Predicting tumor response and prognosis to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients using PERCIST: a multicenter study in Japan

The prognostic value of pretreatment [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters in esophageal cancer: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to evaluate the prognostic implications of pretreatment [18F]FDG-PET metrics in esophageal cancer patients through a meta-analysis of the existing literature.

METHODS

We carefully searched electronic databases, including PubMed and Embase, from inception to April 1, 2024, to identify studies describing the prognostic value of pretreatment PET metrics for advanced esophageal cancer. Clinical endpoints examined were overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS)/disease-free survival (DFS), and progression-free survival (PFS). Hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS and OS were taken directly from the original reports.

RESULTS

Forty-seven publications, including 5504 patients, were included in our analysis. OS and PFS were analyzed in 31 and nine studies, respectively, and DFS/RFS was analyzed in 16 studies. The comprehensive pooled analysis revealed significant associations between metabolic parameters derived from positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and clinical outcomes. Expressly, the pooled HR indicated that patients with higher SUVmax were significantly associated with poor PFS (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.01-1.12, p = 0.011) and poor RFS/DFS (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.18, p = 0.019). Patients with higher SUVmean were significantly associated with poorer OS (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.14, p = 0.025). High MTV was significantly associated with inferior OS (HR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05, p = 0.049). High TLG was significantly associated with poorer RFS/DFS (HR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.11-3.68, p = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

This study unveiled pretreatment FDG-derived parameters as valuable prognostic indicators in assessing esophageal cancer outcomes. Specifically, SUVmax is associated with PFS and RFS/DFS. SUVmean and MTV were correlated with OS, and TLG was only associated with RFS/DFS.

KEY POINTS

Question Inconsistent findings on the prognostic value of pretreatment [18F]FDG PET parameters in esophageal cancer require comprehensive analysis to clarify their role in outcome prediction. Findings Higher pretreatment [18F]FDG-PET metrics (SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV, TLG) are associated with poor survival outcomes, emphasizing their potential value in enhancing prognostic assessments for esophageal cancer. Clinical relevance This study highlights the prognostic significance of pretreatment [18F]FDG-PET metrics in esophageal cancer, providing valuable insights for patient outcome prediction and potentially guiding personalized treatment strategies.

Maximum standardized uptake value change rate before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy can predict early recurrence in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer: a multi-institutional cohort study of 220 patients in Japan

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed by esophagectomy can improve the prognosis of locally advanced esophageal cancer (LAEC). However, LAEC reportedly recurred in 17-21% of patients within 6 months post surgery. Thus, current treatment strategies may be inadequate for LAECs with poor prognosis. Preoperative identification of patients with poor prognosis might aid in modification of treatment strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of the maximum standardized uptake value change rate (ΔSUV_max) in predicting treatment effects on the primary lesion, prognosis, and LAEC recurrence.

METHODS

This study involved 220 esophageal cancer patients who underwent esophagectomy after NAC at three facilities in Japan. The optimal cut-off point for ΔSUV_max in predicting tumor regression grade (TRG) was calculated and used to assess the correlation between ΔSUV_max and postoperative survival.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off point for ΔSUV_max was 0.5. The 5-year overall survival rate in patients with ΔSUV_max ≥ 0.5 was significantly higher than that in patients with ΔSUV_max < 0.5 (71.5% vs. 50.5%, P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified ΔSUV_max (hazards ratio, 0.496; P = 0.004) as an independent prognostic factor. Among 199 patients evaluated for recurrence, 24 (12.1%) showed recurrence within 6 months post surgery. Univariate analysis revealed ΔSUV_max as the only predictor for early recurrence (odds ratio, 0.222; P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

ΔSUV_max before and after NAC is clinically useful as it could help predict TRG, survival outcome, and early recurrence within 6 months post esophagectomy and is easily obtainable in general clinical practice. We believe that it may also help determine suitable treatment strategies for LAEC.