Coastal Stakeholders' Perceptions of Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Orthodoxou D, I. Loizides M, Petsa D, Anzidei M. Adapting to sea level rise: participatory, solution-oriented policy tools in vulnerable Mediterranean areas

The coasts of the Mediterranean basin are exposed to the ongoing effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Low elevated coastal plains, river deltas, lagoons and reclamation areas are experiencing beach retreat, coastal erosion and marine flooding. This makes them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), which is expected to increase up to 1 m by 2100 AD, according to the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, selected stakeholders from four Mediterranean coastal areas that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of SLR have been engaged through a structured participatory process for the development of solution-oriented, case-specific and site-specific Policy Tools to address SLR. The developed Policy Tools for the Venice Lagoon, the Metaponto reclamation area and the Basento river mouth, in Italy, the Ebro River Delta in Spain, and the coastal plain of Chalastra, near the Axios River Delta, in Greece, contain relevant, effective and implementable actions stemming from stakeholder interaction and consensus building. The interconnected stakeholder engagement steps employed in this study identified relevant issues that should be considered when defining SLR adaptation policies to bridge knowledge and perception gaps, facilitate knowledge exchange and foster social learning through structured science communication on SLR. This participatory stakeholder process can lay the foundations for more extensive participation in public processes through which the resulting Policy Tools can materialise into collectively accepted, concrete actions to help vulnerable areas adapt to the expected SLR and consequent coastal hazards by the end of this century.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10669-023-09910-5.

A Socioeconomic Dataset of the Risk Associated with the 1% and 0.2% Return Period Stillwater Flood Elevation under Sea-Level Rise for the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Storm surge flooding can cause significant damage to coastal communities. In addition, coastal communities face an increased risk of coastal hazards due to sea-level rise (SLR). This research developed a dataset to communicate the socioeconomic consequences of flooding within the 1% and 0.2% Annual Exceedance Probability Floodplain (AEP) under four SLR scenarios for the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. Assessment methods primarily used HAZUS-MH software, a GIS-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the United States, to estimate natural disasters’ physical, economic, and social impacts. This dataset consists of 29 shapefiles containing seven different measures of storm surge inundation impacts under SLR (including building damage, displaced people and shelter needs, road exposure, essential facilities, wastewater treatment plants, bridges, and vehicle damage). The data is publicly available under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Information and Data Cooperative (GRIIDC).

Community Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change in Coastal Areas of Mexico

Climate change adaptation is an increasingly important topic addressed in the face of the current and expected future impacts by climate change that the social, economic and ecological systems are experiencing worldwide. Despite the advances reported in the literature, adaptation to climate change is still considered a challenge to move from planning to the practical implementation of successful interventions. In this regard, identifying international key barriers, exchanges of experiences and lessons learned may facilitate the progress of the coasts’ sustainable and resilient future. The coast of Mexico is an excellent study area. High population densities occur along the coastal zone, whose main economic activity is related to primary and tertiary sectors. Additionally, a great diversity of coastal ecosystems exists, which are threatened by anthropogenic and hydrometeorological impacts. Under these circumstances, the population is becoming aware of the urgent need to adapt to the consequences of climate change. In this sense, this paper reviews research contributions concerning population perception to climate change and adaptation strategies in Mexico’s coastal zone. The findings highlight critical institutional difficulties and social barriers that have impeded the effective implementation of adaptation strategies to climate change in Mexico and consider steps to address them. However, adaptation strategies that show the prevention culture of some coastal communities have been found and also results of successful projects carried out, especially on mangrove forest and coral reef restoration, which are of essential importance to consider to progress on the path of a successful adaptation to climate change in Mexico.

Understanding Preferences for Coastal Climate Change Adaptation: A Systematic Literature Review

Lack of public support for coastal adaptation can present significant barriers for implementation. In response, policy makers and academics are seeking strategies to build public support for coastal adaptation, which requires a deeper understanding of peoples’ preferences for coastal adaptation and what motives those preferences. Here, we conduct a systematic literature review to understand preferences for coastal adaptation options and the factors influencing these preferences. Ninety peer-reviewed publications meet the inclusion criteria. The findings revealed that hard protection options were often the most frequently preferred, likely due to a desire to maintain current shoreline, for the protection of recreational spaces and private property, and a perceived effectiveness of hard protection options. Soft protection, including nature-based approaches, accommodation, and no action were the next most preferred options. Finally, retreat options were the least preferred, often due to strong place attachment. We identify twenty-eight factors that could influence preferences, with risk perception, place attachment, and financial considerations occurring most frequently in the literature. In the conclusion, we outline the most significant research gaps identified from our analysis and discuss the implication for adaptation research and practice.

Fishing Industry Perspectives on Sea-Level Rise Risk and Adaptation

Sea-level rise, already occurring over Florida’s coast, stands to generate a significant impact on the state’s fishing industry and coastal communities, exposing vulnerable areas and populations to extreme events and disrupting established patterns of fishery and marine resource use. Using a semi-structured interview approach, this study evaluated fishing industry perspectives on sea-level rise risk and adaptation in three Florida coastal communities. The results showed that adaptation responses vary across industry sectors and communities and are strongly influenced by experience, community dynamics, and age. Generally, older fishers are less willing to relocate due to social factors, such as strong place attachment, compared to younger fishers, who are more likely to retreat and/or work from a less vulnerable location. These findings suggest that adaptation responses, while influenced by experience, are mediated by age, attachment to place, and worldviews, and that these factors need to be accounted for when crafting adaptation strategies across coastal communities.

Using Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) to Identify Valued Landscapes Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast has a long history of intense and varied development, from energy infrastructure and seaports to vacation homes and tourism. Coastal populations and development are growing. Concurrently, global climate change will influence sea level rise, resulting in increased flooding, storm surge, and coastal erosion. Regional planners must prepare for sea level rise and develop adaptive solutions to maximize resiliency. Comprehensive coastal vulnerability mapping assessments (CVMA) can integrate social, economic, and physical vulnerability with spatial analysis of natural hazards for local place-based investigations. Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) are a potentially important tool for the spatial collection of stakeholder knowledge for CVMA. The objective of this study was to assess the locations of a range of landscape values, ecosystem services, and development preferences held and identified by the general public using PPGIS to determine if those valued locations are vulnerable to sea level rise. We found that PPGIS can be used to map a wide variety of landscape values and that they can be used to assess vulnerability to sea level rise. We conclude with a discussion on how to integrate PPGIS into participatory CVMA for sea level rise planning.