Temporal patterns of weekly births and conceptions predicted by meteorology, seasonal variation, and lunar phases

Circadian characteristics of term and preterm labors

The labor is a physiological event considered to have its own circadian (diurnal) rhythm, but some of the data remain conflicting, especially for preterm births. In this retrospective study, we analyzed the circadian trends of labor onset times in the Slovenian birth cohort from 1990 to 2018 with over 550,000 cases of singleton births. The number of term and preterm labor onsets was calculated for each hour in a day and circadian trends were evaluated for each of the study groups by modeling with a generalized Poisson distribution linked with the cosinor regression model using logarithmic link function. The induced labors were taken as the control group since the timing of labor depends mostly on the working schedule of personnel and not on the intrinsic rhythmic characteristics. For induced labors, the main peak in the number of labor cases was observed in the late morning hours (around 10 AM) for all gestational ages. The prominence of this peak becomes smaller in spontaneous premature labors with gradually disrupting rhythmicity in very preterm and extremely preterm cases. Labors starting with spontaneous contractions peak between 6 and 7 AM and lose the rhythmicity at 35 weeks of gestation while labors starting with a spontaneous rupture of membranes peak at 1 AM and lose the rhythmicity at 31 weeks of gestation, suggesting differences in underlying mechanisms. According to our knowledge, this is the first study that shows differences of circadian trends between different types of spontaneous labors, i.e., labors initiated with contraction and labors initiated with a spontaneous rupture of membranes. Moreover, the obtained results represent evidence of gradual disruption of rhythmicity from mild to extreme prematurity.

Time series analysis in environmental epidemiology: challenges and considerations

In environmental epidemiology, time series analyses represent a widely used statistical tool. However, though being commonly used, there is soften confusion regarding the specific requirements, such as which link function might be most appropriate, when or how to control for seasonality or how to account for lags. The present overview draws from experiences in other disciplines and discusses the proper execution of time series analyses based on considerations that are relevant in environmental epidemiology. Time series analysis in environmental epidemiology focuses on acute events caused by short-term changes in exposure. These exposures should be fairly wide-spread affecting a large number of persons, usually all inhabitants of a political entity. Pollutants in air or drinking water as well as meteorological factors serve as typical examples. Despite the many time series analyses performed world-wide, some health effects that would lend themselves to that approach are still under-explored. This would include also some neurological and psychiatric endpoints. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2023;36(6):704-16.