Size of breeding populations required for selection programs

Oscilação genética em diferentes tamanhos de população sob seleção

Com o objetivo de estudar alguns fatores que influenciam a seleção em longo prazo, foram utilizados dados simulados pelo programa GENESYS, considerando: duas herdabilidades, dois tamanhos de população, três níveis de repetição e 20 gerações, para acasalamento ao acaso, seleção individual e BLUP. Para os dois tamanhos de população estudados e herdabilidade baixa (h² = 0,10), a seleção pelo BLUP apresentou maior resposta à seleção. A resposta pela seleção individual em populações maiores foi similar à do BLUP em populações menores. Observou-se que a oscilação genética foi maior para as populações submetidas à seleção pelo BLUP. Isso foi mais evidente para as populações de menor tamanho e característica de baixa herdabilidade, devido à maior taxa de endogamia e percentagem de alelos desfavoráveis fixados.

Improving the efficiency of artificial selection: more selection pressure with less inbreeding

The use of population genetic variability in present-day selection schemes can be improved to reduce inbreeding rate and inbreeding depression without impairing genetic progress. We performed an experiment with Drosophila melanogaster to test mate selection, an optimizing method that uses linear programming to maximize the selection differential applied while at the same time respecting a restriction on the increase in inbreeding expected in the next generation. Previous studies about mate selection used computer simulation on simple additive genetic models, and no experiment with a real character in a real population had been carried out. After six selection generations, the optimized lines showed an increase in cumulated phenotypic selection differential of 10.76%, and at the same time, a reduction of 19.91 and 60.47% in inbreeding coefficient mean and variance, respectively. The increased selection pressure would bring greater selection response, and in fact, the observed change in the selected trait was on average 31.03% greater in the optimized lines. These improvements in the selection scheme were not made at the expense of the long-term expectations of genetic variability in the population, as these expectations were very similar for both mate selection and conventionally selected lines in our experiment.

A simulation study on variation in response to selection and population size required for selection programmes

SUMMARY

To obtain a simple formula for predicting variation in selection response, the drift variance of selection response has been approximated by that under random selection. Using computer simulation, the validity of this approximation was examined under various combinations of population size, heritability, and proportion selected. It was shown that the approximation gives a good prediction when the heritability of the selected trait is low, but produces a serious error when applied to a trait with high heritability. However, when the approximation was used for the prediction of coefficient of variation of selection response, a satisfactory prediction was obtained in all cases studied. Although this predictor includes a coincidental factor, it may be used as a criterion for determining the population size required for selection programmes. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Simulationsuntersuchung über Selektionserfolg und notwendige Populationsgrößen für Selektions-programme Zur Schätzung der Variabilität von Selektionserfolgen wurde die Driftvarianz durch die bei Zufallspaarung erwartete approximiert. Die Gültigkeit dieser Approximation wurde an verschiedenen Kombinationen von Populationsgröße, Heritabilität und Remontierungsprozentsat überprüft. Die Approximation ergibt gute Schätzwerte bei geringer Heritabilität, aber erhebliche Fehler bei hoher. Allerdings konnte der Variationskoeffizient des Selektionserfolges in allen Fällen zufriedenstellend geschätzt werden. Obwohl dies auf Über-bzw. Unterschätzung von Zähler wie Nenner zurückzuführen ist, kann es als Kriterium zur Bestimmung der bei Selektionsprogrammen notwendigen Populationsgröße verwendet werden.