Pre-hepatectomy prognostic staging to determine treatment strategy for colorectal cancer metastases to the liver

Clinical Prediction Models for Prognosis of Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Comprehensive Review of Regression-Based and Machine Learning Models

Colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) is a disease entity that warrants special attention due to its high frequency and potential curability. Identification of "high-risk" patients is increasingly popular for risk stratification and personalization of the management pathway. Traditional regression-based methods have been used to derive prediction models for these patients, and lately, focus has shifted to artificial intelligence-based models, with employment of variable supervised and unsupervised techniques. Multiple endpoints, like overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and development or recurrence of postoperative complications have all been used as outcomes in these studies. This review provides an extensive overview of available clinical prediction models focusing on the prognosis of CRLM and highlights the different predictor types incorporated in each model. An overview of the modelling strategies and the outcomes chosen is provided. Specific patient and treatment characteristics included in the models are discussed in detail. Model development and validation methods are presented and critically appraised, and model performance is assessed within a proposed framework.

Impact of Surgical Resection on Metachronous Metastases of Colorectal Cancer According to Tumor Doubling Time

BACKGROUND/AIM

We aimed to elucidate the prognostic impact of tumor doubling time (DT) and radical surgery when classified by DT in patients with metachronous liver, lung, or peritoneal metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed the data of 1941 patients who underwent curative surgery for CRC and calculated DT for recurrences using computed tomography.

RESULTS

Short DT was an independent prognostic risk factor in liver (p<0.001) and peritoneal (p=0.03) metastases. Survival was significantly better in patients who underwent surgery than in those who did not, both in short and long DT groups in any metastatic organ (p<0.01). Patients with long DT gained significantly better prognostic benefit from surgery than those with short DT in liver (p=0.01) and peritoneal (p=0.04) metastases.

CONCLUSION

Surgery is recommended for resectable metastases, especially in patients with liver and peritoneal metastases with long DT.

Less intensive surveillance after radical surgery for stage I-III colorectal cancer by focusing on the doubling time of recurrence

PURPOSE

To propose a new and improved surveillance schedule for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients by focusing on the recurrence rate, resectability, and especially, the tumor doubling time (DT) of recurrent tumors.

METHODS

The subjects of this retrospective review were 1774 consecutive patients who underwent radical surgery for stage I-III CRC between January, 2004 and December, 2015. We calculated the DT by measuring the tumor diameter using computed tomography (CT).

RESULTS

The median DT for recurrences in the liver, lung, peritoneum, and other locations were 35, 72, 85, and 36 days, respectively, (p < 0.001) and tumor growth rates differed according to the organs where recurrence developed. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the DT was strongly associated with the relapse-free interval from primary surgery (p < 0.001), and that the DT in patients with recurrence detected ≥ 3 years after primary surgery was longer by 151.1 days than that in patients with recurrence detected within 1 year after primary surgery. We proposed a less intensive surveillance, which achieved an average cost reduction of 32.5% compared with conventional surveillance in Japan.

CONCLUSION

We propose a new and more cost-efficient surveillance schedule for CRC surgery patients in the clinical setting.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Relapse Risk (CERR) Score for Colorectal Liver Metastases: Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

The calculation of the tumor burden score (TBS) is not perfect because the bilobar spread of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) is neglected. The identification of an ideal prognostic scoring system for CRLM remains controversial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent curative intent liver resection for CRLM from one medical center were enrolled in cohort 1 (787 patients) and cohort 2 (162 patients). Tumor relapse-free survival (RFS) was the main outcome. A Cox regression model was used to identify independent predictors of prognosis. The time-dependent area under the curve, calibration curve, and C-index were employed to validate the predictive ability of the survival model.

