Evaluating the Impact of Preoperative Geriatric-Specific Variables and Modified Frailty Index on Postoperative Outcomes After Elective Pancreatic Surgery

Predicting loss of independence among geriatric patients following gastrointestinal surgery

BACKGROUND

While existing risk calculators focus on mortality and complications, elderly patients are concerned with how operations will affect their quality of life, especially their independence. We sought to develop a novel clinically relevant and easy-to-use score to predict elderly patients' loss of independence after gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients age ≥ 65 years enrolled in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database and Geriatric Pilot Project who underwent pancreatic, colorectal, or hepatic surgery (January 1, 2014- December 31, 2018). Primary outcome was loss of independence - discharge to facility other than home and decline in functional status. Patients from 2014 to 2017 comprised the training data set. A logistic regression (LR) model was generated using variables with p < 0.2 from the univariable analysis. The six factors most predictive of the outcome composed the short LR model and scoring system. The scoring system was validated with data from 2018.

RESULTS

Of 6,510 operations, 841 patients (13%) lost independence. Training and validation datasets had 5,232 (80%) and 1,278 (20%) patients, respectively. The six most impactful factors in predicting loss of independence were age, preoperative mobility aid use, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, preoperative albumin, non-elective surgery, and race (all OR > 1.83; p < 0.001). The odds ratio of each of these factors were used to create a sixteen-point scoring system. The scoring system demonstrated satisfactory discrimination and calibration across the training and validation datasets, with Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve 0.78 in both and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic of 0.16 and 0.34, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel scoring system predicts loss of independence for geriatric patients after gastrointestinal operations. Using readily available variables, this tool can be applied in the urgent setting and can contribute to elderly patients and their family discussions related to loss of independence prior to high-risk gastrointestinal operations. The applicability of this scoring tool to additional surgical sub-specialties and external validation should be explored in future studies.

The impact of geriatric-specific variables on long-term outcomes in patients with hepatopancreatobiliary and colorectal cancer selected for resection

BACKGROUND

Preoperative geriatric-specific variables (GSV) influence short-term morbidity in surgical patients, but their impact on long-term survival in elderly patients with cancer remains undefined.

STUDY DESIGN

This observational cohort study included patients ≥65 years who underwent hepatopancreatobiliary or colorectal operations for malignancy between 2014 and 2020. Individual patient data included merged ACS NSQIP data, Procedure Targeted, and Geriatric Surgery Research variables. Patients were stratified by age: 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 and presence of these GSVs: mobility aid, preoperative falls, surrogate signed consent, and living alone. Bivariable and multivariable analyses were used to evaluate 1-year mortality and postoperative discharge to facility.

RESULTS

577 patients were included: 62.6 % were 65-74 years old, 31.7 % 75-84, and 5.7 % ≥ 85. 96 patients were discharged to a facility with frequency increasing with age group (11.4 % vs 22.4 % vs 42.4 %, respectively, p < 0.001). 73 patients (12.7 %) died during 1-year follow-up, 32.9 % from cancer recurrence. One-year mortality was associated with undergoing hepatopancreatobiliary operations (p = 0.017), discharge to a facility (p = 0.047), and a surrogate signing consent (p = 0.035). Increasing age (p < 0.001), hepatopancreatobiliary resection (p = 0.002), living home alone (p < 0.001), and mobility aid use (p < 0.001) were associated with discharge to a facility.

CONCLUSION

Geriatric-specific variables, living alone and use of a mobility aid, were associated with discharge to a facility. A surrogate signing consent and discharge to a facility were associated with 1-year mortality. These findings underscore the importance of preoperative patient selection and optimization, efficacious discharge planning, and informed decision-making in the care of elderly cancer patients.

Association of risk analysis index with 90-day failure to rescue following major abdominal surgery in geriatric patients

BACKGROUND

Failure to rescue (FTR) is a quality metric defined as mortality after potentially preventable complications after surgery. Predicting patients who are at the highest risk of mortality after a complication may aid in preventing deaths. Thirty-day follow-up period inadequately captures postoperative deaths; alternatively, a 90-day follow-up period has been advocated. This study aimed to examine the association of a validated frailty metric, the risk analysis index (RAI), with 90-day FTR (FTR-90).

METHODS

Patients aged ≥65 years who underwent a major abdominal operation between 2014 and 2020 at a quaternary care center were abstracted. Institutional data were merged with the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) and Geriatric Surgery Research File variables. The association between RAI and FTR-90 was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 398 patients with postoperative complications were included. Fifty-two patients (13.1%) died during the 90-day follow-up. The FTR-90 group was older (median age: 76 vs 73 years, respectively; P = .002), had a greater preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists classification score (P < .001), and had a higher ACS NSQIP estimated risk of morbidity (0.33% vs 0.20%, P < .001) and mortality (0.067% vs 0.012%, P < .001). The FTR-90 group had a greater median RAI score (23 vs 19; P = .002). The RAI score was independently associated with FTR-90 (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.0042-1.0770; P = .028) but not with FTR-30 (P = .13).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative frailty, as defined by RAI, is independently associated with FTR at 90-day follow-up. FTR-90 captured nearly 60% more deaths than did FTR-30. Frailty has major implications beyond the typical 30-day follow-up period, and a longer follow-up period must be considered.