Coalescence times for three genes provide sufficient information to distinguish population structure from population size changes

Genetic diversity in a long-lived mammal is explained by the past's demographic shadow and current connectivity

Within-species genetic diversity is crucial for the persistence and integrity of populations and ecosystems. Conservation actions require an understanding of factors influencing genetic diversity, especially in the context of global change. Both population size and connectivity are factors greatly influencing genetic diversity; the relative importance of these factors can, however, change through time. Hence, quantifying the degree to which population size or genetic connectivity are shaping genetic diversity, and at which ecological time scale (past or present), is challenging, yet essential for the development of efficient conservation strategies. In this study, we estimated the genetic diversity of 42 colonies of Rhinolophus hipposideros, a long-lived mammal vulnerable to global change, sampling locations spanning its continental northern range. Here, we present an integrative approach that disentangles and quantifies the contribution of different connectivity measures in addition to contemporary colony size and historic bottlenecks in shaping genetic diversity. In our study, the best model explained 64% of the variation in genetic diversity. It included historic bottlenecks, contemporary colony size, connectivity and a negative interaction between the latter two. Contemporary connectivity explained most genetic diversity when considering a 65 km radius around the focal colonies, emphasizing the large geographic scale at which the positive impact of connectivity on genetic diversity is most profound and hence, the minimum scale at which conservation should be planned. Our results highlight that the relative importance of the two main factors shaping genetic diversity varies through time, emphasizing the relevance of disentangling them to ensure appropriate conservation strategies.

Inferring number of populations and changes in connectivity under the n-island model

Inferring the demographic history of species is one of the greatest challenges in populations genetics. This history is often represented as a history of size changes, ignoring population structure. Alternatively, when structure is assumed, it is defined a priori as a population tree and not inferred. Here we propose a framework based on the IICR (Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate). The IICR can be estimated for a single diploid individual using the PSMC method of Li and Durbin (2011). For an isolated panmictic population, the IICR matches the population size history, and this is how the PSMC outputs are generally interpreted. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that the IICR is a function of the demographic model and sampling scheme with limited connection to population size changes. Our method fits observed IICR curves of diploid individuals with IICR curves obtained under piecewise stationary symmetrical island models. In our models we assume a fixed number of time periods during which gene flow is constant, but gene flow is allowed to change between time periods. We infer the number of islands, their sizes, the periods at which connectivity changes and the corresponding rates of connectivity. Validation with simulated data showed that the method can accurately recover most of the scenario parameters. Our application to a set of five human PSMCs yielded demographic histories that are in agreement with previous studies using similar methods and with recent research suggesting ancient human structure. They are in contrast with the view of human evolution consisting of one ancestral population branching into three large continental and panmictic populations with varying degrees of connectivity and no population structure within each continent.

An instantaneous coalescent method insensitive to population structure

Conventional coalescent inferences of population history make the critical assumption that the population under examination is panmictic. However, most populations are structured. This complicates the prevailing coalescent analyses and sometimes leads to inaccurate estimates. To develop a coalescent method unhampered by population structure, we perform two analyses. First, we demonstrate that the coalescent probability of two randomly sampled alleles from the immediate preceding generation (one generation back) is independent of population structure. Second, motivated by this finding, we propose a new coalescent method: i-coalescent analysis. The i-coalescent analysis computes the instantaneous coalescent rate by using a phylogenetic tree of sampled alleles. Using simulated data, we broadly demonstrate the capability of i-coalescent analysis to accurately reconstruct population size dynamics of highly structured populations, although we find this method often requires larger sample sizes for structured populations than for panmictic populations. Overall, our results indicate i-coalescent analysis to be a useful tool, especially for the inference of population histories with intractable structure such as the developmental history of cell populations in the organs of complex organisms.