Pre-fracture quality of life predicts 1-year survival in elderly patients with hip fracture-development of a new scoring system

Surgical management and outcomes following atypical subtrochanteric femoral fractures - results from a matched-pair analysis of the registry for geriatric trauma of the German Trauma Society

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The outcomes of patients with atypical subtrochanteric fractures (ASFs) remain unclear. Data from a large international geriatric trauma registry were analysed to examine the outcome of patients with ASFs compared to patients with typical osteoporotic subtrochanteric fractures (TSFs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma of the German Trauma Society (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie [DGU]) (ATR-DGU) were analysed. All patients treated surgically for ASFs or TSFs were included in this analysis. Across both fracture types, a paired matching approach was conducted, where statistical twins were formed based on background characteristics sex, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and walking ability. In-house mortality and mortality rates at the 120-day follow-up, as well as mobility at 7 and 120 days, the reoperation rate, hospital discharge management, the hospital readmission rate at the 120-day follow-up, health-related quality of life, type of surgical treatment and anti-osteoporotic therapy at 7 and 120 days, were assessed as outcome measures using a multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Amongst the 1,800 included patients, 1,781 had TSFs and 19 had ASFs. Logistic regression analysis revealed that patients with ASFs were more often treated with closed intramedullary nailing (RR = 3.59, p < 0.001) and had a higher probability of vitamin D supplementation as osteoporosis therapy at 120 days (RR = 0.88, p < 0.002). Patients with ASFs were also more likely to live at home after surgery (RR = 1.43, p < 0.001), and they also tended to continue living at home more often than patients with TSFs (RR = 1.33, p < 0.001). Accordingly, patients with TSFs had a higher relative risk of losing their self-sufficient living status, as indicated by increased rates of patients living at home preoperatively and being discharged to nursing homes (RR = 0.19, p < 0.001) or other hospitals (RR = 0.00, p < 0.001) postoperatively.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical treatment of ASFs was marked by more frequent use of closed intramedullary fracture reduction. Furthermore, patients with ASFs were more likely to be discharged home and died significantly less often in the given timeframe. The rate of perioperative complications, as indicated by nonsignificant reoperation rates, as well as patient walking abilities during the follow-up period, remained unaffected.

Predictive Model of Recovery to Prefracture Activities-of-Daily-Living Status One Year after Fragility Hip Fracture

Background and Objectives: Achieving prefracture functional status is a critical objective following a hip fracture, yet fewer than half of patients reach this milestone. The adoption of tools for assessing functional outcomes is increasingly recognized as essential for evaluating recovery following treatment for fragility hip fractures. We developed multivariable clinical prediction criteria to estimate the likelihood of patients regaining their prefracture activities-of-daily-living (ADL) status one year after sustaining a fragility hip fracture. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort of patients treated for fragility hip fractures at a university-affiliated tertiary care center between February 2017 and April 2019 served as the basis for developing and internally validating the clinical prediction criteria. We applied a multivariable fractional polynomial method to integrate several continuous predictors into a binary logistic regression model. Results: The study included 421 patients, 324 (77%) of whom reported regaining their prefracture activities-of-daily-living level one year after experiencing fragility hip fractures. Significant predictors, such as the prefracture Barthel index, EQ-VAS score, and treatment modality, were incorporated into the predictive model. The model demonstrated excellent discriminative power (AuROC of 0.86 [95% CI 0.82-0.91]) and satisfactory calibration. Conclusions: The predictive model has significant discriminative ability with good calibration and provides clinicians with a means to forecast the recovery trajectories of individual patients one year after a fragility hip fracture, which could be useful because prompt clinical decision-making is aided by this information. Patients and caregivers can also be counseled and encouraged to follow up with the medical activities and interventions deemed essential by doctors who used the prediction tool. Access to the model is provided through a web application. External validation is warranted in order to prove its applicability and generalizability.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of preoperative predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery

Hip fractures are a global health problem with a high postoperative mortality rate. Preoperative predictors for early mortality could be used to optimise and personalise healthcare strategies. This study aimed to identify predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery. Cohort studies examining independent preoperative predictors for mortality following hip fracture surgery were identified through a systematic search on Scopus and PubMed. Predictors for 30-day mortality were the primary outcome, and predictors for mortality within 1 year were secondary outcomes. Primary outcomes were analysed with random-effects meta-analyses. Confidence in the cumulative evidence was assessed using the GRADE criteria. Secondary outcomes were synthesised narratively. Thirty-three cohort studies involving 462,699 patients were meta-analysed. Five high-quality evidence predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: age per year (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07), ASA score ≥ 3 (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 2.12-3.42), male gender (OR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.85-2.18), institutional residence (OR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.31-2.49), and metastatic cancer (OR: 2.83, 95% CI: 2.58-3.10). Additionally, six moderate-quality evidence predictors were identified: chronic renal failure, dementia, diabetes, low haemoglobin, heart failures, and a history of any malignancy. Weak evidence was found for non-metastatic cancer. This review found relevant preoperative predictors which could be used to identify patients who are at high risk of 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery. For some predictors, the prognostic value could be increased by further subcategorising the conditions by severity.

