1
|
Abdallah A, Salman AA, Sholkamy AA, Salman MA, Omar MG, Youssef A, Ameen MA, Abdel Dayem AY, El-Din Shaaban H, Youssef OR, Allah NA, Abdelaty WR. Study of factors affecting Small for Size Syndrome Post-Adult living donor liver transplantation. Asian J Surg 2021; 44:452-458. [PMID: 33189526 DOI: 10.1016/j.asjsur.2020.10.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Revised: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
AIM Recently, increasing evidence showed that small-for-size syndrome (SFSS) is a multifactorial disease which is precipitated by various perioperative factors other than graft size. We conducted the current work to evaluate perioperative effectors, which can increase the risk of SFSS following adult living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT). METHODS This is a retrospective study on 110 adult cirrhotic cases (mean age of 48.4 ± 6.9 years old) who underwent adult LDLT. Most cases were males (89%). Cases were categorized into two groups based on the occurrence of SFSS. The groups were compared regarding preoperative (gender, age, comorbidities, baseline investigations), intraoperative (mean blood pressure and glucose; mean operation time; number of packed red cells, plasma, platelets, and cryoprecipitate units; time of cold and warm ischemia, and anhepatic phase; preclamping and post-reperfusion portal pressures), and postoperative factors (relevant investigations, hospital stay). RESULTS Postoperatively, 23 patients developed SFSS (20.9%). SFSS group had significantly lower preoperative graft recipient weight ratio (GRWR) (0.76 ± 0.1% versus 1.03 ± 0.15, respectively; p < 0.001), and elevated MELD scores (19 ± 2.1 versus 17.9 ± 4; p = 0.024). Preclamping and post-reperfusion portal pressures of ≥22.5 and 17.5 mmHg, exhibited a sensitivity of 95.7% and 91.3% and specificity of 87.4% and 88.9% respectively, for SFSS prediction. CONCLUSION SFSS risk is significantly linked to GRWR, MELD score, and intraoperative portal haemodynamics. Intraoperative portal haemodynamics exhibited good diagnostic accuracy for SFSS prediction and represented promising indicators for the prediction of SFSS.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Abdallah
- General Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Egypt.
| | | | | | | | - Mahmoud Gouda Omar
- Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Egypt.
| | - Ahmed Youssef
- Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Egypt.
| | - Mahmoud A Ameen
- General Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Egypt.
| | | | | | - Ossama Ramzy Youssef
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Egypt.
| | - Nesrin Abd Allah
- Anatomy and Embryology Department, Faculty of Medicine, Menoufia University, Egypt.
| | | |
Collapse
|
2
|
Ko YC, Tsai HI, Lee CW, Lin JR, Lee WC, Yu HP. A nomogram for prediction of early allograft dysfunction in living donor liver transplantation. Medicine (Baltimore) 2020; 99:e22749. [PMID: 33080739 PMCID: PMC7571974 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000022749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Liver transplantation is the treatment of choice for end-stage liver diseases. However, early allograft dysfunction (EAD) is frequently encountered and associated with graft loss or mortality after transplantation. This study aimed to establish a predictive model of EAD after living donor liver transplantation. A total of 77 liver transplants were recruited to the study. Multivariate analysis was utilized to identify significant risk factors for EAD. A nomogram was constructed according to the contributions of the risk factors. The predictive values were determined by discrimination and calibration methods. A cohort of 30 patients was recruited to validate this predictive model. Four independent risk factors, including donor age, intraoperative blood loss, preoperative alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and reperfusion total bilirubin, were identified and used to build the nomogram. The c-statistics of the primary cohort and the validation group were 0.846 and 0.767, respectively. The calibration curves for the probability of EAD presented an acceptable agreement between the prediction by the nomogram and the actual incidence. In conclusion, the study developed a new nomogram for predicting the risk of EAD following living donor liver transplantation. This model may help clinicians to determine individual risk of EAD following living donor liver transplantation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yu-Chen Ko
- Department of Anesthesiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital
| | - Hsin-I Tsai
