Optimal levothyroxine dose in post-total thyroidectomy patients: a prediction model for initial dose titration

Model-Informed Precision Dosing Using Machine Learning for Levothyroxine in General Practice: Development, Validation and Clinical Simulation Trial

Levothyroxine is one of the most prescribed drugs in the western world. Dosing is challenging due to high-interindividual differences in effective dosage and the narrow therapeutic window. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) using machine learning could assist general practitioners (GPs), but no such models exist for primary care. Furthermore, introduction of decision-support algorithms in healthcare is limited due to the substantial gap between developers and clinicians' perspectives. We report the development, validation, and a clinical simulation trial of the first MIPD application for primary care. Stable maintenance dosage of levothyroxine was the model target. The multiclass model generates predictions for individual patients, for different dosing classes. Random forest was trained and tested on a national primary care database (n = 19,004) with a final weighted AUC across dosing options of 0.71, even in subclinical hypothyroidism. TSH, fT4, weight, and age were most predictive. To assess the safety, feasibility, and clinical impact of MIPD for levothyroxine, we performed clinical simulation studies in GPs and compared MIPD to traditional prescription. Fifty-one GPs selected starting dosages for 20 primary hypothyroidism cases without and then with MIPD 2 weeks later. Overdosage and underdosage were defined as higher and lower than 12.5 μg relative to stable maintenance dosage. MIPD decreased overdosage in number (30.5 to 23.9%, P < 0.01) and magnitude (median 50 to 37.5 μg, P < 0.01) and increased optimal starting dosages (18.3 to 30.2%, P < 0.01). GPs considered lab results more often with MIPD and most would use the model frequently. This study demonstrates the clinical relevance, safety, and effectiveness of MIPD for levothyroxine in primary care.

A predictive model for L-T4 dose in postoperative DTC after RAI therapy and its clinical validation in two institutions

Purpose

To develop a predictive model using machine learning for levothyroxine (L-T4) dose selection in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) after resection and radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy and to prospectively validate the accuracy of the model in two institutions.

Methods

A total of 266 DTC patients who received RAI therapy after thyroidectomy and achieved target thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level were included in this retrospective study. Sixteen clinical and biochemical characteristics that could potentially influence the L-T4 dose were collected; Significant features correlated with L-T4 dose were selected using machine learning random forest method, and a total of eight regression models were established to assess their performance in prediction of L-T4 dose after RAI therapy; The optimal model was validated through a two-center prospective study (n=263).

Results

Six significant clinical and biochemical features were selected, including body surface area (BSA), weight, hemoglobin (HB), height, body mass index (BMI), and age. Cross-validation showed that the support vector regression (SVR) model was with the highest accuracy (53.4%) for prediction of L-T4 dose among the established eight models. In the two-center prospective validation study, a total of 263 patients were included. The TSH targeting rate based on constructed SVR model were dramatically higher than that based on empirical administration (Rate 1 (first rate): 52.09% (137/263) vs 10.53% (28/266); Rate 2 (cumulative rate): 85.55% (225/263) vs 53.38% (142/266)). Furthermore, the model significantly shortens the time (days) to achieve target TSH level (62.61 ± 58.78 vs 115.50 ± 71.40).

Conclusions

The constructed SVR model can effectively predict the L-T4 dose for postoperative DTC after RAI therapy, thus shortening the time to achieve TSH target level and improving the quality of life for DTC patients.

Adequate Dose of Levothyroxine for Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone Suppression after Total Thyroidectomy in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

BACKGRUOUND

The adequate dose of levothyroxine (LT4) for patients who have undergone total thyroidectomy (TT) for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is uncertain. We evaluated the LT4 dose required to achieve mild thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) suppression in DTC patients after TT.

METHODS

The electronic medical records of patients who underwent TT for DTC and received mild TSH suppression therapy were reviewed. Linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between LT4 dose (μg/kg) and an ordinal group divided by body mass index (BMI). We also evaluated the trend in LT4 doses among groups divided by BMI and age.

RESULTS

In total, 123 patients achieved mild TSH suppression (0.1 to 0.5 mIU/L). The BMI variable was divided into three categories: <23 kg/m2 (n=46), ≥23 and <25 kg/m2 (n=30), and ≥25 kg/m2 (n=47). In the linear regression analysis, BMI was negatively associated with the LT4 dose after adjusting for age and sex (P<0.001). The LT4 doses required to achieve mild TSH suppression based on the BMI categories were 1.86, 1.71, and 1.71 μg/kg, respectively (P for trend <0.001). Further analysis with groups divided by age and BMI revealed that a higher BMI was related to a lower LT4 dose, especially in younger patients aged 20 to 39 (P for trend=0.011).

CONCLUSION

The study results suggest an appropriate LT4 dose for mild TSH suppression after TT based on body weight in patients with DTC. Considering body weight, BMI, and age in estimating LT4 doses might help to achieve the target TSH level promptly.