Health-Related Quality of Life Scores and Values as Predictors of Mortality: A Scoping Review

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) can be assessed through measures that can be generic or disease specific, encompass several independent scales, or employ holistic assessment (i.e., the derivation of composite scores). HRQoL measures may identify patients with differential risk profiles. However, the usefulness of generic and holistic HRQoL measures in identifying patients at higher risk of death is unclear. The aim of the present study was to undertake a scoping review of generic, holistic assessments of HRQoL as predictors of mortality in general non-patient populations and clinical sub-populations with specified conditions or risk factors in persons 18 years or older. Five databases were searched from 18 June to 29 June 2020 to identify peer-reviewed published articles. The searches were updated in August 2022. Reference lists of included and cited articles were also searched. Of 2552 articles screened, 110 met criteria for inclusion. Over one-third of studies were from North America. Most studies pertained to sub-populations with specified conditions and/or risk factors, almost a quarter for people with cardiovascular diseases. There were no studies pertaining to people with mental health conditions. Nearly three-quarters of the studies used a RAND Corporation QoL instrument, predominantly the SF-36, and nearly a quarter, a utility instrument, predominantly the EQ-5D. HRQoL was associated with mortality in 67 of 72 univariate analyses (92%) and 100 of 109 multivariate analyses (92%). HRQoL was found to be associated with mortality in the general population and clinical sub-populations with physical health conditions. Whether this relationship holds in people with mental health conditions is not known. HRQoL assessment may be useful for screening and/or monitoring purposes to understand how people perceive their health and well-being and as an indicator of mortality risk, encouraging better-quality and timely patient care to support and maximize what may be a patient's only modifiable outcome.

SF-36 physical function and general health domains are independent predictors of acute hospital length of stay after hip fracture surgery

OBJECTIVE

The demographics and co-morbidities of individuals may impact healthcare consumption, but it is less understood how premorbid physical and mental function may influence these effects. The aim of this study is to determine patient's pre-fracture quality of life and mobility affect acute hospital burden in the management of hip fracture, using length of stay (LOS) as a proxy for healthcare resource.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective study which investigated hip fracture patients who underwent surgery over the period of 2017-2020. Variables collected include LOS, age, gender, race, marital status, payer type, ASA score, time to surgery (TTS), type of surgery, fracture type, POD1 mobilization, discharge disposition, pre-fracture SF-36, EQ-5D and Parker mobility score (PMS) based on patient's recollection on admission. These variables were correlated with LOS using binary logistic regression on SAS.

RESULTS

There were 1045 patients, and mean age was 79.5 + 8.57 (range 60-105) years with an average LOS 13.64 + 10.0 days (range 2-114). On univariate analysis, PMS, EQ-5D and all domains of SF-36 except bodily pain (BP), emotional role and mental health were associated significantly with LOS. Amongst the QOL and PMS scores, only the domains of SF-36 Physical Function (PF) (OR = 0.993, p = 0.0068) and General Health perception (GH) (OR 0.992, p = 0.0230) remained significant on the multivariate model.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that poor premorbid scores of SF36 PF and GH are independent factors associated with longer LOS in hip fracture patients after surgery, regardless of fracture type, age and ASA status. Hence, premorbid SF36 PF and GH can be used to identify patients that are at risk of prolonged hospital stay and employ targeted strategies to facilitate rehabilitation and discharge planning.

Prediction of long-term mortality following hip fracture surgery: evaluation of three risk models

INTRODUCTION

Several prognostic models have been developed for mortality in hip fracture patients, but their accuracy for long-term prediction is unclear. This study evaluates the performance of three models assessing 30-day, 1-year and 8-year mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the model developed by Holt et al. and the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients admitted with a fractured hip between January 2012 and June 2013 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Relevant variables used by the three models were collected, as were mortality data. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by determining risk groups for each model, comparing differences in mortality using Kaplan-Meier curves, and by assessing positive and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

A total of 344 patients were included for analysis. Observed mortality rates were 6.1% after 30 days, 19.1% after 1 year and 68.6% after 8 years. The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. demonstrated good to excellent discrimination and adequate calibration for both short- and long-term mortality prediction, with similar clinical usefulness measures. The HEMA demonstrated inferior prediction of 30-day and 8-year mortality, with worse discriminative abilities and a significant lack of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. allowed for accurate identification of low- and high-risk patients for both short- and long-term mortality after a fracture of the hip. The HEMA performed poorly. When considering predictive performance and ease of use, the NHFS seems most suitable for implementation in daily clinical practice.

Long-term outcome collection after hip fracture in Ireland: a systematic review of traditional and grey literature

This review aimed to describe the methods and results from recent Irish research about post-acute hip fracture outcomes. Meta-analyses estimate the 30-day and 1-year mortality rate at 5% and 24% respectively. There is a need for standardised recommendations about which data should be recorded to aid national and international comparisons.

PURPOSE

Over 3700 older adults experience hip fracture in Ireland annually. The Irish Hip Fracture Database national audit records acute hospital data but lacks longer-term outcomes. This systematic review aimed to summarise and appraise recent Irish studies that collected long-term hip fracture outcomes and to generate pooled estimates where appropriate.

METHODS

Electronic databases and grey literature were searched in April 2022 for articles, abstracts, and theses published from 2005 to 2022. Eligible studies were appraised by two authors and outcome collection details summarised. Meta-analyses of studies with common outcomes were conducted where the sample was generalisable to the broad hip fracture population.

