A novel hybrid artificial intelligent approach based on neural fuzzy inference model and particle swarm optimization for horizontal displacement modeling of hydropower dam

Adaptive decision support model for sustainable transport system using fuzzy AHP and dynamical Dijkstra simulations

Concerning decisions for modern public transportation project, the lack of consensus between stakeholders and foreseeability of future transportation requirements might cause poor sustainability of the project. Unfortunately, many decision models give decision opinions without the test of the sustainability. Therefore, a dynamical Dijkstra simulation model is proposed to simulate the real traffic flows. In the model, the cost of the road connections is dynamically updated according to the change of the passenger flows. Then a combined decision support model using fuzzy AHP and dynamical Dijkstra simulation tests is designed. The combined model is capable of analyzing and creating consensus among different stakeholder participants in a transport development problem. The application of FAHP and dynamical Dijkstra ensures that the consensus creation is not only based on the FAHP decision making process but also on the response of the simulated execution of the decisions by dynamical Dijkstra. Thus, the decision makers by FAHP can firstly make their initial preferences in transportation planning, given the pairwise comparison matrices and generate the related weight for the traffic control parameters. And the dynamical Dijkstra simulations test the plan's setting and gives a response to iteratively adjust the FAHP matrices and parameters. The combined model is tested in different scenarios. And the results show that by the application of the proposed model, decision-makers can be more aware of the conflicts of interests among the involved groups, and they can pay more attention to possible violations causing by the change of traffic environment, including the citizen numbers, the construction cost, the roll cost, and etc., to get a more sustainable plan.

Multi-arch dam safety evaluation based on statistical analysis and numerical simulation

The Foziling multi-arch dam, one of the few multi-arch dams in the world, was built on the bedrock with complicated geological conditions. It has undergone several reinforcements since it was put into service in the 1950s. In this study, the dam safety is evaluated by analyzing the measured displacements and simulating stresses in the concrete. Firstly, the multiple linear stepwise regression (MLSR) is used to train and test the relationships between the loads and displacement based on the hydrostatic-temperature-time (HTT) model. Subsequently, the contributions of water level, temperature, and time to displacements are determined, and the influence characteristics of water level and temperature on displacements are interpreted. Finally, the dam stress state is evaluated by establishing a dam finite element model and simulating the stress distribution in various operating conditions. The results indicate that (1) the dam is currently in an elastic state after the last reinforcement; (2) temperature contributes the most to the displacement, and the drastic fluctuation of temperature is the disadvantage factor for multi-arch dam safety; (3) the stresses generally can meet the requirements of code; and (4) the ideas and methods of the study can provide references for the safety evaluation of other concrete dams.

Compressive Strength Estimation of Geopolymer Composites through Novel Computational Approaches

The application of artificial intelligence approaches like machine learning (ML) to forecast material properties is an effective strategy to reduce multiple trials during experimentation. This study performed ML modeling on 481 mixes of geopolymer concrete with nine input variables, including curing time, curing temperature, specimen age, alkali/fly ash ratio, Na₂SiO₃/NaOH ratio, NaOH molarity, aggregate volume, superplasticizer, and water, with CS as the output variable. Four types of ML models were employed to anticipate the compressive strength of geopolymer concrete, and their performance was compared to find out the most accurate ML model. Two individual ML techniques, support vector machine and multi-layer perceptron neural network, and two ensembled ML methods, AdaBoost regressor and random forest, were employed to achieve the study’s aims. The performance of all models was confirmed using statistical analysis, k-fold evaluation, and correlation coefficient (R²). Moreover, the divergence of the estimated outcomes from those of the experimental results was noted to check the accuracy of the models. It was discovered that ensembled ML models estimated the compressive strength of the geopolymer concrete with higher precision than individual ML models, with random forest having the highest accuracy. Using these computational strategies will accelerate the application of construction materials by decreasing the experimental efforts.

An integrated approach based on artificial intelligence and novel meta-heuristic algorithms to predict demand for dairy products: a case study

This research specifically addresses the prediction of dairy product demand (DPD). Since dairy products have a short consumption period, it is important to have accurate information about their future demand. The main contribution of this research is to provide an integrated framework based on statistical tests, time-series neural networks, and improved MLP, ANFIS, and SVR with novel meta-heuristic algorithms in order to obtain the best prediction of DPD in Iran. At first, a series of economic and social indicators that seemed to be effective in the demand for dairy products is identified. Then, the ineffective indices are eliminated by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, and statistically significant variables are determined. Since the regression relation is not able to predict this demand properly, the artificial intelligence tools including MLP, ANFIS, and SVR are implemented and improved with the help of novel meta-heuristic algorithms such as grey wolf optimization (GWO), invasive weed optimization (IWO), cultural algorithm (CA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The designed hybrid method is used to predict the DPD in Iran by using data from 2013 to 2017. The high accurate results confirm that the proposed hybrid methods have the ability to improve the prediction of the demand for various products.