- Department of Anesthesiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University
| | - Chao-Wei Lee
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital
| | - Jr-Rung Lin
- Clinical Informatics and Medical Statistics Research Center and Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chang Gung University
| | - Wei-Chen Lee
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital
- Department of Liver and Transplantation Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Huang-Ping Yu
- Department of Anesthesiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University
- Department of Anesthesiology, Xiamen Chang Gung Hospital, Xiamen, China
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Gad EH, Alsebaey A, Lotfy M, Eltabbakh M, Sherif AA. Complications and mortality after adult to adult living donor liver transplantation: A retrospective cohort study. Ann Med Surg (Lond) 2015; 4:162-171. [PMID: 26005570 PMCID: PMC4434206 DOI: 10.1016/j.amsu.2015.04.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2015] [Revised: 03/02/2015] [Accepted: 04/20/2015] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is widely performed for patients to resolve the critical shortage of organs from cadavers. Despite rapid implementation of the procedure, both complications and mortality of LDLT are annoying problems. The aim of this study was to analyze complications and mortality of patients after adult to adult LDLT (A-ALDLT) in a single center. METHODS Between April 2003 and November 2013, 167 (A-ALDLT) recipients in National Liver Institute, Egypt were included. We retrospectively analyzed complications and mortality in them. RESULTS The overall incidence of complications was 86.2% (n = 144) and classified as biliary 43.7% (n = 73), vascular 21.6% (n = 36), Small for size syndrome (SFSS) 12.6% (n = 21), Gastrointestinal tract (GIT) 19.8% (n = 33), wound 12.6% (n = 21), chest 19.8% (n = 33), neurological 26.3% (n = 44), renal 21% (n = 35), intra abdominal collection 21.6% (n = 36), recurrent hepatitis C virus (HCV) 16.8% (n = 28), recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 2.4% (n = 4), acute rejection 19.2% (n = 32). 65 (45.1%) of 144 complicated patients died, while 10 (43.5%) of 23 non complicated died. The incidence of whole, in hospital and late mortalities were 44.9%, 28.7% and 16.2% respectively. CONCLUSIONS Mortality was higher among complicated cases where vascular complications and SFSS had significant effect on it so prevention and treatment of them is required for improving outcome.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emad Hamdy Gad
- Hepatobiliary Surgery Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Ayman Alsebaey
- Hepatology Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Maha Lotfy
- Anesthesia Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Mohamed Eltabbakh
- Hepatology Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Ahmed Alshawadfy Sherif
- Hepatobiliary Surgery Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Gad EH, Alsebaey A, Lotfy M, Eltabbakh M, Sherif AA. Complications and mortality after adult to adult living donor liver transplantation: A retrospective cohort study. Ann Med Surg (Lond) 2015. [DOI: https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.amsu.2015.04.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
|
5
|
Gad EH, Alsebaey A, Lotfy M, Eltabbakh M, Sherif AA. Complications and mortality after adult to adult living donor liver transplantation: A retrospective cohort study. Ann Med Surg (Lond) 2015. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amsu.2015.04.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
|
6
|
Gad EH, Alsebaey A, Lotfy M, Eltabbakh M, Sherif AA. Complications and mortality after adult to adult living donor liver transplantation: A retrospective cohort study. ANNALS OF MEDICINE AND SURGERY (2012) 2015. [PMID: 26005570 DOI: 10.1016/j.amsu.2015.04.021.] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is widely performed for patients to resolve the critical shortage of organs from cadavers. Despite rapid implementation of the procedure, both complications and mortality of LDLT are annoying problems. The aim of this study was to analyze complications and mortality of patients after adult to adult LDLT (A-ALDLT) in a single center. METHODS Between April 2003 and November 2013, 167 (A-ALDLT) recipients in National Liver Institute, Egypt were included. We retrospectively analyzed complications and mortality in them. RESULTS The overall incidence of complications was 86.2% (n = 144) and classified as biliary 43.7% (n = 73), vascular 21.6% (n = 36), Small for size syndrome (SFSS) 12.6% (n = 21), Gastrointestinal tract (GIT) 19.8% (n = 33), wound 12.6% (n = 21), chest 19.8% (n = 33), neurological 26.3% (n = 44), renal 21% (n = 35), intra abdominal collection 21.6% (n = 36), recurrent hepatitis C virus (HCV) 16.8% (n = 28), recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 2.4% (n = 4), acute rejection 19.2% (n = 32). 