RESULTS

In total, 84 studies were identified from 20 clinical sites. Outcomes commonly recorded were mortality (n = 48 studies; 57%), function (n = 24; 29%), residence (n = 20; 24%), bone-related outcomes (n = 20; 24%), and mobility (n = 17; 20%). One year post-fracture was the most frequent time point, and patient telephone contact was the most common collection method used. Most studies did not report follow-up rates. Two meta-analyses were performed. The pooled estimate for one-year mortality was 24.2% (95% CI = 19.1-29.8%, I² = 93.8%, n = 12 studies, n = 4220 patients), and for 30-day mortality was 4.7% (95% CI = 3.6-5.9%, I² = 31.3%, n = 7 studies, n = 2092 patients). Reports of non-mortality outcomes were deemed inappropriate for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

Hip fracture long-term outcomes collected in Irish research are broadly in line with international recommendations. Heterogeneity of measures and poor reporting of methods and findings limits collation of results. Recommendations for standard outcome definitions nationally are warranted. Further research should explore the feasibility of recording long-term outcomes during routine hip fracture care in Ireland to enhance national audit.

Mortality following hip fracture: Trends and geographical variations over the last SIXTY years

INTRODUCTION

The management of hip fractures has advanced on all aspects from prevention pre-operatively, specialised hip fracture units, early operative intervention and rehabilitation. This is in line with the appropriate recognition over the past years of an important presentation with significant mortality and socioeconomic consequences of ever increasing incidence in an aging population. It is therefore imperative to continue to gather data on the incidence and trends of hip fractures to guide future management planning of this important presentation.

METHODS

A review of all articles published on the outcome after hip fracture over a twenty year period (1999-2018) was undertaken to determine any changes that had occurred in the demographics and mortality over this period. This article complements and expands upon the findings of a previous article by the authors assessing a four decade period (1959 - 1998) and attempts to present trends and geographical variations over sixty years.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients sustaining hip fractures continues to be steadily increasing at approximately just over 1 year of age for every 5-year time period. The mean age of patients sustaining hip fractures increased from 73 years (1960s) to 81 years (2000s) to 82 years (2010s). Over the six decade period one-year mortality has reduced from an overall mean of 27% (1960s) to 20% (2010s). The proportion of female hip fractures has decreased from 84% (1960s) to 70% (2010s). There is a decreasing trend in the proportion of intracapsular fractures from 54% (1970s) to 49% (2000s) and 48% (2010s).

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that significant progress has been made with preventative planning, medical management, specialised orthogeriatric units and surgical urgency all playing a role in the improvements in mean age of hip fracture incidence and reduction in mortality rates. While geographical variations do still exist there has been an increase in the study of hip fractures globally with results now being published from more widespread institutions indicating appropriate increased attention and commitment to an ever-increasing presentation.

Abdominal CT Body Composition Thresholds Using Automated AI Tools for Predicting 10-year Adverse Outcomes

Background CT-based body composition measures derived from fully automated artificial intelligence tools are promising for opportunistic screening. However, body composition thresholds associated with adverse clinical outcomes are lacking. Purpose To determine population and sex-specific thresholds for muscle, abdominal fat, and abdominal aortic calcium measures at abdominal CT for predicting risk of death, adverse cardiovascular events, and fragility fractures. Materials and Methods In this retrospective single-center study, fully automated algorithms for quantifying skeletal muscle (L3 level), abdominal fat (L3 level), and abdominal aortic calcium were applied to noncontrast abdominal CT scans from asymptomatic adults screened from 2004 to 2016. Longitudinal follow-up documented subsequent death, adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular event, and heart failure), and fragility fractures. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to derive thresholds for body composition measures to achieve optimal ROC curve performance and high specificity (90%) for 10-year risks. Results A total of 9223 asymptomatic adults (mean age, 57 years ± 7 [SD]; 5152 women and 4071 men) were evaluated (median follow-up, 9 years). Muscle attenuation and aortic calcium had the highest diagnostic performance for predicting death, with areas under the ROC curve of 0.76 for men (95% CI: 0.72, 0.79) and 0.72 for women (95% CI: 0.69, 0.76) for muscle attenuation. Sex-specific thresholds were higher in men than women (P < .001 for muscle attenuation for all outcomes). The highest-performing markers for risk of death were muscle attenuation in men (31 HU; 71% sensitivity [164 of 232 patients]; 72% specificity [1114 of 1543 patients]) and aortic calcium in women (Agatston score, 167; 70% sensitivity [152 of 218 patients]; 70% specificity [1427 of 2034 patients]). Ninety-percent specificity thresholds for muscle attenuation for both risk of death and fragility fractures were 23 HU (men) and 13 HU (women). For aortic calcium and risk of death and adverse cardiovascular events, 90% specificity Agatston score thresholds were 1475 (men) and 735 (women). Conclusion Sex-specific thresholds for automated abdominal CT-based body composition measures can be used to predict risk of death, adverse cardiovascular events, and fragility fractures. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Ohliger in this issue.

