Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

Wildfire, Environmental Risk and Deliberative Planning in the Locarnese Region of Switzerland

A survey of residents in the Locarnese region of Canton Ticino, Switzerland was used to examine perceptions of exposure to environmental risk in the context of the deliberative Swiss planning system. There is a growing risk of wildfire in the region, and unless residents' risk perceptions are understood and effectively integrated into decision making, confidence in environmental planning processes could erode. The research analyses how peri-urban residents conceptualise risk, place and environment, and how they perceive their influence over local planning outcomes. Descriptive and inferential statistics reveal high appreciation of lifestyle and amenity values, and support for firefighting services. While respondents recognise the increasing exposure to wildfires and landslides, it was the current level of urban expansion that was seen to be heightening risk at the interface between forests and settlements. Although Swiss deliberative governance arrangements offer citizens opportunities to be involved in decision making through official channels, respondents who were younger, of local background or who were less educated were particularly dissatisfied with their influence over planning. We discuss the implications of these findings for the distinctive Swiss planning system in the context of other countries' ambitions to develop more effective, democratic environmental planning. In particular, the relative ease offered by popular referenda may be creating a disproportionate sense of citizen entitlement to be heard on local planning issues. Dialogues of risk reduction must continue to evolve between the population and government actors to encourage residents to engage more fully with relevant topics of risk for their region.

A Novel Approach for Forest Fragmentation Susceptibility Mapping and Assessment: A Case Study from the Indian Himalayan Region

An estimation of where forest fragmentation is likely to occur is critically important for improving the integrity of the forest landscape. We prepare a forest fragmentation susceptibility map for the first time by developing an integrated model and identify its causative factors in the forest landscape. Our proposed model is based upon the synergistic use of the earth observation data, forest fragmentation approach, patch forests, causative factors, and the weight-of-evidence (WOE) method in a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform. We evaluate the applicability of the proposed model in the Indian Himalayan region, a region of rich biodiversity and environmental significance in the Indian subcontinent. To obtain a forest fragmentation susceptibility map, we used patch forests as past evidence of completely degraded forests. Subsequently, we used these patch forests in the WOE method to assign the standardized weight value to each class of causative factors tested by the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method. Finally, we prepare a forest fragmentation susceptibility map and classify it into five levels: very low, low, medium, high, and very high and test its validity using 30% randomly selected patch forests. Our study reveals that around 40% of the study area is highly susceptible to forest fragmentation. This study identifies that forest fragmentation is more likely to occur if proximity to built-up areas, roads, agricultural lands, and streams is low, whereas it is less likely to occur in higher altitude zones (more than 2000 m a.s.l.). Additionally, forest fragmentation will likely occur in areas mainly facing south, east, southwest, and southeast directions and on very gentle and gentle slopes (less than 25 degrees). This study identifies Himalayan moist temperate and pine forests as being likely to be most affected by forest fragmentation in the future. The results suggest that the study area would experience more forest fragmentation in the future, meaning loss of forest landscape integrity and rich biodiversity in the Indian Himalayan region. Our integrated model achieved a prediction accuracy of 88.7%, indicating good accuracy of the model. This study will be helpful to minimize forest fragmentation and improve the integrity of the forest landscape by implementing forest restoration and reforestation schemes.

Acid rain: an unsuspected factor predisposing Panzhihua airport landslide, China

Understanding the effect of acid rain to landslides is crucial for a better landslide risk assessment. This work aims to reveal the unsuspected but key role of acid rain in Panzhihua airport landslide, China. Firstly, we propose a hypothesis that acid rain may aggravate the slaking behavior of mudstone at weak interlayer and make it more fragmented, eventually further reducing its shear strength and predisposing the Panzhihua airport landslide. Subsequently, mudstone samples are subjected to slaking durability test, respectively, using water with a pH of 7 and two dilute hydrochloric acid solution with pH of 5 and 3. Slaking durability index (I_dn) is adopted aiming to quantitatively evaluate the impact of acid rain on the slaking. Moreover, the mechanisms of acid rain affecting the slaking behavior of mudstone are revealed by (1) analyzing cation compositions changes in different pH slaking fluid and (2) observing micro-structure change of mudstone-chip before and after acid rain treatment. Finally, three works are conducted as evidences to prove that acid rain indeed plays a key role in the occurrence of Panzhihua airport landslide, including (1) analysis of the link between the slaking behavior of mudstone and its shear strength, (2) comparison of cations between spring water at the edge of the toe of landslide and acid rain, and (3) comparison of mineral contents of mudstone samples collected from different locations. These findings have implications for comprehensively analyzing the formation mechanism of landslide in acid rain area (such as Europe, North America, and China).

Trends in the National and Regional Transitional Dynamics of Land Cover and Use Changes in Romania

The crucial importance of land cover and use changes, components of the ‘global changes’, for the worldwide sustainable and resilient development results from their negative influence on ecosystem services, biodiversity, and human welfare. Ongoing debates concerning whether the global drivers are more important than the local ones or which are the most prominent driving forces and effects are still ongoing at the global level. In Europe, the patterns of land cover and use changes differ between the west and the east. Property restitution was an important driver of change in Eastern Europe and especially in Romania. This study aimed to look at the land cover and use changes in Romania by their transitional dynamic using Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) data in an attempt to identify long-term spatially and temporally consistent trends. Although generally inconsistent, the results indicate that deforestation and urbanization tend to prevail over other changes, and the development of agriculture slows its pace. Such findings are consequences of unplanned development associated with little environmental awareness. The presence of hotspots where land cover and use changes seem to be clustered can be seen as a feature of ex-socialist countries undergoing economic transition.