Optimizing Thyroxine Dosage After Total Thyroidectomy: Understanding the Factors at Play

INTRODUCTION

Total thyroidectomy is evolving as the choice of treatment for non-malignant thyroid conditions. Therefore, an ideal method of thyroxine replacement is necessary to avoid the ill effects of under- and over-replacement in such patients.

AIM

To assess the correlation between optimal thyroxine dose and potential variables like lean body mass (LBM), body surface area (BSA), body mass index (BMI), body weight, age, and sex in patients who underwent total thyroidectomies for benign multinodular goiters in our institute.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A longitudinal cohort study was undertaken at the Government Medical College Thrissur, a tertiary care provider in India, between October 2018 and September 2019. One hundred adult patients who underwent a total thyroidectomy for various benign thyroid conditions were included. They were initially given thyroxine 75 µg upon discharge and received follow-up doses every two months until they achieved euthyroid status on two consecutive visits. The variables evaluated at this stage included age, sex, actual body weight, lean body weight, BMI, and biochemical data (triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)). Correlation, multiple step-wise regression, and variance were carried out using EPI INFO version 7.2.2.6.

RESULTS

The best predictors for optimum thyroxine dose were BSA (0.923, P < 0.01) and LBM (0.921, P < 0.01), compared with body weight (0.833, P < 0.01) and BMI (0.523, P < 0.01). In our study, the least significant factor was the age of the patient (r = 0.117, P < 0.01). There was no significant association between gender and thyroxine dose. The mean thyroxine dose was 1.87 µg/kg of the patient's body weight.

CONCLUSION

The optimum thyroxine replacement based on BSA or LBM is a more ideal method than based on BMI or body weight alone.

Prognostic value of preoperative thyroid autoantibodies for post-thyroidectomy patient pathology: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical value of preoperative thyroid autoantibodies with reference to the post-thyroidectomy patient pathology.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Two tertiary care academic hospitals.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of (n = 473) subjects who underwent thyroidectomy from 2009 to 2019 were included. Preoperative serum thyroid autoantibodies (anti-thyroglobulin [anti-Tg] and anti-thyroperoxidase [anti-TPO]) were measured, and the potential predictors of postoperative pathological diagnosis (age, gender, and thyroid autoantibodies) were assessed using multivariable regression models.

RESULTS

Patients with positive thyroid autoantibodies were more likely to have malignant disease than benign disease; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.6 (1.3-2.7, p = 0.002) for anti-Tg, and AOR = 1.6 (1.1-2.5, p = 0.027) for anti-TPO. A subset analysis of the same predictors performed on patients with cancer (malignant vs. microcarcinoma) showed that patients with ages ≥40 were more likely to develop microcarcinoma as opposed to malignant disease; AOR = 1.8 (1.1-3.1, p = 0.03) for anti-TPO, and AOR = 1.7 (1.0-2.9, p = 0.04) for anti-Tg.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative thyroid autoantibodies could be used clinically to predict the risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules, thus helping guide treatment decisions in patients with thyroid nodules and speeding up the decision to undergo surgical intervention.

In silico dose adjustment of levothyroxine after total thyroidectomy using fuzzy logic methodology: A proof-of-concept study

Thyroid hormone replacement therapy is used to raise undesirably low concentrations of natural thyroid hormones, commonly by administrating levothyroxine (LT4). Finding the appropriate LT4 dose regime, particularly for patients undergone thyroidectomy, is still demanding more effort, and much research has been conducted. Providing a new fuzzy logic system, a useful control algorithm, we aim to introduce a proper LT4 dosing regimen for every thyroidectomized patient in a computerized environment. Consequently, we contrast the differences between our proposed dose regime and conventional monotherapy methods using THYROSIM, a thyroid simulation application. Considering our nine defined comparative criteria, results reveal that the FLS dose regime is dominant in terms of six indexes, while the discrepancies are not noticeable in the other three indexes. A great superiority of FLS dose regime is its ability to reduce the time to reach desirable thyrotropin (Thyroid Stimulating Hormone, TSH) serum concentration to 6 days post-thyroidectomy, and keep the T4, T3, and TSH values in the normal window afterward. The proposed FLS could be an applicable decision support system for physicians as they can define their intended Individual Target Value of TSH for each patient to optimize LT4 dose adjustment.

Appropriate dose of levothyroxine replacement therapy for hypothyroid obese patients

Background

Athyreotic patients require a daily levothyroxine (LT4) doses of 1.6-1.8 mcg/kg of actual body weight (BW) to achieve normal thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels. Lean body mass (LBM) calculation may be a more accurate determination of LT4 dose in obese patients. Previous studies were mainly investigated in Caucasians and LBM is markedly different between various ethnic groups. We aim to identify the optimal dose of LT4 replacement therapy in hypothyroid Thai patients including obese subjects.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of Thai adults with hypothyroidism at the thyroid clinic. Patients had been received LT4 (Brand: Euthyrox) at a stable dose ≥ 75 mcg/day for at least 1 year. Patients with thyroid cancer, pregnant, and lactating women were excluded. LBM was calculated by the Hume formula.

