Selection of predictor variables for species distribution models: a case study with an invasive marine bryozoan

Current and future development of Acrocomia aculeata focused on biofuel potential and climate change challenges

The search for sustainable alternatives to petroleum has driven research on biofuels, with a focus on those derived from organic biomass. This study centres on macaúba (Acrocomia aculeata), a promising oilseed for biodiesel production. Advances in cultivation techniques and the mapping of climatically suitable areas are essential to consolidate the use of this species in the energy sector. This work aimed to utilise predictive modelling with the CLIMEX software to assess the current and future climatic suitability of macaúba in the context of climate change. Data on the global distribution of macaúba, growth and stress parameters, as well as climatic variables, were collected. The modelling was conducted based on the A2 SRES scenario for the present, 2050, 2080, and 2100, including the generation of the Weekly Growth Index. Results indicated high suitability in tropical regions, particularly in Brazil and Indonesia. However, future projections highlight significant challenges due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. The study provides a critical perspective to guide sustainable policies in the energy sector, underscoring the potential of macaúba as a viable biodiesel source while warning of the challenges posed by climate change.

Simulation of Pseudostellaria heterophylla distribution in China: assessing habitat suitability and bioactive component abundance under future climate change scenariosplant components

Background

Pseudostellaria heterophylla is used in traditional Chinese medicine, so ensuring an adequate supply of plant material with high levels of bioactive components is important.

Methods

Using an optimized maximum entropy niche model and assays of bioactive components from cultivation samples, this study started from the plant's natural distribution area and estimated correlations of ecological factors with not only abundance of the plant but also abundance of polysaccharides and heterophyllin B. These correlations were combined with the spatial analysis function in ArcGIS to generate maps of the suitability of different habitats in China for cultivating P. heterophylla under current climate conditions and different models of climate change.

Results

The following ecological factors emerged as particularly important for habitat suitability: precipitation of driest month and driest quarter, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of coldest quarter, contributing to a cumulative total of 87%. Under current climate conditions, optimum habitats of P. heterophylla were mainly distributed in the southwestern region (Guizhou) and eastern regions (Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu) of China, and only 0.197×106 km2 of these areas were optimum habitat. In future climate change scenarios, the optimal habitat area of P. heterophylla exhibited an increase across different time periods under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. By the 2090s, distribution area of high heterophyllin B content under SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios will increase significantly, distribution area of high polysaccharide content had little change under all three climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 5-8.5). The center of mass of suitable habitat migrates southwestward under scenario SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5, while it migrates northward under scenario SSP 5-8.5. Under the three climate scenarios, the center of mass of suitable habitat migrated consistently with that of high polysaccharide content but differed from that of high heterophyllin B content.

Conclusion

These findings provide a crucial foundation for cultivating P. heterophylla with superior medicinal properties, developing adaptive management strategies to enhance conservation efforts, and ensuring sustainable utilization in the face of global climate change.

Potential Distribution of and Sensitivity Analysis for Urochloa panicoides Weed Using Modeling: An Implication of Invasion Risk Analysis for China and Europe

Urochloapanicoides P. Beauv. is considered one of the most harmful weeds in the United States and Australia. It is invasive in Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil, but its occurrence is hardly reported in China and European countries. Species distribution models enable the measurement of the impact of climate change on plant growth, allowing for risk analysis, effective management, and invasion prevention. The objective of this study was to develop current and future climate models of suitable locations for U. panicoides and to determine the most influential climatic parameters. Occurrence data and biological information on U. panicoides were collected, and climatic parameters were used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) and to perform sensitivity analysis. The future projections for 2050, 2080, and 2100 were modeled under the A2 SRES scenario using the Global Climate Model, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS). The potential distribution of U. panicoides coincided with the data collected, and the reliability of the final model was demonstrated. The generated model identified regions where the occurrence was favorable, despite few records of the species. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters of the model were related to temperature, humidity, and cold stress. Future projections predict reductions in climate suitability for U. panicoides in Brazil, Australia, India, and Africa, and an increase in suitability in Mexico, the United States, European countries, and China. The rise in suitability of China and Europe is attributed to predicted climate change, including reduction in cold stress. From the results obtained, preventive management strategies can be formulated against the spread of U. panicoides, avoiding economic and biodiversity losses.