RESULTS

Modified TBS (mTBS) was established by a mathematical equation with parameters including CRLM size, CRLM number, and unilobar or bilobar metastasis. Five preoperative predictors of worse RFS were identified in cohort 1 and incorporated into the Comprehensive Evaluation of Relapse Risk (CERR) score: KRAS/NRAS/BRAF-mutated tumor (1 point); node-positive primary (1 point); extrahepatic disease (1 point); carcinoembryonic antigen level > 200 ng/mL or carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) >200 U/mL (1 point); and mTBS between 5 and 11 (1 point) or 12 and over (2 points). Patients in cohort 1 were stratified by their CERR score into risk groups: the high-risk group (CERR score 4 or more), the medium-risk group (CERR score 2-3), and the low-risk group (CERR score 0-1). Importantly, internal validation in cohort 1 and further validation in cohort 2 both showed the superior discriminatory capacity of the CERR score.

CONCLUSION

mTBS should be promoted. The CERR score is a powerful prognostic tool that can help determine optimal clinical management strategies.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

This work resulted in the successful modification of the tumor burden score and development of a comprehensive and practical prognostic scoring system-the Comprehensive Evaluation of Relapse Risk (CERR) score. The CERR score, with a better prognostic discriminatory ability, outperformed the Fong score. Perhaps more importantly, the CERR score is a powerful prognostic tool because it unified the most consistently reported prognostic factors. Therefore, the CERR score can assist doctors in determining optimal clinical management strategies.

Clinical and molecular determinants of extrahepatic disease progression in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer with liver-limited metastases deemed initially unresectable

BACKGROUND

No tools to predict the probability of extrahepatic disease progression (ePD) of initially unresectable, liver-limited metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are currently available. To estimate the likelihood to develop ePD and to identify clinical and molecular factors that could predict extrahepatic progression-free survival (ePFS), we conducted an observational, retrospective, multicentre cohort study.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified a cohort of 225 patients with initially unresectable liver-limited disease (LLD), treated from January 2004 to December 2017 with first-line doublets or triplet plus a biological agent at two Italian institutions.

RESULTS

173 (77%) patients experienced ePD which occurred within 1, 2 or 3 years from the diagnosis of mCRC in 15%, 49% and 66% of patients, respectively. Globally, 164 (73%) patients underwent a liver resection at some point of their disease history, and 54 (33%) of them underwent a subsequent locoregional treatment. Age > 70 years, locoregional nodal involvement at diagnosis of colorectal cancer and ≥4 liver metastases were significantly associated with higher risk of ePD while liver resections were associated with reduced risk of ePD. In the multivariable model, number of liver metastases (subdistribution HR, SHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.36; p = 0.01) and liver resections (SHR 0.43, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.63; p = 0.001) were still associated with ePD. Number of liver metastases < 4, no nodal involvement at diagnosis and liver resections were also associated with prolonged ePFS.

CONCLUSIONS

The identified clinical factors could help physicians in personalising the intensity and aggressiveness of liver-directed treatments in patients with mCRC with initially unresectable LLD.

Prognostic significance of doubling time in patients undergoing radical surgery for metachronous peritoneal metastases of colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

The doubling times of tumor volume and tumor markers are associated with the prognosis of liver or lung metastases from colorectal cancer (CRC). However, no studies have assessed peritoneal metastases. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the association between doubling time and the prognosis of patients who underwent radical surgery for metachronous peritoneal metastases of CRC.

METHODS

We calculated the tumor doubling times (TDT) of peritoneal metastases and serum carcinoembryonic antigen-doubling times (CEA-DT) in 33 consecutive patients who underwent radical surgery for metachronous peritoneal metastases between January 2006 and April 2017. The impact of short TDT and CEA-DT on overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) was retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

In long TDT (> 137 days) group, the 5-year OS rate was 74.1% and median OS time was 6.6 years. In long CEA-DT (> 102 days) group, the 5-year OS rate was 50.0% and median OS time was 5.6 years. Conversely, in short TDT (≤ 137 days) and CEA-DT (≤ 102 days) group, the 5-year OS rates and median OS times were both 0.0% and 3.2 years, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, short TDT was an independent risk factor for poor RFS (P = 0.006) and OS (P = 0.010). Similarly, short CEA-DT was also a poor risk factor for RFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Short TDT and CEA-DT are independent risk factors for poor OS and RFS after surgery for metachronous peritoneal metastases of CRC. TDT and CEA-DT should be considered when selecting candidates for surgical resection.

