On asymptotic joint distributions of cherries and pitchforks for random phylogenetic trees

Inference of chromosome selection parameters and missegregation rate in cancer from DNA-sequencing data

Aneuploidy is frequently observed in cancers and has been linked to poor patient outcome. Analysis of aneuploidy in DNA-sequencing (DNA-seq) data necessitates untangling the effects of the Copy Number Aberration (CNA) occurrence rates and the selection coefficients that act upon the resulting karyotypes. We introduce a parameter inference algorithm that takes advantage of both bulk and single-cell DNA-seq cohorts. The method is based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and utilizes CINner, our recently introduced simulation algorithm of chromosomal instability in cancer. We examine three groups of statistics to summarize the data in the ABC routine: (A) Copy Number-based measures, (B) phylogeny tip statistics, and (C) phylogeny balance indices. Using these statistics, our method can recover both the CNA probabilities and selection parameters from ground truth data, and performs well even for data cohorts of relatively small sizes. We find that only statistics in groups A and C are well-suited for identifying CNA probabilities, and only group A carries the signals for estimating selection parameters. Moreover, the low number of CNA events at large scale compared to cell counts in single-cell samples means that statistics in group B cannot be estimated accurately using phylogeny reconstruction algorithms at the chromosome level. As data from both bulk and single-cell DNA-sequencing techniques becomes increasingly available, our inference framework promises to facilitate the analysis of distinct cancer types, differentiation between selection and neutral drift, and prediction of cancer clonal dynamics.

Distributions of 4-subtree patterns for uniform random unrooted phylogenetic trees

Tree shape statistics based on peripheral structures have been utilized to study evolutionary mechanisms and inference methods. Partially motivated by a recent study by Pouryahya and Sankoff on modeling the accumulation of subgenomes in the evolution of polyploids, we present the distribution of subtree patterns with four or fewer leaves for the unrooted Proportional to Distinguishable Arrangements (PDA) model. We derive a recursive formula for computing the joint distributions, as well as a Strong Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the joint distributions. This enables us to confirm several conjectures proposed by Pouryahya and Sankoff, as well as provide some theoretical insights into their observations. Based on their empirical datasets, we demonstrate that the statistical test based on the joint distribution could be more sensitive than those based on one individual subtree pattern to detect the existence of evolutionary forces such as whole genome duplication.

Distributions of cherries and pitchforks for the Ford model

Distributional properties of tree shape statistics under random phylogenetic tree models play an important role in investigating the evolutionary forces underlying the observed phylogenies. In this paper, we study two subtree counting statistics, the number of cherries and that of pitchforks for the Ford model, the alpha model introduced by Daniel Ford. It is a one-parameter family of random phylogenetic tree models which includes the proportional to distinguishable arrangement (PDA) and the Yule models, two tree models commonly used in phylogenetics. Based on a non-uniform version of the extended Pólya urn models in which negative entries are permitted for their replacement matrices, we obtain the strong law of large numbers and the central limit theorem for the joint distribution of these two statistics for the Ford model. Furthermore, we derive a recursive formula for computing the exact joint distribution of these two statistics. This leads to exact formulas for their means and higher order asymptotic expansions of their second moments, which allows us to identify a critical parameter value for the correlation between these two statistics. That is, when the number of tree leaves is sufficiently large, they are negatively correlated for 0≤α≤1/2 and positively correlated for 1/2<α<1.