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Harmsen M, Tabak C, Höglund-Isaksson L, Humpenöder F, Purohit P, van Vuuren D. Uncertainty in non-CO 2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2949. [PMID: 37268633 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38577-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO2) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathijs Harmsen
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands.
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
| | - Charlotte Tabak
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Lena Höglund-Isaksson
- Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, POBox 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Pallav Purohit
- Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Rafalska A, Walkiewicz A, Osborne B, Klumpp K, Bieganowski A. Variation in methane uptake by grassland soils in the context of climate change - A review of effects and mechanisms. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 871:162127. [PMID: 36764535 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Revised: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 02/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Grassland soils are climate-dependent ecosystems that have a significant greenhouse gas mitigating function through their ability to store large amounts of carbon (C). However, what is often not recognized is that they can also exhibit a high methane (CH4) uptake capacity that could be influenced by future increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and variations in temperature and water availability. While there is a wealth of information on C sequestration in grasslands there is less consensus on how climate change impacts on CH4 uptake or the underlying mechanisms involved. To address this, we assessed existing knowledge on the impact of climate change components on CH4 uptake by grassland soils. Increases in precipitation associated with soils with a high background soil moisture content generally resulted in a reduction in CH4 uptake or even net emissions, while the effect was opposite in soils with a relatively low background moisture content. Initially wet grasslands subject to the combined effects of warming and water deficits may absorb more CH4, mainly due to increased gas diffusivity. However, in the longer-term heat and drought stress may reduce the activity of methanotrophs when the mean soil moisture content is below the optimum for their survival. Enhanced plant productivity and growth under elevated CO2, increased soil moisture and changed nutrient concentrations, can differentially affect methanotrophic activity, which is often reduced by increasing N deposition. Our estimations showed that CH4 uptake in grassland soils can change from -57.7 % to +6.1 % by increased precipitation, from -37.3 % to +85.3 % by elevated temperatures, from +0.87 % to +92.4 % by decreased precipitation, and from -66.7 % to +27.3 % by elevated CO2. In conclusion, the analysis suggests that grasslands under the influence of warming and drought may absorb even more CH4, mainly because of reduced soil water contents and increased gas diffusivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrianna Rafalska
- Institute of Agrophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Doświadczalna 4, 20-290 Lublin, Poland
| | - Anna Walkiewicz
- Institute of Agrophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Doświadczalna 4, 20-290 Lublin, Poland.
| | - Bruce Osborne
- UCD School of Agriculture and Food Science and UCD Earth Institute, University College Dublin, Belfield, 4 Dublin, Ireland
| | - Katja Klumpp
- INRAE, University of Clermont Auvergne, VetAgro Sup, UREP Unité de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
| | - Andrzej Bieganowski
- Institute of Agrophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Doświadczalna 4, 20-290 Lublin, Poland
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Are CH4, CO2, and N2O Emissions from Soil Affected by the Sources and Doses of N in Warm-Season Pasture? ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12060697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The intensification of pasture production has increased the use of N fertilizers—a practice that can alter soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the fluxes of CH4, CO2, and N2O in the soil of Urochloa brizantha ‘Marandu’ pastures fertilized with different sources and doses of N. Two field experiments were conducted to evaluate GHG fluxes following N fertilization with urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate at doses of 0, 90, 180, and 270 kg N ha−1. GHG fluxes were quantified using the static chamber technique and gas chromatography. In both experiments, the sources and doses of N did not significantly affect cumulative GHG emissions, while N fertilization significantly affected cumulative N2O and CO2 emissions compared to the control treatment. The N2O emission factor following fertilization with urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate was lower than the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change standard (0.35%, 0.24%, and 0.21%, respectively, with fractionation fertilization and 1.00%, 0.83%, and 1.03%, respectively, with single fertilization). These findings are important for integrating national inventories and improving GHG estimation in tropical regions.
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Intensification: A Key Strategy to Achieve Great Animal and Environmental Beef Cattle Production Sustainability in Brachiaria Grasslands. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12166656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Intensification of tropical grassland can be a strategy to increase beef production, but methods for achieving this should maintain or reduce its environmental impact and should not compromise future food-producing capacity. The objective of this review was to discuss the aspects of grassland management, animal supplementation, the environment, and the socioeconomics of grassland intensification. Reducing environmental impact in the form of, for example, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is particularly important in Brazil, which is the second-largest beef producer in the world. Most Brazilian pastures, however, are degraded, representing a considerable opportunity for the mitigation and increase of beef-cattle production, and consequently increasing global protein supply. Moreover, in Brazil, forage production is necessary for seasonal feeding strategies that maintain animal performance during periods of forage scarcity. There are many options to achieve this objective that can be adopted alone or in association. These options include improving grassland management, pasture fertilization, and animal supplementation. Improving grazing management has the potential to mitigate GHG emissions through the reduction of the intensity of CO2 emissions, as well as the preservation of natural areas by reducing the need for expanding pastureland. Limitations to farmers adopting intensification strategies include cultural aspects and the lack of financial resources and technical assistance.
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