Investigation on Farmland Abandonment of Terraced Slopes Using Multitemporal Data Sources Comparison and Its Implication on Hydro-Geomorphological Processes

This paper presents a quantitative multi-temporal analysis performed in a GIS environment and based on different spatial information sources. The research is aimed at investigating the land use transformations that occurred in a small coastal terraced basin of Eastern Liguria from the early 1950s to 2011. The degree of abandonment of cultivated terraced slopes together with its influence on the distribution, abundance, and magnitude of rainfall-induced shallow landslides were accurately analysed. The analysis showed that a large portion of terraced area (77.4%) has been abandoned over approximately sixty years. This land use transformation has played a crucial role in influencing the hydro-geomorphological processes triggered by a very intense rainstorm that occurred in 2011. The outcomes of the analysis revealed that terraces abandoned for a short time showed the highest landslide susceptibility and that slope failures affecting cultivated zones were characterized by a lower magnitude than those which occurred on abandoned terraced slopes. Furthermore, this study highlights the usefulness of cadastral data in understanding the impact of rainfall-induced landslides due to both a high spatial and thematic accuracy. The obtained results represent a solid basis for the investigation of erosion and the shallow landslide susceptibility of terraced slopes by means of a simulation of land use change scenarios.

Recent Deforestation Pattern Changes (2000–2017) in the Central Carpathians: A Gray-Level Co-Occurrence Matrix and Fractal Analysis Approach

The paper explores the distribution of tree cover and deforested areas in the Central Carpathians in the central-east part of Romania, in the context of the anthropogenic forest disturbances and sustainable forest management. The study aims to evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in deforested areas due to human pressure in the Carpathian Mountains, a sensitive biodiverse European ecosystem. We used an analysis of satellite imagery with Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (Landsat-7 ETM+) from the University of Maryland (UMD) Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset. The workflow started with the determination of tree cover and deforested areas from 2000–2017, with an overall accuracy of 97%. For the monitoring of forest dynamics, a Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix analysis (Entropy) and fractal analysis (Fractal Fragmentation-Compaction Index and Tug-of-War Lacunarity) were utilized. The increased fragmentation of tree cover (annually 2000–2017) was demonstrated by the highest values of the Fractal Fragmentation-Compaction Index, a measure of the degree of disorder (Entropy) and heterogeneity (Lacunarity). The principal outcome of the research reveals the dynamics of disturbance of tree cover and deforested areas expressed by the textural and fractal analysis. The results obtained can be used in the future development and adaptation of forestry management policies to ensure sustainable management of exploited forest areas.

Evaluating the Contribution of Trees outside Forests and Small Open Areas to the Italian Landscape Diversification during the Last Decades

Land use by humans strongly alters the landscape mosaic, either by reducing or increasing its heterogeneity. One of the most recent and widespread land use changes in Europe has been the spontaneous reforestation of marginal agricultural lands. These primarily affected small landscape patches, such as trees outside forests (TOF) and small open areas (SOA), often represent the most diversifying features of landscape’ structures. Nevertheless, only small-scale studies can be found in the literature and thus it remains a relatively unexplored issue. Integrating inventory and cartographic approaches, this work assesses changes in abundance, coverage, and average size of small patches in Italy between 1990 and 2013. Main results showed an overall increase in number and coverage of small patches during the reference period. The average patch size remains unaltered for TOF but decreases significantly for SOA, due to trees encroachment and canopy cover increasing in forests. Our findings confirm the important changes in Mediterranean land mosaics and contribute to a better understanding of current conditions and recent trends regarding TOF and SOA. The integrated approach has proven to be helpful for the large-scale assessment of small patches dynamics, representing a viable monitoring tool to encourage the inclusion of small patches in landscape policy and planning.

Simulated Impacts of Soy and Infrastructure Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon: A Maximum Entropy Approach

Historically, the expansion of soy plantations has been a major driver of land-use/cover change (LUCC) in Brazil. While a series of recent public actions and supply-chain commitments reportedly curbed the replacement of forests by soy, the expansion of the agricultural commodity still poses a considerable threat to the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Identification of areas under high risk of soy expansion is thus paramount to assist conservation efforts in the region. We mapped the areas suitable for undergoing transition to soy plantations in the Legal Amazon with a machine-learning approach adopted from the ecological modeling literature. Simulated soy expansion for the year 2014 exhibited favorable validation scores compared to other LUCC models. We then used our model to simulate how potential future infrastructure improvements would affect the 2014 probabilities of soy occurrence in the region. In addition to the 2.3 Mha of planted soy in the Legal Amazon in 2014, our model identified another 14.7 Mha with high probability of soy conversion in the region given the infrastructure conditions at that time. Out of those, pastures and forests represented 9.8 and 0.4 Mha, respectively. Under the new infrastructure scenarios simulated, the Legal Amazonian area under high risk of soy conversion increased by up to 2.1 Mha (14.6%). These changes led to up to 11.4 and 51.4% increases in the high-risk of conversion areas of pastures and forests, respectively. If conversion occurs in the identified high-risk areas, at least 4.8 Pg of CO2 could be released into the atmosphere, a value that represents 10 times the total CO2 emissions of Brazil in 2014. Our results highlight the importance of targeting conservation policies and enforcement actions, including the Soy Moratorium, to mitigate future forest cover loss associated with infrastructure improvements in the region.

Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future

Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility.