Risk factors for early death in patients undergoing treatment for multiple myeloma

Development of a nomogram prognostic model for early Grade ≥ 3 infection in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma based on immunoparesis

BACKGROUND

Infection, a significant cause of death in multiple myeloma (MM) patients, is a common complication and is closely associated with immunoparesis. There exists no clear definition of early infection, so early infection is defined in this paper as the occurrence within 3 months after diagnosis, considering the high incidence of infections within 3 months after diagnosis. This study established a new nomogram model based on immunoparesis to identify MM patients with high-risk early infection.

METHODS

A retrospective collection of 430 NDMM patients from June 2013 to June 2022 was conducted, and the patients were further divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. In the training cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to select the best variables that can be used to establish a new nomogram prediction model. Validation was performed in the validation and entire cohorts.

RESULTS

After diagnosis, 67.7 % of the patients suffered from severe infection within 1 year, and 59.5 % experienced the first severe infection within 3 months. Variables associated with an increased risk of severe infection in the first 3 months included: BMPC, D-dimer, serum β2 microglobulin, immunoparesis, albumin, and eGFR. The nomogram based on the above six factors achieved a good C-index of 0.754, 0.73, and 0.731 in predicting early infection in the training cohort, validation cohort, and entire cohort, respectively. Finally, the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram showed that the model provided superior diagnostic capacity and clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we established a nomogram model to predict early grade ≥ 3 infection in NDMM patients. This model can assist clinicians in identifying NDMM patients with high-risk infections and improve their prognosis through early intervention.

The Relationship between Serum miRNAs and Early Mortality in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated with Bortezomib-Based Regimens

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy characterized by the clonal proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment. Despite the progress made in treatment, some MM patients still die within the first year of diagnosis. Numerous studies investigating microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns suggest they may be good prognostic markers. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the expression of selected miRNAs in the serum of MM patients who were later treated with bortezomib-based regimens, and to determine their potential to predict early mortality. The study was conducted in 70 prospectively recruited patients with newly diagnosed MM admitted to the Department of Hematology of the Copernicus Memorial Hospital, Lodz (Poland) between 2017 and 2021. Among them, 17 patients experienced death within 12 months of diagnosis. The expression of 31 selected miRNAs was determined using a miRCURY LNA miRNA Custom PCR Panel. The obtained clinical data included patient characteristics on diagnosis, treatment regimen, response to treatment, and follow-up. Differential expression analysis found two miRNAs to be significantly downregulated in the early mortality group: hsa-miR-328-3p (fold change-FC: 0.72, p = 0.0342) and hsa-miR-409-3p (FC: 0.49, p = 0.0357). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the early mortality rate. The final model consisted of hsa-miR-409-3p, hsa-miR-328-3p, age, and R-ISS 3. It yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.863 (95%CI: 0.761-0.965) with 88.2% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity. Further external validation of our model is needed to confirm its clinical value.

Predictors of early mortality in multiple myeloma: Results from the Australian and New Zealand Myeloma and Related Diseases Registry (MRDR)

The frequency and causes of early mortality in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) have not been well described in the era of novel agents. We investigated early mortality in a prospective cohort study of all patients with NDMM registered on the Australian and New Zealand Myeloma and Related Diseases Registry (MRDR) at 36 institutions between July 2011 and March 2020. Early mortality was defined as death from any cause within the first 12 months after diagnosis. A total of 2377 patients with NDMM were included in the analysis, with a median (interquartile range) age of 67.4 (58.9–74.60 years, and 60% were male. Overall, 216 (9.1%) patients died within 12 months, with 119 (4.5%) having died within 6 months. Variables that were independent predictors of early mortality after adjustment in multivariable regression included age (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.08; p < 0.001), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.26–1.79; p < 0.001), serum albumin (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98; p < 0.001), cardiac disease (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.35–2.86; p < 0.001) and International Staging System (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.07–1.82; p = 0.01). For those with a primary cause of death available, it was reported as disease‐related in 151 (78%), infection 13 (7%), other 29 (15%). Infection was listed as a contributing factor for death in 38% of patients.

Development of a Risk Assessment Model for Early Grade ≥ 3 Infection During the First 3 Months in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Multiple Myeloma Based on a Multicenter, Real-World Analysis in China

Purpose

The study aimed to assess factors associated with early infection and identify patients at high risk of developing infection in multiple myeloma.

Methods

The study retrospectively analyzed patients with MM seen at two medical centers between January 2013 and June 2019. One medical center reported 745 cases, of which 540 of the cases were available for analysis and were further subdivided into training cohort and internal validation cohort. 169 cases from the other medical center served as an external validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression model was used for data dimension reduction, feature selection, and model building.

Results

Bacteria and the respiratory tract were the most common pathogen and localization of infection, respectively. In the training cohort, PS≥2, HGB<35g/L of the lower limit of normal range, β2MG≥6.0mg/L, and GLB≥2.1 times the upper limit of normal range were identified as factors associated with early grade ≥ 3 infections by Lasso regression. An infection risk model of MM (IRMM) was established to define high-, moderate- and low-risk groups, which showed significantly different rates of infection in the training cohort (46.5% vs. 22.1% vs. 8.8%, p<0.0001), internal validation cohort (37.9% vs. 24.1% vs. 13.0%, p=0.009) and external validation cohort (40.0% vs. 29.2% vs. 8.5%, p=0.0003). IRMM displayed good calibration (p<0.05) and discrimination with AUC values of 0.76, 0.67 and 0.71 in the three cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, IRMM still showed good classification ability in immunomodulatory (IMiD) based regimens, proteasome-inhibitors (PI) based regimens and combined IMiD and PI regimens.

Conclusion

In this study, we determined risk factors for early grade ≥ 3 infection and established a predictive model to help clinicians identify MM patients with high-risk infection.

HLC Pair Suppression as a Risk Factor for Bacterial Bloodstream Infections and Early Mortality in Newly Diagnosed Intact Immunoglobulin Multiple Myeloma Patients

Despite the outstanding progresses in Multiple Myeloma treatment options in the last decades, it remains an incurable disease nowadays. Infectious events are a complication due to an impaired immune system associated with MM, sometimes a life-threatening one, particularly on the first months after the diagnosis. Both the underlying disease and treatment can contribute to the infection risk, so a biomarker that assess this risk could be highly relevant for a more tailored management of the patient. The measurement of the heavy+light chain (HLC) pairs of immunoglobulins in serum allows the quantification of both the monoclonal component and the non-monoclonal immunoglobulin of the same isotype. This approach has demonstrated high sensitivity for the detection of the clonality and prognostic value for MM. HLC pair suppression itself has prognostic power and it has been proposed to be a reflection of the immune system' attempt to control the tumor. In this study we evaluated the impact of the HLC pair suppression on the rate of bloodstream infections (BSI) and early death in 115 newly diagnosed MM patients. Twenty-one percent of the patients suffered a BSI in the first 6 months after diagnosis, of which 58% died within this period, accounting to 67% of the early deaths in global and highlighting the major impact of infections on MM patients in a "real world" setting. Severe HLC pair suppression identified patients with a higher risk of early BSI (HR: 6,97, p=0,009), and extreme HLC pair suppression together with BSI event and age >65 were independent risk factors for early death (p<0,001). Based on these factors, a stratification model was generated to allow identify patients at a higher risk of early death and poorer OS, with an apparently better performance than the ISS on the early death context. In conclusion, HLC pair suppression associates with both a higher risk of life-threatening early infection and early death in newly diagnosed MM patients. Patients older than 65 with extreme HLC pair suppression and BSI are at a high risk of early death, and thus patients presenting with these criteria have a very adverse prognosis.

What the Intensivists Need to Know About Critically Ill Myeloma Patients

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy characterized by an increase in aberrant plasma cells in the bone marrow leading to rising monoclonal protein in serum and urine. With the introduction of novel therapies with manageable side effects, this incurable disease has evolved into a chronic disease with an acceptable quality of life for the majority of patients. Accordingly, management of acute complications is fundamental in reducing the morbidity and mortality in MM. MM emergencies include symptoms and signs related directly to the disease and/or to the treatment; many organs may be involved including, but not limited to, renal, cardiovascular, neurologic, hematologic, and infectious complications. This review will focus on the numerous approaches that are aimed at managing these complications.

The Role of the Local Bone Marrow Renin-Angiotensin System in Multiple Myeloma

Objective:

Angiotensin II promotes growth and angiogenesis via type 1 receptors (AGTR1) in certain tumors. In this study, we examine the bone marrow AGTR1 expression in multiple myeloma (MM) and its relationship with the regulation of angiogenesis and prognostic factors.

Materials and Methods:

Bone marrow AGTR1 mRNA levels of 39 MM patients and 15 healthy controls were analyzed with quantitative RT-PCR. Immunohistochemical staining of the tissue vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), CD34, and factor VIIIrAg (fVIIIrAg) was used to assess bone marrow angiogenesis.

Results:

Bone marrow samples of the patients showed increased VEGF, fVIIIrAg, and CD34 staining and higher AGTR1 expression levels when compared to controls. Patients with severe-diffuse bone marrow infiltration showed higher bone marrow VEGF, fVIIIrAg, CD34, and AGTR1 mRNA levels when compared to other patients.

Conclusion:

AGTR1 expression was found positively correlated with plasma β2-microglobulin level and patients with increased AGTR1 expression showed increased bone marrow CD34 levels.

Early mortality in myeloma patients treated with first-generation novel agents thalidomide, lenalidomide, bortezomib at diagnosis: A pooled analysis

INTRODUCTION

Early toxic death (≤60 days of diagnosis) in elderly multiple myeloma (MM) patients is attributable to active disease, age and co-morbidities. Rate of early toxic deaths is 10% with conventional chemotherapy mainly due to infection and renal failure. Novel agents have improved MM outcome at the expense of newer toxicity.

METHODS

We analyzed 1146 individual patient data to assess toxic deaths during induction treatment with first-generation novel agents thalidomide, lenalidomide, bortezomib.

RESULTS

During first-line therapy, 119/1146 patients (10%) died for any cause, and 47/1146 (4%) due to toxicity, including 12/1146 (1%) early deaths. The 24-month cumulative incidence was 4.1% without any difference between bortezomib (18/503 patients, 4%) and lenalidomide (29/643patients, 5%; p = 0.31). Toxic deaths occurred in 34/1039 (3%) patients <80 years and 13/107 (12%) patients ≥80 years. Causes were cardiac events (28%), infections (26%) and vascular complications (15%). In a multivariate analysis, older age and unfavorable ISS stage increased the risk of death.

CONCLUSION

First-generation novel agents significantly reduced toxic deaths compared to conventional chemotherapy. One third of deaths during first-line therapy were due to cumulative drug-related toxicities, thus supportive approaches and prevention strategies should be optimized. The higher mortality rate for toxicity in octogenarians confirms the need for a careful frailty assessment.

Recognition of early mortality in multiple myeloma by a prediction matrix

Early mortality (EM; death ≤ 6 months from diagnosis) has been reported in several newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) trials. Before the era of novel agents, the incidence was 10%‐14%. Causes of death included infections/pneumonia, renal failure, refractory disease, and cardiac events. Staging systems, such as the revised International Staging System (r‐ISS), and prognostic factors including cytogenetics, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and myeloma‐specific factors, are useful to assess overall prognosis; however, they cannot predict EM. We evaluated patients treated with novel agents in the Connect MM^® Registry and identified risk factors of the EM cohort. Eligible patients were enrolled in the registry within 60 days of diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate associations between baseline characteristics and EM. Prediction matrices for EM were constructed from a logistic model. Between September 2009 and December 2011, 1493 patients were enrolled in the registry and had adequate follow‐up. Of these patients, 102 (6.8%) had EM and 1391 (93.2%) survived for > 180 days. Baseline factors significantly associated with increased EM risk included age > 75 years, higher Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lower EQ‐5D mobility score, higher ISS stage, lower platelet count, and prior hypertension. Renal insufficiency trended toward increased EM risk. These risk factors were incorporated into a prediction matrix for EM. The EM prediction matrix uses differential weighting of risk factors to calculate EM risk in patients with NDMM. Identifying patients at risk for EM may provide new opportunities to implement patient‐specific treatment strategies to improve outcomes.

