Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation

Retrospective Analysis of Radiofrequency Ablation in Patients with Small Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Survival Outcomes and Development of a Machine Learning Prognostic Model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in improving long-term survival outcomes for patients with a solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) measuring 5 cm or less remains uncertain. This study was designed to elucidate the impact of RFA therapy on the survival outcomes of these patients and to construct a prognostic model for patients following RFA.

METHODS

This study was performed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, focusing on patients diagnosed with a solitary HCC lesion ≤5 cm in size. We compared the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates of these patients with those of patients who received hepatectomy, radiotherapy, or chemotherapy or who were part of a blank control group. To enhance the reliability of our findings, we employed stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting (sIPTW) and stratified analyses. Additionally, we conducted a Cox regression analysis to identify prognostic factors. XGBoost models were developed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS. The XGBoost models were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA) curves and so on.

RESULTS

Regardless of whether the data were unadjusted or adjusted for the use of sIPTWs, the 5-year OS (46.7%) and CSS (58.9%) rates were greater in the RFA group than in the radiotherapy (27.1%/35.8%), chemotherapy (32.9%/43.7%), and blank control (18.6%/30.7%) groups, but these rates were lower than those in the hepatectomy group (69.4%/78.9%). Stratified analysis based on age and cirrhosis status revealed that RFA and hepatectomy yielded similar OS and CSS outcomes for patients with cirrhosis aged over 65 years. Age, race, marital status, grade, cirrhosis status, tumor size, and AFP level were selected to construct the XGBoost models based on the training cohort. The areas under the curve (AUCs) for 1, 3, and 5 years in the validation cohort were 0.88, 0.81, and 0.79, respectively. Calibration plots further demonstrated the consistency between the predicted and actual values in both the training and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

RFA can improve the survival of patients diagnosed with a solitary HCC lesion ≤5 cm. In certain clinical scenarios, RFA achieves survival outcomes comparable to those of hepatectomy. The XGBoost models developed in this study performed admirably in predicting the CSS of patients with solitary HCC tumors smaller than 5 cm following RFA.

Prognostic nomogram model for selecting between transarterial chemoembolization plus lenvatinib, with and without PD-1 inhibitor in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To establish and verify a prognostic nomogram model for selecting in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) treated by transarterial chemoembolization plus lenvatinib (TACE-L) with or without PD-1 inhibitor.

METHODS

Data of 241 uHCC patients who underwent TACE-L (n = 128) and TACE-L plus PD-1 inhibitor (TACE-L-P, n = 113) were retrospectively reviewed. The differences in tumour responses, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs) between two groups were compared, and a prognostic nomogram model was established based on independent clinical-radiologic factors and confirmed by Cox regression analysis for predicting PFS and OS. The treatment selection for uHCC patients was stratified by the nomogram score.

RESULTS

Compared to TACE-L, TACE-L-P presented prolonged PFS (14.0 vs. 9.0 months, P < .001), longer OS (24.0 vs. 15.0 months, P < .001), and a better overall objective response rate (54.0% vs. 32.8%, P = .001). There was no significant difference between the rate of AEs in the TACE-L-P and the TACE-L (56.64% vs. 46.09%, P = .102) and the rate of grade ≥ 3 AEs (11.50% vs. 9.38%, P = .588), respectively. The nomogram model presented good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.790 for predicting PFS and 0.749 for predicting OS. Patients who underwent TACE-L and obtained a nomogram score >9 demonstrated improved 2-year PFS when transferred to TACE-L-P, and those with a nomogram ≤25 had better 2-year OS when transferred to TACE-L-P.

CONCLUSIONS

TACE-L-P showed significant improvements in efficiency and safety for uHCC patients compared with TACE-L. The nomogram was useful for stratifying treatment decisions and selecting a suitable population for uHCC patients.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Prognostic nomogram model is of great value in predicting individualized survival benefits for uHCC patients after TACE-L or/and TACE-L-P. And the nomogram was helpful for selection between TACE-L-P and TACE-L among uHCC patients.

Prognostic significance of combined α-fetoprotein and CA19-9 for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies considerably among patients with the same disease stage and characteristics, and only about two thirds show high levels of α-fetoprotein (AFP), a common prognostic indicator for HCC. Here, we assessed whether the combination of presurgical serum levels of AFP and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) can predict the prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy.

METHODS

The clinicopathological characteristics and post-hepatectomy outcomes of 711 HCC patients were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were classified into three groups based on whether their preoperative serum levels of both AFP and CA19-9 were higher than the respective cut-offs of 400 ng/ml and 37 U/ml [double positive (DP)], the level of only one marker was higher than the cut-off [single positive (SP)], or neither level was higher than the cut-off [negative (N)]. The overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed to identify the clinicopathological factors significantly associated with HCC prognosis.

RESULTS

The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year RFS and OS rates in the N group were significantly higher than those in the SP group, while the DP group showed the lowest rates. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that large tumor size (> 5 cm), multiple tumors (≥ 2), incomplete tumor capsule, positive microvascular invasion, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer C stage, and CA19-9 level > 37 U/mL were independent risk factors for RFS and OS in HCC patients. Moreover, aspartate aminotransferase levels > 40 U/L proved to be an independent prognostic factor for OS.

CONCLUSION

The combination of serum AFP and CA19-9 levels may be a useful prognostic marker for HCC patients after hepatectomy.

Radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: Prognostic factors and recent advances

With the improvement of technology and diagnostic level, radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has made rapid progress in the treatment of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the past two decades. Especially, the overall survival after the treatment of small HCCs by RFA can be comparable to that achieved by hepatic resection. The 10-year survival rates of RFA for HCC were 27.3%-46.1%, and for solitary HCC less than 3 cm, the 10-year survival rate is about 74.0%. RFA combined with other therapies can expand the indications of RFA treatment and benefit the survival of patients with HCC. The prognostic model of RFA for HCC provides a powerful tool for individualized clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Development and Validation of a Contrast-Enhanced CT-Based Radiomics Nomogram for Prediction of Therapeutic Efficacy of Anti-PD-1 Antibodies in Advanced HCC Patients

Background

There is no study accessible now assessing the prognostic aspect of radiomics for anti-PD-1 therapy for patients with HCC.

Aim

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram by incorporating the pretreatment contrast-enhanced Computed tomography (CT) images and clinical risk factors to estimate the anti-PD-1 treatment efficacy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients.

Methods

A total of 58 patients with advanced HCC who were refractory to the standard first-line of therapy, and received PD-1 inhibitor treatment with Toripalimab, Camrelizumab, or Sintilimab from 1st January 2019 to 31 July 2020 were enrolled and divided into two sets randomly: training set (n = 40) and validation set (n = 18). Radiomics features were extracted from non-enhanced and contrast-enhanced CT scans and selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. Finally, a radiomics nomogram was developed based on by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

Results

Eight radiomics features from the whole tumor and peritumoral regions were selected and comprised of the Fusion Radiomics score. Together with two clinical factors (tumor embolus and ALBI grade), a radiomics nomogram was developed with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.894 (95% CI, 0.797–0.991) and 0.883 (95% CI, 0.716–0.998) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed that nomogram had good consistency and clinical usefulness.

Conclusions

This study has developed and validated a radiomics nomogram by incorporating the pretreatment CECT images and clinical factors to predict the anti-PD-1 treatment efficacy in patients with advanced HCC.