to best identify pregnancies at risk of adverse outcomes.

Longitudinal assessment of spiral artery and intravillous arteriole blood flow and adverse pregnancy outcome

OBJECTIVE

Superb microvascular imaging (SMI) has been shown to improve visualization of small vessels by suppressing global motions while preserving low-flow components, such as the microvessels in the placenta. We sought to determine if SMI-aided visualization of flow velocity waveforms in the spiral arteries (SA) and intravillous fetal arterioles (IVA) could predict fetal growth restriction (FGR), gestational hypertension (GH) and/or pre-eclampsia (PE).

METHODS

This was a prospective longitudinal study of singleton pregnancies without fetal anomaly, receiving prenatal care in one of two medical centers over a 5-year period. Using SMI-aided color Doppler, SA and IVA flow velocity was measured at three timepoints: 11 + 0 to 14 + 0, 18 + 0 to 22 + 6 and 28 + 0 to 34 + 6 weeks of gestation. SA and IVA flow velocity waveforms were reported as resistance indices (RI). RI values were analyzed using multilevel modeling; individual regression curves were estimated and combined to obtain the reference intervals for SA-RI and IVA-RI in uncomplicated pregnancies. The primary clinical outcome was FGR and secondary outcomes were PE and GH. FGR was defined as estimated fetal weight < 10^th percentile. Student's t-test was used to compare deviation from expected RI between normal and complicated pregnancies.

RESULTS

Among 540 pregnancies included in the analysis, 18 (3.3%) had FGR, 31 (5.7%) PE and 61 (11.3%) GH. In uncomplicated pregnancies, the SA-RI decreased progressively with advancing gestation, whereas the IVA-RI increased with gestational age. In the third trimester, the mean SA-RI and IVA-RI values were significantly higher in the FGR group compared with pregnancies that did not develop FGR, while the mean SA-RI was significantly higher in PE compared with non-PE pregnancies. There was no significant difference in mean SA-RI or IVA-RI between pregnancies with vs those without GH at any gestational age. When all three adverse outcomes were combined, SA-RI was significantly higher in pregnancies with these outcomes when compared to uncomplicated pregnancies in the third trimester (mean ± SD, 0.29 ± 0.12 vs 0.26 ± 0.12; P = 0.02). In screening for FGR using SA-RI, the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves (AUC) were 0.68, 0.73 and 0.73 in the first, second and third trimesters, respectively. The respective AUCs for IVA-RI were 0.72, 0.72 and 0.73 for each trimester.

CONCLUSIONS

SA-RI and IVA-RI, measured using SMI technology, were significantly higher in pregnancies at risk for FGR in late gestation. Larger studies are needed to determine if SA and IVA flow are reliable predictors of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Second-trimester contingent screening for small-for-gestational-age neonate

OBJECTIVES

First, to investigate the additive value of second-trimester placental growth factor (PlGF) for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate. Second, to examine second-trimester contingent screening strategies.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation. We used the competing-risks model for prediction of SGA. The parameters for the prior model and the likelihoods for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) were those presented in previous studies. A folded-plane regression model was fitted in the dataset of this study to describe the likelihood of PlGF. We compared the prediction of screening by maternal risk factors against the prediction provided by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF. We also examined the additive value of PlGF in a policy that uses maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI.

