Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

Climate change impacts on temperate fruit and nut production: a systematic review

Temperate fruit and nut crops require distinctive cold and warm seasons to meet their physiological requirements and progress through their phenological stages. Consequently, they have been traditionally cultivated in warm temperate climate regions characterized by dry-summer and wet-winter seasons. However, fruit and nut production in these areas faces new challenging conditions due to increasingly severe and erratic weather patterns caused by climate change. This review represents an effort towards identifying the current state of knowledge, key challenges, and gaps that emerge from studies of climate change effects on fruit and nut crops produced in warm temperate climates. Following the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we analyzed 403 articles published between 2000 and 2023 that met the defined eligibility criteria. A 44-fold increase in the number of publications during the last two decades reflects a growing interest in research related to both a better understanding of the effects of climate anomalies on temperate fruit and nut production and the need to find strategies that allow this industry to adapt to current and future weather conditions while reducing its environmental impacts. In an extended analysis beyond the scope of the systematic review methodology, we classified the literature into six main areas of research, including responses to environmental conditions, water management, sustainable agriculture, breeding and genetics, prediction models, and production systems. Given the rapid expansion of climate change-related literature, our analysis provides valuable information for researchers, as it can help them identify aspects that are well understood, topics that remain unexplored, and urgent questions that need to be addressed in the future.

Strategies for managing spring frost risks in orchards: effectiveness and conditionality-a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Spring frosts pose an important threat to orchard productivity in temperate zones and projections do not exclude damaging events in the future. However, there is no up-to-date and systematic comparison of the effectiveness and conditionality of the existing passive and active damage prevention strategies. This systematic review seeks to answer the questions "How do the performances of spring frost damage reduction strategies in temperate fruit orchards compare?" and "How do environmental conditions affect the effectiveness of frost damage reduction strategies in temperate fruit orchards?".

METHODS

This review covers a large range of on-field strategies for the protection of flowering orchards against damage inflicted by late spring frost. All major temperate fruit tree crops and grapevines were included, provided that the performance of frost damage reduction was compared against a control in terms of bud and flower survival, yield and delays in flowering time, or ambient temperature change. Articles and reports were collected between June and October 2021 from the Web of Science Core Collection and regional indexes and from the databases Scopus, FAO AGRIS, USDA Agricola, CAB Abstracts and the Groenekennis database of the University of Wageningen, the Netherlands, as well as from relevant institutional websites and the Chinese scholarly search engine 'Baidu'. Biases resulting from inadequate randomisation, incomplete reporting or deficient study designs were reported. Temporal and spatial research trends and gaps were mapped based on 104 selected studies (from 8970 identified studies). Data was extracted for every experiment that an article reported on, leading to 971 data points. Groups of frost protection methods were compared in terms of effectiveness whereby environmental factors were examined to explain the variation of the effectiveness by means of mixed linear models.

REVIEW FINDINGS

Most included studies originate from the United States and Europe more than from the temperate fruit production regions in Asia. An increase over time in the research on foliar applications, including growth regulation hormones was observed. Apple, peach and more recently grapevine were the most researched fruit types, followed by cherry and pear. The validity of the selected studies was generally low as measures of variability were reported only occasionally. Therefore, only descriptive comparisons of effectiveness were undertaken between intervention classes by fruit types. Sprinkler systems were found to perform best for most studied outcomes, while the emerging biochemical solutions revealed mixed results. The performances of resource-intensive heating systems did not outperform low-resource techniques such as tunnels or coverings of individual buds. The lack of reporting standards did not allow extensive correlations with ambient factors and reduced the transferability of the review's findings. A need for standard protocols for experiments and reporting is therefore apparent.