65 (45.1%) of 144 complicated patients died, while 10 (43.5%) of 23 non complicated died. The incidence of whole, in hospital and late mortalities were 44.9%, 28.7% and 16.2% respectively. CONCLUSIONS Mortality was higher among complicated cases where vascular complications and SFSS had significant effect on it so prevention and treatment of them is required for improving outcome.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emad Hamdy Gad
- Hepatobiliary Surgery Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Ayman Alsebaey
- Hepatology Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Maha Lotfy
- Anesthesia Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Mohamed Eltabbakh
- Hepatology Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| | - Ahmed Alshawadfy Sherif
- Hepatobiliary Surgery Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufiya University, Shibin El-Kom, Menoufiya, Egypt
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Kamo N, Kaido T, Hammad A, Ogawa K, Fujimoto Y, Uemura T, Mori A, Hatano E, Okajima H, Uemoto S. Impact of elderly donors for liver transplantation: A single-center experience. Liver Transpl 2015; 21:591-8. [PMID: 25641778 DOI: 10.1002/lt.24086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2014] [Accepted: 01/18/2015] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Elderly donor grafts for liver transplantation (LT) are recognized to be marginal grafts. The present study investigated the impact of using elderly donors for LT. Between June 1990 and August 2012, 1631 patients received LT at Kyoto University Hospital. Out of 1631 patients, 1597 patients received living donor liver transplantation (LDLT), whereas the other 34 patients underwent deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT). Seventy-five grafts that were used came from individuals who were ≥60 years old. We retrospectively analyzed the recipients' survival rates according to donor age. The overall survival rates of the recipients of all LDLT (P < 0.001), adult-to-adult LDLT (P = 0.007), all DDLT (P = 0.026), and adult-to-adult DDLT (P = 0.011) were significantly lower for the elderly donor group versus the younger group and especially for those who were hepatitis C-positive. A multivariate analysis revealed that donor age, ABO incompatibility, and preoperative intensive care unit stay were independent risk factors for poor patient survival in adult-to-adult LDLT. However, no significant differences existed between the 2 groups among those who received adult-to-adult LDLT in and after April 2006. No significant association was found between donor age and incidence of acute cellular rejection. In conclusion, donor age was closely related to the survival rate for LDLT and DDLT, although the impact of donor age was not shown in the recent cases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Naoko Kamo
- Division of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic and Transplant Surgery, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
8
|
Small-for-size syndrome in living-donor liver transplantation using a left lobe graft. Surg Today 2014; 45:663-71. [PMID: 24894564 DOI: 10.1007/s00595-014-0945-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2014] [Accepted: 05/12/2014] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
In living-donor liver transplantation with a left lobe graft, which can reduce the burden on the donor compared to right lobe graft, the main problem is small-for-size (SFS) syndrome. SFS syndrome is a multifactorial disease that includes aspects related to the graft size, graft quality, recipient factors and even technical issues. The main pathophysiology of SFS syndrome is the sinusoidal microcirculatory disturbance induced by shear stress, which is caused by excessive portal inflow into the smaller graft. The donor age, the presence of steatosis of the graft and a poor recipient status are all risk factors for SFS syndrome. To resolve SFS syndrome, portal inflow modulation, splenectomy, splenic artery modulation and outflow modulation have been developed. It is important to establish strict criteria for managing SFS syndrome. Using pharmacological interventions and/or therapeutic approaches that promote liver regeneration could increase the adequate outcomes in SFS liver transplantation. Left lobe liver transplantation could be adopted in Western countries to help resolve the organ shortage.