Fault diagnosis of blowout preventer system using artificial neural networks: a comparative study

Purpose

The increasing complexity of industrial systems is at the heart of the development of many fault diagnosis methods. The artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are part of these methods, are widely used in fault diagnosis due to their flexibility and diversification which makes them one of the most appropriate fault diagnosis methods. The purpose of this paper is to detect and locate in real time any parameter deviations that can affect the operation of the blowout preventer (BOP) system using ANNs.

Design/methodology/approach

The starting data are extracted from the tables of the HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability) method where the deviations of the parameters of normal BOP operating (pressure, flow, level and temperature) are associated with an initial rule base for establishing cause and effect of relationships between the causes of deviations and their consequences; these data are used as a database for the neural network. Three ANNs were used, the multi-layer perceptron network (MLPN), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and generalized regression neural networks (GRNN). These models were trained and tested, then, their comparative performances were presented. The respective performances of these models are highlighted following their application to the BOP system.

Findings

The performances of the models are evaluated using determination coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) statistics and time execution. The results of this study show that the RMSE, MAE and R2 values of the GRNN model are better than those corresponding to the RBFN and MLPN models. The GRNN model can be applied with better performance, to establish a diagnostic model that can detect and to identify the different causes of deviations in the parameters of the BOP system.

Originality/value

The performance of the trained network is found to be satisfactory for the real-time fault diagnosis. Therefore, future studies on modeling the BOP system with soft computing techniques can be concentrated on the ANNs. Consequently, with the use of these techniques, the performance of the BOP system can be ensured performing only a limited number of monitoring operations, thus saving engineering effort, time and funds.

An Application of Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and GNSS Data for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

In this study, we used Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data to delineate post-earthquake landslides within an object-based image analysis (OBIA). We used our resulting landslide inventory map for training the data-driven model of the frequency ratio (FR) for landslide susceptibility modelling and mapping considering eleven conditioning factors of soil type, slope angle, distance to roads, distance to rivers, rainfall, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), aspect, altitude, distance to faults, land cover, and lithology. A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) also was used for the susceptibility mapping using expert knowledge. Then, we integrated the data-driven model of the FR with the knowledge-based model of the FAHP to reduce the associated uncertainty in each approach. We validated our resulting landslide inventory map based on 30% of the global positioning system (GPS) points of an extensive field survey in the study area. The remaining 70% of the GPS points were used to validate the performance of the applied models and the resulting landslide susceptibility maps using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Our resulting landslide inventory map got a precision of 94% and the AUCs (area under the curve) of the susceptibility maps showed 83%, 89%, and 96% for the F-AHP, FR, and the integrated model, respectively. The introduced methodology in this study can be used in the application of remote sensing data for landslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in other areas where earthquakes are considered as the main landslide-triggered factor.

A Novel Hybrid Decomposition—Ensemble Prediction Model for Dam Deformation

Accurate and reliable prediction of dam deformation (DD) is of great significance to the safe and stable operation of dams. In order to deal with the fluctuation characteristics in DD for more accurate prediction results, a new hybrid model based on a decomposition-ensemble model named VMD-SE-ER-PACF-ELM is proposed. First, the time series data are decomposed into subsequences with different frequencies and an error sequence (ER) by variational mode decomposition (VMD), and then the secondary decomposition method is introduced into the prediction of ER. In these two decomposition processes, the sample entropy (SE) method is innovatively utilized to determine the decomposition modulus. Then, the input variables of the subsequences are selected by partial autocorrelation analysis (PACF). Finally, the parameter-optimization-based extreme learning machine (ELM) models are used to predict the subsequences, and the outputs are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The case analysis shows that the VMD-SE-ER-PACF-ELM model has strong prediction ability for DD. The model is then compared with other nonlinear and time series models, and its performance under different prediction periods is also analyzed. The results show that the proposed model is able to adequately describe the original DD. It performs well in both training and testing stages. It is a preferred data-driven model for DD prediction and can provide a priori knowledge for health monitoring of dams.