Surgical Management and Outcomes following Pathologic Hip Fracture—Results from a Propensity Matching Analysis of the Registry for Geriatric Trauma of the German Trauma Society

Background and Objectives: The outcomes of patients with pathologic hip fractures remain unclear. Data from a large international geriatric trauma registry were analyzed to examine the outcomes of patients with pathologic hip fractures compared with patients with typical osteoporotic hip fractures. Materials and Methods: Data from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma of the German Trauma Society (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie (DGU)) (ATR-DGU) were analyzed. All patients treated surgically for osteoporotic or pathologic hip fractures were included in this analysis. Across both fracture types, a 2:1 optimal propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted. In-house mortality rate and mortality at the 120-day follow-up, as well as mobility after 7 and 120 days, reoperation rate, discharge management from the hospital and readmission rate to the hospital until the 120-day follow-up were analyzed as outcome parameters for the underlying fracture type—pathologic or osteoporotic. Results: A total of 29,541 cases met the inclusion criteria. Of the patients included, 29,330 suffered from osteoporotic fractures, and 211 suffered from pathologic fractures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed no differences between the two fracture types in terms of mortality during the acute hospital stay, reoperation during the initial acute hospital stay, walking ability after seven days and the likelihood of being discharged back home. Walking ability and hospital readmission remained insignificant at the 120-day follow-up as well. However, the odds of passing away within the first 120 days were significantly higher for patients suffering from pathologic hip fractures (OR: 3.07; p = 0.003). Conclusions: Surgical treatment of pathologic hip fractures was marked by a more frequent use of arthroplasty in per- and subtrochanteric fractures. Furthermore, the mortality rate among patients suffering from pathologic hip fractures was elevated in the midterm. The complication rate, as indicated by the rate of readmission to the hospital and the necessity for reoperation, remained unaffected.

Development of a new comprehensive preoperative risk score for predicting 1-year mortality in patients with hip fracture: the HULP-HF score. Comparison with 3 other risk prediction models

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop a new comprehensive preoperative risk score for predicting mortality during the first year after hip fracture (HF) and its comparison with 3 other risk prediction models.

METHODS

All patients admitted consecutively with a fragility HF during 1 year in a co-managed orthogeriatric unit at a university hospital were assessed and followed for 1 year. Factors independently associated with 1-year mortality were used to create the HULP-HF (Hospital Universitario La Paz - Hip Fracture) score. The predictive validity, discrimination and calibration of the HULP-HF score, the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scale, the abbreviated Charlson comorbidity index (a-CCI) and the Nottingham Hip Fracture score (NHFS) were compared. Discriminative performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit-test.

RESULTS

509 patients were included. 1-year mortality was 23.2%. The 8 independent mortality risk factors included in the HULP-HF score were age >85 years, baseline functional and cognitive impairment, low body mass index, heart disease, low hand-grip strength, anaemia on admission, and secondary hyperparathyroidism associated with vitamin D deficiency. The AUC was 0.79 in the HULP-HF score, 0.66 in the NHFS, 0.61 in the abbreviated CCI and 0.59 in the ASA scale. The HULP-HF score, the NHFS and the abbreviated CCI all presented good levels of calibration (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The HULP-HF score has a predictive capacity for 1-year mortality in HF patients slightly superior to that of other previously existing scores.

Efficiently stratifying mid-term death risk in femoral fractures in the elderly: introducing the ASAgeCoGeCC Score

We evaluated mortality in a cohort of hip fracture patients and implemented a risk prediction score named ASAgeCoGeCC with excellent discrimination. It allowed to separate patients in 3 different risk groups with distinct mortality rates. Recognition of the heterogeneity of patients with femoral fractures may have relevant implications for their management.

INTRODUCTION

Usage of risk prediction models to estimate postoperative mortality risk for hip fracture patients represents a useful tool to give insight in the prognosis and assist in clinical decision-making. The aim of this study was to identify a predictive model able to determine the possible presence of distinct subgroups of hip fracture patients by risk classes in the mid-term.

METHODS

Three hundred twenty-three hip fracture patients were evaluated, and mortality rates at 30 days, 1, 2, and 4 years were calculated. A multivariate logistic regression analysis using mortality 4 years after fracture as a dependent variable found ASA score, age, cognitive status, gender, and Charlson Comorbidities Index (CCI) as significant risk factors. Using these items, a score named ASAgeCoGeCC was implemented and compared with CCI and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve for ASAgeCoGeCC was always greater than that of CCI and NHFS and ranged between 0.804 and 0.820 suggesting an excellent discrimination. The ASAgeCoGeCC logistic model showed also a good calibration. Patients were divided in 3 groups: a low risk group, an intermediate risk group with an odds ratio for 4-year mortality of 5.6 (95% CI 2.9-10.6), and a high risk group with an odds ratio 21.6 (95% CI 10.6-44).

CONCLUSION

The ASAgeCoGeCC Score is a predictive tool for mortality after hip fracture with good calibration and excellent discrimination properties. It is the first scoring system stratifying hip fracture patients' mortality at 4 years from fracture.

30-day mortality in patients after hip fracture surgery: A comparison of the Charlson Comorbidity Index score and ASA score used in two prediction models

OBJECTIVE

To compare the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification used in two prediction models for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Data from 3651 patients (mean age: 83 years) from a Norwegian University Hospital were retrospectively obtained and randomly divided into two cohorts: a model cohort (n = 1825) to develop two prediction models with CCI and ASA as the main predictors, and a validation cohort (n = 1826) to assess the predictive ability of both models. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve determined the best model to predict mortality.

RESULTS

Area under the ROC curve at 30 days was 0.726 (p = 0.988) for both the CCI- and ASA-model. The chosen cut-off-points on the ROC curve for CCI- and ASA-model corresponded to similar model sensitivities of 0.657 and specificities of 0.680 and 0.679, respectively. Hence, each model predicts correctly 66% (n = 96) of the mortalities and 68% (n = 1132 and n = 1131) of the survivals. 23% (n = 33) of the mortalities were predicted by neither model.

CONCLUSION

The CCI- and ASA-model had equal predictive ability of 30-day mortality after hip fracture. Considering the effort involved in calculating Charlson Comorbidity Index score, the ASA score may be the preferred tool to predict the 30-day mortality after hip fracture.

