Prediction models and questionnaires developed to predict vitamin D status in adults: a systematic review

Predicted vitamin D levels and risk of depression in the SUN Project: A prospective cohort study

The current study aimed to investigate the association between predicted vitamin D status and depression in a prospective Spanish cohort of university graduates. The SUN Project is a dynamic cohort study designed to investigate multiple aspects of health and lifestyle. Participants were asked to complete a comprehensive questionnaire consisting of 556 items, that included a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Participants initially free of depression were classified as incident cases if they reported a medical diagnosis of depression during follow-up. Serum vitamin D levels were predicted by a previously validated equation. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as vitamin D levels below 20 ng/mL. Cox models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We included 15,175 Spanish university graduates [mean (SD) age: 36.9 year (11.5)] followed-up for a median of 12.7 years. Among 192,976 person-years of follow-up, we identified 753 incident cases of depression. Participants with vitamin D deficiency had a 27% higher risk of depression as compared to those with vitamin D sufficiency (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.09-1.48; p = 0.002) after adjusting for potential confounders. Furthermore, a significant effect modification by female sex was observed with higher depression risks associated with vitamin D deficiency in women than in men (p for interaction = 0.034). In educated middle-aged Spanish adults, we observed a direct association between vitamin D deficiency and the risk of depression, that was stronger among women.

Role of Vitamin D in Head and Neck Cancer-Immune Function, Anti-Tumour Effect, and Its Impact on Patient Prognosis

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) describes a heterogeneous group of human neoplasms of the head and neck with high rates of morbidity and mortality, constituting about 3% of all cancers and ~1.5% of all cancer deaths. HNSCC constituted the seventh most prevalent human malignancy and the most common human cancer in the world in 2020, according to multi-population observations conducted by the GLOBOCAN group. Since approximately 60-70% of patients present with stage III/IV neoplastic disease, HNSCC is still one of the leading causes of death in cancer patients worldwide, with an overall survival rate that is too low, not exceeding 40-60% of these patients. Despite the application of newer surgical techniques and the implementation of modern combined oncological treatment, the disease often follows a fatal course due to frequent nodal metastases and local neoplastic recurrences. The role of micronutrients in the initiation, development, and progression of HNSCC has been the subject of considerable research. Of particular interest has been vitamin D, the pleiotropic biologically active fat-soluble family of secosteroids (vitamin-D-like steroids), which constitutes a key regulator of bone, calcium, and phosphate homeostasis, as well as carcinogenesis and the further development of various neoplasms. Considerable evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in cellular proliferation, angiogenesis, immunity, and cellular metabolism. A number of basic science, clinical, and epidemiological studies indicate that vitamin D has multidirectional biological effects and influences anti-cancer intracellular mechanisms and cancer risk, and that vitamin D dietary supplements have various prophylactic benefits. In the 20th century, it was reported that vitamin D may play various roles in the protection and regulation of normal cellular phenotypes and in cancer prevention and adjunctive therapy in various human neoplasms, including HNSCC, by regulating a number of intracellular mechanisms, including control of tumour cell expansion and differentiation, apoptosis, intercellular interactions, angio- and lymphogenesis, immune function, and tumour invasion. These regulatory properties mainly occur indirectly via epigenetic and transcriptional changes regulating the function of transcription factors, chromatin modifiers, non-coding RNA (ncRNAs), and microRNAs (miRs) through protein-protein interactions and signalling pathways. In this way, calcitriol enhances intercellular communication in cancer biology, restores the connection with the extracellular matrix, and promotes the epithelial phenotype; it thus counteracts the tumour-associated detachment from the extracellular matrix and inhibits the formation of metastases. Furthermore, the confirmation that the vitamin D receptor (VDR) is present in many human tissues confirmed the physiopathological significance of vitamin D in various human tumours. Recent studies indicate quantitative associations between exposure to vitamin D and the incidence of HNC, i.e., cancer risk assessment included circulating calcidiol plasma/serum concentrations, vitamin D intake, the presence of the VDR gene polymorphism, and genes involved in the vitamin D metabolism pathway. Moreover, the chemopreventive efficacy of vitamin D in precancerous lesions of the head and neck and their role as predictors of mortality, survival, and recurrence of head and neck cancer are also widely discussed. As such, it may be considered a promising potential anti-cancer agent for developing innovative methods of targeted therapy. The proposed review discusses in detail the mechanisms regulating the relationship between vitamin D and HNSCC. It also provides an overview of the current literature, including key opinion-forming systematic reviews as well as epidemiological, prospective, longitudinal, cross-sectional, and interventional studies based on in vitro and animal models of HNSCC, all of which are accessible via the PubMed/Medline/EMBASE/Cochrane Library databases. This article presents the data in line with increasing clinical credibility.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model of Hypovitaminosis D in General Adult Population: SCOPYD Study

The worldwide global increase in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) measurements has led some countries to restrict reimbursement for certain clinical situations only. Another approach could consist in providing physicians with screening tools in order to better target blood test prescription. The objective of the SCOPYD study was to identify the best combination of predictors of serum VitD concentration among adults aged 18–70 years. Potential risk factors for VitD deficiency were collected using a comprehensive self-administered questionnaire. A multivariable linear regression was used to build a predictive model of serum 25(OH)D concentration. Among 2488 participants, 1080 (43.4%) had VitD deficiency (<50 nmol/L) and 195 (7.8%) had severe deficiency (<25 nmol/L). The final model included sunlight exposure in the preceding week and during the last holidays, month of blood sampling, age, sex, body mass index, skin phototype, employment, smoking, sport practice, latitude, and VitD supplementation in preceding year. The area under the curve was 0.82 (95% CI (0.78; 0.85)) for severe deficiency. The model predicted severe deficiency with a sensitivity of 77.9% (95% CI (69.1; 85.7)) and a specificity of 68.3% (95% CI (64.8; 71.9)). We identified a set of predictors of severe VitD deficiency that are easy to collect in routine that may help to better target patients for serum 25(OH)D concentration determination.

Predicting deseasonalised serum 25 hydroxy vitamin D concentrations in the D-Health Trial: An analysis using boosted regression trees

BACKGROUND

The D-Health Trial aims to determine whether monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation can reduce the mortality rate and prevent cancer. We did not have adequate statistical power for subgroup analyses, so could not justify the high cost of collecting blood samples at baseline. To enable future exploratory analyses stratified by baseline vitamin D status, we developed models to predict baseline serum 25 hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration.

METHODS

We used data and serum 25(OH)D concentrations from participants who gave a blood sample during the trial for compliance monitoring and were randomised to placebo. Data were partitioned into training (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Deseasonalised serum 25(OH)D concentrations were dichotomised using cut-points of 50, 60 and 75 nmol/L. We fitted boosted regression tree models, based on 13 predictors, and evaluated model performance using the validation data.

RESULTS

The training and validation datasets had 1788 (10.5% <50 nmol/L, 23.1% <60 nmol, 48.8 <75 nmol/L) and 447 (11.9% <50 nmol/L, 25.7% <60 nmol/L, and 49.2% <75 nmol/L) samples, respectively. Ambient UV radiation and total intake of vitamin D were the strongest predictors of 'low' serum 25(OH)D concentration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.71, 0.70, and 0.66 for cut-points of <50, <60 and <75 nmol/L respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We exploited compliance monitoring data to develop models to predict serum 25(OH)D concentration for D-Health participants at baseline. This approach may prove useful in other trial settings where there is an obstacle to exhaustive data collection.