Application of Improved Artificial Intelligence with Runner-Root Meta-Heuristic Algorithm for Dairy Products Industry: A Case Study

As the dairy products have a short consumption period, the accurate prediction of their demand is very important for the dairy industry. Accordingly, this research specifically addresses the prediction of dairy product demand (DPD). The main contribution of this research is to provide an integrated framework based on statistical tests, time-series prediction and artificial intelligence with the runner-root algorithm (RRA) as a novel meta-heuristic algorithm to obtain the best prediction of DPD in Iran. First, a series of economic and social indicators that seemed to be effective in the demand for dairy products are identified and the ineffective indices are eliminated. Next, the artificial intelligence tools including MLP, ANFIS, and LSTM are implemented and improved with the help of RRA. The designed hybrid methods are implemented by using data from 2013 to 2017 of the Iran diary industry. This novel algorithm is compared to gray wolf optimization, invasive weed optimization, and particle swarm optimization. The results show that the proposed MLP-RRA has the most ability to improve by using meta-heuristic algorithms. The coefficient of determination is 98.19%. Moreover, in each artificial intelligence tools, RRA causes better results than the other tested algorithms. The highly accurate results confirm that the proposed hybrid methods based on the RRA algorithm are able to improve the prediction of demand for various products.

Surrogate Neural Network Model for Prediction of Load-Bearing Capacity of CFSS Members Considering Loading Eccentricity

In this study, a surrogate Machine Learning (ML)-based model was developed, to predict the load-bearing capacity (LBC) of concrete-filled steel square hollow section (CFSS) members, considering loading eccentricity. The proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was trained and validated against experimental data using the following error measurement criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), slope of regression, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). A parametric study was conducted to calibrate the parameters of the ANN model, including the number of neurons, activation function, cost function and training algorithm, respectively. The results showed that the ANN model can provide reliable and effective prediction of LBC (R2 = 0.975, Slope = 0.975, RMSE = 294.424 kN and MAE = 191.878 kN). Sensitivity analysis showed that the geometric parameters of the steel tube (width and thickness) and the compressive strength of concrete were the most important variables. Finally, the effect of eccentric loading on the LBC of CFSS members is presented and discussed, showing that the ANN model can assist in the creation of continuous LBC maps, within the ranges of input variables adopted in this study.

Dam Safety Evaluation Based on Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Evidence Theory

Considering the multi-sources, heterogeneity and complexity of dam safety assessment, a dam safety assessment model based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set and evidence theory is proposed to perform dam safety reliability evaluations. In the proposed model, the dynamic reliability based on the supporting degree is applied to modify the data from homologous information. The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set is used to describing the uncertainty and fuzziness between heterogeneous information. Evidence theory is employed to integrate the data from heterogeneous information. Finally, a multiple-arch dam undergoing structural reinforcement is taken as an example. The evaluation result before reinforcement shows that the safety degree of the dam is low and the potential risk is more likely to be located at the dam section #13. From the geological survey before reinforcement, there exist weak fracture zone and broken mud belt in the foundation of the dam section #13. The comparison between the evaluation results before and after reinforcement indicates that the dam become safer and more stable after reinforcement.

Flocculation-dewatering prediction of fine mineral tailings using a hybrid machine learning approach

Polymer-assisted flocculation-dewatering of mineral processing tailings (MPT) is crucial for its environmental disposal. To reduce the number of laboratory experiments, this study proposes a novel and hybrid machine learning (ML) method for the prediction of the flocculation-dewatering performance. The proposed ML method utilizes principle component analysis (PCA) for the dimension-reduction of the input space. Then, ML prediction is performed using the combination of particle swarm optimisation (PSO) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Monte Carlo simulations are used for the converged results. An experimental dataset of 102 data instances is prepared. 17 variables are chosen as inputs and the initial settling rate (ISR) is chosen as the output. Along with the raw dataset, two new datasets are prepared based on the cumulative sum of variance, namely PCA99 with 9 variables and PCA95 with 7 variables. The results show that Monte Carlo simulations need to be performed for over 100 times to reach the converged results. Based on the statistic indicators, it is found that the ML prediction on PCA99 and PCA95 is better than that on the raw dataset (average correlation coefficient is 0.85 for the raw dataset, 0.89 for the PCA99 dataset and 0.88 for the PCA95 dataset). Overall speaking, ML prediction has good prediction performance and it can be employed by the mine site to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness. This study presents a benchmark study for the prediction of ISR, which, with better consolidation and development, can become important tools for analysing and modelling flocculate-settling experiments.

