Model for end-stage liver disease versus the Child-Pugh score in predicting the post-transplant 3-month and 1-year mortality in a cohort of Chinese recipients

Comparison of MELD, Child-Pugh classification, and SOFA for prediction of short-term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure treated with plasm exchange

AIM

To compare the performance of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Pugh classification, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) in predicting short-term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure treated with plasm exchange.

METHODS

Eighty-three patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure treated from January 2015 to December 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, including 39 treated with plasma replacement and 44 treated with non-plasma replacement, were included in this study. MELD, Child-Pugh classification, and SOFA were performed within 24 h of admission. The patients were followed for 12 wk. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of the three systems in predicting short-term prognosis were calculated to evaluate their predictive ability.

RESULTS

At the end of 12 wk, the mortality rate was 30.8% (12/39) in the plasma replacement group and 65.9% (29/44) in the non-plasma replacement group, and there was a significant difference between the two groups (χ² = 10.213, P = 0.002). In the PE group, the AUCs of MELD, Child-Pugh classification, and SOFA were 0.852, 0.836, and 0.708, respectively, and there was no significant difference between any two of the three groups; the accuracy rates were 62.5%, 58.8%, and 50.0%, respectively, and there was also no significant difference between them. In the non-PE group, the AUCs of MELD, Child-Pugh classification, and SOFA were 0.809, 0.768, and 0.699, respectively, and there was no significant difference between any two of the three groups; the accuracy rates were 85.7%, 85.7%, and 84.2%, respectively, and there was also no significant difference between them.

CONCLUSION

The three models have comparable performance in predicting short-term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure treated with plasm exchange.

The MELD score predicts the short-term and overall survival after liver transplantation in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis or autoimmune liver diseases

PURPOSE

Liver transplantation (LT) is well established in patients with autoimmune liver disease. Despite excellent outcomes, organ scarcity demands careful patients' selection and timing of transplantation.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzes data of 79 consecutive patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), and overlap syndrome, undergoing LT between 2001 and 2012. Overall survival (OS) and graft survival were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimate. Multivariate survival analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors by using Cox regression model.

RESULTS

After 59.6-month median follow-up, the 5-year OS and graft survival were 75.3 and 68.8%, respectively. The 5-year survival rates for patients with PSC (n=57), AIH (n=17), and overlap syndrome (n=5) were 76.3, 76.0, and 60.0%. The 90-day mortality rate of 70.0% was significantly higher in patients with a labMELD score≥20 (n=10) compared to 26.1% in 69 patients with a labMELD<20 (p=0.009). A lab Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score≥20 was an independent predictor of impaired OS (p=0.050, hazard ratio 2.5). The 5-year OS was 55.7% in patients with a labMELD score≥20 compared to 84.7% in patients with a labMELD score<20.

CONCLUSION

The recipients' MELD score is a predictor for the short-term outcome after LT in patients with autoimmune liver disease. Meticulous selection for transplant listing remains necessary to safe scarce donor organs.

Serum prealbumin combined with Child-Pugh classification and MELD score for evaluation of liver function in patients with liver cirrhosis

AIM: To evaluate the clinical value of serum prealbumin (PA) in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS: Three hundred and fifty-one patients diagnosed with cirrhosis at our hospital were retrospectively analyzed and followed for 1 year. Each patient's Child-Pugh classification and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were calculated. Child-Pugh classification and MELD score were compared with serum PA combined with Child-Pugh classification and MELD score in evaluating liver function. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate survival at 1 year in patients with liver cirrhosis.

RESULTS: The patients were divided into three groups according to Child-Pugh classification: 111 patients in Child A group, 62 in Child B, and 178 in Child C. In the control group, Child A, Child B and Child C groups, serum PA levels were 261.5 ± 68.7, 152.6 ± 62.7, 70.7 ± 36.9 and 36.2 ± 13.1 mg/L, respectively, which had statistical differences among the four groups (P < 0.05 for all). Of 31 postoperative patients in the Child A group, the mean preoperative serum PA in 24 patients without peritoneal dropsy was 194.0 mg/L ± 56.1 mg/L, and the value in 7 patients with peritoneal dropsy was 123.1 mg/L ±35.4 mg/L (P < 0.05). MELD scores were calculated in 240 patients in the Child B and Child C groups. Compared with MELD score alone, serum PA combined with MELD score was better in predicting survival at 1 year (χ₂²-χ₁² = 8.229 > 3.84, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Serum PA combined with Child-Pugh classification can predict peritoneal dropsy more efficiently. Serum PA combined with MELD score can predict survival results at 1 year more efficiently in patients with Child B and Child C diseases.