Risk factors and characteristics of blood stream infections in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND

Patients with multiple myeloma are generally immune-compromised either due to pronounced depression in primary antibody responses or because of anti-myeloma therapy. Infection is a major risk factor for early deaths among these patients. The impact of blood stream infections (BSI) on newly diagnosed myeloma patients has been less studied. We aimed to study the incidence and risk factors of BSI within 3 months after diagnosis of multiple myeloma in a tertiary referral center.

METHODS

Between November 2002 and December 2008, consecutive patients with multiple myeloma in Taipei Veterans General Hospital were retrospectively enrolled. Characteristics of patients with or without BSI were collected. Possible factors associated with development of BSI were analyzed by Cox regression.

RESULTS

There were a total of 222 patients. The incidence of BSI within 3 months after diagnosis is 11.7%. The patients with BSI had poorer survival outcomes than those without (mortality rate: 50% vs. 20.9%, p < 0.001). Moreover, advanced International Staging System stage (stage III vs. I/II: odds ratio [OR] 2.69, p = 0.049) and poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (ECOG > 2 vs. ≤ 2: OR 3.58, p = 0.005) were the independent risk factors of BSI, whereas immunoglobulin deficiency and low absolute lymphocyte count were not associated with risk of BSI development.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the characteristic of myeloma patients with BSI and the importance of disease and host factors on risk of BSI. Myeloma patients with risks of BSI should be properly managed to reduce early mortality.

Risk of Early Mortality in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma

The overall survival of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) has been improved greatly over the last 2 decades with the broader use of novel drugs and autologous tandem transplantation. However, more than one tenth of myeloma patients still die shortly after diagnosis. We therefore aim to investigate the risk factors of early mortality (death within 60 days after diagnosis) in patients with MM. We included in this study 451 consecutive patients with MM, newly diagnosed at an Asian tertiary medical center between January 1, 2002 and April 30, 2015. A total of 57 subjects who experienced early mortality were identified. Risk factors for early mortality in myeloma patients were collected and analyzed. Early mortality occurred in 57 (12.6%) of the myeloma patients. In the multivariate analysis, being male (adjusted OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.17-7.31), serum albumin < 3.5  g/dL (adjusted OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.09-6.74), primary plasma cell leukemia (adjusted OR 17.61, 95% CI 1.01-306.05), serum albumin (adjusted OR 2.70, 95% CI 1.15-6.38), corrected serum calcium ≥ 12  mg/dL (adjusted OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.21-7.14), and LDH ≥ 250  U/L (adjusted OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.50-6.27) were identified as independent risk factors of early mortality. Pneumonia with other infections contributed most to early mortality (n = 36, 65%), followed by renal failure and cardiac failure. The early mortality rate is high (12.6%) in patients with MM. Patients who are male and those with primary plasma cell leukemia, low serum albumin, high-corrected serum calcium, or LDH are at risk of early mortality. Nearly two thirds of the myeloma patients who experienced early mortality in our study (37 of 57, 65%) died of infection. Once a high-risk group is identified, much effort is required to target new approaches for prevention, early detection, and treatment of infections.

Infectious complications in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: A complication from the past?

Infectious complications are an important risk factor for early mortality in patients with multiple myeloma. However, data about the impact and severity of infections in these patients in the era of new therapies have not been properly analyzed. This review has reviewed the incidence and severity of infections complications and infection-related mortality during induction treatment in patients with newly diagnosed myeloma receiving regimens with new drugs within randomized trials. The results show that infections are still a major cause of morbidity, especially among elderly patients receiving immunomodulatory drugs seen in up to 28% of patients in some trials vs less than 10% among transplant-eligible patients. Overall infection-related mortality ranged from 0-7% in transplant-ineligible patients, with no infection-related deaths in the majority of the trials including younger patients. Strategies directed to further reduce these complications and a better knowledge of their impact in patients treated outside clinical trials are needed.