Computed tomographic measurements of the psoas muscle as a predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients: Muscle attenuation helps predict mortality in hip fracture patients

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, sarcopenia has been identified as an important risk factor of patient prognosis. The aim of this study was to determine the association between prognosis of hip fracture and sarcopenia and to evaluate the prognostic performance of psoas muscle volume and attenuation measurements in hip computed tomography (CT).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with hip fracture in our institution from 2014 to 2017. Baseline character data and hip CT scans were obtained. Two readers independently measured muscle size (cross-sectional area) and attenuation of the psoas muscle at the L4 vertebra on CT scans. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the association between mortality and muscle index (the sum of the left and right muscle sizes divided by patient height) and muscle attenuation after adjusting for demographic variables. In addition, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained.

RESULTS

In the 462 patients included in the study, in-hospital mortality was 4%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that muscle attenuation was a risk factor for mortality. Among baseline characteristics, age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, and albumin were significant variables for mortality. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of muscle attenuation for prediction of death was 0.839 (0.803-0.872) with 84.2% sensitivity and 69.5% specificity. Furthermore, when we combined all independent factors according to the results, the AUC was 0.929 (0.902-0.951) with 84.2% sensitivity and 93.6% specificity for prediction of mortality among hip fracture patients.

CONCLUSION

Among many variables, the most significant was muscle attenuation. CT is the most typical modality to determine treatment of hip fracture patients. Measuring muscle size and attenuation is simple using PACS software. Muscle attenuation has significant value for predicting the prognosis of hip patients.

Early Surgery Does Not Improve Outcomes for Patients with Periprosthetic Femoral Fractures-Results from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma of the German Trauma Society

Background and Objectives: Appropriate timing of surgery for periprosthetic femoral fractures (PFFs) in geriatric patients remains unclear. Data from a large international geriatric trauma register were analyzed to examine the outcome of patients with PFF with respect to the timing of surgical stabilization. Materials and Methods: The Registry for Geriatric Trauma of the German Trauma Society (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie (DGU)) (ATR-DGU) was analyzed. Patients treated surgically for PFF were included in this analysis. As outcome parameters, in-house mortality rate and mortality at the 120-day follow-up as well as mobility, the EQ5D index score and reoperation rate were analyzed in relation to early (<48 h) or delayed (≥48 h) surgical stabilization. Results: A total of 1178 datasets met the inclusion criteria; 665 fractures were treated with osteosynthesis (56.4%), and 513 fractures were treated by implant change (43.5%). In contrast to the osteosynthesis group, the group with implant changes underwent delayed surgical treatment more often. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of mortality rate (p = 0.310), walking ability (p = 0.239) and EQ5D index after seven days (p = 0.812) revealed no significant differences between early (<48 h) and delayed (≥48 h) surgical stabilization. These items remained insignificant at the follow-up as well. However, the odds of requiring a reoperation within 120 days were significantly higher for delayed surgical treatment (OR: 1.86; p = 0.003). Conclusions: Early surgical treatment did not lead to decreased mortality rates in the acute phase or in the midterm. Except for the rate of reoperation, all other outcome parameters remained unaffected. Nevertheless, for most patients, early surgical treatment should be the goal, so as to achieve early mobilization and avoid secondary nonsurgical complications. If early stabilization is not possible, it can be assumed that orthogeriatric co-management will help protect these patients from further harm.

Increased perioperative mortality for femoral neck fractures in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): experience from the United Kingdom during the first wave of the pandemic

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented modern healthcare with an unprecedented challenge. At the peak of the pandemic, trauma and orthopaedic services at our institutions undertook internal restructuring, diverting resources to frontline medical care. Consequently, we sought to assess the impact on the elderly and comorbid patients presenting with femoral neck fractures, with a particular focus on 30-day mortality, length of stay, multidisciplinary team involvement and departmental structuring.

METHOD

A retrospective analysis of patients presenting with femoral neck fractures at three separate West London NHS Trusts was undertaken between March 11, 2020, to April 30, 2020. Length of stay, 30-day mortality and adherence to parameters constituting the best care evidence-based practice tariffs were compared between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive and negative patients. A similar comparison was also conducted between our cohort and the equivalent period in 2018 using data from the National Hip Fracture Database.

RESULTS

A total of 68 patients presenting with femoral neck fractures were identified, mean age 81 (range 38-98), 73% female. There were 10 confirmed/suspected cases of COVID-19 on admission and a further seven confirmed as inpatients. The 30-day mortality within our cohort was 11.76% compared to 6% nationally in 2018 (p = 0.045). Orthogeriatric reviews occurred within 72 h in 71% of cases compared to 88% in the equivalent 2018 period. Within the cohort, mean length of stay was 17.13 days (SD 5.6, range 8-27 days) for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients compared to 10 days (SD 8.7, range 1-53 days) for negative patients (p < 0.05). Thirty-two patients (47%) required increased packages of care on discharge or rehabilitation.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in 30-day mortality for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients presenting with femoral neck fractures is multifactorial, resulting from a combination of the direct effects of COVID-19 pneumonia as well as changes to the delivery of orthopaedic services. The provision of multidisciplinary care was directly affected by staff redeployment, particularly reorganisation of orthogeriatric services and lack of continuity of ward based clinical care. Our experiences have re-directed efforts towards the management of theatre teams, patient services and staffing, should we be faced with either a resurgence of COVID-19 or a future pandemic.

