Uses and misuses of statistics: the case of strontium ranelate and the number needed to treat

Construction of a predictive model for osteoporosis risk in men: using the IOF 1-min osteoporosis test

OBJECTIVE

To construct a clinical prediction nomogram model using the 1-min IOF osteoporosis risk test as an evaluation tool for male osteoporosis.

METHODS

The 1-min test results and the incidence of osteoporosis were collected from 354 patients in the osteoporotic clinic of our hospital. LASSO regression model and multi-factor logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of osteoporosis in patients, and the risk prediction model of osteoporosis was established. Verify with an additional 140 objects.

RESULTS

We used logistic regression to construct a nomogram model. According to the model, the AUC value of the training set was 0.760 (0.704-0.817). The validation set has an AUC value of 0.806 (0.733-0.879). The test set AUC value is 0.714 (0.609-0.818). The calibration curve shows that its advantage is that the deviation correction curve of the nomogram model can maintain a good consistency with the ideal curve. In terms of clinical applicability, compared with the "total intervention" and "no intervention" schemes, the clinical net return rate of the nomogram model showed certain advantages.

CONCLUSION

Using the 1-min osteoporosis risk test provided by IOF, we built a male osteoporosis risk prediction model with good prediction effect, which can provide greater reference and help for clinicians.

Prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Italy and validation of decision rules for referring women for bone densitometry

We report the prevalence of osteoporosis, osteopenia, and fractures in a cohort of Italian women randomly recruited among the general population and validate the use of clinical guidelines in referring women for bone density testing. We enrolled in the study 995 healthy women (age range 45-92 years). A bone density test at the lumbar spine and femur was performed and a questionnaire on osteoporosis risk factors completed for all patients. The prevalence of osteoporosis was 33.67 %, that of osteopenia was 46.63, and 19.7 % were normal at bone density testing. Osteoporotic women were generally older and thinner, with a shorter period of estrogen exposure. The prevalence of fractures was 21.9 %, and fractured women had a lower bone density, were older, and had a longer postmenopausal period. Clinical guidelines for referring women for bone density testing performed poorly (the best performance was 68 %). This is the first study providing data on the prevalence of osteoporosis/osteopenia and of fractures in a cohort of healthy postmenopausal women. Known risk factors influence bone density and risk of fractures. The role of screening in detecting women with postmenopausal osteoporosis is far from optimal.