Is 'Resilience' Maladaptive? Towards an Accurate Lexicon for Climate Change Adaptation

Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems

Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

Show-Me Resilience: Assessing and Reconciling Rural Leaders' Perceptions of Climate Resilience in Missouri

Rural areas of the United States play a vital role in coping with, adapting to and mitigating climate change, yet they often lag urban areas in climate planning and action. Rural leaders-e.g., policymakers, state/federal agency professionals, non-profit organization leadership, and scholars - are pivotal for driving the programs and policies that support resilient practices, but our understanding of their perspectives on climate resilience writ large is limited. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 23 rural leaders in Missouri to elucidate their conceptualizations of climate resilience and identify catalysts and constraints for climate adaptation planning and action across rural landscapes. We investigated participants' perceptions of the major vulnerabilities of rural communities and landscapes, threats to rural areas, and potential steps for making rural Missouri more resilient in the face of climate change. We found that most rural leaders conceptualized climate resilience as responding to hazardous events rather than anticipating or planning for hazardous trends. The predominant threats identified were flooding and drought, which aligns with climate projections for the Midwest. Participants proposed a wide variety of specific steps to enhance resilience but had the highest agreement about the utility of expanding existing programs. The most comprehensive suite of solutions was offered by participants who conceptualized resilience as involving social, ecological, and economic systems, underscoring the importance of broad thinking for developing more holistic solutions to climate-associated threats and the potential impact of greater collaboration across domains. We highlight and discuss a Missouri-based levee setback project that was identified by participants as a showcase of collaborative resilience-building.

Climate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity

Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous net primary productivity with an ensemble of climate models, we demonstrate that assumptions concerning the magnitude of climate disequilibrium are a dominant source of uncertainty: models assuming maximum disequilibrium project widespread decreases in productivity in the western US by 2100, while models assuming minimal disequilibrium project productivity increases. Uncertainty related to climate disequilibrium is larger than uncertainties from variation among climate models or emissions pathways. A better understanding of processes that regulate climate disequilibria is essential for improving long-term projections of ecological responses and informing management to maintain ecosystem functioning at historical baselines.

Resisting-Accepting-Directing: Ecosystem Management Guided by an Ecological Resilience Assessment

As anthropogenic influences push ecosystems past tipping points and into new regimes, complex management decisions are complicated by rapid ecosystem changes that may be difficult to reverse. For managers who grapple with how to manage ecosystems under novel conditions and heightened uncertainty, advancing our understanding of regime shifts is paramount. As part of an ecological resilience assessment, researchers and managers have collaborated to identify alternate regimes and build an understanding of the thresholds and factors that govern regime shifts in the Upper Mississippi River System. To describe the management implications of our assessment, we integrate our findings with the recently developed resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework that explicitly acknowledges ecosystem regime change and outlines management approaches of resisting change, accepting change, or directing change. More specifically, we developed guidance for using knowledge of desirability of current conditions, distance to thresholds, and general resilience (that is, an ecosystem's capacity to cope with uncertain disturbances) to navigate the RAD framework. We applied this guidance to outline strategies that resist, accept, or direct change in the context of management of aquatic vegetation, floodplain vegetation, and fish communities across nearly 2000 river kilometers. We provide a case study for how knowledge of ecological dynamics can aid in assessing which management approach(es) are likely to be most ecologically feasible in a changing world. Continued learning from management decisions will be critical to advance our understanding of how ecosystems respond and inform the management of ecosystems for desirable and resilient outcomes.

Climate adaptation of biodiversity conservation in managed forest landscapes

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems.

Using the Conservation Standards Framework to Address the Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Climate change has challenged biodiversity conservation practitioners and planners. In this paper, we provide scalable guidance on integrating climate change into conservation planning and adaptive management that results in the most appropriate conservation strategies. This integrated “Climate-Smart Conservation Practice” focuses on analyzing the potential impact of climate change on species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services, combined with “conventional” (non-climate) threats, and incorporating this knowledge into projects. The guidance is based on the already widely-used “Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation”, an application of systems thinking and adaptive management, which has been successfully applied to thousands of conservation projects. Our framework emphasizes a methodical analysis of climate change impacts for projects to support more productive goals and strategy development. We provide two case studies showing the applicability and flexibility of this framework. An initial key element is developing “situation models” that document both current and future threats affecting biodiversity while showing the interactions between climate and conventional threats. Guidance is also provided on how to design integrated, climate-smart goals and strategies, and detailed theories of change for selected strategies. The information and suggestions presented are intended to break down the steps to make the process more approachable, provide guidance to teams using climate change information within a systematic conservation planning process, and demonstrate how climate scientists can provide appropriate information to conservation planners.

