Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

Deep learning-based neural networks for day-ahead power load probability density forecasting

Energy efficiency is crucial to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Electrical overload frequently occurs and causes unwanted outages in distribution networks, which reduces energy utilization efficiency and raises environmental risks endangering public safety. Electrical load, however, has a dynamically fluctuating behavior with notoriously nonlinear hourly, daily, and seasonal patterns. Accurate and reliable load forecasting plays an important role in scheduling power generation processes and preventing electrical systems from overloading; nevertheless, such forecasting is fundamentally challenging, especially under highly variable power load and climate conditions. This study proposed a deep learning-based monotone composite quantile regression neural network (D-MCQRNN) model to extract the multiple non-crossing and nonlinear quantile functions while conquering the drawbacks of error propagation and accumulation encountered in multi-step-ahead probability density forecasting. The constructed models were assessed by an hourly power load series collected at the electric grid center of Henan Province in China in two recent years, along with the corresponding meteorological data collected at 16 monitoring stations. The results demonstrated that the proposed D-MCQRNN model could significantly alleviate the time-lag and biased-prediction phenomena and noticeably improve the accuracy and reliability of multi-step-ahead probability density forecasts on power load. Consequently, the proposed model can significantly reduce the risk and impact of overload faults and effectively promote energy utilization efficiency, thereby mitigating GHG emissions and moving toward cleaner energy production.

Structure Optimization of Academic Disciplines for Universities Featuring Energy under the Roadmap towards Carbon Neutrality: Results from a Hybrid Fuzzy-Based Method

The goal of carbon neutrality is an extensive and profound economic and social change, which will have far-reaching impacts on industrial structure, energy structure, and social consumption structure. Energy sectors will face in-depth adjustment, and it is essential to optimize major structures consequently due to the foresight of talent training. This research first employs Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis, Analytic Network Process (ANP), and the weighted fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) to formulate and analyze the structure optimization of academic disciplines, and finally, the universities featuring mining are taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the method. Results reveal that the integration of ANP, SWOT, and the fuzzy TOPSIS evaluation method is able to qualify the assessment for academic discipline optimization. The specialty structure optimization results should focus on clean, intelligent, and sustainable development of the coal industry. The first priority is to increase relevant research on sustainable development of the mining industry, with a priority value of 0.0435. The modern coal chemistry and intelligent coal mining are also highly valued as the options for achieving carbon neutrality. Adding natural gas-related majors is underestimated as the least recognized priority, with a priority value of 0.0133. Suggestions and implications are provided for structure optimization of academic disciplines in universities featuring energy.

Electric load forecast of long-period rail transit based on fuzzy mathematics

The urban rail transit power supply system is an important part of the urban power distribution network and the power source of the rail transit system. It is responsible for providing safe and reliable electrical energy to urban rail trains and power lighting equipment. This paper processes the obtained long-period rail transit power load learning sample data matrix, according to the principle of normalization processing, effectively eliminates irregular data in the sample set and fills in possible missing data, thereby eliminating bad data or fake data for model learning. Moreover, this avoids the generation of huge errors that cause exponential growth in the model due to the increase in the learning sample size and the irregularity of the data. According to the characteristics of power load, this paper comprehensively considers the influence of temperature and date type on the maximum daily load, applies the fuzzy neural network model to the long-period load forecasting of long-period rail transit, and introduces the whole process of establishing the forecasting model in detail. Through detailed analysis of the actual data provided by the EUNITE network, the relevant factors affecting the daily maximum load were determined, and then the appropriate fuzzy input was selected to establish the corresponding fuzzy neural network prediction model, and a relatively ideal prediction result was obtained. The experimental results fully proved the great potential of fuzzy neural network in long-term power load forecasting.