Application of Spatiotemporal Hybrid Model of Deformation in Safety Monitoring of High Arch Dams: A Case Study

As an important feature, deformation analysis is of great significance to ensure the safety and stability of arch dam operation. In this paper, Jinping-I arch dam with a height of 305 m, which is the highest dam in the world, is taken as the research object. The deformation data representation method is analyzed, and the processing method of deformation spatiotemporal data is discussed. A deformation hybrid model is established, in which the hydraulic component is calculated by the finite element method, and other components are still calculated by the statistical model method. Since the relationship among the measuring points is not taken into account and the overall situation cannot be fully reflected in the hybrid model, a spatiotemporal hybrid model is proposed. The measured values and coordinates of all the typical points with pendulums of the arch dam are included in one spatiotemporal hybrid model, which is feasible, convenient, and accurate. The model can predict the deformation of any position on the arch dam. This is of great significance for real-time monitoring of deformation and stability of Jinping-I arch dam and ensuring its operation safety.

A Data-Driven Approach Based on Multivariate Copulas for Quantitative Risk Assessment of Concrete Dam

Risk assessment of dam’s running status is an important part of dam management. A data-driven method based on monitored displacement data has been applied in risk assessment, owing to its easy operation and real-time analysis. However, previous data-driven methods considered displacement data series at each monitoring point as an independent variable and assessed the running status of each monitoring point separately, without considering the correlation between displacement of different monitoring points. In addition, previous studies assessed the dam’s running status qualitatively, without quantifying the risk probability. To solve the above two issues, a displacement-data driven method based on a multivariate copula function is proposed in this paper. Multivariate copula functions can construct a joint distribution which reveals the relevance structure of random variables. We assumed that the risk probability of each dam section is independent and took monitoring points at one dam section as examples. Starting from the risk assessment of single monitoring points, we calculated the residual between the monitored displacement data and the modelled data estimated by the statistical model, and built a risk ratio function based on the residual. Then, using the multivariate copula function, we obtained a combined risk ratio of multi-monitoring points which took the correlation between each monitoring point into account. Finally, a case study was provided. The proposed method not only quantitatively assessed the probability of the real-time dam risk but also considered the correlation between the displacement data of different monitoring points.

Using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and multiple linear regression to estimate orange taste

In this research, some characteristic qualities of orange fruits such as vitamin C and acid content; weight; fruit and skin diameter; and red (R), green (G), and blue (B) values of the RGB color model for 70 samples were used to predict the taste of orange grown in Darab, southeast of Fars Province, Iran, by multiple linear regression (MLR) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To use MLR, firstly the most important input data were selected, and then, the best model to predict the taste of orange was applied. In this research, methodology of ANFIS consisted of selection of dependent orange taste, fuzzification, fuzzy inference rule, membership function, and defuzzification process. The predictive capability of these models was evaluated by various descriptive statistical indicators such as mean square error (MSE) and determination coefficient (R 2). The results showed that the prediction performance of the MLR model has a strong significant relationship between orange taste and vitamin C (0.897**), red color (0.901**), and blue color (0.713*). Also, the results of ANFIS model showed that with low error for train and check data increased the most accuracy for prediction of orange taste. Moreover, the results indicated that the success rate of taste determination for orange is higher by using ANFIS compared to the MLR. This research was to provide valuable information for orange taste.

Improvement of ANFIS Model for Prediction of Compressive Strength of Manufactured Sand Concrete

Use of manufactured sand to replace natural sand is increasing in the last several decades. This study is devoted to the assessment of using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) together with Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) for enhancing the prediction accuracy of individual Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in predicting the compressive strength of manufactured sand concrete (MSC). The PCA technique was applied for reducing the noise in the input space, whereas, TLBO was employed to increase the prediction performance of single ANFIS model in searching the optimal weights of input parameters. A number of 289 configurations of MSC were used for the simulation, especially including the sand characteristics and the MSC long-term compressive strength. Using various validation criteria such as Correlation Coefficient (R), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the proposed method was validated and compared with several models, including individual ANFIS, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and existing empirical equations. The results showed that the proposed model exhibited great prediction capability compared with other models. Thus, it appeared as a robust alternative computing tool or an efficient soft computing technique for quick and accurate prediction of the MSC compressive strength.

Seepage Comprehensive Evaluation of Concrete Dam Based on Grey Cluster Analysis

Most concrete dams have seepage problems to some degree, so it is a common strategy to maintain ongoing monitoring and take timely repair measures. In order to grasp the real operation state of dam seepage, it is vital to analyze the measured data of each monitoring indicator and establish an appropriate prediction equation. However, dam seepage states under the load and environmental influences are very complicated, involving various monitoring indicators and multiple monitoring points of each indicator. For the purpose of maintaining the temporal continuity and spatial correlation of monitoring objects, this paper used a multi-indicator grey clustering analysis model to explore the grey correlation among various indicators, and realized a comprehensive evaluation of a dam seepage state by computation of the clustering coefficient. The case study shows that the proposed method can be successfully applied to the health monitoring of concrete dam seepage.

