A nomogram for predicting pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasm and serous cystic neoplasm

Construction and verification of a nomogram model for the risk of death in sepsis patients

At present, there is insufficient evidence to evaluate the prognosis of patients with sepsis. This study anazed the clinical data of 822 sepsis patients in the ICU of a tertiary Grade A hospital to construct and validate a nomogram model for predicting the 28-day mortality risk in sepsis patients. The model was constructed using multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors affecting prognosis, and a mortality risk prediction model was built based on these independent risk factors. The performance of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Multivariate logistic regression identified five independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in sepsis patients: Age, SOFA score, CRP, Mechanical ventilation, and the use of Vasoactive drugs. The odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for these factors were 1.037 (1.024-1.050), 1.093 (1.044-1.145), 1.034 (1.026-1.042), 1.967 (1.176-3.328), and 2.515 (1.611-3.941), respectively, with all P-values < 0.05. Based on these five independent risk factors, a nomogram model was constructed, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in the training set and external validation set being 0.849 (95% CI 0.818-0.880) and 0.837 (95% CI 0.887-0.886), respectively. Both the DCA curve and calibration plot confirmed that the model has good clinical efficacy. The nomogram prediction model established in this study has excellent predictive ability, which can help clinicians identify high-risk patients early and provide guidance for clinical decision-making.

Nomogram based on burn characteristics and the National Early Warning Score to predict survival in severely burned patients

BACKGROUND

Extensive burns are associated with a high mortality rate. Early prediction and action can reduce mortality. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is considered the best early warning score for predicting mortality. However, there has been no assessment conducted on the clinical prognostic significance of NEWS in individuals suffering from severe burns. The objective of this research was to establish a nomogram based on burn characteristics and the NEWS to predict survival in severely burned patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on 335 patients diagnosed with extensive burns from 2005 to 2021 in the Department of Burn Surgery of Changhai Hospital, the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed using these prognostic factors and its internal validity was assessed through bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

The results of multivariate analysis showed that the independent factors affecting the prognosis of severe burn patients were age, full-thickness burn, creatinine, inhalation tracheotomy, and the NEWS, all of which were identified to create the nomogram. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion values of the nomogram demonstrated superior goodness-of-fit in predicting severe burns compared to NEWS, with lower scores (195.21 vs. 201.24; 221.91 vs. 224.12, respectively). The bootstrap-adjusted concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram yielded a higher value of 0.923(95 % CI 0.892-0.953), compared to NEWS which had a C-index of 0.699 (95 % CI 0.628-0.770). The calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes in the nomogram analysis. Furthermore, decision curve analysis indicated promising clinical utility for the proposed nomogram model. By applying an appropriate cutoff value derived from receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, it was observed that the high-risk group identified by the nomogram exhibited a significantly higher mortality rate than the low-risk group.

CONCLUSION

This study introduces an innovative nomogram that predicts the survival rate of individuals with severe burn injuries by combining clinical attributes and laboratory examinations, demonstrating superior efficacy compared to conventional NEWS systems.

A nomogram for predicting lymphovascular invasion in lung adenocarcinoma: a retrospective study

BACKGROUD

Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) was histological factor that was closely related to prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma (LAC).The primary aim was to investigate the value of a nomogram incorporating clinical and computed tomography (CT) factors to predict LVI in LAC, and validating the predictive efficacy of a clinical model for LVI in patients with lung adenocarcinoma with lesions ≤ 3 cm.

METHODS

A total of 450 patients with LAC were retrospectively enrolled. Clinical data and CT features were analyzed to identify independent predictors of LVI. A nomogram incorporating the independent predictors of LVI was built. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by assessing its discriminative ability and clinical utility.We took 321 patients with tumours ≤ 3 cm in diameter to continue constructing the clinical prediction model, which was labelled subgroup clinical model.

RESULTS

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, maximum tumor diameter, spiculation, and vacuole sign were independent predictors of LVI. The LVI prediction nomogram showed good discrimination in the training set [area under the curve (AUC), 0.800] and the test set (AUC, 0.790), the subgroup clinical model also owned the stable predictive efficacy for preoperative prediction of LVI in lung adenocarcinoma patients, and both training and test set AUC reached 0.740.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram developed in this study could predict the risk of LVI in LAC patients, facilitate individualized risk-stratification, and help inform treatment decision-makin, and the subgroup clinical model also had good predictive performance for lung cancer patients with lesion ≤ 3 cm in diameter.

