Predictive factors for achieving low disease activity at 52 weeks after switching from tumor necrosis factor inhibitors to abatacept: results from a multicenter observational cohort study of Japanese patients

Abatacept in rheumatoid arthritis: survival on drug, clinical outcomes, and their predictors-data from a large national quality register

BACKGROUND

There are limited data regarding efficacy of abatacept treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) outside clinical trials. Quality registers have been useful for observational studies on tumor necrosis factor inhibition in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical efficacy and tolerability of abatacept in RA, using a national register.

METHODS

RA patients that started abatacept between 2006 and 2017 and were included in the Swedish Rheumatology Quality register (N = 2716) were investigated. Survival on drug was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) good response and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) response (improvement of ≥ 0.3) rates (LUNDEX corrected for drug survival) at 6 and at 12 months were assessed. Predictors of discontinuation were investigated by Cox regression analyses, and predictors of clinical response by logistic regression. Significance-based backward stepwise selection of variables was used for the final multivariate models.

RESULTS

There was a significant difference in drug survival by previous biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD) exposure (p < 0.001), with longer survival in bionaïve patients. Men (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.98) and methotrexate users (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.95) were less likely to discontinue abatacept, whereas a high pain score predicted discontinuation (HR 1.14 per standard deviation, 95% CI 1.07-1.20). The absence of previous bDMARD exposure, male sex, and a low HAQ score were independently associated with LUNDEX-corrected EULAR good response. The absence of previous bDMARD exposure also predicted LUNDEX-corrected HAQ response.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study of RA, bDMARD naïve patients and male patients were more likely to remain on abatacept with a major clinical response.

Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients.

RESULTS

Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment.

SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Early prediction for over two years efficacy of the first biologic agent for polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis: A multi-institutional study in Japan

OBJECTIVE

To estimate target of treatment for long-term efficacy of the first biologic agent used to treat polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pJIA).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of patients with pJIA treated at six medical institutions in Japan between 1 March 2005 and 31 October 2014 was identified. The patients were divided by 2-year treatment periods with the first biologic agent into continuous treatment group and switching group. Three markers were examined: matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and disease activity score (DAS) 28-ESR.

RESULTS

Thirty-two pJIA patients (8 boys, 24 girls) from 43 recruited patients were included in this study. The treatment periods with the first biologic agent in continuous treatment group (24 patients, 75%) was 40 months (median, range 24-119) and switching group (8 patients; 25%) was 9.5 months (median, 6-18). Markers [odds ratio (95% confidence interval)] at 3 months were MMP-3 [1.02 (0.99-1.05), p = .219], ESR [1.00 (0.78-1.30), p = .998], and DAS28-ESR [13.9 (2.08-409.82), p = .035]. The cut-off point for DAS28-ESR at 3 months to distinguish the two groups was 2.49 (sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 87.5%).

CONCLUSION

DAS28-ESR of 2.49 at 3 months after initiating the first biologic agent can be a target of sustained treatment in pJIA patients.