Hip fracture mortality: Predictive models

The preoperative estimation of the risk of mortality after a hip fracture is very useful to plan time of surgery and perioperative care, inform patients and families about the prognosis and allows comparisons between different units. Different models have been developed to stratify mortality risk, but they show heterogeneity in terms of type of population and variables included, monitoring the time and statistical methods used, which makes it difficult to establish comparisons between them. The vast majority of them are awaiting external validation in populations different from those in which they were originally proposed. So far, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) and the Orthopaedic Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (O-POSSUM) are the most commonly used models. The NHFS is simpler and faster to apply, and by not including intraoperative variables can be used at the time of admission.

Association between longitudinal clinical outcomes in patients with hip fracture and their pre-fracture place of residence

BACKGROUND

Clinical outcomes of patients with proximal femoral fracture within 1 year after hospitalization are presented. In particular, associations between the patients' clinical status and their pre-fracture residence were evaluated (community-dwelling vs nursing home).

METHODS

Patients aged ≥60 years with proximal femoral fractures were included in a prospective, single-centre observational study and followed for 12 months. Patients' clinical status at baseline was compared to their health status at follow-up 12 months later. Several standardized questionnaires were used to evaluate the patients' functional and cognitive capacity (e.g. Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale, Barthel Index, and Mini-Mental State Examination), mobility (timed up-and-go test, Tinetti Test, and Harris Hip Score), quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions index and EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale), and psychological status (Geriatric Depression Scale).

RESULTS

This study included 402 patients (mean age: 81.3 ± 8.2 years, 72% women). Patients stayed in hospital for 13.7 ± 6.1 days on average. The comparison of patients' clinical status at baseline and at 12-month follow-up revealed that the Mini-Mental State Examination and Charlson Comorbidity Index remained unchanged (P = 0.527 and P = 0.705), the level of depression (Geriatric Depression Scale) significantly decreased (P < 0.001), and quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions index) diminished (P < 0.001). Although patients' mobility increased after 12 months (P < 0.001 for timed up-and-go test and Harris Hip Score), their functional capacity was significantly reduced (P < 0.001 for Barthel Index and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale). Nursing home residents showed a significantly higher impairment at baseline than community-dwelling individuals and less improvement in functional and cognitive tests at 12-month follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes after hip fracture are significantly associated with patients' pre-fracture residence status. Place of residence as well as functional and cognitive status on admission may lead to differences in functional recovery and affect therapeutic and rehabilitative decision-making.

Effects of an abnormal mini-mental state examination score on postoperative outcomes in geriatric surgical patients: a meta-analysis

Background

Perioperative cognitive impairment (CI) following surgeries is prevalent in geriatric surgical population aged 60 and older. This meta-analysis was designed to investigate whether the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) has prognostic value on adverse outcomes in aged surgical patients.

Methods

PubMed, Cochrane, Embase and Medline through the Ovid were searched. Meta-analyses were carried out for CI versus non-cognitive impairment (NCI). Quality of evidence was assessed by the GRADE approach.

Results

One randomized controlled trial, two retrospective cohort trials, and 18 prospective cohort trials were included in the meta-analysis. Perioperative diagnosis of CI by the MMSE had higher rates of patients suffering from postoperative delirium (POD) [odd ratio (OR) 5.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.27, 7.71, P < 0.00001], in-hospital mortality (OR 7.51, 95% CI 2.17, 26.02, P = 0.001), mortality within 1 year (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.95,3.29, P < 0.00001). Postoperative CI patients had no extended length of stay in orthopedic [standardized mean difference (SMD) -0.10, 95% CI -0.20, 0.17, P = 0.91)] nor rehabilitation wards ((SMD, 0.04; 95% CI, − 0.23 to 0.31; P = 0.78).

Conclusion

Older patients with perioperative CI were more likely to suffer from POD and mortality. The MMSE showed certain value on risk stratification and prognosis evaluation in geriatric surgical population.

Trial registration

PROSPERO CRD42018108739.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12871-019-0735-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predictors of long-term survival after hip fractures?-5-year results of a prospective study in Germany

The incidence of hip fractures is increasing due to demographic transition. Data on long-term survival and influencing factors are sparse. Our prospective observational study with 395 patients shows a survival of 38% after 5 years. Significant risk factors were male gender, higher age, lower Barthel Index, lower Charlson Comorbidity Score, lower Mini-Mental State Examination, and delirium during hospitalization.

PURPOSE

The incidence of hip fractures is increasing due to demographic transition. Until now, they are associated with poor results and high mortality rates. Data on long-term survival and influencing factors are sparse. Therefore, a prospective observational study was conducted.

METHODS

Patients ≥ 60 years with hip fracture were included in this prospective study between 2009 and 2011. Demographic parameters, as well as ASA Score, pre-fracture Barthel Index and EQ-5D, Mini-Mental State Examination, Charlson Comorbidity Score, fracture type, type of surgical treatment, place of discharge, and arising complications were registered. Outcome parameter was survival during a 5-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

A total of 539 patients attended to our emergency room during the period of recruitment. The recruitment rate was 75%. A total of 402 patients were included; 7 were lost to follow-up, and 152 (38%) survived the study period. The mortality was more than 25% in the first year after fracture. Subsequently, it was between 7 and 9% per year. In the multivariate analysis, significant risk factors for dying were male gender (p = 0.002), higher age (p < 0.001), lower Charlson Comorbidity Score (p = 0.033), lower Barthel Index (p = 0.024), lower Mini-Mental State Examination (p = 0.002), and occurrence of delirium during hospitalization (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm poor results of geriatric patients after hip fracture. While early results might be influenced by optimal fracture care, long-term results seem to be determined by not changeable patient factors. Nevertheless, more than one third of surviving patients after 5 years justify the elaborate treatment algorithms for these fragile patients.