Prognostic factors for survival in stage IV rectal cancer: A Swedish nationwide case-control study

PURPOSE

The aim was to identify patient-, tumor- and treatment-related prognostic factors for five-year survival in rectal cancer patients with synchronous stage IV disease.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This nationwide case-control study was based on the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry with supplementary information from medical records and the Swedish Inpatient Registry during the period 2000-2008. All resected rectal cancer patients with synchronous metastases that survived more than five years were included as cases. The control group consisted of corresponding patients who lived less than five years, matched in a 1:2 based on gender, age, resection of the rectal tumor, and the study period.

RESULTS

A total of 405 patients were identified; 99 long-term survivors (LTS) and 182 short-term survivors (STS). Patient-related factors of symptoms and comorbidity did not differ between LTS and STS. Among the treatment-related factors, multiple site metastases (p = 0.007), bilobar liver metastasis (p = 0.002), and increasing number of liver metastasis (p < 0.001) were associated with STS. Prognostic treatment-related factors were preoperative radiotherapy (p = 0.001), metastasectomy (p < 0.001), and radical resection of the primary tumor (p = 0.014). In the multivariable analysis, the single most important factor for becoming a LTS was a metastasectomy (hazard ratio: 8.474, 95% confidence interval: 4.098-17.543).

CONCLUSIONS

The most important prognostic factor for long-term survival in patients with stage IV rectal cancer was metastasectomy, especially liver surgery. With thorough selection of patients for metastasectomy more patients with metastasized rectal cancer may survive beyond five years.

Increased carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) following neoadjuvant chemotherapy predicts poor prognosis in patients that undergo hepatectomy for liver-only colorectal metastases

BACKGROUND

The importance of preoperative chemotherapy in a multimodality management of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) has been demonstrated. We analyse the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) changes following neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with CRLM who underwent liver resection.

METHODS

The final cohort included 107 eligible patients. Increased CEA levels following neoadjuvant chemotherapy were defined as the increase of baseline CEA level at diagnosis of CRLM compared with the CEA level after completion of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Disease-free survival (DFS), post-recurrence survival (PRS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated using both Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox-regression methods.

RESULTS

CEA increase was associated with decreased PRS and OS (HR 2.69; 95 % CI, 1.28-5.63; p = 0.009, and HR 2.50; 95 % CI, 1.12-5.56; p = 0.025, respectively) in multivariate analysis, but there was no association between CEA changes and DFS. CEA increase was only associated with disease progression during preoperative chemotherapy (p = 0.014). Interestingly, this association was not absolute, as only 5 of the 11 patients with disease progression demonstrated CEA increase. Regarding the remaining 12 patients with CEA increase, according to RECIST criteria, eight patients demonstrated partial response and four patients stable disease.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we demonstrated the CEA increase following neoadjuvant chemotherapy as an adverse prognostic factor for PRS, and OS but not for DFS in patients undergoing liver resection for liver-only colorectal metastases.

Weak stromal Caveolin-1 expression in colorectal liver metastases predicts poor prognosis after hepatectomy for liver-only colorectal metastases

Loss of stromal Caveolin-1 (CAV1) expression is associated with poor prognosis in various cancers. We evaluated the prognostic value of CAV1 expression of both cancer cells and stromal cells in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) in patients undergoing hepatectomy. In this retrospective study, 109 patients were enrolled. CAV1 expression was studied by immunohistochemistry. The staining was scored semiquantitatively as weak or strong. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated using both Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Coxregression methods. Weak stromal CAV1 expression was associated with decreased DFS and OS in univariate and in multivariate analysis (HR 2.00; 95% CI, 1.24–3.22; P = 0.004, and HR 2.47; 95% CI, 1.28–4.76; P = 0.007, respectively). Cancer cell CAV1 expression was not associated with DFS and OS. Five-year DFS and OS rates were 13% and 43%, respectively, in patients with weak stromal CAV1 expression and 40% and 71%, respectively, in patients with strong stromal CAV1 expression. In this study, we indicate that weak stromal CAV1 expression in CRLM is an adverse prognostic factor in patients who undergo liver resection for liver-only colorectal metastases. We suggest validation of this finding in an independent cohort and consideration of risk stratification for post-hepatectomy adjuvant follow-up and therapy.

Metastatic liver disease from non-colorectal, non-neuroendocrine, non-sarcoma cancers: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatic resection of liver metastases of non-colorectal, non-neuroendocrine, and non-sarcoma (NCNNNS) primary malignancies seems to improve survival in selected patients. The aims of the current review were to describe long-term results of surgery and to evaluate prognostic factors for survival in patients who underwent resection of NCNNNS liver metastases.

METHODS

We identified 30 full texts (25 single-center and 5 multicenter studies) published after year 1995 and published in English with a total of 3849 patients. For NCNNNS liver metastases, 83.4 % of these subjects were resected.

RESULTS

No prior systematic reviews or meta-analyses on this topic were identified. All studies were case series without matching control groups. The most common primary sites were breast (23.8 %), genito-urinary (21.8 %), and gastrointestinal tract (19.8 %). The median 5- and 10-year overall survival were 32.3 % (range 19-42 %) and 24 % (indicated only in two studies, range 23-25 %), respectively, with 71 % of R0 resections.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence suggesting that surgery of NCNNNS metastases is safe, feasible, and effective if treatment is part of a multidisciplinary approach and if indication is based on the prognostic factors underlined in literature analysis.

Elevated platelet to lymphocyte ratio predicts poor prognosis after hepatectomy for liver-only colorectal metastases, and it is superior to neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as an adverse prognostic factor

Recent evidence indicates that inflammation is an essential component of pathogenesis and progression of cancer. In this study, we analysed two indexes of systemic inflammation, the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in liver-only colorectal metastases treated with liver resection following neoadjuvant chemotherapy. In this retrospective study, 140 patients were enroled. The NLR and PLR were calculated on the basis of preoperative blood cell count, and their cut-off levels were determined by applying receiver operating curve analysis. A NLR>2.4 and a PLR>150 were considered to be elevated. DFS and OS were calculated using both Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression methods. Both high NLR and high PLR were associated with decreased DFS [HR 1.55; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.32; P=0.033, and HR 1.78; 95% CI 1.19-2.67; P=0.005, respectively] and OS (HR 2.21; 95% CI 1.24-3.96; P=0.007, and HR 2.90; 95% CI 1.61-5.21; P<0.001, respectively) in univariate analysis, but only PLR remained significant in multivariate analysis for both DFS and OS (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.04-2.71; P=0.034, and HR 2.17; 95% CI 1.09-4.32; P=0.027, respectively). When we divided patients into three groups (group 1: normal both NLR and PLR; group 2: high NLR or high PLR; group 3: high both NLR and PLR), the five-year DFS and OS rates for these groups were 43, 26, 9% (P=0.004) and 73, 59, 34% (P<0.001), respectively. In this study, we indicate that preoperative PLR is superior to preoperative NLR as an adverse prognostic factor in patients who undergo liver resection for liver-only colorectal metastases.

Systematic review of outcomes of patients undergoing resection for colorectal liver metastases in the setting of extra hepatic disease

BACKGROUND

Surgical resection for patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) can offer patients a significant survival benefit. We hypothesised that patients with CRLM and extra hepatic disease (EHD) undergoing metastasectomy had comparable survival and describe outcomes based on the distribution of metastatic disease.

METHODS

A systematic search using a predefined registered protocol was undertaken between January 2003 and June 2012. Primary exposure was hepatic resection for CRLM and primary outcome measure was overall survival. Meta-regression techniques were used to analyse differences between patients with and without extra hepatic disease.

FINDINGS

From a pool of 4996 articles, 50 were retained for data extraction (3481 CRLM patients with EHD). The median survival (MS) was 30.5 (range, 9-98) months which was achieved with an operative mortality rate of 0-4.2%. The 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) were 42.4% (range, 20.6-77%) and 28% (range, 0-61%) respectively. Patients with EHD of the lungs had a MS of 45 (range, 39-98) months versus lymph nodes (portal and para-aortic) 26 (range, 21-48) months versus peritoneum 29 (range, 18-32) months. The MS also varied by the amount of liver disease - 42.2months (<two lesions) versus 39.6months (two lesions) versus 28months (⩾three lesions).

INTERPRETATION

In the evolving landscape of multimodality therapy, selective hepatic resection for CRLM patients with EHD is feasible with potential impact on survival. Patients with minimal liver disease and EHD in the lung achieve the best outcome.

Incidence and treatment of local site recurrences following RFA of colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) who are ineligible for curative surgery are potential candidates for radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Although RFA has emerged as a well accepted and documented treatment modality, there are still some reservations because of initially high rates of local site recurrences (LSR). The aim of the present study was to evaluate LSR levels following RFA treatment, with a specific focus on re-treatment and survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients ineligible for curative resection of CRLM and undergoing RFA alone or in combination with resection were prospectively included from July 2000 to December 2010 and retrospectively analyzed. Patients with untreatable extrahepatic disease were excluded. FDG PET-CT was conducted at 3-6 month intervals after RFA. Patients with LSR were evaluated for re-treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 132 patients were treated with RFA, which was combined with resection in 64 patients. A total of 290 lesions were ablated, with a mean number of 2.19 per patient and a mean size of 2.2 cm. Median survival was 41 months, with a 3- and 5-year survival of, respectively, 60 and 30.8 %. Following initial RFA, 39 patients developed an LSR in 40 ablated lesions, and local recurrence was strongly related to lesion size. Re-treatment could be performed in 26/39 patients, of whom eight remained disease-free.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiofrequency ablation can be applied to CRLM of less than 3 cm with curative intent. In the absence of extensive intrahepatic or extrahepatic disease, renewed treatment of local recurrences should be considered and is often successful.

Perioperative change in peripheral blood monocyte count may predict prognosis in patients with colorectal liver metastasis after hepatic resection

BACKGROUND

Prognostic value of perioperative change in peripheral blood leukocyte subset count of cancer patients have not been fully investigated. Therefore, we retrospectively investigated the relation between perioperative change in peripheral blood monocyte count and disease-free as well as overall survival after hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM).

METHODS

The subjects were 64 patients who underwent hepatic resection for CRLM between January 2000 and December 2008. We retrospectively investigated the relation between perioperative change in peripheral blood monocyte count and disease-free as well as overall survival.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, more than four lymph node metastases (P = 0.0298) and extrahepatic disease (P = 0.0423) were significant predictors of disease-free survival, while significant predictor of overall survival were more than four lymph node metastases (P = 0.0011), bilobar disease (P = 0.0024), and increase in perioperative monocyte less than twice (P = 0.0029). Morover, increase in perioperative monocyte of less than twice positively correlated with intraoperative blood transfusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative change in peripheral blood monocyte count is an independent risk factor for overall survival after hepatic resection for CRLM, and may reflect immunosuppressive state.

Prognostic models for outcome following liver resection for colorectal cancer metastases: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver resection provides the best chance for cure in colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastases. A variety of factors that might influence survival and recurrence have been identified. Predictive models can help in risk stratification, to determine multidisciplinary treatment and follow-up for individual patients.

AIMS

To systematically review available prognostic models described for outcome following resection of CRC liver metastases and to assess their differences and applicability.

METHODS

The Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched for articles proposing a prognostic model or risk stratification system for resection of CRC liver metastases. Search terms included 'colorectal', 'liver', 'metastasis', 'resection', 'prognosis' and 'prediction'. The articles were systematically reviewed.

RESULTS

Fifteen prognostic systems were identified, published between 1996 and 2009. The median study population was 305 patients and the median follow-up was 32 months. All studies used Cox proportional hazards for multi-variable analysis. No prognostic factor was common in all models, though there was a tendency towards the number of metastases, CRC spread to lymph nodes, maximum size of metastases, preoperative CEA level and extrahepatic spread as representing independent risk factors. Seven models assigned more weight to selected factors considered of higher predictive value.

CONCLUSION

The existing predictive models are diverse and their prognostic factors are often not weighed according to their impact. For the development of future predictive models, the complex relations within datasets and differences in relevance of individual factors should be taken into account, for example by using artificial neural networks.

Effect on outcome of recurrence patterns after hepatectomy for colorectal metastases

BACKGROUND

Despite improvements in surgery and chemotherapy, most patients develop recurrence after hepatectomy for metastatic colorectal cancer. Data are lacking on the effect of these patterns on outcome.

METHODS

A retrospective review of a prospectively maintained hepatobiliary database was performed. Pattern and timing of recurrence and outcome after recurrence were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses of factors associated with outcome after recurrence were carried out.

RESULTS

From January 1997 through May 2003, a total of 733 patients underwent hepatectomy for colorectal metastases. Of these, 637 patients (87%) were included in the analysis, and in 393 patients (62%), recurrence was documented at the time of last follow-up. Initial recurrence patterns included the following: liver only in 120 patients (31%), lung only in 107 (27%), other single sites in 49 (12%), and multiple sites in 117 (30%). Recurrence occurred within 2 years of hepatectomy in 75% of patients and after 3 years in 11%. Margins at hepatectomy, recurrence pattern, resected recurrence, and disease-free interval from time of colectomy to hepatic metastasis and from time of hepatectomy to recurrence were independently associated with survival as measured from the time of recurrence. Recurrence in the lung, resected recurrence, and time to recurrence after hepatectomy were associated with prolonged survival as measured from the time of hepatectomy and the time of recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing and pattern of recurrence after hepatic resection for metastatic colorectal cancer are important predictors of long-term survival.

Treatment for colorectal liver metastases: a review

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decade, the emergence of surgical adjuncts such as portal vein embolization, two-stage hepatectomy, and ablative therapies not only decreases mortality and morbidity after an extended hepatectomy but also broadens the indication for surgical treatment of liver metastasis from colorectal cancer. Combination chemotherapeutic regimens, namely 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid with irinotecan or oxaliplatin, and targeted monochromal antibodies can downsize the tumor burden to the extent that formerly unresectable metastases can sometimes be excised.

DISCUSSION

The 5-year survival rate following liver resection ranges between 25% and 58%. During the 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid with oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid with irinotecan treatment period, the patients who were deemed to be resectable should be considered as surgical candidates regardless of the associated adverse predictive factors. The emergence of epidermal growth factor receptor antibody agents, which act effectively in patients with Kras wild-type tumor, fosters treatment individualization.

CONCLUSION

The efficacy of the perioperative chemotherapy on survival benefit for resectable liver metastases has not been justified. However, the timing and indication of surgical treatment paradigm in colorectal liver metastasis, including for synchronous disease and extrahepatic disease, are dramatically changing with the development of chemotherapeutic agents.

Clinical significance of microvessel count in patients with metastatic liver cancer originating from colorectal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Microvessel count (MVC) has been correlated with patient prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma. We investigated whether MVC assessed by staining with CD34 antibody was associated with disease-free and overall survival in patients with metastatic liver cancer (MLC).

METHODS

We examined relationships between MVC and clinicopathologic factors or postoperative outcomes in 139 MLC patients who underwent hepatectomy between 1990 and 2006. CD34 expression was analyzed by the immunohistochemical method.

RESULTS

MVC was associated with fibrous pseudocapsular formation on histological examination. By means of the modern Japanese classification of liver metastasis, poorer survival was associated with higher score, poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma, higher preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, fibrous pseudocapsular formation, and smaller surgical margin. Shorter disease-free survival was associated with higher score when the Japanese classification of liver metastasis was used, multiple or bilobar tumor, regional lymph node metastasis in primary colon carcinoma, preoperative CEA level, fibrous pseudocapsular formation, and smaller surgical margin (<5 mm). Higher MVC (>or=406/mm(2)) was associated with decreased disease-free and overall survival by univariate analysis (P = .034 and P = .021, respectively), and higher MVC represented an independently poor prognostic factor in overall survival by Cox multivariate analysis (risk ratio, 2.71; P = .023) in addition to histological differentiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor MVC seems to be a useful prognostic marker of MLC patient survival.

Elevated preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts survival following hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) provides an indicator of inflammatory status. An elevated NLR has been shown to be a prognostic indicator in primary colorectal malignancy. The aim of this study was to establish whether NLR predicts outcome in patients undergoing resection for colorectal liver metastasis.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of the white cell and differential counts for 440 patients undergoing liver resections for colorectal liver metastasis between January 1996 and January 2006. An NLR > or = 5 was considered to be elevated.

RESULTS

Two hundred and eighty-nine males and 151 females were included. Seventy-eight patients (18%) had an elevated NLR, 55 of whom died, giving elevated NLR a positive predictive value (PPV) for death of 71%. Sixty of the 78 patients had recurrent disease giving raised NLR an PPV for recurrence of 78%. The 5-year survival for patients undergoing resection with high NLR was significantly worse than that for patients with normal NLR (22% vs. 43%, p<0.0001). Univariate analysis of factors affecting survival revealed raised NLR, number of metastases > 8, tumour size > 5 cm and age > 70 significantly affected outcome. All factors except tumour size remained significant predictors of term survival on multivariate analysis (NLR:HR=2.261, CI=1.654-3.129, p<0.0001, metastases > 8:HR=1.611, CI=1.006-2.579, p=0.047, age > 70:HR=1.418, CI=1.049-1.930, p=0.027). Elevated NLR was found to be the sole positive predictor of recurrence on univariate analysis (HR=4.521, CI=2.475-8.257, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Elevated NLR increases both risk of death and the risk of recurrence in patients who undergo surgery for CRLM. Preoperative NLR measurement may therefore provide a simple method of identifying patients with a poorer prognosis.

Surgery for colorectal liver metastases: expanding the boundaries but where have all the patients gone

AIM

To review and discuss the current strategies and controversies in the surgical management of colorectal cancer liver metastases.

METHODS

An analysis of indications, contraindications and scoring systems and concepts for expanding the indications for resection are discussed. The findings and discussion are related to our own experience, especially with radiofrequency assisted liver resection for colorectal cancer liver metastases.

RESULTS

Resection is the only management strategy that can potentially cure the patient. Certain controversies still exist, such as contraindications for surgery, timing of treatment of synchronous metastases, significance of extra-hepatic disease etc. Strategies that can improve respectability are discussed. Parenchyma oriented, tissue sparing surgery facilitates reresection should it become necessary.

CONCLUSION

The management of colorectal cancer liver metastases is still a confusing issue for general oncologists and general surgeons. A multidisciplinary approach that tailors the management strategy to the individual patient is the only option that provides optimal results for patients with advanced disease.

C-reactive protein as a predictor of prognosis following curative resection for colorectal liver metastases

There is increasing evidence that systemic inflammatory response has a positive correlation with a poorer outcome in patients undergoing resection for solid tumours. The aim of this study was to analyse the impact of an elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), an outcome following curative resection for colorectal liver metastases. One hundred and seventy patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal liver metastases were included in the study. Laboratory measurements of haemoglobin, white cell, platelets, albumin and CRP were taken on the day before surgery. Elevated CRP (>10 mg l(-1)) was present in 54 (31.8%) patients. The median survival of patients with an elevated CRP was 19 months (95% CI 7.5-31.2 months) compared to 42.8 months (95% CI 33.2-52.5 months) for those with a normal CRP, P=0.004. Similarly, when assessing disease-free survival, patients with an elevated CRP had poorer disease-free survival (median of 11.8 months (95% CI 6.4-17.3) compared to median of 15.1 months (95% CI 11.1-19.1)), P=0.043. The result of the study showed that an elevated preoperative CRP is a predictor of poor outcome in patients undergoing curative resection for colorectal liver metastases.

Outcome After Hepatectomy for Multiple (Four or More) Colorectal Metastases in the Era of Effective Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic resection is generally accepted as the only potential for long-term survival in patients with colorectal metastases confined to the liver. Despite an unknown benefit, hepatic resection is playing an increasing role in patients with extensive disease.

METHODS

A retrospective review of a prospectively maintained hepatobiliary surgical database was carried out. Outcome after hepatectomy for four or more colorectal hepatic metastases was reviewed.

RESULTS

Between 1998 and 2002, out of a total of 584 patients, 98 (17%) with four or more colorectal hepatic metastases were resected. Actuarial 5-year survival was 33% for the entire group, with seven actual 5-year survivors. There were no perioperative deaths, and the perioperative morbidity was 28%. Positive margins and extrahepatic disease resection were independently associated with poor outcome. The median disease-free survival was 12 months, with no actuarial disease-free survivors at 5 years. Recurrence pattern, response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, time to recurrence, and resection of recurrent disease were also associated with outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term survival can be achieved after resection of multiple colorectal metastases; however, because most patients will experience recurrence of disease, effective adjuvant therapy and close follow-up is necessary.

Proposal of a new and simple staging system of colorectal liver metastasis

AIM: To create a new, simple and useful staging system for colorectal liver metastasis analogous to the Tumor Node Metastasis classification system of International Union Against Cancer.

METHODS: A retrospective review was undertaken of 81 consecutive patients who underwent partial hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases (group 1). Clinical and pathological features of both primary and metastatic liver cancers were entered into a multivariate analysis to determine independent variables helpful in accurately predicting long-term prognosis after hepatectomy. Using selected variables, we created a new staging system like TNM classification. The usefulness of the new staging system was examined in a series of 92 patients from another hospital (group 2).

RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that 81 patients in group 1 had significant multiple hepatic tumors with the largest tumor being more than 5 cm in diameter, resectable extrahepatic distant metastases, and independent prognostic factors for poor survival after hepatectomy. Using these three variables, we created a new staging system to classify patients with colorectal liver metastases. Finally, our new staging system classified the patients both in group 1 and in group 2.

CONCLUSION: Our new staging system of colorectal liver metastasis is simple and useful for staging patients.

Treatment for multiple bilobar liver metastases of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Recent advances have extended indications for hepatectomy to include multiple bilobar colorectal liver metastases (CLM). Staging systems based on the biological malignancy of primary and metastatic tumors provide appropriate indications for hepatectomy in CLM. However, suitability for resection in patients with complex and extensive hepatic metastases is controversial.

METHODS

A medline search was performed to identify papers reporting the resection for CLM. Techniques, indication, and results were reviewed.

RESULTS

If the anticipated remnant liver volume is small (25-40% of total), suggesting a high risk of postoperative liver failure, portal vein embolization (PVE) is recommended prior to hepatectomy. However, curative resections are not always possible. Specifically in synchronous multiple bilobar CLM, two-stage hepatectomy, comprising bilateral hepatectomy and primary resection with or without PVE, can prevent growth of ipsilateral metastatic nodules in the remnant liver and reduce surgical risk. Several local ablation techniques can complement surgery if hepatic resection alone increases the risk of postoperative liver failure or is not curative. Chemotherapy combined with targeted treatment can suppress recurrence and extend indications for hepatectomy by reducing the size and number of primary irresectable tumors.

CONCLUSION

PVE or staged procedure combining with local ablation or neoadjuvant, downstaging or adjuvant therapies extends indications for hepatectomy to include multiple bilobar CLM. The 5-year survival rate for multiple bilobar CLM treated with alternating hepatectomy and chemotherapy is comparable to the values reported for single and hemilateral CLM.