Collapse
|
9
|
Shin M, Moon HH, Kim JM, Park JB, Kwon CHD, Kim SJ, Joh JW. Importance of donor-recipient age gradient to the prediction of graft outcome after living donor liver transplantation. Transplant Proc 2014; 45:3005-12. [PMID: 24157024 DOI: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2013.08.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Advanced donor age is a well-known risk factor for poor graft function after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). In addition, advanced recipient age has a significant impact because of the high prevalence of comorbidities. We investigated the relationship between donor-recipient age gradient (DRAG) and the posttransplant outcomes in LDLT. METHODS We included 821 consecutive adult recipients who underwent LDLT from June 1997 to May 2011. According to the value of DRAG, they were divided into 2 groups: Negative years (the donor was younger than the recipient) and positive years (the donor was older than the recipient). These groups were further divided into subgroups (≤-21, -20 to -1, 0 to 20, and ≥21 years). We collected retrospectively patient characteristics, laboratory results, medical and surgical complications, and graft loss. RESULTS The positive DRAG group had higher level of posttransplant alkaline phosphatase, but a lower incidence of biliary complications. The negative DRAG group, particularly DRAG ≤ -21 years was associated with the superior 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year graft survivals. Recipients with DRAG ≥ 21 showed persistently inferior graft survival during the observation period. In cases of young donors, transplants utilizing lower DRAG seen between young donors and older recipients showed more favorable graft survival than that of young-to-young transplants. CONCLUSION This study demonstrated that DRAG and a fixed donor age limit could be significant factors to predict graft survival after LDLT. Patients should carefully consider the worse graft survival if the donor is older than the recipient by ≥20.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- M Shin
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
10
|
|
11
|
Alves RCP, Fonseca EAD, Mattos CALD, Abdalla S, Gonçalves JE, Waisberg J. Predictive factors of early graft loss in living donor liver transplantation. ARQUIVOS DE GASTROENTEROLOGIA 2012; 49:157-61. [PMID: 22767004 DOI: 10.1590/s0004-28032012000200011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2011] [Accepted: 03/16/2012] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Living donor liver transplantation has become an alternative to reduce the lack of organ donation. OBJECTIVE To identify factors predictive of early graft loss in the first 3 months after living donor liver transplantation. METHODS Seventy-eight adults submitted to living donor liver transplantation were divided into group I with 62 (79.5%) patients with graft survival longer than 3 months, and group II with 16 (20.5%) patients who died and/or showed graft failure within 3 months after liver transplantation. The variables analyzed were gender, age, etiology of liver disease, Child-Pugh classification, model of end-stage liver disease (MELD score), pretransplantation serum sodium level, and graft weight-to-recipient body weight (GRBW) ratio. The GRBW ratio was categorized into < 0.8 and MELD score into >18. The chi-square test, Student t-test and uni- and multivariate analysis were used for the evaluation of risk factors for early graft loss. RESULTS MELD score <18 (P<0.001) and serum sodium level > 135 mEq/L (P = 0.03) were higher in group II than in group I. In the multivariate analysis MELD scores > 18 (P<0.001) and GRBW ratios < 0.8 (P<0.04) were significant. CONCLUSIONS MELD scores >18 and GRBW < 0.8 ratios are associated with higher probability of graft failure after living donor liver transplantation.
