Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

How to simulate future scenarios of urban stormwater management? A novel framework coupling climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure development

Climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) planning policies lead to uncertainties in future urban sustainability. Coupling multiple influencing factors such as climate change, urbanization, and GSI development, this study proposes a novel framework for simulating future scenarios of urban stormwater. Subsequently, the changes in annual surface runoff and runoff pollutants in Shanghai's new and old urban areas were compared and analyzed based on 35 typical future and seven baseline scenarios. The following results were obtained: 1) The runoff control rate of the new urban area was significantly higher than that of the old urban area before GSI construction. After GSI construction, both areas could control stormwater runoff and pollutants, while the decline in efficiency in GSI facilities enormously impacted the old area. 2) Surface runoff in the new urban area was mainly affected by urbanization, while climate change was a major factor in the old urban area; runoff pollutants in new and old urban areas were mainly affected by urbanization, and the change in pollutants in new areas was more pronounced. 3) GSI facilities were unlikely to guarantee the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in scenarios where the efficiency of GSI facilities decreases. In old urban areas, the more extreme climate change and urbanization were, the more significant the effect of improving stormwater management facilities. Our findings showed that future studies on stormwater management should specifically consider the different characteristics of new and old urban regions, pay attention to the maintenance and management of GSI facilities, and build adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, urbanization, and GSI facility destruction.

Flood occurrence analysis in small urban catchments in the context of regional variability

An original method for analyzing the influence of the meteorological, as well as physical-geographical conditions on the flooding of stormwater in small urban catchment areas is proposed. A logistical regression model is employed for the identification of the flooding events. The elaborated model enables to simulate the stormwater flooding in a single rainfall event, on the basis of the rainfall depth, duration, imperviousness of the catchment and its spatial distribution within the analyzed area, as well as the density of the stormwater network. The rainfall events are predicted considering the regional convective rainfall model for 32 rain gauges located in Poland, based on 44 years of rainfall data. In the study, empirical models are obtained to calculate the rainfall duration conditioning the flooding of stormwater in a small urban catchment area depending on the characteristics of the examined urban basins. The empirical models enabling to control the urbanization process of catchment areas, accounting for the local rainfall and meteorological characteristics are provided. The paper proposes a methodology for the identification of the areas especially sensitive to stormwater flooding in small urban catchment areas depending to the country scale. By employing the presented methodology, the regions with most sensitive urban catchments are identified. On this basis, a ranking of towns and cities is determined from the most sensitive to flooding in small urban catchment areas to the regions where the risk of flooding is lower. Using the method developed in the paper, maximum impervious catchment area are determined for the selected regions of the country, the exceedance of which determines the occurrence of stormwater flooding.

Urban stormwater runoff pollutant loadings: GIS land use classification vs. sample-based predictions

Cities are growing worldwide with an increase in stormwater quantity and decrease in quality, negatively impacting receiving water bodies. The characterization of stormwater is difficult given its high variability and the typically numerous outfalls to be monitored. However, loadings can be estimated via models and validated using actual outfall monitoring. This study determined stormwater pollutant loadings predicted using eight land-use classifications (i.e., a 'desktop' study) and via an outfall sampling regime (i.e., a 'monitoring' study) for seven stormwater catchment areas in Saskatoon, SK, Canada, where stormwater typically releases directly into the South Saskatchewan River. Pollutants considered were total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Catchment areas were dominated by single-family residential (39%) and green areas (17%). The largest catchment area, Preston Crossing, was the major source of the predicted annual loadings, such as TSS at 550,000 kg and COD at 265,000 kg. For comparison, the sampled-based estimated loadings for TSS and COD were 362,700 kg and 652,700 kg, respectively. Differences between the average predicted and actual estimations ranged from 29 to 156% for the eight pollutants considered, with averages for the summed pollutants in each catchment area ranging from 48 to 130%. Overall, the assessment and monitoring of stormwater outfalls are needed for the determination of impacts of loadings on the environment and for the subsequent development and implementation of treatment technologies.

Gazing into the Crystal Ball: A Review of Futures Analysis to Promote Environmental Justice in the UK Water Industry

Water is a vital and multifunctional resource for our society, economy and ecosystems; thus, how water is managed now and into the future has wide-reaching consequences. Sustainable water management and environmental justice therefore become key topics; a discussion of these terms is explored in the context of the UK water industry, which provides the focus for this study. This systematic review explores how considerations of the future have been applied in water research. The literature is reviewed with respect to (1) defining the end goal, (2) the use of futures analysis and (3) possible evaluation methods, including a discussion on the boundaries applied to each of the studies. A growing body of research associated with decision-making applying future scenarios was identified. However, the methods of application varied substantially, with holistic analyses largely lacking. The formulation of methods appears to be specific to the goal that is sought as well as the cultural influence of the region in which the analysis was developed and deployed. This paper presents a case for the visualisation of catchment characteristics and interdependencies to enable transparency in decision-making. This should reflect not only the current system but also a range of potential futures to enable appraisal of impacts.