RESULTS

The study population included 40 241 singleton pregnancies. Overall, the prediction of SGA improved with increasing degree of prematurity, with increasing severity of smallness and in the presence of coexisting pre-eclampsia. The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF improved significantly the prediction provided by maternal risk factors alone for all the examined cut-offs of birth weight and gestational age at delivery. Screening by a combination of maternal risk factors and serum PlGF improved the prediction of SGA when compared to screening by maternal risk factors alone. However, the incremental improvement in prediction was decreased when PlGF was added to screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI. If first-line screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 37 weeks' gestation was by maternal risk factors and EFW, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall false-positive rate (FPR) of 50%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 80% of the population. Similarly, in screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 30 weeks, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall FPR of 14%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 70% of the population. The additive value of PlGF in reducing the FPR to about 10% with a simultaneous detection rate of 90% for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born < 30 weeks, is gained by measuring PlGF in only 50% of the population when first-line screening is by maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF provides effective second-trimester prediction of SGA. Serum PlGF is useful for predicting a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born < 30 weeks after an inclusive assessment by maternal risk factors and biophysical markers. Similar detection rates and FPRs can be achieved by application of contingent screening strategies. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Development and validation of model for prediction of placental dysfunction-related stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal weight and uterine artery Doppler at mid-gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of a model combining maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 19-24 weeks' gestation, for predicting all antepartum stillbirths and those due to impaired placentation, in a training dataset used for development of the model and in a validation dataset.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from prospective screening for adverse obstetric outcome in women with singleton pregnancy attending for routine pregnancy care at 19 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks' gestation. The study population was divided into a training dataset used to develop prediction models for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth and a validation dataset to which the models were then applied. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model based on a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW Z-score and UtA-PI multiples of the normal median. We examined the predictive performance of the model by, first, the ability of the model to discriminate between the stillbirth and live-birth groups, using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) and the detection rate (DR) at a fixed false-positive rate (FPR) of 10%, and, second, calibration by measurements of calibration slope and intercept.

RESULTS

The study population of 131 514 pregnancies included 131 037 live births and 477 (0.36%) stillbirths. There are four main findings of this study. First, 92.5% (441/477) of stillbirths were antepartum and 7.5% (36/477) were intrapartum, and 59.2% (261/441) of antepartum stillbirths were observed in association with placental dysfunction and 40.8% (180/441) were unexplained or due to other causes. Second, placental dysfunction accounted for 80.1% (161/201) of antepartum stillbirths at < 32 weeks' gestation, 54.2% (52/96) at 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks and 33.3% (48/144) at ≥ 37 weeks. Third, the risk of placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth increased with increasing maternal weight and decreasing maternal height, was 3-fold higher in black than in white women, was 5.5-fold higher in parous women with previous stillbirth than in those with previous live birth, and was increased in smokers, in women with chronic hypertension and in parous women with a previous pregnancy complicated by pre-eclampsia and/or birth of a small-for-gestational-age baby. Fourth, in screening for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI in the validation dataset, the DR at a 10% FPR was 62.3% (95% CI, 57.2-67.4%) and the AUC was 0.838 (95% CI, 0.799-0.878); these results were consistent with those in the dataset used for developing the algorithm and demonstrate high discrimination between affected and unaffected pregnancies. Similarly, the calibration slope was 1.029 and the intercept was -0.009, demonstrating good agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth. The performance of screening was better for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth at < 37 weeks' gestation compared to at term (DR at a 10% FPR, 69.8% vs 29.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening at mid-gestation by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI can predict a high proportion of placental dysfunction-related stillbirths and, in particular, those that occur preterm. Such screening provides poor prediction of unexplained stillbirth or stillbirth due to other causes. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Every Mother and Every Fetus Matters: A Positive Pregnant Test = Multiple Offerings of Reproductive Risk Screening for personal, family, and specific obstetrical-fetal conditions

Structured OBJECTIVE: The requirement and need for a focused 'pregnant person -centered' antenatal care process with time for informed consent and shared decision making are important for optimal antenatal care. This commentary focuses on the evidenced -based screening test options and timing as part of the overall 'pregnant person-centered' preconception and antenatal care journey.

METHODS

A structured quality improvement (QI) review (Squire 2.0) was undertaken to examine the appropriate reproductive screening process in the periods of preconception and during pregnancy.

RESULTS

First, evaluated the broader antenatal care structure which, second, enabled the directed reproductive risk screening processes to be offered within an informed consent process. Four international pre-conception and antenatal evidenced-based consensus would routinely offer specific gestational age reproductive risk screening elements: totaling 21 screening elements (preconception 3; 1st trimester 9; 2nd trimester 3; 3rd trimester 4; intrapartum 1; postpartum 1).

CONCLUSION

The best evidenced-based opportunity for comprehensive and collaborative antenatal care with appropriate screening elements requires: single national access healthcare system; expert evidenced-based guideline creation; collaborative maternity care providers based for risk assessment, triage, and management; pregnant person (women) centered care model of maternity care; clearly identified evidenced-based gestational age directed screening elements; international pre-conception and antenatal guideline consensus.

Predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirth of the competing risks model for small for gestational age fetuses

OBJECTIVES

First, to examine the predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths of the competing risks model for small for gestational age (SGA) fetuses based on a combination of maternal risk factors, estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI); and second, to compare the performance of this model to that of stillbirth-specific model utilizing the same biomarkers and to the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (RCOG) guideline for the investigation and management of the SGA fetus.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Two UK maternity hospitals.

POPULATION

131,514 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

The predictive performance for stillbirth achieved by three models was compared. Main outcome measure Placental dysfunction related stillbirth.

RESULTS

At 10% false positive rate, the competing risks model predicted 59%, 66% and 71% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths, at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, which were similar to the respective figures of 62%, 70% and 73% for the stillbirth-specific model. At a screen positive rate of 21.8 %, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 71%, 76% and 79% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, and the respective figures for the RCOG guideline were 40%, 44% and 42%.

CONCLUSION

The predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths by the competing risks model for SGA was similar to the stillbirth-specific model and superior to the RCOG guideline.

Cross-modality and in-vivo validation of 4D flow MRI evaluation of uterine artery blood flow in human pregnancy

OBJECTIVES

Clinical assessment of uterine artery (UtA) hemodynamics is currently limited to Doppler ultrasound (US) velocimetry. We have demonstrated previously the feasibility of applying four-dimensional (4D) flow magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to evaluate UtA hemodynamics during pregnancy, allowing flow quantification of the entire course of the vessel. In this study, we sought to further validate the physiological relevance of 4D flow MRI measurement of UtA blood flow by exploring its association with pregnancy outcome relative to US-based metrics.

METHODS

Recruited into this prospective, cross-sectional study were 87 women with a singleton pregnancy who underwent 4D flow MRI between May 2016 and April 2019 to measure the UtA pulsatility index (MRI-PI) and blood flow rate (MRI-flow, in mL/min). UtA-PI was also measured using US (US-PI). The primary outcome was a composite (COMP) of pre-eclampsia (PE) and/or small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, and secondary outcomes were PE and SGA neonate individually. We assessed the ability of MRI-flow, MRI-PI and US-PI to distinguish between outcomes, and evaluated whether MRI-flow changed as gestation progressed.

RESULTS

Following 4D flow postprocessing and exclusions from the analysis, 74 women had 4D flow MRI data analyzed for both UtAs. Of these, 18 developed a COMP outcome: three developed PE only, 11 had a SGA neonate only and four had both. A comparison of the COMP group vs the no-COMP group found no differences in maternal age, body mass index, nulliparity, gravidity or race. For 66 of the 74 subjects, US data were also available. In these subjects, both median MRI-PI (0.95 vs 0.70; P < 0.01) and median US-PI (0.95 vs 0.73; P < 0.01) were significantly increased in subjects in the COMP group compared with those in the no-COMP group. The UtA blood-flow rate, as measured by MRI, did not increase significantly from the second to the third trimester (median flow (interquartile range (IQR)), 543 (419-698) vs 575 (440-746) mL/min; P = 0.77), but it was significantly lower overall in the COMP compared with the no-COMP group (median flow (IQR), 486 (366-598) vs 624 (457-749) mL/min; P = 0.04). The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves for MRI-flow, MRI-PI and US-PI in predicting COMP were not significantly different (0.694, 0.737 and 0.731, respectively; P = 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

4D flow MRI can yield physiological measures of UtA blood-flow rate and PI that are associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. This may open up new avenues in the future to expand the potential of this technique as a robust tool with which to evaluate UtA hemodynamics in pregnancy. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Contingent screening in stratification of pregnancy care based on risk of pre-eclampsia at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To explore the possibility of carrying out routine screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) with delivery at < 28, < 32, < 36 weeks' gestation by maternal factors, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) in all pregnancies and reserving measurements of placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) for only a subgroup of the population.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in two UK maternity hospitals involving women with singleton pregnancy attending for routine assessment at 19-24 weeks' gestation. The improvement in performance of screening for PE, at fixed risk cut-offs, by the addition of serum PlGF and sFlt-1 to screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI and MAP, was estimated. We examined a policy of contingent screening in which biochemical testing was reserved for only a subgroup of the population. The main outcome measures were the additional contribution of PlGF and sFlt-1 to the performance of screening for PE and the proportion of the population requiring measurement of PlGF and sFlt-1 for maximum performance of screening.