Collapse
|
12
|
Zhang M, Yin F, Chen B, Li Y, Yan L, Wen T, Li B. Posttransplant mortality risk assessment for adult-to-adult right-lobe living donor liver recipients with benign end-stage liver disease. Scand J Gastroenterol 2012; 47:842-52. [PMID: 22546008 DOI: 10.3109/00365521.2012.682089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE A model for living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) outcomes, in concert with pretransplant disease severity assessment, would facilitate informed decision-making on both sides considering donation and transplantation. So far, however, few of studies have focused on models specifically for adult-to-adult right-lobe LDLT recipients with benign end-stage liver diseases. Therefore, we aimed to develop such a prognostic model based on easily obtainable and objective pretransplant characteristics. METHODS With data retrospectively collected on 120 recipients, we used Cox proportional-hazards regression to analyze six donor characteristics and 33 pretransplant recipient variables for correlation with posttransplant mortality. In both a modeling set and a prospective validation set with 30 recipients, the performances of the new Cox model, MELD, and MELD-Na+ were assessed by measuring both calibration ability and discriminative power with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic analysis, respectively. RESULTS By univariate and multivariate analysis, donor age, serum total bilirubin, creatinine, and HBV-DNA level were significantly associated with posttransplant mortality. The Cox model, employing these four variables, yielded good calibration ability in the modeling set χ² = 2.465, p = 0.653) and the validation set χ² = 2.836, p = 0.586), and high discriminative power in the modeling set (c-statistic = 0.826, p = 0.001) and validation set (c-statistic = 0.816, p = 0.028). The calibration ability and discriminative power of MELD and MELD-Na+ in both sets were poor. CONCLUSIONS The newly derived Cox model was valuable in posttransplant mortality risk assessment for adult-to-adult right-lobe LDLT recipients with benign end-stage liver diseases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ming Zhang
- Liver Transplantation Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University Medical School, Chengdu, P.R. China
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
13
|
Kaido T, Egawa H, Tsuji H, Ashihara E, Maekawa T, Uemoto S. In-hospital mortality in adult recipients of living donor liver transplantation: experience of 576 consecutive cases at a single center. Liver Transpl 2009; 15:1420-5. [PMID: 19877211 DOI: 10.1002/lt.21873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) was developed against the background of a scarcity of deceased donors and has a number of disadvantages leading to in-hospital mortality, such as marginal donors and grafts and recipients suffering from severe conditions. We have thus developed surgical and medical innovations to overcome these disadvantages. The present study analyzes the causes of death and factors affecting in-hospital mortality in adult recipients of LDLT. Between November 1994 and December 2007, 576 consecutive adult patients underwent LDLT at a single medical center. Overall in-hospital mortality was 18.9%. The peak rate was 55.6% in 1996, and the rate gradually decreased thereafter to 4.4% in 2007. The most frequent cause of death was infection (62.5%), which was followed by rejection (15.7%) and nonseptic multiple-organ failure (8.9%). Being intensive care unit-bound before the operation, ABO blood type incompatibility, an absence of postoperative enteral nutrition, and a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of 25 or higher were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. In ABO-identical and ABO-compatible cases, retransplantation and a positive lymphocyte crossmatch test were additional independent risk factors. In conclusion, even aggressive efforts, preoperative conditions such as being intensive care unit-bound, a high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, retransplantation, and a positive lymphocyte crossmatch test are still risk factors. Enteral nutrition could be a promising strategy to improve adult LDLT.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Toshimi Kaido
- Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic and Transplant Surgery, Kyoto University School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan.
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
14
|
Kong XJ, Jiang YJ, Zhao QX, Wu J, Liu SL, Tian ZB. Values of end-stage liver disease model in assessment of prognosis in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2009; 17:1786-1790. [DOI: 10.11569/wcjd.v17.i17.1786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM: To compare the prognostic values of for end-stage liver disease (MELD) model and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.
METHODS: From a previously collected database, 203 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis admitted to our hospital were studied and followed up at least for one year. MELD and CTP score and classification were calculated on entry. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) and the area under ROC were used to determine the ability of the scores for predicting three, six and twelve month mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (K-M) was performed using the cut-offs to establish the predictive power of each score.
RESULTS: There were 23, 39 and 85 dead cases within 3, 6 and 12 mo respectively. There was a significant correlation between the MELD and CTP score in 3, 6 and 12 mo (r = 0.76, 0.69, 0.71, P < 0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves of MELD and CTP for the occurrence of death in 3 mo were 0.886 and 0.775. There was a significant difference in the 3 mo between two scores (P < 0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MELD was 0.892 compared with 0.876 for CTP at 6 mo (P > 0.05); the area was 0.873 and 0.886 respectively at 12 mo (P > 0.05). Both MELD and CTP scores predicted the death rate and survival rate within 3, 6 and 12 mo by survival analysis (P < 0.01).
CONCLUSION: MELD is a strong prognosis predictor for the decompensated liver cirrhosis. MELD was significantly better than CTP score for predicting in-hospital mortality in 3 mo. However, these are not superior to CTP score and CTP classification in 6 and 12 mo.
Collapse
|