Suboptimal Down syndrome screening test interpretation

Delta-NT and center-specific ultrasound nuchal translucency medians

OBJECTIVES

Two methods have been proposed for standardizing measures of nuchal translucency thickness (NT) for risk calculation in first-trimester screening for chromosomal defects: differential delta NT (delta-NT) and multiples of the median (MoM) of NT. There is currently some debate as to which of these is more appropriate. The aims of this study were to determine whether delta-NT could be extrapolated successfully from one center-specific NT reference curve to another and thus to empirically calculate the likelihood ratios (LRs) of delta-NT.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of a database of 4248 singleton pregnancies, including 13 cases of Down syndrome. The delta-NT was extrapolated to the reference curve of the NT values of the original group of patients for whom the LRs were calculated empirically, using a scale factor. The Down syndrome risk was calculated by standardizing the NT, using both extrapolated delta-NT and MoM methods, both for the screening based on maternal age and NT alone, and for the combined screening, in which biochemical markers are also taken into account. We analyzed detection rates and false positives, the precision of the risk prediction obtained by each of the methods and the effectiveness when each of the methods was used with a cut-off point based on a fixed post-test risk.

RESULTS

The risk calculation using extrapolated delta-NT presented an effectiveness profile that was similar to that obtained using MoMs, both when NT was used as the sole marker and when it was used in combination with biochemical markers. The precision of the risk prediction was similar with both methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Delta-NT can be extrapolated for use in risk calculation between two populations with different distributions and medians of NT values. The precision of the risk estimate obtained is similar to that derived using MoMs.

Screening in women's health, with emphasis on fetal Down's syndrome, breast cancer and osteoporosis

Screening tests have become increasingly popular in women's health care over the last two decades. The initiative for screening is typically generated by either an agency or the health care professional being consulted for some reason. In many instances, however, the demand for screening tests is patient driven with the health care provider being poorly prepared to determine the usefulness of screening. This review illustrates the complexity of screening using three disorders where early detection and treatment have the potential to improve the quality and longevity of life. Prenatal diagnosis of Down's syndrome does not offer the parents the opportunity for cure but does offer the opportunity for education and rational choice as the impact of the diagnosis on the family is weighed. The evidence for breast cancer screening is more persuasive for older than younger women, but even in older women, there is a balance of risks and benefits. Treatment options for osteoporosis have improved in terms of reductions in fracture risk as well as beneficial effects on bone density, but evidence of the effectiveness of a screening programme for this condition in an unselected population is lacking. Ultimately, it is crucial that women be provided with clear and comprehensive information about the screening programme, in terms of possible gains but also costs of various kinds: physical, economic and psychological.