DenseNet model incorporating hybrid attention mechanisms and clinical features for pancreatic cystic tumor classification

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to develop a deep learning model capable of discriminating between pancreatic plasma cystic neoplasms (SCN) and mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN) by leveraging patient-specific clinical features and imaging outcomes. The intent is to offer valuable diagnostic support to clinicians in their clinical decision-making processes.

METHODS

The construction of the deep learning model involved utilizing a dataset comprising abdominal magnetic resonance T2-weighted images obtained from patients diagnosed with pancreatic cystic tumors at Changhai Hospital. The dataset comprised 207 patients with SCN and 93 patients with MCN, encompassing a total of 1761 images. The foundational architecture employed was DenseNet-161, augmented with a hybrid attention mechanism module. This integration aimed to enhance the network's attentiveness toward channel and spatial features, thereby amplifying its performance. Additionally, clinical features were incorporated prior to the fully connected layer of the network to actively contribute to subsequent decision-making processes, thereby significantly augmenting the model's classification accuracy. The final patient classification outcomes were derived using a joint voting methodology, and the model underwent comprehensive evaluation.

RESULTS

Using the five-fold cross validation, the accuracy of the classification model in this paper was 92.44%, with an AUC value of 0.971, a precision rate of 0.956, a recall rate of 0.919, a specificity of 0.933, and an F1-score of 0.936.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that the DenseNet model, which incorporates hybrid attention mechanisms and clinical features, is effective for distinguishing between SCN and MCN, and has potential application for the diagnosis of pancreatic cystic tumors in clinical practice.

Radiomics advances in the evaluation of pancreatic cystic neoplasms

With the development of medical imaging, the detection rate of pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) has increased greatly. Serous cystic neoplasm, solid pseudopapillary neoplasm, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and mucinous cystic neoplasm are the main subtypes of PCN, and their treatment options vary greatly due to the different biological behaviours of the tumours. Different from conventional qualitative imaging evaluation, radiomics is a promising noninvasive approach for the diagnosis, classification, and risk stratification of diseases involving high-throughput extraction of medical image features. We present a review of radiomics in the diagnosis of serous cystic neoplasm and mucinous cystic neoplasm, risk classification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and prediction of solid pseudopapillary neoplasm invasiveness compared to conventional imaging diagnosis. Radiomics is a promising tool in the field of medical imaging, providing a noninvasive, high-performance model for preoperative diagnosis and risk stratification of PCNs and improving prospects regarding management of these diseases. Further studies are warranted to investigate MRI image radiomics in connection with PCNs to improve the diagnosis and treatment strategies in the management of PCN patients.

Clinical characteristics and overall survival prognostic nomogram for metaplastic breast cancer

Background

Metaplastic breast cancer (MBC) is a rare breast tumor and the prognostic factors for survival in patients still remain controversial. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with MBC.

Methods

We searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for data about patients including metaplastic breast cancer and infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC) from 2010 to 2018. The survival outcomes of patients between MBC and IDC were analyzed and compared with the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method. MBC patients were randomly allocated to the training set and validation I set by a ratio of eight to two. Meanwhile, the performance of this model was validated again by the validation II set, which consisted of MBC patients from the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University between 2010 and 2018. The independent prognostic factors were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram was constructed to predict individual survival outcomes for MBC patients. The discriminative power, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the nomogram were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

MBC had a significantly higher T stage (T2 and above accounting for 75.1% vs 39.9%), fewer infiltrated lymph nodes (N0 accounted for 76.2% vs 67.7%), a lower proportion of ER (22.2% vs 81.2%), PR (13.6% vs 71.4%), and HER-2(6.7% vs 17.7%) positive, radiotherapy(51.6% vs 58.0%) but more chemotherapy(67.5% vs 44.7%), and a higher rate of mastectomy(53.2% vs 36.8%), which was discovered when comparing the clinical baseline data between MBC and IDC. Age at diagnosis, T, N, and M stage, as well as surgery and radiation treatment, were all significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). In the validation I cohort, the nomogram's C-index (0.769 95% CI 0.710 -0.828) was indicated to be considerably higher than the standard AJCC model's (0.700 95% CI 0.644 -0.756). Nomogram's great predictive capability capacity further was supported by the comparatively high C-index of the validation II sets (0.728 95%CI 0.588-0.869).

Conclusions

Metaplastic breast cancer is more aggressive, with a worse clinical prognosis than IDC. This nomogram is recommended for patients with MBC, both American and Chinese, which can help clinicians make more accurate individualized survival analyses.