Markov model-based estimation of individual survival probability for medullary thyroid cancer patients

Prognosis of radiotherapy in medullary thyroid carcinoma patients without distant metastasis

Background

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is an advanced disease with a poor prognosis. Although radiotherapy is widely utilized to treat MTC, it is still controversial. MTC patients without distant metastases have not been investigated to explore indications for adjuvant radiotherapy. This study aims to investigate the impact of radiotherapy on the survival of MTC patients without distant metastases.

Methods

Data of MTC patients without distant metastasis who underwent total thyroidectomy between 2010 and 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Propensity score matching was performed to analyze the relationship between radiotherapy and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Results

Seventy-four of 718 MTC patients without distant metastases received radiotherapy and underwent total thyroidectomy. A total of 148 patients were screened via propensity score matching analysis. Multivariate Cox regression indicated that factors including age, sex, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent predictors of CSS. Based on these factors, MTC patients without distant metastasis were classified into two risk groups using a nomogram and risk classification system. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.791. The calibration curves showed good consistency of CSS between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction, and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed great clinical usefulness of the nomogram. The three-year CSS of the radiotherapy group was 85.3%, and that of the surgery group was 95%. Particularly, compared with the surgery group, the three-year CSS of subgroups of the radiotherapy group, including male patients and those aged >48 years, was decreased.

Conclusions

Radiotherapy results in worse CSS for MTC patients without distant metastases. To maximize benefits, decisions about individual radiotherapy should weigh its advantages and disadvantages.

External Beam Radiotherapy for Medullary Thyroid Cancer Following Total or Near-Total Thyroidectomy

OBJECTIVES

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) often presents with advanced disease and takes an aggressive course as compared with more well-differentiated thyroid cancers. The role of adjuvant therapy, specifically external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), remains disputed. This study investigated the impact of EBRT on survival in MTC.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of a national database.

SETTING

Patients with MTC were identified from the SEER program (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results).

METHODS

Collected variables included age, sex, race, T and N stages, lymph node yield, and use of EBRT. Propensity score matching was performed to determine the association of EBRT with overall and disease-specific survival.

RESULTS

A total of 2046 patients with locoregional MTC were identified. Of these, 152 received EBRT. Patients receiving EBRT were older and had more advanced disease. EBRT was not associated with differences in overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.76-1.65) or disease-specific survival (1.66; 0.93-2.95), as well as in subset analysis of age and disease extent. Long-term overall survival was similar, with 77.3% (95% CI, 70.1%-85.3%) and 58.3% (48.2%-70.5%) of patients without EBRT alive at 5 and 10 years, respectively (vs 70.7% [63.2%-79.1%] and 52.3% [43.3%-63.2%] of patients with EBRT). There were no differences in 5- and 10-year disease-specific survival.

CONCLUSION

EBRT was not associated with improved overall or disease-specific survival in patients with MTC. Decisions regarding EBRT must be made with consideration of morbidity relative to benefit for individual patients.

Surgical Treatment of Medullary Thyroid Cancer

Medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) can vary in tumor biology and progression. The most important indicator of distant metastases, determining clinical outcome, is lymph node metastasis to the neck and mediastinum. Surgical cure is within reach in node-negative tumors or node-positive tumors with fewer than 10 lymph node metastases. From a surgical point of view, compartment-oriented lymph node dissection, clearing gross, and occult metastases are important for locoregional tumor control. The discovery of missense germline mutations in the RET proto-oncogene and the close genotype-phenotype correlation in hereditary MTC promoted the worldwide breakthrough of prophylactic thyroidectomy. The best approach to hereditary MTC affords the DNA-based/biochemical concept, which is geared at limiting prophylactic surgery to total thyroidectomy at minimal surgical morbidity before the tumor can spread beyond the thyroid capsule. To improve outcome, routine calcitonin screening in nodular thyroid disease and DNA-based screening of the offspring in RET families are effective interventions.

Adjuvant external beam radiation for medullary thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant radiation is rarely used to treat medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). We hypothesized that external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) would improve overall survival (OS) in MTC patients.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database identified patients who underwent total thyroidectomy and lymph nodes excision for MTC between 1988 and 2004. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for univariate comparisons of OS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models controlled for gender, age, lymph node status, tumor size, extent of disease, and EBRT.

RESULTS

After 12 years, EBRT did not significantly improve OS (log rank, P < 0.14). In node-positive patients, univariate analysis demonstrated an OS benefit with EBRT (log rank, P < 0.05). In a multivariate model of node-positive patients, only increasing age (P < 0.001) and tumor size (P < 0.001) significantly influenced OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The OS benefit attributed to EBRT in node-positive patients by univariate analysis could not be duplicated when controlling for known prognostic factors.

Postoperative radiotherapy for advanced medullary thyroid cancer--local disease control in the modern era

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to catalog modern-era postoperative radiotherapy (external beam radiotherapy [EBRT]) outcomes for advanced medullary thyroid cancer.

METHODS

Thirty-four consecutive patients with stage IVa-c disease were evaluated. Ten patients had recurrent disease, 16 had mediastinal involvement, and 10 had distant metastasis. Positive surgical margins were present in 12 cases. Median pre-EBRT serum calcitonin was 556. All patients received conformal EBRT or intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Median EBRT dose was 60 Gy and median follow-up was 46.5 months.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier estimates of locoregional relapse-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival at 5 years were 87%, 62%, and 56%, respectively. Disease in 3 patients with gross residual disease was controlled locoregionally. Distant disease at the time of EBRT did not predict survival. Two (9%) patients reported symptomatic chronic morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Surgery followed by EBRT provided durable locoregional disease control with limited morbidity. Postoperative EBRT merits consideration in cases of advanced disease at high risk for locoregional recurrence.

Prognostic value of lymph node yield and metastatic lymph node ratio in medullary thyroid carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Lymphadenectomy and thyroidectomy is standard treatment for medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), but the prognostic importance of the number of lymph nodes removed (lymph node yield, LNY) and the proportion of metastatic lymph nodes resected (metastatic lymph node ratio, MLNR) is unknown. We hypothesized that MTC survival is influenced by LNY and MLNR.

METHODS

Patients (N = 534) who underwent thyroidectomy with lymphadenectomy for MTC between 1988 and 2004 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for univariate comparisons of survival for LNY and MLNR with a maximum follow-up of 12 years. Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, extent of disease, tumor size, nodal status, LNY, and MLNR.

RESULTS

By univariate analysis, increasing LNY was associated with improved survival in all patients (P < 0.002) and node-positive patients (P < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis using LNY and MLNR as categorical variables, significant factors influencing survival included: age (P < 0.001), tumor size (P < 0.001), LNY (P = 0.007), and MLNR (P < 0.02); in node-negative patients: age (P = 0.002); in node-positive patients: age (P < 0.001), tumor size (P < 0.001), and LNY (P = 0.001). Using LNY and MLNR as continuous variables, significant factors influencing survival included: age (P < 0.001), tumor size (P < 0.001), and MLNR (P = 0.01); in node-negative patients: age (P < 0.001); in node-positive patients: age (P < 0.001) and tumor size (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients undergoing thyroidectomy and lymphadenectomy for MTC, LNY and MLNR predict poorer survival, but their impact on survival was limited to node-positive patients and was otherwise dominated by the effects of age and extent of disease.