Usefulness of the CLIP scoring system for prediction of postoperative prognosis of patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma

Systematic review and meta-analysis of validated prognostic models for resected hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Many prognostic models for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) have been developed to inform patients and doctors about individual prognosis. Previous reviews of these models were qualitative and did not assess performance at external validation. We assessed the performance of prognostic models for HCC and set a benchmark for biomarker studies.

METHODS

All externally validated models predicting survival for patients with resected HCC were systematically reviewed. After selection, we extracted descriptive statistics and aggregated c-indices using meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight validated prognostic models were included. Models used on average 7 (IQR:4-9) prognostic factors. Tumor size, tumor number, and vascular invasion were almost always included. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was commonly incorporated since 2007. Recently, the more subjective items ascites and encephalopathy have been dropped. Eight established models performed poor to moderate at external validation, with a pooled C-index below 0.7; including the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition, the Cancer of the Liver Italian (CLIP) Program, and the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score. Out of 24 prognostic models predicting OS, only 6 (25%) had good performance at external validation with pooled C-indices above 0.7; the Li-post (0.77), Li-OS (0.74), Yang-pre (0.74), Yang-post (0.76), Shanghai-score (0.70), and Wang-nomogram (0.71). Models improved over time, but overall performance and study quality remained low.

CONCLUSIONS

Six validated prognostic models demonstrated good performance for predicting survival after resection of HCC. These models can guide patients and doctors and are a benchmark for future models incorporating novel biomarkers.

Tumor-related factors do not influence the prognosis of solitary hepatocellular carcinoma after partial hepatectomy

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Although many factors related to the tumor or the hepatic functional reserve may affect the outcome of partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), these factors have not yet been intensively investigated in patients with solitary HCC. The purpose of this study is to determine the clinicopathological factors influencing the long-term outcomes of partial hepatectomy for solitary HCC.

METHODS

Data on 266 consecutive patients with a solitary HCC who underwent curative hepatectomy between 1997 and 2006 were analyzed with regard to prognosis.

RESULTS

Overall survival rates at 3, 5, and 10 years were 89.5, 79.6, and 56.1%, respectively. The significant independent predictors for overall survival included hepatitis C virus infection, liver cirrhosis, and prolonged prothrombin activity. Disease-free survival rates at 3, 5, and 10 years were 51.7, 41.1, and 20.4%, respectively. The significant independent predictors for disease-free survival included elevated levels of aspartate amino transferase, decreased platelet counts, presence of liver cirrhosis, and prolonged prothrombin activity. Tumor-related factors such as tumor size and microscopic vascular invasion were not significant predictors of overall or disease-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term outcomes of patients with a solitary HCC who underwent partial hepatectomy mainly depended on the background liver status but not on tumor-related factors; this suggests that partial hepatectomy is a remarkably effective antitumor therapy. If the hepatic functional reserve is within the permissible range, partial hepatectomy should be considered as the treatment of choice for patients with a solitary HCC.

A new staging system for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison with six existing staging systems in a large Chinese cohort

PURPOSE

Surgical resection remains the gold standard for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although various staging systems have been developed in recent years, the best tool for staging of HCC remains controversial. The aims of this study were to establish a new staging for patients with HCC undergoing surgical resection and to identify whether this staging is superior to other staging systems in predicting survival of resectable HCC.

METHODS

The subjects of this retrospective study were 958 consecutive HCC patients who underwent surgical resection between 2000 and 2006. Predictors of survival were identified using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox model. The disease state was staged by our proposed Eastern staging system by integrating independent risk predictors, as well as six existing staging systems. The accuracy of prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality for each system was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Macroscopic vascular invasion, multiple tumors, performance status 1-2, microscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic spread, tumor size > 5 cm, albumin < 35 g/L, aspartate aminotransferase > 40 U/L, total bilirubin > 17 μmol/L, and presence of cirrhosis were identified as independent risk factors of survival after resection by multivariate analysis. The comparison of the results of the different staging systems showed that our Eastern staging had the best homogeneity (likelihood ratio χ(2) test 543.51, P < 0.001), monotonicity of gradients (linear trend χ(2) test 414.97, P < 0.001), and discriminatory ability (the highest AUCs for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with other existing staging systems, our proposed Eastern staging system shows a superior predictive ability in a Chinese cohort of patients with resectable HCC, and it can give important prognostic information after surgery.