Common community-acquired infections and subsequent risk of multiple myeloma: a population-based study

The role of bacteria and viruses as aetiological agents in the pathogenesis of cancer has been well established for several sites, including a number of haematological malignancies. Less clear is the impact of such exposures on the subsequent development of multiple myeloma (MM). Using the population-based U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare dataset, 15,318 elderly MM and 200,000 controls were identified to investigate the impact of 14 common community-acquired infections and risk of MM. Odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were adjusted for sex, age and calendar year of selection. The 13-month period prior to diagnosis/selection was excluded. Risk of MM was increased by 5-39% following Medicare claims for eight of the investigated infections. Positive associations were observed for several infections including bronchitis (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.18), sinusitis (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20) pneumonia (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.21-1.33), herpes zoster (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.29-1.49) and cystitis (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.14). Each of these infections remained significantly elevated following the exclusion of more than 6 years of claims data. Exposure to infectious antigens may therefore play a role in the development of MM. Alternatively, the observed associations may be a manifestation of an underlying immune disturbance present several years prior to MM diagnosis and thereby part of the natural history of disease progression.

Living liver donor death related to complications of myeloma

We report a donor death after right hepatectomy for living donor transplantation due to an undiagnosed myeloma. The 47-year-old donor, who was the 147th case performed in our department, was in excellent health without any abnormalities in the preoperative investigations. Despite an uneventful right hepatectomy without transfusion, the patient developed a partial thrombus of the inferior vena cava with a right proximal pulmonary trunk embolism on postoperative day 6. Subsequently, he developed multiorgan dysfunction leading to a coagulopathy, respiratory distress, and renal failure requiring hemodialysis and mechanical ventilation. This clinical scenario led us to suspect a hematological disorder. Immune electrophoresis showed a monoclonal peak of immunoglobulin G (8.7 g/L), a myelogram revealed an abnormally high level of dystrophic plasmocytes (more than 7%), and biopsies of salivary glands confirmed the diagnosis of immunoglobulin G kappa myeloma. The patient progressively deteriorated because of simultaneous hemorrhagic and infectious pulmonary complications resulting in septic shock. Despite an adequate combination of antimicrobial therapy and pleural drainage, the donor died on postoperative day 57 from multiple organ failure. This unusual cause of donor death after right hepatectomy reinforces the need for an extensive preoperative assessment. We advocate the addition of urinary protein loss and electrophoresis to the standard donor assessment protocol.

Early mortality after diagnosis of multiple myeloma: analysis of patients entered onto the United kingdom Medical Research Council trials between 1980 and 2002--Medical Research Council Adult Leukaemia Working Party

PURPOSE

Early mortality in multiple myeloma (MM) is usually attributed to combined effects of active disease and comorbid factors. We have studied early deaths in a series of large multicenter trials to assess direct causes of death, their predictability, and whether current management strategies have reduced their frequency.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 3,107 newly diagnosed patients entered onto United Kingdom Medical Research Council MM trials from 1980 to 2002 were studied. Trial files, final clinical summaries, and postmortem reports were analyzed.

RESULTS

Death within 60 days of trial entry occurred in 299 patients (10%). Logistic regression modeling identified beta 2-microglobulin, performance status, and age as the most important predictors of early death, but only with 61% sensitivity and 73% specificity. Forty-five percent of deaths were attributable to infection, which was often associated with bone pain (particularly thoracic pain) and delay in presenting to medical care. Neutropenia was present at diagnosis in only 11 of the 135 deaths from infection. Renal failure was present in 28% of early deaths and was linked to light-chain MM, hypercalcemia, dehydration, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. There was no time related reduction in the percentage or nature of early deaths in 1,550 patients older than 65 years receiving similar therapy between 1982 and 2002.

CONCLUSION

A tenth of patients die within 60 days of diagnosis of MM. Infection and renal failure are the main direct causes of early mortality, which cannot be accurately predicted by presenting prognostic features. All patients should be considered at high risk of death during induction therapy.