RAD Adaptive Management for Transforming Ecosystems

Intensifying global change is propelling many ecosystems toward irreversible transformations. Natural resource managers face the complex task of conserving these important resources under unprecedented conditions and expanding uncertainty. As once familiar ecological conditions disappear, traditional management approaches that assume the future will reflect the past are becoming increasingly untenable. In the present article, we place adaptive management within the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework to assist informed risk taking for transforming ecosystems. This approach empowers managers to use familiar techniques associated with adaptive management in the unfamiliar territory of ecosystem transformation. By providing a common lexicon, it gives decision makers agency to revisit objectives, consider new system trajectories, and discuss RAD strategies in relation to current system state and direction of change. Operationalizing RAD adaptive management requires periodic review and update of management actions and objectives; monitoring, experimentation, and pilot studies; and bet hedging to better identify and tolerate associated risks.

Navigating Ecological Transformation: Resist–Accept–Direct as a Path to a New Resource Management Paradigm

Natural resource managers worldwide face a growing challenge: Intensifying global change increasingly propels ecosystems toward irreversible ecological transformations. This nonstationarity challenges traditional conservation goals and human well-being. It also confounds a longstanding management paradigm that assumes a future that reflects the past. As once-familiar ecological conditions disappear, managers need a new approach to guide decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework, designed for and by managers, identifies the options managers have for responding and helps them make informed, purposeful, and strategic choices in this context. Moving beyond the diversity and complexity of myriad emerging frameworks, RAD is a simple, flexible, decision-making tool that encompasses the entire decision space for stewarding transforming ecosystems. Through shared application of a common approach, the RAD framework can help the wider natural resource management and research community build the robust, shared habits of mind necessary for a new, twenty-first-century natural resource management paradigm.

An Ecological Perspective on Living with Fire in Ponderosa Pine Forests of Oregon and Washington: Resistance, Gone but not Forgotten

Wildland fires (WLF) have become more frequent, larger, and severe with greater impacts to society and ecosystems and dramatic increases in firefighting costs. Forests throughout the range of ponderosa pine in Oregon and Washington are jeopardized by the interaction of anomalously dense forest structure, a warming and drying climate, and an expanding human population. These forests evolved with frequent interacting disturbances including low-severity surface fires, droughts, and biological disturbance agents (BDAs). Chronic low-severity disturbances were, and still are, critical to maintaining disturbance resistance, the property of an ecosystem to withstand disturbance while maintaining its structure and ecological function. Restoration of that historical resistance offers multiple social and ecological benefits. Moving forward, we need a shared understanding of the ecology of ponderosa pine forests to appreciate how restoring resistance can reduce the impacts of disturbances. Given contemporary forest conditions, a warming climate, and growing human populations, we predict continued elevation of tree mortality from drought, BDAs, and the large high-severity WLFs that threaten lives and property as well as ecosystem functions and services. We recommend more comprehensive planning to promote greater use of prescribed fire and management of reported fires for ecological benefits, plus increased responsibility and preparedness of local agencies, communities and individual homeowners for WLF and smoke events. Ultimately, by more effectively preparing for fire in the wildland urban interface, and by increasing the resistance of ponderosa pine forests, we can greatly enhance our ability to live with fire and other disturbances.

The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case

Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosystems. Here, we measured for the rate of novelty (RoN) in abiotic conditions and community structure for three trophic levels, i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish, in a large marine system - the Baltic Sea. We measured RoN as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatial and temporal baseline, and contrasted this with the rate of change as a measure of within-basin change over time. We found that over the past 35 years abiotic and biotic RoN showed complex dynamics varying in time and space, depending on the baseline conditions. RoN in abiotic conditions was smaller in the open Central Baltic Sea than in the Kattegat and the more enclosed Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga, and Gulf of Finland in the north. We found a similar spatial pattern for biotic assemblages, which resulted from changes in composition and stock size. We identified sea-surface temperature and salinity as key drivers of RoN in biotic communities. Hence, future environmental changes that are expected to affect the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, may favor the rise of biotic novelty. Our results highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of novelty development in marine ecosystems, including interactions between species and trophic levels, ecosystem functioning under novel abiotic conditions, and considering novelty in future management interventions.