CONCLUSIONS

In this field, strong shortcomings in the documentation of experimental setups and reporting standards were exposed. Implications for policy making are limited while for research recommendations to reduce bias and increase comparability are put forward.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Apple phenology occurs earlier across South Korea with higher temperatures and increased precipitation

This study examined relationships between temperature, precipitation, geo-topography, and the spring phenology of Fuji and Hongro apple cultivars along spatial gradients across South Korea. Phenology data was gathered from 2011 to 2014 in 42 uniformly managed research orchards which span a range in climate, latitude, and elevation. We used linear models and spatially explicit forecasts to study apple phenology under climate change scenarios. Given dry winters and complex terrain in South Korea, we hypothesized that, in addition to temperature, precipitation and geo-topographic factors influence apple phenology. We also expected responses to climate variation to be similar between (spatial) and within (temporal) orchards, given the controlled conditions and the use of apple clones in this study. With other factors held constant, phenological sensitivity ranged from - 3.2 to - 3.4 days °C^-1 for air temperature and - 0.5 to - 0.6 days cm^-1 for March precipitation in a combined model. When modeled without temperature, phenology changed by up to 10 days over the full range in March precipitation. Spring temperatures and precipitation in March had very little cross-correlation (r < 0.05), suggesting these patterns are independent; however, in a combined model including temperature, predicted changes in precipitation over the next 80 years have only a small impact on future apple phenology. Combining the best models with climate forecasts for South Korea, spring phenology continues to occur earlier over the next 80 years, mostly due to warming temperatures but with strong variation between regions. This suggests regionally specific climate change adaptation strategies are needed for future apple production in South Korea.

The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications

In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.

Characterization of the Polyphenolic Profiles of Peel, Flesh and Leaves of Malus domestica Cultivars Using UHPLC-DAD-HESI-MSn

Qualitative and quantitative analyses of polyphenols extracted from 21 Malus domestica cultivars using ultra high performance liquid chromatography with diode array detection coupled to heated electrospray ionization mass spectrometric detection was performed for separation of 27 phenolic compounds on a reversed phase UHPLC column with an optimized gradient consisting of 1% formic acid in water and 1% formic acid in methanol within 20 minutes. According to retention times, UV maxima and mass spectra of the peaks in the chromatograms obtained from extracts of apple peel, flesh and leaves, the polyphenolic compounds were identified and quantified. Based on fragmentation patterns, 6 phenolic acids, 5 flavan-3-ols, 5 dihydrochalcones, 8 flavonols and 3 flavone derivatives were characterized in the studied samples. The method was then employed for analysis of the polyphenolic pattern of 21 apple cultivars, both commercial and autochthonous for the Macedonian region, as well as for monitoring the influence of long term storage on the polyphenolic content and composition of apple fruits and for comparison of polyphenolic profiles of apple cultivars during two years of harvesting. The obtained results revealed minor differences in the quality and major variation in the content of phenolic compounds in the flesh, peel and leaves in the studied apple cultivars that is attributed mainly to cultivar differences and meteorological factors.

Differentiated dynamics of bud dormancy and growth in temperate fruit trees relating to bud phenology adaptation, the case of apple and almond trees

Few studies have focused on the characterization of bud dormancy and growth dynamics for temperate fruit species in temperate and mild cropping areas, although this is an appropriate framework to anticipate phenology adaptation facing future warming contexts which would potentially combine chill declines and heat increases. To examine this issue, two experimental approaches and field observations were used for high- and low-chill apple cultivars in temperate climate of southern France and in mild climates of northern Morocco and southern Brazil. Low-chill almond cultivars offered an additional relevant plant material for comparison with apple in northern Morocco. Divergent patterns of dormancy and growth dynamics were clearly found in apple tree between southern France and southern Brazil. Divergences were less pronounced between France and Morocco. A global view outlined main differences in the dormancy chronology and intensity, the transition between endordormancy and ecodormancy and the duration of ecodormancy. A key role of bud rehydration in the transition period was shown. High-chill cultivars would be submitted in mild conditions to heterogeneous rehydration capacities linked to insufficient chill fulfillment and excessive forcing linked to high temperatures. This would favor bud competitions and consequently excessive flowering durations and weak flowering. Low chilling requirements in apple and almond would conversely confer biological capacities to tolerate superficial dormancy and abrupt transition from endordormancy to ecodormancy without important heterogeneous rehydration states within buds. It may also assume that low-chill cultivars can also tolerate high temperatures during ecodormancy as well as extended flowering durations.

Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania

The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple.

Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.