Basalt Tectonic Discrimination Using Combined Machine Learning Approach

Geochemical discrimination of basaltic magmatism from different tectonic settings remains an essential part of recognizing the magma generation process within the Earth’s mantle. Discriminating among mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), ocean island basalt (OIB) and island arc basalt (IAB) is that matters to geologists because they are the three most concerned basalts. Being a supplement to conventional discrimination diagrams, we attempt to utilize the machine learning algorithm (MLA) for basalt tectonic discrimination. A combined MLA termed swarm optimized neural fuzzy inference system (SONFIS) was presented based on neural fuzzy inference system and particle swarm optimization. Two geochemical datasets of basalts from GEOROC and PetDB served as to test the classification performance of SONFIS. Several typical discrimination diagrams and well-established MLAs were also used for performance comparisons with SONFIS. Results indicated that the classification accuracy of SONFIS for MORB, OIB and IAB in both datasets could reach over 90%, superior to other methods. It also turns out that MLAs had certain advantages in making full use of geochemical characteristics and dealing with datasets containing missing data. Therefore, MLAs provide new research tools other than discrimination diagrams for geologists, and the MLA-based technique is worth extending to tectonic discrimination of other volcanic rocks.

Analysing Stakeholder Consensus for a Sustainable Transport Development Decision by the Fuzzy AHP and Interval AHP

In any public service development decision, it is essential to reach the stakeholders’ agreement to gain a sustainable result, which is accepted by all involved groups. In case this criterion is violated, the impact of the development will be less than expected due to the resistance of one group or another. Concerning public urban transport decisions, the lack of consensus might cause lower utilisation of public vehicles, thus more severe environmental damage, traffic problems and negative economic impacts. This paper aims to introduce a decision support procedure (applying the current MCDM techniques; Fuzzy and Interval AHP) which is capable of analysing and creating consensus among different stakeholder participants in a transport development problem. The combined application of FAHP and IAHP ensures that the consensus creation is not only based on an automated computation process (just as in IAHP) but also on the consideration of specific group interests. Thus, the decision makers have the liberty to express their preferences in urban planning, along with the consideration of numerical results. The procedure has been tested in a real public transport improvement decision as a follow-up project, in an emerging city, Mersin, Turkey. Results show that by the application of the proposed techniques, decision-makers can be more aware of the conflicts of interests among the involved groups, and they can pay more attention to possible violations.

Prediction of Hydropower Generation Using Grey Wolf Optimization Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Hydropower is among the cleanest sources of energy. However, the rate of hydropower generation is profoundly affected by the inflow to the dam reservoirs. In this study, the Grey wolf optimization (GWO) method coupled with an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the hydropower generation. For this purpose, the Dez basin average of rainfall was calculated using Thiessen polygons. Twenty input combinations, including the inflow to the dam, the rainfall and the hydropower in the previous months were used, while the output in all the scenarios was one month of hydropower generation. Then, the coupled model was used to forecast the hydropower generation. Results indicated that the method was promising. GWO-ANFIS was capable of predicting the hydropower generation satisfactorily, while the ANFIS failed in nine input-output combinations.

Soil Salinity Mapping Using SAR Sentinel-1 Data and Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms: A Case Study at Ben Tre Province of the Mekong River Delta (Vietnam)

Soil salinity caused by climate change associated with rising sea level is considered as one of the most severe natural hazards that has a negative effect on agricultural activities in the coastal areas in most tropical climates. This issue has become more severe and increasingly occurred in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. The main objective of this work is to map soil salinity intrusion in Ben Tre province located on the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam using the Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) C-band data combined with five state-of-the-art machine learning models, Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP-NN), Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBF-NN), Gaussian Processes (GP), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forests (RF). For this purpose, 63 soil samples were collected during the field survey conducted from 4–6 April 2018 corresponding to the Sentinel-1 SAR imagery. The performance of the five models was assessed and compared using the root-mean-square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the correlation coefficient (r). The results revealed that the GP model yielded the highest prediction performance (RMSE = 2.885, MAE = 1.897, and r = 0.808) and outperformed the other machine learning models. We conclude that the advanced machine learning models can be used for mapping soil salinity in the Delta areas; thus, providing a useful tool for assisting farmers and the policy maker in choosing better crop types in the context of climate change.