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Espenhain L, Ethelberg S, Mortensen LH, Christiansen LE. Automated local lockdowns for SARS-CoV-2 epidemic control-assessment of effect by controlled interrupted time series analysis. IJID REGIONS 2024; 12:100380. [PMID: 38911235 PMCID: PMC11186853 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Revised: 05/22/2024] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 06/25/2024]
Abstract
Objectives During the COVID-19 pandemic, broad non-pharmaceutical interventions such as national lockdowns were effective but had significant drawbacks, prompting targeted approaches, such as Denmark's localized lockdowns, based on specific epidemiological criteria. This study evaluates the effect of Denmark's automated local lockdown strategy on epidemic control to inform future response. Methods This was a register-based controlled interrupted time series analysis, examining SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in Danish parishes from March to September 2021. The matching of control parishes was based on location, time, and pre-lockdown infection trends, with the lockdown's start defined as the day after a parish exceeded the lockdown criteria. Follow-up included 3-week pre-lockdown and 2-week post-lockdown. Results A total of 30 parishes were mandated to lockdown, approximately 3.5% of the population of Denmark. A total of 94 control parishes were used as 109 controls. The decrease in the incidence during the 2-week follow-up period after the initiation of the lockdown was 13% points higher in case parishes: in case parishes, the incidence was reduced by 78% compared with 65% in control parishes. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that local lockdowns did have a positive effect in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making them valuable in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and an important alternative to national lockdowns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Espenhain
- Department of Infectious Disease epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Steen Ethelberg
- Department of Infectious Disease epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Laust Hvas Mortensen
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Murphy C, Lim WW, Mills C, Wong JY, Chen D, Xie Y, Li M, Gould S, Xin H, Cheung JK, Bhatt S, Cowling BJ, Donnelly CA. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2023; 381:20230132. [PMID: 37611629 PMCID: PMC10446910 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2023.0132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
Abstract
Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caitriona Murphy
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Wey Wen Lim
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Cathal Mills
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jessica Y. Wong
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Dongxuan Chen
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanmy Xie
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Mingwei Li
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Susan Gould
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK
| | - Hualei Xin
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Justin K. Cheung
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Samir Bhatt
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Kobenhavn, Denmark
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Benjamin J. Cowling
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Christl A. Donnelly
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Galasso I. Inequalities in the Challenges Affecting Children and their Families during COVID-19 with School Closures and Reopenings: A Qualitative Study. Public Health Ethics 2022; 15:240-255. [PMID: 36727102 PMCID: PMC9883729 DOI: 10.1093/phe/phac030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
School closure is one of the most debated measures undertaken to contain the spread of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic has devastating health and socio-economic effects and must be contained, but schools play a vital role in present and future well-being, capabilities and health of children. We examine the detrimental consequences of both the closure and reopening of schools, by focusing on inequalities in the challenges affecting children and their families. This paper is grounded on Irish and Italian data from a multi-national longitudinal qualitative interview study. Research participants articulated a variety of issues and challenges that highlight inequalities in access to education during school closures, in the supportiveness of home setting, and in school preparedness to reopen, often mirroring or exacerbating pre-existing inequalities. The reported unequal lived experiences indicate that some harms are actionable, and already suggest some potential harm mitigation strategies. We conclude by advocating for enhanced public consultation to help mitigate the consequences of public dilemmas in general, and to help detect and tackle inadequacies and inequalities for school children through and beyond the pandemic, by learning from the experience of the concerned actors.
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Assavanopakun P, Sirikul W, Promkutkao T, Promkutkeo S, Panumasvivat J. Focus on High School: Factors Associated with Creating Harmony between the Educational Transition and Adolescents' Well-Being. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:9261. [PMID: 35954614 PMCID: PMC9368253 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19159261] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
The transition from online to on-site education was difficult due to a lack of standardized school guidance for school reopening. Even though schools have reopened, uncertainty about the COVID-19 situation and the capacity of the school to maintain safe school operations to mitigate risks may increase hesitancy among students and parents to participate in on-site studying. Rapid-response surveys of students and parents can provide information to stakeholders on how learning and well-being can best be supported during the educational transition in each context. The aim of this study was to explore the hesitancy of high-school students and the factors that influenced their hesitancy to return to school on site. An online cross-sectional survey was distributed to high-school students in an urban district of Chiang Mai, Thailand, during the fourth wave of the pandemic from 17 November to 13 December 2021. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to explore factors related to the students' hesitancy to attend on-site education. With a response rate of 10.2% of the targeted study population, the 1266 participants revealed that 15.9% of them had very-high- and extremely high-level hesitancy to study on site, which was associated with less negative moods while studying online (aOR, 1.69; p, 0.016) and a greater fear of infection after returning to school (aOR, 2.95; p, 0.001). Increased readiness to return to school on site (aOR, 0.28; p, 0.001) and discussing COVID-19 prevention with family or friends (aOR, 0.71; p, 0.016) were also associated with a lower hesitancy of students. Only 5.6% of the students reported being hesitant to receive the COVID-19 vaccination. However, no significant associations were found between schooling hesitancy and their willingness to get vaccinated, nor the frequency of students' outside activities. High-school students who experience negative moods during online studying should be monitored and receive additional support if the reopening is postponed. More opportunities to discuss COVID-19 prevention with family or friends, as well as a higher level of readiness, may increase the willingness to return to school on site. Local authorities and schools need to strengthen communication and coordination mechanisms to reduce parents' and students' schooling hesitancy by providing explicit information about the COVID-19 situation and risk-mitigation measures, along with normalizing messages about fear and anxiety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pheerasak Assavanopakun
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand; (P.A.); (T.P.); (J.P.)
| | - Wachiranun Sirikul
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand; (P.A.); (T.P.); (J.P.)
- Center of Data Analytics and Knowledge Synthesis for Health Care, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
| | - Tharntip Promkutkao
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand; (P.A.); (T.P.); (J.P.)
| | - Suchat Promkutkeo
- School of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand;
| | - Jinjuta Panumasvivat
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand; (P.A.); (T.P.); (J.P.)
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