Methodological improvements to meta-analysis of low dose rate studies and derivation of dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors

Projected Lifetime Cancer Risks From Current Computed Tomography Imaging

Importance

Approximately 93 million computed tomography (CT) examinations are performed on 62 million patients annually in the United States, and ionizing radiation from CT is a known carcinogen.

Objective

To project the number of future lifetime cancers in the US population associated with CT imaging in 2023.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This risk model used a multicenter sample of CT examinations prospectively assembled between January 2018 and December 2020 from the University of California San Francisco International CT Dose Registry. Data analysis was conducted from October 2023 to October 2024.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Distributions of CT examinations and associated organ-specific radiation doses were estimated by patient age, sex, and CT category and scaled to the US population based on the number of examinations in 2023, quantified by the IMV national survey. Lifetime radiation-induced cancer incidence and 90% uncertainty limits (UL) were estimated by age, sex, and CT category using National Cancer Institute software based on the National Research Council's Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII models and projected to the US population using scaled examination counts.

Results

An estimated 61 510 000 patients underwent 93 000 000 CT examinations in 2023, including 2 570 000 (4.2%) children, 58 940 000 (95.8%) adults, 32 600 000 (53.0%) female patients, and 28 910 000 (47.0%) male patients. Approximately 103 000 (90% UL, 96 400-109 500) radiation-induced cancers were projected to result from these examinations. Estimated radiation-induced cancer risks were higher in children and adolescents, yet higher CT utilization in adults accounted for most (93 000; 90% UL, 86 900-99 600 [91%]) radiation-induced cancers. The most common cancers were lung cancer (22 400 cases; 90% UL, 20 200-25 000 cases), colon cancer (8700 cases; 90% UL, 7800-9700 cases), leukemia (7900 cases; 90% UL, 6700-9500 cases), and bladder cancer (7100 cases, 90% UL, 6000-8500 cases) overall, while in female patients, breast was second most common (5700 cases; 90% UL, 5000-6500 cases). The largest number of cancers was projected to result from abdomen and pelvis CT in adults, reflecting 37 500 of 103 000 cancers (37%) and 30 million of 93 million CT examinations (32%), followed by chest CT (21 500 cancers [21%]; 20 million examinations [21%]). Estimates remained large over a variety of sensitivity analyses, which resulted in a range of 80 000 to 127 000 projected cancers across analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that at current utilization and radiation dose levels, CT examinations in 2023 were projected to result in approximately 103 000 future cancers over the course of the lifetime of exposed patients. If current practices persist, CT-associated cancer could eventually account for 5% of all new cancer diagnoses annually.

Low-Dose Extrapolation Factors Implied by Mortality and Incidence Data from the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivor Life Span Study Data

Assessment of the effect of low dose and low-dose-rate exposure depends critically on extrapolation from groups exposed at high dose and high-dose rates such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivor data, and has often been achieved via application of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). An important component of DDREF is the factor determining the effect of extrapolation of dose, the so-called low-dose extrapolation factor (LDEF). To assess LDEF models linear (or linear quadratic) in dose are often fitted. In this report LDEF is assessed via fitting relative rate models that are linear or linear quadratic in dose to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor data on solid cancer, leukemia and circulatory disease mortality (followed from 1950 through 2003) and to data on solid cancer, lung cancer and urinary tract cancer incidence. The uncertainties in LDEF are assessed using parametric bootstrap techniques. Analysis is restricted to survivors with <3 Gy dose. There is modest evidence for upward curvature in dose response in the mortality data. For leukemia and for all solid cancer excluding lung, stomach and breast cancer there is significant curvature (P < 0.05). There is no evidence of curvature for circulatory disease (P > 0.5). The estimate of LDEF for all solid cancer mortality is 1.273 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.913, 2.182], for all solid cancer mortality excluding lung cancer, stomach cancer and breast cancer is 2.183 (95% CI 1.090, >100) and for leukemia mortality is 11.447 (95% CI 2.390, >100). For stomach cancer mortality LDEF is modestly raised, 1.077 (95% CI 0.526, >100), while for lung cancer, female breast cancer and circulatory disease mortality the LDEF does not much exceed 1. LDEF for solid cancer incidence is 1.186 (95% CI 0.942, 1.626) and for urinary tract cancer is 1.298 (95% CI <0, 7.723), although for lung cancer LDEF is not elevated, 0.842 (95% CI 0.344, >100).

