Overestimation of Chernobyl consequences: biophysical aspects

Depleted uranium instead of lead in munitions: the lesser evil

Uranium has many similarities to lead in its exposure mechanisms, metabolism and target organs. However, lead is more toxic, which is reflected in the threshold limit values. The main potential hazard associated with depleted uranium is inhalation of the aerosols created when a projectile hits an armoured target. A person can be exposed to lead in similar ways. Accidental dangerous exposures can result from contact with both substances. Encountering uranium fragments is of minor significance because of the low penetration depth of alpha particles emitted by uranium: they are unable to penetrate even the superficial keratin layer of human skin. An additional cancer risk attributable to the uranium exposure might be significant only in case of prolonged contact of the contaminant with susceptible tissues. Lead intoxication can be observed in the wounded, in workers manufacturing munitions etc; moreover, lead has been documented to have a negative impact on the intellectual function of children at very low blood concentrations. It is concluded on the basis of the literature overview that replacement of lead by depleted uranium in munitions would be environmentally beneficial or largely insignificant because both lead and uranium are present in the environment.

Debate on the Chernobyl disaster: response to Dr. Sergei V. Jargin

The author responds, point by point, to Dr. Jargin's critique in this Journal issue of A. V. Yablokov, V. B. Nesterenko, and A. B. Nesterenko, Chernobyl: consequences of the catastrophe for people and the environment, published in 2009 by the New York Academy of Sciences.

Hormesis and radiation safety norms

Today's radiation safety norms are based on the linear no-threshold theory (LNT): extrapolation of the dose-response relationships down to the minimal doses, where such relationships are unproven and can be inverse due to hormesis. The most promising way to obtaining reliable data on the dose-effect relationships for low radiation doses would be large-scale animal experiments. Outstanding published data on carcinogenic effects of the doses e.g. below 100 mSv should be verified by experiments. Arguments against applicability of the LNT to the doses comparable to those from the natural radiation background are discussed. Furthermore it is stressed that medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident have been overestimated; and this theme has been exploited to strangle development of atomic energy and to elevate prices for fossil fuels. Worldwide introduction of nuclear energy will be possible only after a concentration of authority within a powerful international executive. It would enable the construction of nuclear reactors in optimally suitable places, considering all sociopolitical, geographical, and geological conditions, which would contribute to the prevention of accidents like in Japan in 2011. A concluding point is that radiation safety norms are exceedingly restrictive and should be revised to become more realistic and workable. Elevation of the limits must be accompanied by measures guaranteeing their strict observance. It is also concluded that there are no evidence-based contraindications to fivefold elevation of the total equivalent effective doses to individual members of the public (up to 5 mSv/year), and doubling of the limits for professional exposures.

Debate on the Chernobyl Disaster: On the Causes of Chernobyl Overestimation

The Journal is pleased to publish an exchange of articles on the nuclear catastrophe at Chernobyl that has special importance in the light of the Fukushima situation in Japan.

After the Chernobyl accident, many publications appeared that overestimated its medical consequences. Some of them are discussed in this article. Among the motives for the overestimation were anti-nuclear sentiments, widespread among some adherents of the Green movement; however, their attitude has not been wrong: nuclear facilities should have been prevented from spreading to overpopulated countries governed by unstable regimes and regions where conflicts and terrorism cannot be excluded. The Chernobyl accident has hindered worldwide development of atomic industry. Today, there are no alternatives to nuclear power: nonrenewable fossil fuels will become more and more expensive, contributing to affluence in the oil-producing countries and poverty in the rest of the world. Worldwide introduction of nuclear energy will become possible only after a concentration of authority within an efficient international executive. This will enable construction of nuclear power plants in optimally suitable places, considering all sociopolitical, geographic, geologic, and other preconditions. In this way, accidents such as that in Japan in 2011 will be prevented.

On the RET Rearrangements in Chernobyl-Related Thyroid Cancer

There is a consensus that Chernobyl accident has induced thyroid cancer increase in children and adolescents. The UNSCEAR report concluded that no somatic disorders other than thyroid cancer were caused by radiation exposure due to the accident except for acute radiation sickness occurred to the people within the Power Plant at the time of the accident. A hypothesis is discussed in this paper that the increase of thyroid cancer was caused predominantly by the screening, overdiagnosis, and registration of nonirradiated persons as Chernobyl victims. A mechanism of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis is described that can be active even today, causing hypertherapy. Older neglected tumors found by the screening shortly after the Chernobyl accident or brought from noncontaminated areas were misclassified as aggressive radiation-induced cancers. Therefore, supposed markers of the radiation-induced thyroid cancer, such as the RET rearrangements, are probably associated with disease duration and tumor progression. The screening effect is obviously dependent on the basis level of medical surveillance: the higher the level, the smaller the screening effect. Absence of any significant increase of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima accident in spite of the vigorous screening would certify the high level of health care in Japan especially for children.

Validity of thyroid cancer incidence data following the Chernobyl accident

The only clearly demonstrated cancer incidence increase that can be attributed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident is thyroid carcinoma in patients exposed during childhood or adolescence. Significant increases in thyroid disease were observed as soon as 4 y after the accident. The solid/follicular subtype of papillary carcinoma predominated in the early period after the accident. Morphological diagnosis of cancer in such cases, if no infiltrative growth is clearly visible, depends mainly on the nuclear criteria. Outdated equipment and insufficient quality of histological specimens impeded reliable evaluation of the nuclear criteria. Access to foreign professional literature has always been limited in the former Soviet Union. The great number of advanced tumors observed shortly after the accident can be explained by the screening effect (detection of previously neglected cancers) and by the fact that many patients were brought from non-contaminated areas and registered as Chernobyl victims. It is also worth noting that exaggeration of the Chernobyl cancer statistics facilitated the writing of dissertations, financing of research, and assistance from outside the former Soviet Union. "Chernobyl hysteria" impeded nuclear energy production in some countries, thus contributing to higher prices for fossil fuel. The concluding point is that since post-Chernobyl cancers tend on average to be in a later stage of tumor progression, some published data on molecular or immunohistochemical characteristics of Chernobyl-related cancers require reevaluation.