Irrational risk aversion in an ant

Chicks make stochastic decisions based on gain rates of different time constants

The marginal value theorem (MVT) predicts that optimal foragers leave a patch when the instantaneous gain rate decreases to the average long-term gain rate. However, various animals systematically deviate from this optimum by staying too long or overharvesting relative to this optimum. We hypothesised that animals do not represent their optimal stay time but instead determine their departure point probabilistically. To test this hypothesis, we conducted behavioural experiments and modelling using chicks. The chicks ran on a treadmill with feeders on both sides, and their travel time to the feeder was experimentally controlled. As predicted by the MVT, the chicks stayed longer at the feeder when forced to run more. However, they stayed even longer than predicted by the MVT. Therefore, we constructed and compared stochastic decision-making models with the MVT-based model. The stochastic models explained the chicks' behaviour better than the MVT-based model. These results suggest that chicks leave probabilistically based on their immediate foraging history rather than representing an optimal stay time.

A critical review of risk-sensitive foraging

Foraging is risk sensitive if choices depend on the variability of returns from the options as well as their mean return. Risk-sensitive foraging is important in behavioural ecology, psychology and neurophysiology. It has been explained both in terms of mechanisms and in terms of evolutionary advantage. We provide a critical review, evaluating both mechanistic and evolutionary accounts. Some derivations of risk sensitivity from mechanistic models based on psychophysics are not convincing because they depend on an inappropriate use of Jensen's inequality. Attempts have been made to link risk sensitivity to the ecology of a species, but again these are not convincing. The field of risk-sensitive foraging has provided a focus for theoretical and empirical work and has yielded important insights, but we lack a simple and empirically defendable general account of it in either mechanistic or evolutionary terms. However, empirical analysis of choice sequences under theoretically motivated experimental designs and environmental settings appears a promising avenue for mapping the scope and relative merits of existing theories. Simply put, the devil is in the sequence.

Numeracy, gist, literal thinking and the value of nothing in decision making

The onus on the average person is greater than ever before to make sense of large amounts of readily accessible quantitative information, but the ability and confidence to do so are frequently lacking. Many people lack practical mathematical skills that are essential for evaluating risks, probabilities and numerical outcomes such as survival rates for medical treatments, income from retirement savings plans or monetary damages in civil trials. In this Review, we integrate research on objective and subjective numeracy, focusing on cognitive and metacognitive factors that distort human perceptions and foment systematic biases in judgement and decision making. Paradoxically, an important implication of this research is that a literal focus on objective numbers and mechanical number crunching is misguided. Numbers can be a matter of life and death but a person who uses rote strategies (verbatim representations) cannot take advantage of the information contained in the numbers because 'rote' strategies are, by definition, processing without meaning. Verbatim representations (verbatim is only surface form, not meaning) treat numbers as data as opposed to information. We highlight a contrasting approach of gist extraction: organizing numbers meaningfully, interpreting them qualitatively and making meaningful inferences about them. Efforts to improve numerical cognition and its practical applications can benefit from emphasizing the qualitative meaning of numbers in context - the gist - building on the strengths of humans as intuitive mathematicians. Thus, we conclude by reviewing evidence that gist training facilitates transfer to new contexts and, because it is more durable, longer-lasting improvements in decision making.

Bundling and segregation affect pheromone deposition, but not choice, in an ant

Behavioural economists have identified many psychological manipulations which affect perceived value. A prominent example of this is bundling, in which several small gains (or costs) are experienced as more valuable (or costly) than if the same total amount is presented together. While extensively demonstrated in humans, to our knowledge this effect has never been investigated in an animal, let alone an invertebrate. We trained individual Lasius niger workers to two of three conditions in which either costs (travel distance), gains (sucrose reward), or both were either bundled or segregated: (1) both costs and gains bundled, (2) both segregated, and (3) only gains segregated. We recorded pheromone deposition on the ants' return trips to the nest as measure of perceived value. After training, we offer the ants a binary choice between odours associated with the treatments. While bundling treatment did not affect binary choice, it strongly influenced pheromone deposition. Ants deposited c. 80% more pheromone when rewards were segregated but costs bundled as compared with both costs and rewards being bundled. This pattern is further complicated by the pairwise experience each animal made, and which of the treatments it experiences first during training. This demonstrates that even insects are influenced by bundling effects. We propose that the deviation between binary choice and pheromone deposition in this case may be due to a possible linearity in distance perception in ants, while almost all other sensory perception in animals is logarithmic.