RESULTS

The study population included 37 886 singleton pregnancies. At each risk cut-off, the highest detection rates for delivery with PE and the lowest screen-positive rates were achieved in screening with maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1. The maximum performance by such screening was also achieved by contingent screening in which PlGF and sFlt-1 were measured in only about 40% of the population.

CONCLUSION

The performance of screening for PE by a combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI and MAP is improved by measurement of PlGF and sFlt-1 in about 40% of the population. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Stratification of pregnancy care based on risk of pre-eclampsia derived from biophysical and biochemical markers at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

We have proposed previously that all pregnant women should have assessment of risk for pre-eclampsia (PE) at 20 and 36 weeks' gestation and that the 20-week assessment should be used to define subgroups requiring additional monitoring and reassessment at 28 and 32 weeks. The objective of this study was to examine the potential improvement in screening at 19-24 weeks' gestation for PE with delivery at < 28, < 32, < 36 and ≥ 36 weeks' gestation by the addition of serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) to the combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and mean arterial pressure (MAP).

METHODS

This was a prospective, non-intervention study in women attending for an ultrasound scan at 19-24 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 36 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with multiples of the median values of UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each of four risk categories (very high risk, high risk, intermediate risk and low risk) with the intention of detecting about 80%, 85%, 90% and 95% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation. The performance of screening was assessed by plotting the detection rate against the screen-positive rate and calculating the areas under these curves, and by the proportion stratified into a given group for fixed detection rates. Model-based estimates of screening performance for these various combinations of markers were also produced.

RESULTS

In the study population of 37 886 singleton pregnancies, there were 1130 (3.0%) that subsequently developed PE, including 160 (0.4%) that delivered at < 36 weeks' gestation. In both the modeled and empirical results, there was incremental improvement in the performance of screening with the addition of PlGF and sFlt-1 to the combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI and MAP. If the objective of screening was to identify about 90% of cases of PE with delivery at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks and the method of screening was a combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI and MAP, the respective screen-positive rates would be 3.1%, 8.5% and 19.1%. The respective values for screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF were 0.2%, 0.7% and 10.6%, and for screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1 they were 0.1%, 0.4% and 9.5%. The empirical results were consistent with the modeled results. There was good agreement between the predicted risk and the observed incidence of PE at < 36 weeks' gestation for all three strategies of screening. Prediction of PE at ≥ 36 weeks was poor for all three screening methods, with the detection rate, at a 10% screen-positive rate, ranging from 33.2% to 38.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of screening at 19-24 weeks' gestation for PE with delivery at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation achieved by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, UtA-PI and MAP is improved by the addition of serum PlGF and sFlt-1. The performance of screening for PE at ≥ 36 weeks' gestation is poor irrespective of the method of screening at 19-24 weeks. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of the RCOG guideline for the prediction of neonates that are small for gestational age and comparison with the competing risks model

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of the relevant guideline by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) for neonates that are small for gestational age (SGA), and to compare the performance of the RCOG guideline with that of our competing risks model for SGA.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Obstetric ultrasound departments in two UK maternity hospitals.

POPULATION

A total of 96 678 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Risks for SGA for different thresholds were computed, according to the competing risks model using maternal history, second-trimester estimated fetal weight, uterine artery pulsatility index and mean arterial pressure. The detection rates by the RCOG guideline scoring system and the competing risks model for SGA were compared, at the screen positive rate (SPR) derived from the RCOG guideline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Small for gestational age (SGA), <10th or <3rd percentile, for different gestational age thresholds.

RESULTS

At an SPR of 22.5%, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 56, 72 and 81% of cases of neonates that are SGA, with birthweights of <10th percentile, delivered at ≥37, <37 and <32 weeks of gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective figures of 36, 44 and 45% achieved by the application of the RCOG guideline. The respective figures for neonates that were SGA with birthweights of <3rd percentile were 66, 79, 85 and 41, 45, 44%.

CONCLUSION

The detection rate for neonates that were SGA with the competing risk approach is almost double than that obtained with the RCOG guideline.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

The competing risks approach for the prediction of SGA performs better than the existing RCOG guideline.