Low predictive power of comorbidity indices identified for mortality after acute arthroplasty surgery undertaken for femoral neck fracture

Aims

Our aim was to examine the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices, based on administrative data available before surgery, and to establish their predictive value for mortality for patients who underwent hip arthroplasty in the management of a femoral neck fracture.

Patients and Methods

We analyzed data from 42 354 patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between 2005 and 2012. Only the first operated hip was included for patients with bilateral arthroplasty. We obtained comorbidity data by linkage from the Swedish National Patient Register, as well as death dates from the national population register. We used univariable Cox regression models to predict mortality based on the comorbidity indices, as well as multivariable regression with age and gender. Predictive power was evaluated by a concordance index, ranging from 0.5 to 1 (with the higher value being the better predictive power). A concordance index less than 0.7 was considered poor. We used bootstrapping for internal validation of the results.

Results

The predictive power of mortality was poor for both the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices (concordance indices less than 0.7). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was superior to Elixhauser, and a model with age and gender was superior to both indices.

Conclusion

Preoperative comorbidity from administrative data did not predict mortality for patients with a hip fracture treated by arthroplasty. This was true even if association on group level existed.

Prognostic Relevance of Circulating 25OHD Fractions for Early Recovery and Survival in Patients with Hip Fracture †

The relation between vitamin-D (VD) status and healing after hip fracture had not been sufficiently addressed. Currently serum total 25-hydroxy-VD (t-25OHD) is the most widely used indicator of VD status. It is unclear whether free or bioavailable VD are better markers of 25OHD availability for tissues. Validity of overall cut-off values of t-25OHD is limited.

OBJECTIVES

(1) Assess serum levels of circulating forms of 25OHD in patients with hip fracture (PwHF: N = 199) compared to active controls without history of fracture (N = 102); (2) determine relationship between 25OHD fractions and functional performance after surgery (FPAS) and survival. The t-25OHD; VD binding protein and albumin levels were measured. Comorbidities; lifestyle; FPAS and survival were recorded at seven months. VD deficiency occurred more frequently in PwHF than in controls (72% vs. 38%). Patients with better FPAS showed higher 25OHD in all fractions than with poor FPAS. Controlled by lifestyle; 25OHD levels were independent predictive factors (p < 0.001). Good FPAS values forecasted longer survival (OR: 6.5_{CI:3.2⁻13.3}; p < 0.0001). All 25OHD forms showed a tendency to predict survival. Mortality rate decreased to 8% in individuals with t-25OHD levels of >22.6⁻39.5 nmol/L and increased to 14% with >40 nmol/L. These observations highlight the importance of serum 25OHD assessment and moderate VD substitution for healing and survival.

Factors Associated With Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients With Open Fractures

OBJECTIVES

To analyze FLOW data to identify baseline patient, injury, fracture, and treatment factors associated with lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 12-month postfracture.

DESIGN

Prognostic study using data from a prospective randomized controlled trial.

SETTING

Thirty-one clinical centers in the United States, Canada, Australia, and India.

PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS

One thousand four hundred twenty-seven patients with open fracture from the FLOW trial with complete 12-month Short Form-12 (SF-12) follow-up assessment and no missing data for selected baseline factors.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT

Physical Component Score (PCS) and the Mental Component Score (MCS) of the SF-12 at 12-month postfracture.

RESULTS

One thousand four hundred twenty-seven patients were included in the SF-12 PCS and MCS linear regression models. Smoking, lower preinjury SF-12 PCS and MCS, and work-related injuries were significantly associated with lower SF-12 PCS and MCS at 12-month postfracture. A lower extremity fracture and a wound that was not closed at initial irrigation and debridement were significantly associated with lower 12-month SF-12 PCS but not MCS. Only the adjusted mean difference for lower extremity fractures approached the minimally important difference for the SF-12 PCS.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a number of statistically significant baseline factors associated with lower HRQoL; however, only the presence of a lower extremity fracture approached clinical significance. More research is needed to quantify the impact of these factors on patients and to determine whether changes to modifiable factors at baseline will lead to clinically significant improvements in HRQoL after open fractures.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Pre-fracture hospitalization is associated with worse functional outcome and higher mortality in geriatric hip fracture patients

Hip fractures are common in elderly people. Despite great progress in surgical care, the outcomes of these patients remain disappointing. This study determined pre-fracture hospital admission as a prognostic variable for inferior functional outcomes and increased mortality rates in the perioperative phase and in the first postoperative year.

PURPOSE

The influence of a pre-fracture hospitalization on outcomes in hip fracture patients has not yet been investigated.

METHODS

Four hundred two patients who were surgically treated for hip fracture were prospectively enrolled. Patients with a hospital stay within the last 3 months prior to a hip fracture were compared to patients without a pre-fracture hospitalization. Postoperative functional outcomes and mortality rates were compared between groups at the time of hospital discharge and additionally at the six- and twelve-month follow-up appointments. A multivariate regression analysis was performed.

