Nomogram predicting the cancer-specific survival of early-onset colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastasis: a population-based study

Early Onset Colorectal Cancer: Molecular Underpinnings Accelerating Occurrence

The onset of colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients younger than 50 continues to rapidly increase. This study highlights the epidemiologic changes, risk factors, clinical characteristics, and molecular profiles prevalent in early onset CRC patients, and identifies key areas for future research. It has been noted that only a small fraction of early onset CRC cases is attributed to known hereditary mutations and fit the canonical pathway of late-onset colorectal cancer development. To highlight this, we review the genetic and epigenetic modifications specific to early onset CRC. We also discuss the synergetic effect of single-nucleotide polymorphisms and environmental factors on the early onset of CRC. Additionally, we discuss the potential of noninvasive biomarker assays to enhance early detection, screening, diagnosis, and prognostic outcome predictions.

Obesity and early-onset colorectal cancer risk: emerging clinical evidence and biological mechanisms

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is defined as diagnosed at younger than 50 years of age and indicates a health burden globally. Patients with EOCRC have distinct risk factors, clinical characteristics, and molecular pathogenesis compared with older patients with CRC. Further investigations have identified different roles of obesity between EOCRC and late-onset colorectal cancer (LOCRC). Most studies have focused on the clinical characteristics of obesity in EOCRC, therefore, the mechanism involved in the association between obesity and EOCRC remains inconclusive. This review further states that obesity affects the carcinogenesis of EOCRC as well as its development and progression, which may lead to obesity-related metabolic syndrome, intestinal dysbacteriosis, and intestinal inflammation.

The histological and molecular characteristics of early-onset colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC), defined as diagnosis before age 50, has increased in recent decades. Although more often diagnosed at advanced stage, associations with other histological and molecular markers that impact prognosis and treatment remain to be clarified. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis concerning the prevalence of prognostic and predictive tumor markers for early- vs. late-onset CRC, including oncogene mutations, microsatellite instability (MSI), and emerging markers including immune cells and the consensus molecular subtypes.

Methods

We systematically searched PubMed for original research articles published between April 2013-January 2024. Included studies compared the prevalence of tumor markers in early- vs. late-onset CRC. A meta-analysis was completed and summary odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from a random effects model via inverse variance weighting. A sensitivity analysis was completed to restrict the meta-analysis to studies that excluded individuals with Lynch syndrome, a hereditary condition that influences the distribution of tumor markers for early-onset CRC.

Results

In total, 149 articles were identified. Tumors from early-onset CRC are less likely to include mutations in KRAS (OR, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.85-0.98), BRAF (0.63, 0.51-0.78), APC (0.70, 0.58-0.84), and NRAS (0.88, 0.78-1.00) but more likely to include mutations in PTEN (1.68, 1.04-2.73) and TP53 (1.34, 1.24-1.45). After limiting to studies that excluded Lynch syndrome, the associations between early-onset CRC and BRAF (0.77, 0.64-0.92) and APC mutation (0.81, 0.67-0.97) were attenuated, while an inverse association with PIK3CA mutation was also observed (0.88, 0.78-0.99). Early-onset tumors are less likely to develop along the CpG Island Methylator Phenotype pathway (0.24, 0.10-0.57), but more likely to possess adverse histological features including high tumor grade (1.20, 1.15-1.25), and mucinous (1.22, 1.16-1.27) or signet ring histology (2.32, 2.08-2.57). A positive association with MSI status (1.31, 1.11-1.56) was also identified. Associations with immune markers and the consensus molecular subtypes are inconsistent.

Discussion

A lower prevalence of mutations in KRAS and BRAF is consistent with extended survival and superior response to targeted therapies for metastatic disease. Conversely, early-onset CRC is associated with aggressive histological subtypes and TP53 and PTEN mutations, which may serve as therapeutic targets.

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of patients with stage III/IV early-onset colorectal cancer

Purpose

This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in stage III/IV early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC).

Methods

Stage III/IV EO-CRC patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The datasets were randomly divided (2:1) into training and validation sets. A nomogram predicting OS was developed based on the prognostic factors identified by Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. Moreover, the predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Subsequently, the internal validation was performed using the validation cohort. Finally, a risk stratification system was established based on the constructed nomogram.

Results

Of the 10,387 patients diagnosed with stage III/IV EO-CRC between 2010 and 2015 in the SEER database, 8,130 patients were included. In the training cohort (n=3,071), sex, marital status, race/ethnicity, primary site, histologic subtypes, grade, T stage, and N stage were identified as independent prognostic variables for OS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of the nomogram were robust in both the training (0.751, 0.739, and 0.723) and validation cohorts (0.748, 0.733, and 0.720). ROC, calibration plots, and DCA indicated good predictive performance of the nomogram in both the training and validation sets. Furthermore, patients were categorized into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups based on the nomogram risk score. Kaplan-Meier curve showed significant survival differences between the three groups.

Conclusion

We developed a prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system for stage III/IV EO-CRC, which may facilitate clinical decision-making and individual prognosis prediction.