Review of the risk of cancer following low and moderate doses of sparsely ionising radiation received in early life in groups with individually estimated doses

BACKGROUND

The detrimental health effects associated with the receipt of moderate (0.1-1 Gy) and high (>1 Gy) acute doses of sparsely ionising radiation are well established from human epidemiological studies. There is accumulating direct evidence of excess risk of cancer in a number of populations exposed at lower acute doses or doses received over a protracted period. There is evidence that relative risks are generally higher after radiation exposures in utero or in childhood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We reviewed and summarised evidence from 60 studies of cancer or benign neoplasms following low- or moderate-level exposure in utero or in childhood from medical and environmental sources. In most of the populations studied the exposure was predominantly to sparsely ionising radiation, such as X-rays and gamma-rays. There were significant (p < 0.001) excess risks for all cancers, and particularly large excess relative risks were observed for brain/CNS tumours, thyroid cancer (including nodules) and leukaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the totality of this large body of data relating to in utero and childhood exposure provides support for the existence of excess cancer and benign neoplasm risk associated with radiation doses < 0.1 Gy, and for certain groups exposed to natural background radiation, to fallout and medical X-rays in utero, at about 0.02 Gy.

Comparative analysis of physical doses and biomarker changes in subjects underwent Computed Tomography, Positron Emission Tomography-Computed Tomography, and interventional procedures

Even though the medical uses of ionizing radiation are well-acknowledged globally as vital tools for the improvement of human health, they also symbolize the major man-made sources of radiation exposure to the population. Estimation of absorbed dose and biological changes after radiation-based imaging might help to better understand the effects of low dose radiation. Because of this, we measured the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) at different anatomical locations using Lithium tetraborate doped with manganese (Li2B4O7: Mn), recorded Dose Length Product (DLP) and Dose Area Product (DAP), analyzed Chromosomal Aberration (CA), Micronucleus (MN), gamma-H2AX (γ-H2AX), and p53ser15 proteins in the blood lymphocytes of patients (n = 267) underwent Computed Tomography (CT), Positron Emission Tomography-CT (PET/CT), and interventional procedures and healthy volunteers (n = 19). The DLP and effective doses obtained from PET/CT procedures were significantly higher (p < 0.05) when compared to CT. Fluoroscopic time and DAP were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in therapeutic compared to diagnostic interventional procedures. All the anatomical locations registered a significant amount of ESD, the ESD obtained from CT and interventional procedures were significantly (p < 0.05) higher when compared to PET/CT. Fluoroscopic time did not correlate with the ESD (eye, head, thyroid, and shoulder; R2 = 0.03). CA frequency after PET/CT was significantly higher (p < 0.001) when compared to CT and interventional procedures. MN frequency was significantly higher in 24-hs (p < 0.001) post-interventional procedure compared to 2-hs. The mean ± SD of mean fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX and p53ser15 obtained from all subjects underwent PET/CT and interventional procedures did not show a significant difference (p > 0.05) between pre- and post-procedure. However, the relative fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX and p53ser15 was >1 in 58.5 % and 65.8 % of subjects respectively. Large inter-individual variation and lack of correlation between physical dose and biomarkers suggest the need for robust dosimetry with a large sample size to understand the health effects of low dose radiation.

On the choice of methodology for evaluating dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks

Recently, several compilations of individual radiation epidemiology study results have aimed to obtain direct evidence on the magnitudes of dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks. These compilations have relied on meta-analyses of ratios of risks from low dose-rate studies and matched risks from the solid cancer Excess Relative Risk models fitted to the acutely exposed Japanese A-bomb cohort. The purpose here is to demonstrate how choices of methodology for evaluating dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks may influence the results reported for dose-rate effects. The current analysis is intended to address methodological issues and does not imply that the authors recommend a particular value for the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor. A set of 22 results from one recent published study has been adopted here as a test set of data for applying the many different methods described here, that nearly all produced highly consistent results. Some recently voiced concerns, involving the recalling of the well-known theoretical point-the ratio of two normal random variables has a theoretically unbounded variance-that could potentially cause issues, are shown to be unfounded when aimed at the published work cited and examined in detail here. In the calculation of dose-rate effects for radiation protection purposes, it is recommended that meta-estimators should retain the full epidemiological and dosimetric matching information between the risks from the individual low dose-rate studies and the acutely exposed A-bomb cohort and that a regression approach can be considered as a useful alternative to current approaches.