RESULTS

A pre-fracture hospitalization was reported by 67 patients (17%). In 63% of cases, patients were admitted due to non-surgical, general medical conditions. In 37% of cases, patients were treated due to a condition related to a surgical subject. In the multivariate analysis, pre-fracture hospitalization was an independent risk factor for reduced values on the Barthel Index at 6 months after surgery (B, -9.918; 95%CI of B, -19.001--0.835; p = 0.032) and on the Tinetti Test at 6 months (B, -2.914; 95%CI of B, -1.992--0.047; p = 0.047) and 12 months after surgery (B, -4.680; 95%CI of B, -8.042--1.319; p = 0.007). Pre-fracture hospitalization was additionally associated with increased mortality rates at 6 months (OR 1.971; 95%CI 1.052-3.693; p = 0.034) and 12 months after surgery (OR 1.888; 95%CI 1.010-9.529; p = 0.046).

CONCLUSIONS

Hip fracture patients with a recent pre-fracture hospital admission are at a substantial risk for inferior functional outcomes and increased mortality rates not only in the perioperative phase but also in the first postoperative year. As a simple dichotomous variable, pre-fracture hospitalization might be a suitable tool for future geriatric hip fracture screening instruments.

Is Preoperative Patient-Reported Health Status Associated with Mortality after Total Hip Replacement?

The influence of comorbidities and worse physical status on mortality following total hip replacement (THR) leads to the idea that patient-reported health status may also be a predictor of mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between patient-reported health status before THR and the risk of dying up to 5 years post-operatively. For these analyses, we used register data on 42,862 THR patients with primary hip osteoarthritis operated between 2008 and 2012. The relative survival ratio was calculated by dividing the observed survival in the patient group by age- and sex-adjusted expected survival of the general population. Pre-operative responses to the five EQ-5D-3L (EuroQol Group) dimensions along with age, sex, education status, year of surgery, and hospital type were used as independent variables. Results shown that, as a group, THR patients had a better survival than the general population. Broken down by the five EQ-5D-3L dimensions we observed differentiated survival patters. For all dimensions, those reporting extreme problems had higher mortality than those reporting moderate or no problems. In conclusion, worse health status according to the EQ-5-3L before THR is associated with higher mortality up to five years after surgery. EQ-5D-3L responses may be useful in a multifactorial individualized risk assessment before THR.

CT of Patients With Hip Fracture: Muscle Size and Attenuation Help Predict Mortality

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to determine the association between muscle cross-sectional area and attenuation, as measured on routine CT scans, and mortality in older patients with hip fracture.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective 10-year study of patients with hip fracture was conducted with the following inclusion criteria: age 65 years or older, first-time hip fracture treated with surgery, and CT of the chest, abdomen, or pelvis. This yielded 274 patients (70.4% women; mean [± SD] age, 81.3 ± 8.3 years). On each CT scan, two readers independently measured the size (cross-sectional area, indexed for patient height) and attenuation of the paravertebral muscle at T12 and the psoas muscle at L4. We then determined the association between overall mortality and the muscle size and muscle attenuation, while adjusting for demographic variables (age, sex, ethnicity, and body mass index), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI).

RESULTS

The overall mortality rate increased from 28.3% at 1 year to 79.5% at 5 years. Mortality was associated with decreased thoracic muscle size (odds ratio [OR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.49-0.87). This association persisted after adjusting for demographic variables (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50-0.95), the ASA classification (OR, 0.70; CI, 0.51-0.97), and the CCI (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00). Similarly, decreased survival was associated with decreased thoracic muscle attenuation after adjusting for all of these combinations of covariates (OR, 0.67-0.72; 95% CI, 0.49-0.99). Decreased lumbar muscle size and attenuation trended with decreased survival but did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

In older adults with hip fractures, CT findings of decreased thoracic paravertebral muscle size and attenuation are associated with decreased overall survival.

Excess mortality following hip fracture: impact of self-perceived health, smoking, and body mass index. A NOREPOS study

Self-perceived health, smoking, and body mass index measured years before the hip fracture predicted excess post-hip fracture mortality, and even hip fracture patients with the most favorable levels of these risk factors had higher mortality than subjects who did not fracture.

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate the impact of pre-fracture self-perceived health, smoking, and body mass index (BMI) on excess post-hip fracture mortality using matched peers without hip fracture as reference.

METHODS

The study was based on the Cohort of Norway (CONOR) consisting of 10 regional health studies (1994-2003) and the NOREPOS hip fracture database (1994-2008). A matched cohort design was used to compare survival between hip fracture patients and subjects without fracture (matched on gender, age at participation in CONOR, and study site). Subjects aged ≥60 years were included. Hazard ratios were estimated using stratified Cox regression. Age-standardized mortality was also calculated.

RESULTS

Overall, hip fracture patients (N = 3177) had a 2.26-fold (95 % CI 2.13, 2.40) increased mortality compared to matched subjects (N = 20,282). The highest excess mortality was found in hip fracture patients reporting poor health (HR 4.08, 95 % CI 3.17, 5.26) and daily smoking (HR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.89, 3.66) and in patients with BMI <18.5 (HR 3.07, 95 % CI 2.11, 4.47) prior to the fracture. However, excess mortality was also observed in hip fracture patients in all other categories of BMI, self-perceived health, and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Information on self-perceived health, smoking, and BMI collected years before hip fracture predicted excess post-hip fracture mortality, and even hip fracture patients with the most favorable levels of these risk factors had higher mortality than the matched subjects who did not fracture. This suggests that both pre-fracture health status and factors related to the hip fracture itself might affect post-hip fracture mortality.