Next generation swale design for stormwater runoff treatment: A comprehensive approach

Swales are the oldest and most common stormwater control measure for conveying and treating roadway runoff worldwide. Swales are also gaining popularity as part of stormwater treatment trains and as crucial elements in green infrastructure to build more resilient cities. To achieve higher pollutant reductions, swale alternatives with engineered media (bioswales) and wetland conditions (wet swales) are being tested. However, the available swale design guidance is primarily focused on hydraulic conveyance, overlooking their function as an important water quality treatment tool. The objective of this article is to provide science-based swale design guidance for treating targeted pollutants in stormwater runoff. This guidance is underpinned by a literature review. The results of this review suggest that well-maintained grass swales with check dams or infiltration swales are the best options for runoff volume reduction and removal of sediment and heavy metals. For nitrogen removal, wet swales are the most effective swale alternative. Bioswales are best for phosphorus and bacteria removal; both wet swales and bioswales can also treat heavy metals. Selection of a swale type depends on the site constraints, local climate, and available funding for design, construction, and operation. Appropriate siting, pre-design site investigations, and consideration of future maintenance during design are critical to successful long-term swale performance. Swale design recommendations based on a synthesis of the available research are provided, but actual design standards should be developed using local empirical data. Future research is necessary to identify optimal design parameters for all swale types, especially for wet swales.

Cost-benefit analysis of low-impact development at hectare scale for urban stormwater source control in response to anticipated climatic change

Investigation of the cost-effectiveness of low-impact development (LID) practices at the hectare scale in response to impacts of possible climate change was conducted using representative concentration pathways (RCPs). An LID project in Guangzhou has been selected to illustrate changes in the hydrologic performance for alternative source control strategies for a variety of future climate models and scenarios. Frequent storms of shorter duration in RCP 8.5 cause more dramatic fluctuation of hydrologic performance. Hydrologic performance of LID practices on reducing runoff volume and peak flow in test catchment are different in climate scenarios. Based on the constraints of life cycle costs and environmental impacts of LID alternatives, comprehensive strategies were found effective in managing surface runoff at the source to adapt to the influence of climate change. The methodology described herein could be useful in considering LID practices for critical source management with limited budgets and considering environmental impacts under long-term climate change.

Climate Change Policy Implications of Sustainable Development Pathways in Korea at Sub-National Scale

Climate action is goal 13 of UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Future impacts of climate change depend on climatic changes, the level of climate change policy, both mitigation and adaptation, and socio-economic status and development pathways. To investigate the climate change policy impact of socio-economic development pathways, we develop three pathways. Climate change affects socio-economic development in many ways. We interpret global storylines into South Korean contexts: Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1), SSP2, and SSP3 for population, economy, and land use. SSP elements and proxies were identified and elaborated through stakeholder participatory workshops, demand survey on potential users, past trends, and recent national projections of major proxies. Twenty-nine proxies were quantified using sector-specific models and downscaled where possible. Socio-economic and climate scenarios matrixes enable one to quantify the contribution of climate, population, economic development, and land-use change in future climate change impacts. Economic damage between climate scenarios is different in SSPs, and it highlights that SSPs are one of the key components for future climate change impacts. Achieving SDGs generates additional incentives for local and national governments as it can reduce mitigation and adaptation policy burden.

Assessing performance of porous pavements and bioretention cells for stormwater management in response to probable climatic changes

The effectiveness of porous pavement (PP) and bio-retention cells (BCs) under the influence of potential climate change was investigated based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs). A case study of a test catchment in Guangzhou illustrated changes of peak runoff under various climate scenarios. There were distinct increases in runoff volume and peak discharge in response to RCP8.5 but only marginal increases in response to RCP2.6 (compared with present conditions). The performance of PP and BCs in terms of percentage reduction of runoff volume and peak discharge was examined for 1-, 10-, and 100-year return period and 1- and 6-h-duration storms under various climate scenarios. The effectiveness of PP and BCs varied non-linearly with the extent of PP and BCs adopted. In general, the fluctuation of hydrological performance of PP is greater than that of BCs in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (e.g., peak flow reductions range from -60% to 69% and from -22% to 9%, for 5% area of PP and BCs, respectively). And PP is more cost-effective for frequent storms using life cycle costing analysis. We find that PP and BCs could significantly reduce runoff volume and peak discharge in response to rainfall events with short return period, but not for heavy storms with longer return period.