Results

Two hundred patients (80% females) with a mean age of 48.6 ± 14.8 years and a body mass index (BMI) of 24.5 ± 4.6 kg/m² were included. Daily LT4 dose/kg of actual BW according to BMI 18.5-24.9, 25-29.9, and ≥ 30 kg/m² were 1.67 ± 0.27, 1.51 ± 0.28 and 1.39 ± 0.34 mcg/kg, respectively. In contrast, LT4 dose/kg of LBM were 2.31 ± 0.39, 2.35 ± 0.45 and 2.36 ± 0.51 mcg/kg, respectively.

Conclusions

LBM is considered a better indicator for calculating an appropriate LT4 replacement dose than actual BW in hypothyroid obese Thai patients. The recommended daily dose of LT4 is 2.3 mcg/kg of LBM that could be applied for all ranges of BMI.

Weight and Body Mass Index for Predicting Thyroxine Dose in Primary Hypothyroidism

Background

The treatment of primary hypothyroidism with thyroxine is weight-based or body mass index (BMI)-based. However, significant variation in the dose and the consequent delay in achieving euthyroid state is observed along the spectrum of patient body weights.

Objectives

To determine the weight and BMI-based dosing of thyroxine in primary hypothyroidism to achieve euthyroidism.

Material and methods

It was a retrospective review of the patient records conducted in the department of endocrinology, Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, from July 1, 2014, to June 30, 2019 (five-year period). Patients with clinical and biochemical hypothyroidism were enrolled and initiated on thyroxine replacement to achieve euthyroid status. A total of 504 patients were included in the study.

Results

The mean age was 44.5 ±13.6 standard deviation. Females were 83.5%. The mean dose of thyroxine to achieve euthyroid status was 107.7 ± 39.3 mean standard deviation mcg/day, i.e. 1.4 (0.5) mcg/kg/day. Euthyroid status was achieved in 264 (52.4%) of patients at three months. The mean TSH level after treatment was 2.09 (1.2) mU/L. The linear regression model showed that BMI and weight are independent predictors of the required thyroxine dose (R and Rsquare values are .274 and 0.075 for BMI and .319 and .102 for weight, respectively (P-value <.0001). There was no impact of age, gender, height, and duration of disease on achieving euthyroid at six months after treatment (P values: .85, .394, .827, and .105, respectively).

Conclusion

The optimum dose in primary hyperthyroidism can be determined with body weight and BMI-based calculations.

Levothyroxine Therapy in Thyrodectomized Patients

Administration of the optimal dose of levothyroxine (LT4) is crucial to restore euthyroidism after total thyroidectomy. An insufficient or excessive dosage may result in hypothyroidism or thyrotoxicosis, either one associated with a number of symptoms/complications. Most literature regarding the LT4 dosage deals with the treatment of primary hypothyroidism, whereas a limited number of studies handle the issue of thyroxin replacement after total thyroidectomy. A literature review was performed focusing on all papers dealing with this topic within the last 15 years. Papers that reported a scheme to calculate the proper LT4 dose were collected and compared to set up a review exploring limits and drawbacks of LT4 replacement therapy in the wide population of patients who had undergone thyroidectomy. Most of the methods for monitoring and adjusting thyroid hormone replacement after thyroidectomy for benign disease use LT4 at an empirical dose of approximately 1.6 μg/kg, with subsequent changes according to thyroid function test results and assessments of the patient's symptoms. Approximately 75% of patients require a dose adjustment, suggesting that factors other than body weight play a role in the determination of the proper LT4 dose. Hence, several schemes are reported in the literature for the proper initial dose of LT4. An inadequate level of thyroid hormone levels in these patients can be due to several factors. The most common ones that lead to the necessity of LT4 dose adjustments include lack of compliance, changes in LT4 formulation, dosage errors, increased serum levels of T4-binding globulin, body mass changes, and dietary habits. Moreover, concomitant ingestion of calcium supplements, ferrous sulfate, proton-pump inhibitors, bile acid sequestrants, and sucralfate might influence LT4 absorption and/or metabolism. Furthermore, some gastrointestinal conditions and their treatments can contribute to suboptimal LT4 performance by altering gastric acidity and thereby reducing its bioavailability, particularly in the solid form. Beyond the classic tablet form, new formulations of LT4, such as a soft gel capsule and an oral solution, recently became available. The liquid formulation is supposed to overcome the food and beverages interference with absorption of LT4 tablets.