Can Forest Managers Plan for Resilient Landscapes? Lessons from the United States National Forest Plan Revision Process

The United States Forest Service, a federal agency entrusted with managing 78 M hectares of national forestlands under a broad multiple-use mandate, has seen recent shifts in policy direction emphasizing ecological restoration, consideration of climate change impacts, and a focus on managing for resilient landscapes. The process of revising the comprehensive plans guiding national forest management presents opportunities to reorient objectives, activities, and commitments toward these goals. Here we analyze case studies of three national forests that have completed the forest plan revision process since 2014: the Francis Marion National Forest in coastal South Carolina, the Kaibab National Forest in northern Arizona, and the Rio Grande National Forest in southern Colorado. We analyze plan revision participants' perspectives on the opportunities and barriers to reorienting national forest management toward resilient landscapes and the broader political, social, and institutional factors that influence these dynamics. Key opportunities included better promoting resilient landscape objectives by revising fire management guidelines, incorporating scientific data and modeling from multiple agency and non-agency partners, and building opportunities for adaptive management via long-term trust networks. Major barriers included inconsistent higher-level support for resilience objectives, an emphasis on meeting narrow quantitative performance targets, and under-investments in monitoring.

R-R-T (resistance-resilience-transformation) typology reveals differential conservation approaches across ecosystems and time

Conservation practices during the first decade of the millennium predominantly focused on resisting changes and maintaining historical or current conditions, but ever-increasing impacts from climate change have highlighted the need for transformative action. However, little empirical evidence exists on what kinds of conservation actions aimed specifically at climate change adaptation are being implemented in practice, let alone how transformative these actions are. In response, we propose and trial a novel typology-the R-R-T scale, which improves on existing concepts of Resistance, Resilience, and Transformation-that enables the practical application of contested terms and the empirical assessment of whether and to what extent a shift toward transformative action is occurring. When applying the R-R-T scale to a case study of 104 adaptation projects funded since 2011, we find a trend towards transformation that varies across ecosystems. Our results reveal that perceptions about the acceptance of novel interventions in principle are beginning to be expressed in practice.

A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change

During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.

Navigating Climate Adaptation on Public Lands: How Views on Ecosystem Change and Scale Interact with Management Approaches

Managers are increasingly being asked to integrate climate change adaptation into public land management. The literature discusses a range of adaptation approaches, including managing for resistance, resilience, and transformation; but many strategies have not yet been widely tested. This study employed in-depth interviews and scenario-based focus groups in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Colorado to learn how public land managers envision future ecosystem change, and how they plan to utilize different management approaches in the context of climate adaptation. While many managers evoked the past in thinking about projected climate impacts and potential responses, most managers in this study acknowledged and even embraced (if reluctantly) that many ecosystems will experience regime shifts in the face of climate change. However, accepting that future ecosystems will be different from past ecosystems led managers in different directions regarding how to respond and the appropriate role of management intervention. Some felt management actions should assist and even guide ecosystems toward future conditions. Others were less confident in projections and argued against transformation. Finally, some suggested that resilience could provide a middle path, allowing managers to help ecosystems adapt to change without predicting future ecosystem states. Scalar challenges and institutional constraints also influenced how managers thought about adaptation. Lack of institutional capacity was believed to constrain adaptation at larger scales. Resistance, in particular, was considered impractical at almost any scale due to institutional constraints. Managers negotiated scalar challenges and institutional constraints by nesting different approaches both spatially and temporally.

Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America

Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Forest resilience under global environmental change: Do we have the information we need? A systematic review

The capacity of forests to recover after disturbance, i.e., their resilience, determines their ability to persist and function over time. Many variables, natural and managerial, affect forest resilience. Thus, understanding their effects is critical for the development of sound forest conservation and management strategies, especially in the context of ongoing global environmental changes. We conducted a representative review, meta-analysis, of the forest literature in this topic (search terms “forest AND resilience”). We aimed to identify natural conditions that promote or jeopardize resilience, assess the efficacy of post-disturbance management practices on forest recovery, and evaluate forest resilience under current environmental changes.

We surveyed more than 2,500 articles and selected the 156 studies (724 observations) that compared and quantified forest recovery after disturbance under different contexts. Context of recovery included: resource gradients (moisture and fertility), post-disturbance biomass reduction treatments, species richness gradients, incidence of a second disturbance, and disturbance severity. Metrics of recovery varied from individual tree growth and reproduction, to population abundance, to species richness and cover. Analyses show management practices only favored recovery through increased reproduction (seed production) and abundance of recruitment stages. Higher moisture conditions favored recovery, particularly in dry temperate regions; and in boreal forests, this positive effect increased with regional humidity. Biomass reduction treatments were only effective in increasing resilience after a drought. Early recruiting plant stages benefited from increased severity, while disturbance severity was associated with lower recovery of remaining adult trees. This quantitative review provides insight into the natural conditions and management practices under which forest resilience is enhanced and highlights conditions that could jeopardize future resilience. We also identified important knowledge gaps, such as the role of diversity in determining forest resilience and the lack of data in many regions.