Survival outcome and prognostic factors for early-onset and late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer: a population based study from SEER database

Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide and there has been a concerning increase in the incidence rate of colorectal cancer among individuals under the age of 50. This study compared the survival outcome between early-onset and late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer to find the differences and identify their prognostic factors. We obtained patient data from SEER database. Survival outcome was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted utilizing COX models to identify their independent prognostic factors. A total of 10,036 early-onset metastatic colorectal (EOCRC) cancer patients and 56,225 late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer (LOCRC) patients between 2010 and 2019 were included in this study. EOCRC has more survival benefits than LOCRC. Tumor primary location (p < 0.001), the location of metastasis (p < 0.001) and treatment modalities (p < 0.001) affect the survival outcomes between these two groups of patients. Female patients had better survival outcomes in EOCRC group (p < 0.001), but no difference was found in LOCRC group (p = 0.57). In conclusion, our study demonstrated that EOCRC patients have longer survival time than LOCRC patients. The sex differences in survival of metastatic colorectal cancer patients are associated with patients' age. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the differences between metastatic EOCRC and LOCRC, and can help inform the development of more precise treatment guidelines to improve prognosis.

Prediction of liver and lung metastases in patients with early-onset colorectal cancer by nomograms based on heterogeneous and homogenous risk factors

BACKGROUND

Identifying the risk factors for distant metastasis in early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is crucial for elucidating its etiology and facilitating preventive treatment. This study aims to characterize the variability in EOCRC incidence and discern both heterogeneous and homogeneous risk factors associated with synchronous liver, lung, and hepato-lung metastases.

METHODS

This study included patients with EOCRC enrolled in the SEER database between 2010 and 2015 and divided patients into three groups by synchronous liver, lung, and hepato-lung metastases. Each group of patients with different metastasis types was randomly assigned to the development and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. Logistic regression was used to analyze the heterogeneous and homogenous risk factors for synchronous liver, lung, and hepato-lung metastases in the development cohort of patients. Nomograms were built to calculate the risk of metastasis, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to quantitatively evaluate their performance.

RESULTS

A total of 16,336 eligible patients with EOCRC were included in this study, of which 17.90% (2924/16,336) had distant metastases. The overall incidences of synchronous liver, lung, and hepato-lung metastases were 11.90% (1921/16,146), 2.42% (390/16,126), and 1.50% (241/16,108), respectively. Positive CEA values before treatment, increased lymphatic metastases, and deeper invasion of intestinal wall were positively correlated with three distant types of metastases. On the contrary, the correlation of age, ethnicity, location of primary tumor, and histologic grade among the three types was inconsistent. The ROC curve and calibration curve proved to have fine performance in predicting distant metastases of EOCRC.

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant differences in the incidence of distant metastases in EOCRC, and related risk factors are heterogeneous and homogenous. Although limited risk factors were incorporated in this study, the established nomograms indicated good predictive performance.

Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation

Background

The morbidity and mortality of young-onset colorectal cancer (YO-CRC) patients have been increasing in recent years. Moreover, YO-CRC patients with synchronous liver-only metastases (YO-CRCSLM) have various survival outcomes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with YO-CRCSLM.

Methods

The YO-CRCSLM patients were rigorously screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in January 2010 and December 2018 and then assigned to a training and validation cohort randomly (1488 and 639 patients, respectively). Moreover, the 122 YO-CRCSLM patients who were enrolled in The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were served as a testing cohort. The variables were selected using the multivariable Cox model based on the training cohort and then developed a nomogram. The validation and testing cohort were used to validate the model's predictive accuracy. The calibration plots were used to determine the Nomogram's discriminative capabilities and precision, and the decision analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the Nomogram's net benefit. Finally, the Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed for the stratified patients based on total nomogram scores classified by the X-tile software.

Results

The Nomogram was constructed including ten variables: marital status, primary site, grade, metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR), T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Surgery, and chemotherapy. The Nomogram performed admirably in the validation and testing group according to the calibration curves. The DCA analyses showed good clinical utility values. Low-risk patients (score<234) had significantly better survival outcomes than middle-risk (234-318) and high-risk (>318) patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

A nomogram predicting the survival outcomes for patients with YO-CRCSLM was developed. In addition to facilitating personalized survival prediction, this nomogram may assist in developing clinical treatment strategies for patients with YO-CRCSLM who are undergoing treatment.

A nomogram prediction model for lymph node metastasis risk after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer patients based on SEER database

Background

Rectal cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) may have a lower cancer stage and a better prognosis. Some patients may be able to avoid invasive surgery. It is critical to accurately assess lymph node metastases (LNM) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The goal of this study is to identify clinical variables associated with LNM and to develop a nomogram for LNM prediction in rectal cancer patients following nCRT.

Methods

From 2010 to 2015, patients were drawn from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. To identify clinical factors associated with LNM, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) aggression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used. To predict the likelihood of LNM, a nomogram based on multivariate logistic regression was created using decision curve analyses.

Reslut

The total number of patients included in this study was 6,388. The proportion of patients with pCR was 17.50% (n=1118), and the proportion of patients with primary tumor pCR was 20.84% (n = 1,331). The primary tumor was pCR in 16.00% (n=213) of the patients. Age, clinical T stage, clinical N stage, and histology were found to be significant independent clinical predictors of LNM using LASSO and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The nomogram was developed based on four clinical factors. The 5-year overall survival rate was 78.9 percent for those with ypN- and 66.3 percent for those with ypN+, respectively (P<0.001).

Conclusion

Patients over 60 years old, with clinical T1-2, clinical N0, and adenocarcinoma may be more likely to achieve ypN0. The watch-and-wait (WW) strategy may be considered. Patients who had ypN0 or pCR had a better prognosis.