Predicting survival after liver transplantation based on pre-transplant MELD score: a systematic review of the literature

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is used to stratify candidates for liver transplantation based on objective measures of disease severity. MELD has been validated as a predictor of wait-list mortality in transplantation candidates and has been postulated as a predictor of post-transplant survival. The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive value of the pre-transplantation MELD score on post-transplant survival from relevant existing studies. A systematic review and critical appraisal was performed using Cochrane guidelines. PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for articles published in the English language since 2005 using a structured search strategy. There were 3058 discrete citations identified and screened for possible inclusion. Any study examining the relationship between pre-transplant MELD and post-transplant survival in the general transplant population was included. Thirty-seven studies met these criteria and were included in the review. Studies were all case series that typically involved stratified analyses of survival by MELD. They represented 15 countries and a total of 53,691 patients. There was significant clinical heterogeneity in patient populations across studies, which precluded performance of a meta-analysis. In 15 studies, no statistically significant association between MELD and post-transplant survival was found. In the remaining 22, some association was found. Eleven studies also measured predictive ability with c-statistics. Values were below 0.7 in all but two studies, suggesting poor predictive value. In summary, while the majority of studies reported an association between pre-transplantation MELD score and post-transplant survival, they represented a low level of evidence. Therefore, their findings should be interpreted conservatively.

Role of pretransplant echocardiographic evaluation in predicting outcomes following liver transplantation

Maintenance of cardiac function is critical to the survival of patients with end-stage liver disease after liver transplantation (LT). We sought to determine whether pre-LT echocardiographic indices of right heart structure and function were independently predictive of morbidity and mortality post-LT. We retrospectively studied 216 consecutive patients who underwent pre-LT 2-dimensional/Doppler echocardiography with subsequent LT from 2007 to 2010. A blinded reader analyzed multiple echocardiographic parameters, including right ventricular structure and function, pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) and the presence and severity of tricuspid regurgitation (TR). On univariate analysis, Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, PASP, presence of ≥mild TR, post-operative renal replacement therapy (RRT) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were found to be significant predictors of adverse outcomes. On multivariate analysis, only ≥mild TR was found to predict both patient mortality (p = 0.0024, HR = 3.91, 95% CI: 1.62-9.44) and graft failure (p = 0.0010, HR = 3.70, 95% CI: 1.70-8.06). PASP and MELD correlated with post-LT intensive care unit length of stay (LOS) and, along with hemodialysis, were associated with hospital LOS and time on ventilator. In conclusion, pre-LT echocardiographic assessments of the right heart may be useful in predicting post-LT morbidity and mortality and guiding the selection of appropriate LT candidates.

Predicting Mortality Across a Broad Spectrum of Liver Disease-An Assessment of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Creatinine-Modified CTP Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) among Indian patients with cirrhosis is uncertain. We studied and compared MELD with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and creatinine-modified-CTP (CrCTP) scores for predicting 1-, 3-, and 6-months mortality.

METHODS

One-hundred and two patients with cirrhosis were studied. The CrCTP was calculated by adding creatinine score of 0, 2 and 4 with creatinine levels of ≤1.2mg/dL, 1.3-1.8 mg/dL and ≥1.9mg/dL, respectively to CTP score. Survival curves were plotted and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare the scores. Predictors of mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Scores of CTP, CrCTP, and MELD have excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting mortality (c-statistics >0.85). The MELD was superior to CTP for predicting 3-months [c-statistic and 95% confidence interval, 0.967 (0.911-0.992) vs 0.884 (0.806-0.939)] and 6-months [0.977 (0.925-0.996) vs 0.908 (0.835-0.956)] mortality (P=0.05), while CrCTP [0.958 (0.899-0.988)] was better than CTP for predicting 3-months mortality (P=0.02). Serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.43, P<0.0001) is a strong independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The MELD accurately predicts mortality in cirrhosis and is better than CTP for predicting the short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Adding serum creatinine to CTP though significantly improves its diagnostic accuracy for short-term mortality; however, it remains lower than MELD alone.

Predictors of patient survival following living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is considered to be the alterative choice in light of the great shortage of cadaveric donors. However, the characteristics of the patients who will benefit from LDLT have not been well identified. The aim of this study was to define the pre- and intra-operative factors that may influence patient outcome.

METHODS

The data from 102 LDLT patients who had operations between 2002 and 2009 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Data were analyzed using uni- and multi-variate analysis according to factors that are known to be associated with outcome in these patients.

RESULTS

Overall, the accurate survival rate of recipients at 1, 3, and 5 years was 84%, 76%, and 70%, respectively. The independent risk factors, preoperative renal dysfunction, intraoperative red blood cell transfusions of greater than 5 units, and female to male match (donor to recipient matching), were identified by Cox regression analysis. The pre-transplant model for end-stage liver disease score and a graft to recipient weight ratio of less than 0.8% were not predictive of outcome. The overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival of patients with one or no risk factors and two or more risk factors were 91%, 86%, and 83% and 67%, 56%, and 47%, respectively (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

In our retrospective study, preoperative renal dysfunction, intraoperative red blood cell transfusions of greater than 5 units, and female to male gender match were independent risk factors for LDLT recipient outcome. Two or more of these risk factors may contribute to poor outcome.