Interlinking hare and lynx dynamics using a century’s worth of annual data

Prey choice by a freshwater copepod on larval Aedes mosquitoes in the presence of alternative prey

Predator-prey interactions can have a significant impact on the abundance and distribution of species, but the outcome of these interactions is often context-dependent. In small freshwater habitats, predacious copepods are potential biological control agents for mosquito larvae. Through laboratory experiments, we tested if the presence of a non-mosquito prey (neonate Daphnia pulex) influenced prey selection of the predaceous copepod (Acanthocyclops vernalis) on 1^st instar Aedes mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus). Copepods were starved for 12 h prior to being exposed to the two prey types (larval mosquitoes and Daphnia) at three densities: 25 mosquitoes:75 Daphnia, 50 mosquitoes:50 Daphnia, 75 mosquitoes:25 Daphnia. Single prey choice trials for each species as well as no-predator trials were also established for controls. Copepods were effective predators, with a single copepod consuming up to 37 1^st instar mosquito larvae during the 24-h trials. The number of mosquitoes consumed increased with their relative density, but the proportion of mosquitoes consumed was highest when Aedes made up only 25% of the population. Results from our study show that in a simple predator/two-prey system, two species of larval mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) are preferentially consumed over an alternative zooplankton by the copepod predator Acanthocyclops vernalis.

Multiple thresholds and trajectories of microbial biodiversity predicted across browning gradients by neural networks and decision tree learning

Ecological association studies often assume monotonicity such as between biodiversity and environmental properties although there is growing evidence that nonmonotonic relations dominate in nature. Here, we apply machine-learning algorithms to reveal the nonmonotonic association between microbial diversity and an anthropogenic-induced large-scale change, the browning of freshwaters, along a longitudinal gradient covering 70 boreal lakes in Scandinavia. Measures of bacterial richness and evenness (alpha-diversity) showed nonmonotonic trends in relation to environmental gradients, peaking at intermediate levels of browning. Depending on the statistical methods, variables indicative for browning could explain 5% of the variance in bacterial community composition (beta-diversity) when applying standard methods assuming monotonic relations and up to 45% with machine-learning methods taking non-monotonicity into account. This non-monotonicity observed at the community level was explained by the complex interchangeable nature of individual taxa responses as shown by a high degree of nonmonotonic responses of individual bacterial sequence variants to browning. Furthermore, the nonmonotonic models provide the position of thresholds and predict alternative bacterial diversity trajectories in boreal freshwater as a result of ongoing climate and land-use changes, which in turn will affect entire ecosystem metabolism and likely greenhouse gas production.

Lynx canadensis (Carnivora: Felidae)

 Lynx canadensis Kerr, 1792, commonly called the Canada lynx, is a medium size felid and is the second largest of the four species in the genus Lynx. It is distributed throughout the boreal forest of most of Canada and Alaska and across portions of the northern United States. It prefers dense, regenerating coniferous forests with moderate canopy and understory cover. L. canadensis is a snowshoe hare specialist, and its ecology, morphology, and behavior closely reflect that of its main prey. It is listed as “Least Concern” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, is on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, and its population size trend is considered stable. However, the status of United States subpopulations, being largely peripheral to the Canadian population, is more tenuous and the species is protected.

A Study of Population Size and Activity Patterns and Their Relationship to the Prey Species of the Eurasian Lynx Using a Camera Trapping Approach

Revealing the behavioral relationships between predators and their prey is fundamental in understanding the community structure and ecosystem functions of such animals. This study aimed at detecting the population size and activity patterns of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) (along with its prey) by camera trapping monitoring from 2014 to 2017 at the Saihanwula nature reserve in central Inner Mongolia. The total effective trapping days were 29,892 and 20 lynx were identified from 343 trapping photos based on the inner side patterns of their forelimbs. The daily activity rhythms of the lynx overlapped with those of different prey in different seasons. The yearly activity pattern of the lynx was influenced by its main prey's biology. In conclusion, this study reveals that the activity patterns of the top predator matched those of its prey in different time periods. Habitat management strategies promoting the restoration of prey communities would benefit the lynx in maintaining a stable community structure.

Predator-prey feedback in a gyrfalcon-ptarmigan system?

Specialist predators with oscillating dynamics are often strongly affected by the population dynamics of their prey, yet they are not always the cause of prey cycling. Only those that exert strong (delayed) regulation of their prey can be. Inferring predator-prey coupling from time series therefore requires contrasting models with top-down versus bottom-up predator-prey dynamics. We study here the joint dynamics of population densities of the Icelandic gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus, and its prey, the rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta. The dynamics of both species are likely not only linked to each other but also to stochastic weather variables acting as confounding factors. We infer the degree of coupling between populations, as well as forcing by abiotic variables, using multivariate autoregressive models MAR(p), with p = 1 and 2 time lags. MAR(2) models, allowing for species to cycle independently from each other, further suggest alternative scenarios where a cyclic prey influences its predator but not the other way around (i.e., bottom-up scenarios). The classical MAR(1) model predicts that the time series exhibit predator-prey feedback (i.e., reciprocal dynamic influence between prey and predator), and that weather effects are weak and only affecting the gyrfalcon population. Bottom-up MAR(2) models produced a better fit but less realistic cross-correlation patterns. Simulations of MAR(1) and MAR(2) models further demonstrate that the top-down MAR(1) models are more likely to be misidentified as bottom-up dynamics than vice versa. We therefore conclude that predator-prey feedback in the gyrfalcon-ptarmigan system is likely the main cause of observed oscillations, though bottom-up dynamics cannot yet be excluded with certainty. Overall, we showed how to make more out of ecological time series by using simulations to gauge the quality of model identification, and paved the way for more mechanistic modeling of this system by narrowing the set of important biotic and abiotic drivers.

An Inverse Problem: Trappers Drove Hares to Eat Lynx

The Canadian lynx and snowshoe hare pelt data by the Hudson Bay Company did not fit the classical predator-prey theory. Rather than following the peak density of the hare, that of the lynx leads it, creating the hares-eat-lynx (HEL) paradox. Although trappers were suspected to play a role, no mathematical model has ever demonstrated the HEL effect. Here we show that the long-held assumption that the pelt number is a proxy of the wild populations is false and that when the data are modeled by the harvest rates by the trappers, the problem is finally resolved: both the HEL paradox and the classical theory are unified in our mechanistic hare-lynx-competitor-trapper (HLCT) model where competitor stands for all predators of the hares other than the lynx. The result is obtained by systematically fitting the data to various models using Newton's inverse problem method. Main findings of this study include: the prey-eats-predator paradox in kills by an intraguild top-predator can occur if the top-predator prefers the predator to the prey; the benchmark HLCT model is more sensitive to all lynx-trapper interactions than to the respective hare-trapper interactions; the Hudson Bay Company's hare pelt number maybe under-reported; and, the most intriguing of all, the trappers did not interfere in each other's trapping activities.

How are species interactions structured in species-rich communities? A new method for analysing time-series data

Estimation of intra- and interspecific interactions from time-series on species-rich communities is challenging due to the high number of potentially interacting species pairs. The previously proposed sparse interactions model overcomes this challenge by assuming that most species pairs do not interact. We propose an alternative model that does not assume that any of the interactions are necessarily zero, but summarizes the influences of individual species by a small number of community-level drivers. The community-level drivers are defined as linear combinations of species abundances, and they may thus represent e.g. the total abundance of all species or the relative proportions of different functional groups. We show with simulated and real data how our approach can be used to compare different hypotheses on community structure. In an empirical example using aquatic microorganisms, the community-level drivers model clearly outperformed the sparse interactions model in predicting independent validation data.