Comparison and multi-model inference of excess risks models for radiation-related solid cancer

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

Radiation-Related Thyroid Cancer

Radiation is an environmental factor that elevates the risk of developing thyroid cancer. Actual and possible scenarios of exposures to external and internal radiation are multiple and diverse. This article reviews radiation doses to the thyroid and corresponding cancer risks due to planned, existing, and emergency exposure situations, and medical, public, and occupational categories of exposures. Any exposure scenario may deliver a range of doses to the thyroid, and the risk for cancer is addressed along with modifying factors. The consequences of the Chornobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents are described, summarizing the information on thyroid cancer epidemiology, treatment, and prognosis, clinicopathological characteristics, and genetic alterations. The Chornobyl thyroid cancers have evolved in time: becoming less aggressive and driver shifting from fusions to point mutations. A comparison of thyroid cancers from the 2 areas reveals numerous differences that cumulatively suggest the low probability of the radiogenic nature of thyroid cancers in Fukushima. In view of continuing usage of different sources of radiation in various settings, the possible ways of reducing thyroid cancer risk from exposures are considered. For external exposures, reasonable measures are generally in line with the As Low As Reasonably Achievable principle, while for internal irradiation from radioactive iodine, thyroid blocking with stable iodine may be recommended in addition to other measures in case of anticipated exposures from a nuclear reactor accident. Finally, the perspectives of studies of radiation effects on the thyroid are discussed from the epidemiological, basic science, and clinical points of view.