Assessing Hydrological Effects of Bioretention Cells for Urban Stormwater Runoff in Response to Climatic Changes

An investigation into the effectiveness of bioretention cells (BCs) under potential climatic changes was conducted using representative concentration pathways. A case study of Guangzhou showed changes in peak runoff in climate change scenarios, with obvious growth in RCP8.5 and slight growth in RCP2.6. The performance of BCs on multiple parameters, including reduction of runoff volume, peak runoff, and first flush, were examined in different design storms using a hydrology model (SWMM). The effectiveness of BCs varied non-linearly with scale. Their performance fell by varying amounts in the various scenarios. BCs could provide sufficient effects in response to short-return-period and short-duration storms, but the performance of BCs decreased with heavy storms, especially considering climate change. Hence, BCs cannot replace grey infrastructure but should be integrated with them. The method developed in this study could be useful in the planning and design of low impact development in view of future climate changes.

The influence of climate on the effectiveness of low impact development: A systematic review

Low impact development (LID) has been increasingly practiced since its emergence in the 1990s. Although the hydrological benefits of LIDs have been extensively documented, the climate impact on LID performance remains unclear with increasing variations in spatial and temporal climate patterns. This systematic review contributes to providing a structured summary of research on how LID systems are sensitive to climate variability by empirical and hypothetical research approaches. The selected 46 peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2003 and 2017 were analyzed by key variables, including climatic factors, LID types, and hydrologic measures used to quantify LID performance. A conceptual framework formulated in this study synthesizes the relationship between climate and LID effectiveness. The results of weighted meta-analysis reveal a greater sensitivity of runoff volume to changing storm frequency than peak discharge rates, while the capacity of LID systems to reduce both volume and peak discharge rates diminishes with increasing storm intensity. Future explorations of the sensitivity of LIDs to climate fluctuations will help strategize LID installation for targeted storm patterns and flood mitigation goals. To enhance existing methods and make a balance between empirical and hypothetical knowledge, this study suggests future directions of research and encourages development of effective stormwater management policy.

Assessing the Runoff Reduction Potential of Highway Swales and WinSLAMM as a Predictive Tool

Across the United States, the impacts of stormwater runoff are being managed through the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) in an effort to restore and/or maintain the quality of surface waters. State transportation authorities fall within this regulatory framework, being tasked with managing runoff leaving their impervious surfaces. Opportunely, the highway environment also has substantial amounts of green space that may be leveraged for this purpose. However, there are questions as to how much runoff reduction is provided by these spaces, a question that may have a dramatic impact on stormwater management strategies across the country. A highway median swale, located on Asheville Highway, Knoxville, Tennessee, was monitored for hydrology over an 11-month period. The total catchment was 0.64 ha, with 0.26 ha of roadway draining to 0.38 ha of a vegetated median. The results of this study indicated that 87.2% of runoff volume was sequestered by the swale. The Source Loading and Management Model for Windows (WinSLAMM) was used to model the swale runoff reduction performance to determine how well this model may perform in such an application. To calibrate the model, adjustments were made to measured on-site infiltration rates, which was identified as a sensitive parameter in the model that also had substantial measurement uncertainty in the field. The calibrated model performed reasonably with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.46. WinSLAMM proved to be a beneficial resource to assess green space performance; however, the sensitivity of the infiltration parameter suggests that field measurements of this characteristic may be needed to achieve accurate results.

Emission of heavy metals from an urban catchment into receiving water and possibility of its limitation on the example of Lodz city

Heavy metals are among the priority pollutants which may have toxic effects on receiving water bodies. They are detected in most of samples of stormwater runoff, but the concentrations are very variable. This paper presents results of study on the amount of heavy metals discharged from urban catchment in Lodz (Poland) in 2011-2013. The research was carried out to identify the most important sources of their emission and to assess the threats to receiving water quality and opportunities of their limitation. The city is equipped with a combined sewerage in the center with 18 combined sewer overflows and with separate system in other parts. Stormwater and wastewater from both systems are discharged into 18 small urban rivers. There is a need of restoration of water bodies in the city. Research results indicate that the main issue is high emission of heavy metals, especially zinc and copper, contained in stormwater. Annual mass loads (g/ha/year) from separate system were 1629 for Zn and 305 for Cu. It was estimated that about 48% of the annual load of Zn, 38% of Cu, 61% of Pb, and 40% of Cd discharged into receiving water came from separate system, respectively 4% of Zn and Cu, 10% of Pb and 11% of Cd from CSOs, and the remaining part from wastewater treatment plant. Effective reduction of heavy metals loads discharged into receiving water requires knowledge of sources and emissions for each catchment. Obtained data may indicate the need to apply centralized solution or decentralized by source control.