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Deng Q, Woldegerima WA, Zhang W, Asgary A, Kong JD, Flicker S, Ogden NH, Orbinski J, Bragazzi NL, Wu J. Uncovering the impact of infection routes on within-host MPXV dynamics: Insights from a mathematical modeling study. PLoS Comput Biol 2025; 21:e1013073. [PMID: 40388391 PMCID: PMC12088049 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/21/2025] [Indexed: 05/21/2025] Open
Abstract
The unprecedented mpox outbreak in non-endemic regions during 2022-2023, which has seen a recent resurgence in late 2023-2024, poses a significant public health threat. Despite its global spread, the viral dynamics of mpox infection and the specific characteristics driving these outbreaks remain insufficiently explored. We develop mathematical models to examine the interactions between host immune responses and the virus across three distinct infection routes (intravenous, intradermal, and intrarectal). The models are calibrated using viral load data from macaques infected through each of these three infection routes. Subsequently, we calculate the infectiousness of each infected macaque, finding that the proportion of presymptomatic infectiousness is highest in those infected via sexual contact, followed by skin-to-skin contact. These observations demonstrate that close contact during sexual activity is a significant route of viral transmission, with presymptomatic spread playing a crucial role in the 2022-2023 multi-country outbreak and potentially also in the 2023-2024 multi-source outbreak. Leveraging model predictions and infectiousness data, we assess the impact of antiviral drugs on interventions against mpox infection. Model simulations suggest that early administration of antiviral drugs can reduce peak viral loads, even in individuals with compromised immunity, particularly in cases of infection through skin-to-skin and sexual contact. These results underscore the importance of initiating antiviral treatment as early as possible for mpox-infected patients with compromised immune systems, such as those who are HIV-positive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Deng
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Wenjing Zhang
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States of America
| | - Ali Asgary
- Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jude Dzevela Kong
- Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modelling Lab, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sarah Flicker
- Department Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nicholas H. Ogden
- National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - James Orbinski
- The Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Jianhong Wu
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Liu Y, Wang Y, Jiang D. Dynamic behaviors of a stochastic virus infection model with Beddington-DeAngelis incidence function, eclipse-stage and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Math Biosci 2024; 369:109154. [PMID: 38295988 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Revised: 01/13/2024] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 02/05/2024]
Abstract
In this paper, we present a virus infection model that incorporates eclipse-stage and Beddington-DeAngelis function, along with perturbation in infection rate using logarithmic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Rigorous analysis demonstrates that the stochastic model has a unique global solution. Through construction of appropriate Lyapunov functions and a compact set, combined with the strong law of numbers and Fatou's lemma, we obtain the existence of the stationary distribution under a critical condition, which indicates the long-term persistence of T-cells and virions. Moreover, a precise probability density function is derived around the quasi-equilibrium of the model, and spectral radius analysis is employed to identify critical condition for elimination of the virus. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to validate theoretical results, and the impact of some key parameters such as the speed of reversion, volatility intensity and mean infection rate are investigated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuncong Liu
- College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China.
| | - Yan Wang
- College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China.
| | - Daqing Jiang
- College of Science, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China.
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