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Guo K, Song S, Qiu L, Wang X, Ma S. Prediction of Red Blood Cell Demand for Pediatric Patients Using a Time-Series Model: A Single-Center Study in China. Front Med (Lausanne) 2022; 9:706284. [PMID: 35665347 PMCID: PMC9162489 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.706284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 04/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Red blood cells (RBCs) are an essential factor to consider for modern medicine, but planning the future collection of RBCs and supply efforts for coping with fluctuating demands is still a major challenge. Objectives This study aimed to explore the feasibility of the time-series model in predicting the clinical demand of RBCs for pediatric patients each month. Methods Our study collected clinical RBC transfusion data from years 2014 to 2019 in the National Center for Children's Health (Beijing) in China, with the goal of constructing a time-series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model by fitting the monthly usage of RBCs from 2014 to 2018. Furthermore, the optimal model was used to forecast the monthly usage of RBCs in 2019, and we subsequently compared the data with actual values to verify the validity of the model. Results The seasonal multiplicative model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 (normalized BIC = 8.740, R2 = 0.730) was the best prediction model and could better fit and predict the monthly usage of RBCs for pediatric patients in this medical center in 2019. The model residual sequence was white noise (Ljung-Box Q(18) = 15.127, P > 0.05), and its autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) coefficients also fell within the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The parameter test results were statistically significant (P < 0.05). 91.67% of the actual values were within the 95% CIs of the forecasted values of the model, and the average relative error of the forecasted and actual values was 6.44%, within 10%. Conclusions The SARIMA model can simulate the changing trend in monthly usage of RBCs of pediatric patients in a time-series aspect, which represents a short-term prediction model with high accuracy. The continuously revised SARIMA model may better serve the clinical environments and aid with planning for RBC demand. A clinical study including more data on blood use should be conducted in the future to confirm these results.
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Serra A, Fratello M, Cattelani L, Liampa I, Melagraki G, Kohonen P, Nymark P, Federico A, Kinaret PAS, Jagiello K, Ha MK, Choi JS, Sanabria N, Gulumian M, Puzyn T, Yoon TH, Sarimveis H, Grafström R, Afantitis A, Greco D. Transcriptomics in Toxicogenomics, Part III: Data Modelling for Risk Assessment. NANOMATERIALS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2020; 10:E708. [PMID: 32276469 PMCID: PMC7221955 DOI: 10.3390/nano10040708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Revised: 03/25/2020] [Accepted: 03/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Transcriptomics data are relevant to address a number of challenges in Toxicogenomics (TGx). After careful planning of exposure conditions and data preprocessing, the TGx data can be used in predictive toxicology, where more advanced modelling techniques are applied. The large volume of molecular profiles produced by omics-based technologies allows the development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) methods in TGx. Indeed, the publicly available omics datasets are constantly increasing together with a plethora of different methods that are made available to facilitate their analysis, interpretation and the generation of accurate and stable predictive models. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art of data modelling applied to transcriptomics data in TGx. We show how the benchmark dose (BMD) analysis can be applied to TGx data. We review read across and adverse outcome pathways (AOP) modelling methodologies. We discuss how network-based approaches can be successfully employed to clarify the mechanism of action (MOA) or specific biomarkers of exposure. We also describe the main AI methodologies applied to TGx data to create predictive classification and regression models and we address current challenges. Finally, we present a short description of deep learning (DL) and data integration methodologies applied in these contexts. Modelling of TGx data represents a valuable tool for more accurate chemical safety assessment. This review is the third part of a three-article series on Transcriptomics in Toxicogenomics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angela Serra
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland; (A.S.); (M.F.); (L.C.); (A.F.); (P.A.S.K.)
- BioMediTech Institute, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland
| | - Michele Fratello
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland; (A.S.); (M.F.); (L.C.); (A.F.); (P.A.S.K.)
- BioMediTech Institute, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland
| | - Luca Cattelani
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland; (A.S.); (M.F.); (L.C.); (A.F.); (P.A.S.K.)
- BioMediTech Institute, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland
| | - Irene Liampa
- School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 157 80 Athens, Greece; (I.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Georgia Melagraki
- Nanoinformatics Department, NovaMechanics Ltd., Nicosia 1065, Cyprus; (G.M.); (A.A.)
| | - Pekka Kohonen
- Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden; (P.K.); (P.N.); (R.G.)
- Division of Toxicology, Misvik Biology, 20520 Turku, Finland
| | - Penny Nymark
- Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden; (P.K.); (P.N.); (R.G.)
- Division of Toxicology, Misvik Biology, 20520 Turku, Finland
| | - Antonio Federico
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland; (A.S.); (M.F.); (L.C.); (A.F.); (P.A.S.K.)
- BioMediTech Institute, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland
| | - Pia Anneli Sofia Kinaret
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland; (A.S.); (M.F.); (L.C.); (A.F.); (P.A.S.K.)
- BioMediTech Institute, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland
- Institute of Biotechnology, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Karolina Jagiello
- QSAR Lab Ltd., Aleja Grunwaldzka 190/102, 80-266 Gdansk, Poland; (K.J.); (T.P.)
- University of Gdansk, Faculty of Chemistry, Wita Stwosza 63, 80-308 Gdansk, Poland
| | - My Kieu Ha
- Center for Next Generation Cytometry, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea; (M.K.H.); (J.-S.C.); (T.-H.Y.)
- Department of Chemistry, College of Natural Sciences, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
- Institute of Next Generation Material Design, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
| | - Jang-Sik Choi
- Center for Next Generation Cytometry, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea; (M.K.H.); (J.-S.C.); (T.-H.Y.)
- Department of Chemistry, College of Natural Sciences, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
- Institute of Next Generation Material Design, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
| | - Natasha Sanabria
- National Institute for Occupational Health, Johannesburg 30333, South Africa; (N.S.); (M.G.)
| | - Mary Gulumian
- National Institute for Occupational Health, Johannesburg 30333, South Africa; (N.S.); (M.G.)
- Haematology and Molecular Medicine Department, School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa
| | - Tomasz Puzyn
- QSAR Lab Ltd., Aleja Grunwaldzka 190/102, 80-266 Gdansk, Poland; (K.J.); (T.P.)
- University of Gdansk, Faculty of Chemistry, Wita Stwosza 63, 80-308 Gdansk, Poland
| | - Tae-Hyun Yoon
- Center for Next Generation Cytometry, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea; (M.K.H.); (J.-S.C.); (T.-H.Y.)
- Department of Chemistry, College of Natural Sciences, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
- Institute of Next Generation Material Design, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
| | - Haralambos Sarimveis
- School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 157 80 Athens, Greece; (I.L.); (H.S.)
| | - Roland Grafström
- Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden; (P.K.); (P.N.); (R.G.)
- Division of Toxicology, Misvik Biology, 20520 Turku, Finland
| | - Antreas Afantitis
- Nanoinformatics Department, NovaMechanics Ltd., Nicosia 1065, Cyprus; (G.M.); (A.A.)
| | - Dario Greco
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland; (A.S.); (M.F.); (L.C.); (A.F.); (P.A.S.K.)
- BioMediTech Institute, Tampere University, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland
- Institute of Biotechnology, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
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