Potential impact of reduced tobacco use on life and health expectancies in Belgium

Does Tobacco Affect Economy?

OBJECTIVE

The still debatable contribution of tobacco to the economy demands further discussion as tobacco remains controversial commodity due to its adverse health impacts. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between tobacco and the economy using macroeconomics indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth. As a comparison, we include the tobacco price bands in USA because the sector is one of dominant affecting the economy and the price in some main areas in America is incredibly competitive.

METHODS

This paper use tobacco data and Macroeconomics Indicators from Euromonitor International and World Bank Data. We extend linear regression models by controlling both the serial correlation and endogeneity bias problems. We also observe the properties in the ARMA(2,2) data generating process.

RESULTS

We document that tobacco tends to affect the USA's future economy but not Indonesia. In our robustness check, we conduct a SUR analysis to control the contemporaneous correlations among Asian markets. We further document that tobacco variables tend not to affect the economy in the Asian markets.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that the contribution of tobacco commodity to the economy is overstated. Therefore, the comprehensive and massive tobacco control implementations should be undertaken hence is relevant to put into actions.

Clustering of unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, self-rated health and disability

The main objective was to identify sociodemographic characteristics of the population at risk for a greater clustering of unhealthy behaviors and to evaluate the association of such clustering with self-rated health status and disability. Data come from the 2017 Spanish National Health Survey with a sample of 21,947 participants of 15 years of age or older. Based on tobacco consumption, risk drinking, unbalanced diet, sedentarism, and body mass index <18.5/≥25 we created two indicators of risk factor clustering: 1) Number of unhealthy behaviors (0-5); and 2) Unhealthy lifestyle index (score: 0-15). Self-rated health was dichotomized into "optimal" and "suboptimal," and disability was classified as "no disability," "mild," and "severe" based on the Global Activity Limitation Index (GALI). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) adjusted for covariates using generalized linear models using the clustering count variable, and dose-response curves using the unhealthy lifestyle index. Most participants (77.4%) reported 2 or more risk factors, with men, middle-age individuals, and those with low socioeconomic status being more likely to do so. Compared to those with 0-1 risk factors, the PR for suboptimal health was 1.26 (95% CI:1.18-1.34) for those reporting 2-3 factors, reaching 1.43 (95% CI:1.31-1.55) for 4-5 factors. The PR for severe activity limitation was 1.66 (95% CI:1.35-2.03) for those reporting 2-3 factors and 2.06 (95% CI:1.59-2.67) for 4-5 factors. The prevalence of both health indicators increased in a non-linear fashion as the unhealthy lifestyle index score increased, increasing rapidly up to 5 points, slowing down between 5 and 10 points, and plateauing afterwards.

Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool "DYNAMO-HIA", this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.