Exploring Tangible and Intangible Heritage and its Resilience as a Basis to Understand the Cultural Landscapes of Saxon Communities in Southern Transylvania (Romania)

Landscape researchers tend to reduce the diversity of tangible heritage to physical aspects of cultural landscapes, from the wealth of intangible heritage they focus on land-use practices which have a direct and visible impact on the landscape. We suggest a comprehensive assessment of both tangible and intangible heritage, in order to more accurately assess the interconnection of local identity and the shaping of cultural landscapes. As an example, we looked at Saxon culture and cultural landscapes in southern Transylvania (Romania), where we assessed features of tangible and intangible cultural heritage, identified their resilience and the driving forces of their change. Our analysis, based on 74 interviews with residents in ten villages in southern Transylvania, showed a high resilience of tangible heritage and a low resilience of intangible heritage. A major factor responsible for changes in the Saxon heritage was a decline in the population at the end of the Cold War, due to migration, driven by political and economic factors. We conclude by discussing the specific merits of such an analysis for integrated landscape management.

Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System

Birds in U.S. national parks find strong protection from many longstanding and pervasive threats, but remain highly exposed to effects of ongoing climate change. To understand how climate change is likely to alter bird communities in parks, we used species distribution models relating North American Breeding Bird Survey (summer) and Audubon Christmas Bird Count (winter) observations to climate data from the early 2000s and projected to 2041–2070 (hereafter, mid-century) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. We analyzed climate suitability projections over time for 513 species across 274 national parks, classifying them as improving, worsening, stable, potential colonization, and potential extirpation. U.S. national parks are projected to become increasingly important for birds in the coming decades as potential colonizations exceed extirpations in 62–100% of parks, with an average ratio of potential colonizations to extirpations of 4.1 in winter and 1.4 in summer under RCP8.5. Average species turnover is 23% in both summer and winter under RCP8.5. Species turnover (Bray-Curtis) and potential colonization and extirpation rates are positively correlated with latitude in the contiguous 48 states. Parks in the Midwest and Northeast are expected to see particularly high rates of change. All patterns are more extreme under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6. Based on the ratio of potential colonization and extirpation, parks were classified into overall trend groups associated with specific climate-informed conservation strategies. Substantial change to bird and ecological communities is anticipated in coming decades, and current thinking suggests managing towards a forward-looking concept of ecological integrity that accepts change and novel ecological conditions, rather than focusing management goals exclusively on maintaining or restoring a static set of historical conditions.

Fire catalyzed rapid ecological change in lowland coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest over the past 14,000 years

Disturbance can catalyze rapid ecological change by causing widespread mortality and initiating successional pathways, and during times of climate change, disturbance may contribute to ecosystem state changes by initiating a new successional pathway. In the Pacific Northwest of North America (PNW), disturbance by wildfires strongly shapes the composition and structure of lowland forests, but understanding the role of fire over periods of climate change is challenging, because fire-return intervals are long (e.g., millennia) and the coniferous trees dominating these forests can live for many centuries. We developed stand-scale paleorecords of vegetation and fire that span nearly the past 14,000 yr to study how fire was associated with state changes and rapid dynamics in forest vegetation at the stand scale (1-3 ha). We studied forest history with sediment cores from small hollow sites in the Marckworth State Forest, located ~1 km apart in the Tsuga heterophylla Zone in the Puget Lowland ecoregion of western Washington, USA. The median rate of change in pollen/spore assemblages was similar between sites (0.12 and 0.14% per year), but at both sites, rates of change increased significantly following fire events (ranging up to 1% per year, with a median of 0.28 and 0.38%, P < 0.003). During times of low climate velocity, forest composition was resilient to fires, which initiated successional pathways leading back to the dominant vegetation type. In contrast, during times of high climate variability and velocity (e.g., the early Holocene) forests were not resilient to fires, which triggered large-scale state changes. These records provide clear evidence that disturbance, in the form of an individual fire event, can be an important catalyst for rapid state changes, accelerating vegetation shifts in response to large-scale climate change.

A call to insect scientists: challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change

As climate change moves insect systems into uncharted territory, more knowledge about insect dynamics and the factors that drive them could enable us to better manage and conserve insect communities. Climate change may also require us to revisit insect management goals and strategies and lead to a new kind of scientific engagement in management decision-making. Here we make five key points about the role of insect science in aiding and crafting management decisions, and we illustrate those points with the monarch butterfly and the Karner blue butterfly, two species undergoing considerable change and facing new management dilemmas. Insect biology has a strong history of engagement in applied problems, and as the impacts of climate change increase, a reimagined ethic of entomology in service of broader society may emerge. We hope to motivate insect biologists to contribute time and effort toward solving the challenges of climate change.