Analysis of synoptic weather patterns of heatwave events

Heatwave events and concurrent ozone concentrations between 2006 and 2022 at two sites in southern and northern Spain

Hotter-than-usual days are becoming more common, such that heat waves are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, duration, and spatial extent in Spain. Within this framework, this paper looks at the combined effects of extreme temperatures and air pollution in two cities in Spain, Córdoba and Valladolid, over the period 2006-2022. Synoptic patterns and air mass movement were analysed during the eleven coincident heat waves at both locations in order to study what impact orography and local meteorology have on ozone concentrations. Weak flow conditions were the most frequent synoptic pattern in the Iberian Peninsula during heat waves. Moreover, west and local circulations characterised the main air trajectories at low levels (500 m agl), while southwest maritime advections and African air mass transport were more frequent at higher levels (1500 and 3000 m agl) in Córdoba and Valladolid, respectively. On average, maximum ozone values were higher in Córdoba (105.1 µg m-3) than in Valladolid (80 µg m-3) and were strongly correlated with extreme temperatures at both locations (r up to 0.8, p-value < 0.05). Mean temperature in Córdoba was 31.9 °C, with the maximum value reaching 43.7 °C, while temperatures in Valladolid were lower (28.3 °C and 37.3 °C, respectively). Calculation and assessment of some indices helped to understand the impact of extreme events. Caution actions based on the Heat Index characterised heat wave periods. Moderate risk was the general Air Quality Health Index feature recorded and reached a very high risk of unhealthy air quality in the June 2022 event in Córdoba.

Coupling heat wave and wildfire occurrence across multiple ecoregions within a Eurasia longitudinal gradient

Understanding the relationship between heat wave occurrence and wildfire spread represents a key priority in global change studies due to the significant threats posed on natural ecosystems and society. Previous studies have not explored the spatial and temporal mechanism underlying the relationship between heat waves and wildfires occurrence, especially over large geographical regions. This study seeks to investigate such a relationship with a focus on 37 ecoregions within a Eurasia longitudinal gradient. The analysis is based on the wildfire dataset provided by the GlobFire Final Fire Event Detection and the meteorological dataset ERA5-land from Copernicus Climate service. In both cases we focused on the 2001-2019 timeframe. By means of a 12 km square grid, three wildfire metrics, i.e., density, seasonality, and severity of wildfires, were computed as proxy of fire regime. Heat waves were also characterized in terms of periods, duration, and intensity for the same period. Statistical tests were performed to evaluate the different patterns of heat wave and wildfire occurrence in the 37 ecoregions within the study area. By using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) we modeled the spatial varying relationships between heat wave characteristics and wildfire metrics. As expected, our results suggest that the 37 ecoregions identified within the Eurasia longitudinal gradient differ in terms of fire regimes. However, the occurrence of heat waves did not show significant differences among ecoregions, but a more evident variability in terms of relationship between fire regime metrics and heat waves within the study area. The outcome of the GWR analysis allowed us to identify the spatial locations (i.e., hotspot areas) where the relationship between heat waves and wildfires is positive and significant. Hence, in hotspots the presence of heat waves can be seen as a driver of wildfire occurrence in forest and steppe ecosystems. The findings from this study could contribute to a more comprehensive assessment of wildfire patterns in this geographical region, thus supporting cross-regional prevention strategies for disaster risk mitigation.